Category Archives: Uncertainty

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

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Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPOObs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPOClimate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPOClimate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPOClimate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading

The lure of incredible certitude

by Judith Curry

“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

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Uncertainty in climate projections

by Judith Curry

My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

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The perils of ‘near-tabloid science’

by Judith Curry

A remarkable essay by  esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

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