Category Archives: Prediction

RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

by Judith Curry

Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.

Continue reading

Cool first, warm later

by Judith Curry

From an article in the New Scientist by Fred Pearce, written in Sept 2009:

One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

“I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”

Continue reading

The weatherman is not a moron

by Judith Curry

Why are weather forecasters succeeding when other predictors fail? It’s because long ago they came to accept the imperfections in their knowledge. – Nate Silver

Continue reading

Trends, change points & hypotheses

by Judith Curry

Jonathan Leake asks in the Sunday Times: “Why has it warmed so much less than the IPCC predicted?

Continue reading

Climate scenarios: 2015-2050

by Judith Curry

Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment

Continue reading

Climate models as ink blots

by Judith Curry

From Roger Pielke Jr.:  A fundamental problem with climate science in the public realm, as conventionally practiced by the IPCC, is the essential ink blot nature of its presentation. By “ink blot” I mean that there is literally nothing that could occur in the real world that would allow those who are skeptical of scientific claims to revise their views due to unfolding experience. That is to say, anything that occurs with respect to the climate on planet earth is “consistent with” projections made by the climate science community. 

Continue reading

Anticipating the Climate Black Swan

by Judith Curry

I just received the reviews on the manuscript I submitted to special issue of the journal Climatic Change, entitled “Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty.”  Overall, the review was pretty mild.  One comment from the editor was about my paragraph that mentioned “black swans.”

Continue reading