Category Archives: Data and observations

Hansen’s latest overheated global warming claims are based on poor science

James Hansen’s latest paper “Global warming in the pipeline” (Hansen et al. (2023)) has already been heavily criticized in a lengthy comment by Michael Mann, author of the original IPCC ‘hockey stick’. However Mann does not deal with Hansen’s surprisingly high (4.8°C) new estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)[1]. This ECS estimate is 60% above Hansen’s longstanding[2] previous estimate of 3°C. It is Hansen’s new, very high ECS estimate drives, in conjunction with various questionable subsidiary assumptions, his paper’s dire predictions of high global warming and its more extreme concluding policy recommendations, such as ‘solar radiation management’ geoengineering.

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Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part II

by Roland Hirsch

New technologies in mass spectrometry are advancing research in climate science

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Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPOObs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPOClimate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPOClimate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPOClimate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading

The Rise and Fall of Central England Temperatures: Part II

by Tony Brown

This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century

  • Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America
  • Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this
  • Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate.
  • Notes considerable English seasonal variability over the centuries
  • Examines the key component parts of the weather that affect the British Isles
  • Queries whether wind direction, strength and longevity are major factors in shaping our climate over the centuries.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part IV – Satellite era record

by Judith Curry

Part IV of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise focuses on the satellite era (since 1993), including the recent causes of sea level variations and arguments regarding the acceleration (or not) of recent sea level rise.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part III – 19th & 20th century observations

By Judith Curry

We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Munk 

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Nature Unbound IV – The 2400 Bray cycle. Part C

by Javier

A possible mechanism for the effect of solar variability on climate, whereby solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.

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Nature Unbound IV – The 2400-year Bray cycle. Part B

by Javier

In Part A, we established the existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray. This climate cycle correlates in period and phase with a ~ 2400-year cycle in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, that corresponds with clusters of solar grand minima at times of abrupt cooling and climate deterioration. The relationship between solar activity and cosmogenic isotope production during the past centuries confirms the ~ 2400-year solar cycle as the origin of the climate cycle.

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Nature Unbound IV – The 2400-year Bray cycle. Part A

By Javier

The existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray, is supported by abundant evidence from vegetation changes, glacier re-advances, atmospheric changes reflected in alterations in wind patterns, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, drift ice abundance, and changes in precipitation and temperature. This is established with proxy records from many parts of the world.

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Nature Unbound III – Holocene climate variability (Part B)

by Javier

The Neoglacial has been a period of progressive cooling, increasing aridity, and advancing glaciers, culminating in the Little Ice Age. The main Holocene climatic cycle of ~ 2400 years delimits periods of more stable climatic conditions which were identified over a century ago. The stable periods are punctuated by abrupt changes.

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Nature Unbound III: Holocene climate variability (Part A)

by Javier

First in a two part series on Holocene climate variability.

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Response to critiques: Climate scientists versus climate data

by Judith Curry

Not surprisingly, John Bates’ blog post and David Rose’s article in the Mail on Sunday have been receiving some substantial attention.

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Climate scientists versus climate data

by John Bates

A look behind the curtain at NOAA’s climate data center.

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A case study of the Northern Colorado Front Range temperature history

by Monte Naylor

A comparison of NOAA-computed temperature trends with the “raw” historical temperature data.

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Uncertainties in sea surface temperatures

by Judith Curry

Two new papers have focused on the quality, uncertainties and  interpretation of global sea surface temperature data.

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On the Decrease of Hot Days in the US

by Turbulent Eddie

Adjusted USHCN data indicate a decrease in CONUS hot days TMAX >= 100°F

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Tamino’s adjusted temperature records and the TCR

by Frank Bosse

Separating out the impacts of internal variability on evaluations of TCR.

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The value of very long instrumental data series

by Alan Longhurst

Because the climate change science community habitually concentrates attention on surface data from a very short recent period – nominally a little more than 100 years – it would be very interesting to know how the pattern habitually derived from these data compares with longer data archives that have been processed independently by the observing nations.

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Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

By Judith Curry

It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. – Cederlof, Bengtsson, Hodges

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Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program

by Judith Curry

The first 20 years.

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End of the satellite data warming pause?

by Judith Curry

Ted Cruz’s favorite temperature data set just got a lot hotter.

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Are land + sea temperature averages meaningful?

by Greg Goodman

Several of the major datasets that claim to represent “global average surface temperature” are directly or effectively averaging land air temperatures with sea surface temperatures.

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Assessing U.S. temperature adjustments using the Climate Reference Network

by Zeke Hausfather

Measuring temperatures in the U.S. no easy task. While we have mostly volunteer-run weather station data from across the country going back to the late 1800s, these weather stations were never set up to consistently monitor long-term changes to the climate.

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