The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes. Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested a critique of this report.
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified new early precursors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity that involve systematic, repeating interactions among ENSO, stratospheric circulations and regional North Atlantic processes.
The good news: the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is over. The bad news: it was an extremely active season, with substantial damage in the U.S. and the Caribbean islands. What caused this extremely active hurricane season, and was it foreseeable?
The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas. Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts.
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
“The results show that the extreme sea levels observed during Hurricane Katrina will become ten times more likely if average global temperatures increase by 2°C”, said Dr Jevrejeva. That would mean a storm surge of Katrina proportions every other year. – Alex Kirby