Category Archives: climate models

Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

by Ross McKitrick

A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a diagram of temperature change versus cumulative carbon emissions since 1870.

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Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis

[W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

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Climate models for lawyers

by Judith Curry

I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models.

***SEE UPDATE

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Climate modelers open up their black boxes to scrutiny

by Judith Curry

Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.

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Determinism and predictability

by Tomas Milanovic

There are few scientific concepts that are more often misunderstood in blog debates than Determinism and Predictability. For many commenters, these two concepts are considered to be in fact equivalent, which leads to faulty or irrelevant arguments.

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Generating regional scenarios of climate change

by Judith Curry

This post is about the practical aspects of generating regional scenarios of climate variability and change for the 21st century.

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Lorenz validated

by Kip Hansen

Some reflections on NCAR’s Large Ensemble.

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