Category Archives: Scientific method

Important new paper challenges IPCC’s claims about climate sensitivity

Posted on September 20, 2022 by | 185 comments

by Nic Lewis

Official estimates of future global warming may be overstated.

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185 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized

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What the pandemic has taught us about science

Posted on October 10, 2020 by | 285 comments

The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray

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285 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Posted on August 19, 2020 by | 65 comments

By Nic Lewis

This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to have raised the issue that I focus on here. Continue reading →

65 Comments

Posted in climate models, Scientific method, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Truth(?) in testimony and convincing policy makers

Posted on June 27, 2019 by | 155 comments

by Judith Curry

Some reflections, stimulated by yesterday’s Congressional Hearing, on the different strategies of presenting Congressional testimony.

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155 Comments

Posted in Politics, Scientific method, Sociology of science

Climate science’s ‘masking bias’ problem

Posted on June 21, 2019 by | 117 comments

by Judith Curry

How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports.  And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate science.

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117 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Climate scientists’ motivated reasoning

Posted on June 19, 2019 by | 147 comments

by Judith Curry

Insights into the motivated reasoning of climate scientists, including my own efforts to sort out my own biases and motivated reasoning following publication of the Webster et al. (2005) paper

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147 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

Posted on October 11, 2018 by | 330 comments

by Judith Curry

On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

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330 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report

Posted on August 20, 2017 by | 319 comments

by Judith Curry

Calling on CE Denizens to review the Climate Science Special Report:  nominate an official reviewer, or participate in the CE Crowdsourced Review.

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319 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Reviewing the CCSR: Discussion thread

Posted on August 20, 2017 by | 119 comments

by Judith Curry

This post is running parallel to the post Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report (a technical post), to accommodate general discussion on the topic

119 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Nye’s Quadrant

Posted on May 2, 2017 by | 521 comments

by Judith Curry

The scary emergence of Nye’s Quadrant in dominating the public discourse on climate change.

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521 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

A ‘Red Team’ Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science

Posted on April 21, 2017 by | 411 comments

by Judith Curry

Put the ‘consensus’ to a test, and improve public understanding, though an open and adversarial process. – Steve Koonin

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411 Comments

Posted in Policy, Scientific method

Discussion thread: reactions to House Hearing

Posted on April 15, 2017 by | 461 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate Feedback has interviewed a number of scientists regarding the recent House Hearing on climate science.

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461 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Science needs reason to be trusted

Posted on April 5, 2017 by | 243 comments

by Judith Curry

Two excellent articles about science, facts, and post-factualism.

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243 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

House Science Committee Hearing

Posted on March 29, 2017 by | 502 comments

by Judith Curry

My testimony at the House Science Committee Hearing on Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method.

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502 Comments

Posted in Policy, Scientific method

Advocacy research, incentives and the practice of science

Posted on October 27, 2016 by | 98 comments

by Judith Curry

There is a problem with the practice of science. Because of poor scientific practices, and improper incentives, few papers with useful scientific findings are published in leading journals. The problem appears to be growing due to funding for advocacy research.

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98 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

The Denialism Frame

Posted on April 21, 2016 by | 641 comments

by Andy West

An inadequately testable and inappropriate framing.

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641 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Skeptics

Insights from Karl Popper: how to open the deadlocked climate debate

Posted on January 28, 2016 by | 654 comments

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website.

Many factors have frozen the public policy debate on climate change, but none more important than the disinterest of both sides in tests that might provide better evidence — and perhaps restart the discussion. Even worse, too little thought has been given to the criteria for validating climate science theories (aka their paradigm) and the models build upon them.

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654 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Scientific method

On distinguishing disbelief and nonbelief

Posted on January 9, 2016 by | 401 comments

by Judith Curry

It is important to distinguish between disbelief and nonbelief– between believing a sentence is false and merely not believing it true. 

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401 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Skeptics, Sociology of science

How scientists fool themselves – and how they can stop

Posted on October 14, 2015 by | 259 comments

“Science is an ongoing race between our inventing ways to fool ourselves, and our inventing ways to avoid fooling ourselves.” – Saul Perlmutter

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259 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity

Posted on August 12, 2015 by | 168 comments

by Judith Curry

If you think about the costs I’ll pay for raising these concerns, including the cost of damaged relationships with people that I like, I think you will conclude that a personal commitment to science is the only thing that could be big enough to offset these costs. – Paul Romer

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168 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Scientific method

The method of multiple working hypotheses

Posted on May 21, 2015 by | 232 comments

by Judith Curry

With this method the dangers of parental affection for a favorite theory can be circumvented. – T.C. Chamberlin

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232 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

What would Charles Keeling think? Science in spite of politics

Posted on January 13, 2015 by | 466 comments

by Judith Curry

Perhaps my experience in studying the Earth, initially with few restrictions and later with increasingly sophisticated interaction with government sponsors and various planning committees, will provide a perspective on this great transition from science being primarily an intellectual pastime of private persons to its present status as a major contributor to the quality of human life and the prosperity of nations. – Charles Keeling

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466 Comments

Posted in History, Scientific method, Sociology of science

Sagan’s baloney detection rules

Posted on November 9, 2014 by | 404 comments

by Judith Curry

On this 80th anniversary of Carl Sagan’s birthday.

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404 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Words of wisdom from Charles Lyell

Posted on October 14, 2014 by | 288 comments

by Judith Curry

We are also told of general catastrophes and a succession of deluges, of the alternation of periods of repose and disorder, of the refrigeration of the globe, and of the sudden annihilation of whole races of animals and plants, and other hypotheses, in which we see the ancient spirit of speculation revived, and a desire manifested to cut, rather than patiently to untie, the Gordian knot. – Charles Lyell

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288 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Why scientists should talk to philosophers

Posted on July 16, 2014 by | 295 comments

by Judith Curry

The divorce between philosophers and scientists is fairly recent.  Its time for a reconciliation.

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295 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty