by Judith Curry
A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling during this period.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Solar, Uncertainty
by Ross McKitrick
Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
By Nic Lewis
In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy available here). I wrote that I would defer dealing with the differences between observed and CMIP5 model-simulated historical warming, which formed the basis of CJ20’s numerical analysis, until a subsequent article. I now do so. Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity
By Nic Lewis
A comment on LC18 (recent paper by Lewis and Curry on climate sensitivity) by Cowtan and Jacobs has been published, along with our response.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
By Nic Lewis
The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading or definitely incorrect.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity, regression, statistics
