Category Archives: Attribution

Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper

by Ross McKitrick

Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. This, they point out, is the “gold standard” of proof in particle physics, even invoking for comparison the Higgs boson discovery in their Supplementary information.

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Early 20th century global warming

by Judith Curry

A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.  Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.

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Beyond Milankovitch

by Donald Rapp

On the terminations of Ice Ages.

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Fundamental disagreement about climate change

by Judith Curry

How can the fundamental disagreement about the causes of climate change be most effectively communicated?

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise is too little, too late, and too linear. – Walter Munk

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What are the main sources of heat that account for the incremental rise in temperature on Earth?

by Judith Curry

Suggestions for the climate ‘red team’ response.

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Will advances in groundwater science force a paradigm shift in sea level rise attribution?

by Jim Steele

 A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and thermal expansion.

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