Category Archives: climate models

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis

A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights statements in SR15 relating to carbon emission budgets for meeting the 1.5°C and 2°C targets.

It seems fairly extraordinary to me that the AR5 post-2010 carbon budget for 1.5°C, which was only published four years ago, has in effect been now been increased by ~700 GtCO2 – equal to 21st century emissions to date – despite SR15’s projections of future warming being based very largely on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) range exhibited by the models used in AR5. Continue reading

A Test of the Tropical 200-300 mb Warming Rate in Climate Models

by Ross McKitrick

I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

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Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity

By Nic Lewis

A critique of of a new paper by Andrews  et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

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Uncertainty in climate projections

by Judith Curry

My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

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Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

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Of boundary and initial conditions

by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic

Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system.

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Energy budgets, climate system domains and internal variability

by Dan Hughes

It is not a boundary value problem.

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