Category Archives: Data and observations

Hansen’s latest overheated global warming claims are based on poor science

Posted on November 6, 2023 by niclewis | 129 comments

James Hansen’s latest paper “Global warming in the pipeline” (Hansen et al. (2023)) has already been heavily criticized in a lengthy comment by Michael Mann, author of the original IPCC ‘hockey stick’. However Mann does not deal with Hansen’s surprisingly high (4.8°C) new estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)[1]. This ECS estimate is 60% above Hansen’s longstanding[2] previous estimate of 3°C. It is Hansen’s new, very high ECS estimate drives, in conjunction with various questionable subsidiary assumptions, his paper’s dire predictions of high global warming and its more extreme concluding policy recommendations, such as ‘solar radiation management’ geoengineering.

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Posted in Data and observations, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized

Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity, Data and observations

Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part II

Posted on June 25, 2020 by curryja | 9 comments

by Roland Hirsch

New technologies in mass spectrometry are advancing research in climate science

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Posted in Data and observations

Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

Posted on November 23, 2018 by niclewis | 47 comments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading →

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

Posted on November 17, 2018 by niclewis | 47 comments

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O₂/N₂ ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPO_Obs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPO_Climate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPO_Climate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPO_Climate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading →

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

Posted on November 6, 2018 by niclewis | 410 comments

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading →

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

The Rise and Fall of Central England Temperatures: Part II

Posted on March 3, 2018 by curryja | 140 comments

by Tony Brown

This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century

Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America
Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this
Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate.
Notes considerable English seasonal variability over the centuries
Examines the key component parts of the weather that affect the British Isles
Queries whether wind direction, strength and longevity are major factors in shaping our climate over the centuries.

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Posted in Attribution, Data and observations, History

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part IV – Satellite era record

Posted on February 17, 2018 by curryja | 207 comments

by Judith Curry

Part IV of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise focuses on the satellite era (since 1993), including the recent causes of sea level variations and arguments regarding the acceleration (or not) of recent sea level rise.

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Posted in Data and observations, Oceans

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part III – 19th & 20th century observations

Posted on February 10, 2018 by curryja | 95 comments

By Judith Curry

“We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Munk

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Posted in Data and observations, Oceans

Nature Unbound IV – The 2400 Bray cycle. Part C

Posted on August 7, 2017 by curryja | 413 comments

by Javier

A possible mechanism for the effect of solar variability on climate, whereby solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.

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Posted in Adaptation, Data and observations

Nature Unbound IV – The 2400-year Bray cycle. Part B

Posted on July 16, 2017 by curryja | 207 comments

by Javier

In Part A, we established the existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray. This climate cycle correlates in period and phase with a ~ 2400-year cycle in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, that corresponds with clusters of solar grand minima at times of abrupt cooling and climate deterioration. The relationship between solar activity and cosmogenic isotope production during the past centuries confirms the ~ 2400-year solar cycle as the origin of the climate cycle.

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Posted in Data and observations

Nature Unbound IV – The 2400-year Bray cycle. Part A

Posted on July 11, 2017 by curryja | 136 comments

By Javier

The existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray, is supported by abundant evidence from vegetation changes, glacier re-advances, atmospheric changes reflected in alterations in wind patterns, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, drift ice abundance, and changes in precipitation and temperature. This is established with proxy records from many parts of the world.

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Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Nature Unbound III – Holocene climate variability (Part B)

Posted on May 28, 2017 by curryja | 318 comments

by Javier

The Neoglacial has been a period of progressive cooling, increasing aridity, and advancing glaciers, culminating in the Little Ice Age. The main Holocene climatic cycle of ~ 2400 years delimits periods of more stable climatic conditions which were identified over a century ago. The stable periods are punctuated by abrupt changes.

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Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Nature Unbound III: Holocene climate variability (Part A)

Posted on April 30, 2017 by curryja | 335 comments

by Javier

First in a two part series on Holocene climate variability.

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Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Response to critiques: Climate scientists versus climate data

Posted on February 6, 2017 by curryja | 803 comments

by Judith Curry

Not surprisingly, John Bates’ blog post and David Rose’s article in the Mail on Sunday have been receiving some substantial attention.

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Posted in Data and observations, Ethics

Climate scientists versus climate data

Posted on February 4, 2017 by curryja | 761 comments

by John Bates

A look behind the curtain at NOAA’s climate data center.

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Posted in Data and observations, Ethics

A case study of the Northern Colorado Front Range temperature history

Posted on January 20, 2017 by curryja | 127 comments

by Monte Naylor

A comparison of NOAA-computed temperature trends with the “raw” historical temperature data.

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Posted in Data and observations

Uncertainties in sea surface temperatures

Posted on January 4, 2017 by curryja | 295 comments

by Judith Curry

Two new papers have focused on the quality, uncertainties and interpretation of global sea surface temperature data.

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Posted in Data and observations, Oceans

On the Decrease of Hot Days in the US

Posted on December 16, 2016 by curryja | 123 comments

by Turbulent Eddie

Adjusted USHCN data indicate a decrease in CONUS hot days TMAX >= 100°F

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Posted in Data and observations

Tamino’s adjusted temperature records and the TCR

Posted on October 26, 2016 by curryja | 215 comments

by Frank Bosse

Separating out the impacts of internal variability on evaluations of TCR.

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Posted in Data and observations, Sensitivity & feedbacks

The value of very long instrumental data series

Posted on October 10, 2016 by curryja | 133 comments

by Alan Longhurst

Because the climate change science community habitually concentrates attention on surface data from a very short recent period – nominally a little more than 100 years – it would be very interesting to know how the pattern habitually derived from these data compares with longer data archives that have been processed independently by the observing nations.

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Posted in Data and observations

Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

Posted on August 1, 2016 by curryja | 161 comments

By Judith Curry

It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. – Cederlof, Bengtsson, Hodges

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Posted in Data and observations

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program

Posted on July 28, 2016 by curryja | 88 comments

by Judith Curry

The first 20 years.

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Posted in climate models, Data and observations, Sensitivity & feedbacks

End of the satellite data warming pause?

Posted on March 6, 2016 by curryja | 383 comments

by Judith Curry

Ted Cruz’s favorite temperature data set just got a lot hotter.

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Posted in Data and observations

Are land + sea temperature averages meaningful?

Posted on February 10, 2016 by curryja | 371 comments

by Greg Goodman

Several of the major datasets that claim to represent “global average surface temperature” are directly or effectively averaging land air temperatures with sea surface temperatures.

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Posted in Data and observations, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Assessing U.S. temperature adjustments using the Climate Reference Network

Posted on February 9, 2016 by curryja | 244 comments

by Zeke Hausfather

Measuring temperatures in the U.S. no easy task. While we have mostly volunteer-run weather station data from across the country going back to the late 1800s, these weather stations were never set up to consistently monitor long-term changes to the climate.

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Posted in Data and observations