by Nic Lewis
In a recent article I set out why I thought that the trend in ΔAPOClimate was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated, in the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake study. In this article I expand on the brief explanation of the points made about “trend errors” and “scale systematic errors” given in my original article, as these are key issues involved in estimating the trend in ΔAPOClimate and its uncertainty.
Posted in Oceans
by Nic Lewis
Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading
Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty
by Nic Lewis
A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights statements in SR15 relating to carbon emission budgets for meeting the 1.5°C and 2°C targets.
It seems fairly extraordinary to me that the AR5 post-2010 carbon budget for 1.5°C, which was only published four years ago, has in effect been now been increased by ~700 GtCO2 – equal to 21st century emissions to date – despite SR15’s projections of future warming being based very largely on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) range exhibited by the models used in AR5. Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC
by Judith Curry
On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C is now published [link].
Posted in IPCC
by Patrick J. Michaels
We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
“Impending massive hurricanes bring the best out of weather twitter and the worst out of climate twitter” – Joseph Maykut
Posted in Hurricanes
by Ross McKitrick
I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.
Posted in climate models
Posted in Attribution
By Nic Lewis
A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”- Charles Manski
Posted in Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
by Javier
Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows they depend on obliquity-linked summer energy, ice-volume, and eccentricity, and they end at glacial inception after ~ 6000 years of Neoglaciation-type temperature decline. The lag between orbital forcing and ice volume change indicates the orbital threshold for glacial inception is crossed thousands of years before glacial inception, and the Holocene went through that threshold long ago. In the absence of sufficient anthropogenic forcing glacial inception should take place in 1500-2500 years. The long interglacial hypothesis rests on the wrong astronomical parameter, high-equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2, and uncertain model predictions of very long-tailed CO2decay. It is not possible to determine at present if a glacial inception will take place over the next millennia. The precautionary principle indicates we should prepare for that eventuality as it would constitute the worst catastrophe humankind has ever faced.
Posted in Prediction
by Judith Curry
We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
by Ross McKitrick and John Christy
Note: this is a revised version to correct the statement about CFCs and methane in Scenario B.
How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR article forecasts of global warming? According to a laudatory article by AP’s Seth Borenstein, they “pretty much” came true, with other scientists claiming their accuracy was “astounding” and “incredible.” Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue in the Wall Street Journal, and Calvin Beisner in the Daily Caller, disputed this.
Posted in Prediction
by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic
Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system.
Posted in climate models
by Judith Curry
A discussion thread to ponder the uncertainties in glacial isostatic adjustment and the implications for past and future sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans
by Judith Curry
My presentation is provided here. This is being posted at the start of the event.
Posted in Communication, Skeptics
by Judith Curry
Countdown to the ‘conversation’ between Mann, Titley, Moore, Curry. Looks like you can now register for the live broadcast, for a fee of $10 [link].
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
My new talk on improving seasonal to interannual climate predictions.
Posted in Prediction
by Judith Curry
This is rather astonishing, kudos to Best Schools for putting this together.
Posted in Skeptics
