Category Archives: Prediction

The Hansen forecasts 30 years later

by Ross McKitrick and John Christy

Note: this is a revised version to correct the statement about CFCs and methane in Scenario B.

How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR article forecasts of global warming? According to a laudatory article by AP’s Seth Borenstein, they “pretty much” came true, with other scientists claiming their accuracy was “astounding” and “incredible.”  Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue in the Wall Street Journal, and Calvin Beisner in the Daily Caller, disputed this.

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Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change

by Javier

A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

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Beyond ENSO: new signals of seasonal to interannual predictability

by Judith Curry

My new talk on improving seasonal to interannual climate predictions.

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ENSO forecast for 2018

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

Attempting to breach the ENSO springtime  ‘predictability barrier.’

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RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

by Judith Curry

Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.

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Cool first, warm later

by Judith Curry

From an article in the New Scientist by Fred Pearce, written in Sept 2009:

One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

“I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”

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The weatherman is not a moron

by Judith Curry

Why are weather forecasters succeeding when other predictors fail? It’s because long ago they came to accept the imperfections in their knowledge. – Nate Silver

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