Category Archives: Uncertainty

Five rules for evidence communication

by Judith Curry

“Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”

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What the pandemic has taught us about science

The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray

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How we fool ourselves

by Judith Curry

Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.

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CoV discussion thread

by Judith Curry

Some articles I’ve flagged, plus emails I’ve received.

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Coronavirus uncertainty

by Judith Curry

My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.

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Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry

A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling during this period.

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Escape from model land

by Judith Curry

“Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

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Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry

My new manuscript is now available.

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Climate science’s ‘masking bias’ problem

by Judith Curry

How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports.  And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate science.

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Climate’s uncertainty principle

by Garth Paltridge

On the costs and benefits of climate action.

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National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry

“You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine Hayhoe, co-author of the 4th National Climate Assessment Report.

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Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

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Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPOObs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPOClimate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPOClimate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPOClimate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading

The lure of incredible certitude

by Judith Curry

“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

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Uncertainty in climate projections

by Judith Curry

My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

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The perils of ‘near-tabloid science’

by Judith Curry

A remarkable essay by  esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

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Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

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A veneer of certainty stoking climate alarm

by Judith Curry

In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall

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The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics

by Vincent Randall

A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

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Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry

The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

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The ‘threat’ of climate change

by Judith Curry

A major disconnect in the discourse surrounding climate change is interpretation of the ‘threat’ of climate change.

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The art and science of climate model tuning

by Judith Curry

We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.

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Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

by Judith Curry

When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer

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