Category Archives: Sensitivity & feedbacks

Updated climate sensitivity estimates

by Nic Lewis

An update to the calculations in Lewis and Curry (2014).

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On inappropriate use of least squares regression

by Greg Goodman

Inappropriate use of linear regression can produce spurious and significantly low estimations of the true slope of a linear relationship if both variables have significant measurement error or other perturbing factors. This is precisely the case when attempting to regress modelled or observed radiative flux against surface temperatures in order to estimate sensitivity of the climate system. Continue reading

Are land + sea temperature averages meaningful?

by Greg Goodman

Several of the major datasets that claim to represent “global average surface temperature” are directly or effectively averaging land air temperatures with sea surface temperatures.

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Huge efficacy of land use forcing in one GISS-E2-R simulation: is an ocean model error involved?

by Nic Lewis

In a recent article here, which summarised a longer piece at ClimateAudit, I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations of changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are biased low.

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Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

by Nicholas Lewis

Different agents may have effects on global temperature (GMST) different to those which would be expected simply by reference to the radiative forcing they exert. This difference is encapsulated in the term “forcing efficacy”.

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Global Temperature Trends After Detrending with the AMO

by Craig Loehle

This is a short summary of my new paper Global Temperature Trends Adjusted for Unforced Variability.

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How sensitive is global temperature to cumulative CO2 emissions?

by Nic Lewis

The mean carbon cycle behaviour of CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs may be quite unrealistic.

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