Category Archives: Uncertainty

The art and science of climate model tuning

by Judith Curry

We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.

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Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

by Judith Curry

When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer

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(Mis) communicating science in public controversies

by Judith Curry

Bringing uncertainty to the public debate or putting the credibility of climate science at risk matters less to them than interest groups misusing or the public misinterpreting their results. – Senja Post

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Climate models and precautionary measures

by Judith Curry

Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb

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A War Against Fire

by Judith Curry

The most savage controversies are those as to which there is no good evidence either way. -Bertrand Russell

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A perspective on uncertainty and climate science

by Marcia Wyatt

This past summer I was asked to give a presentation on science and ethics. The person who asked me was motivated by the Pope’s encyclical, the comments regarding climate change.

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Structured expert judgment

by Judith Curry

Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. –  Willy Aspinall

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