Category Archives: climate models

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry

A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling during this period.

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Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations

by Kenneth Fritsch

Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.

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Analysis of a carbon forecast gone wrong: the case of the IPCC FAR

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (FAR) made forecasts or projections of future concentrations of carbon dioxide that turned out to be too high.

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Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick

Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

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Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

By Nic Lewis

In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy available here). I wrote that I would defer dealing with the differences between observed and CMIP5 model-simulated historical warming, which formed the basis of CJ20’s numerical analysis, until a subsequent article. I now do so. Continue reading

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry

“Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

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Why climate predictions are so difficult

by Judith Curry

An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

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