Category Archives: Uncategorized

Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken

By Nic Lewis

Plain language summary

  • A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method can vary widely due to internal climate system variability.
  • I calculated what effect the uncertainty implied by the internal variability affecting the MPI‑ESM1.1 simulations had on the distribution of the primary climate sensitivity estimate in the recent Lewis & Curry energy-budget paper.
  • The result was a marginal narrowing of the Lewis & Curry sensitivity estimate. This is because the allowance for internal variability by Lewis & Curry is larger than internal variability in MPI‑ESM1.1.
  • Since historical period energy-budget sensitivity estimates are much more  imprecise for other reasons, internal variability contributes little to their total uncertainty; it is an unimportant factor.
  • Nothing in the new Dessler et al. paper indicates that the Lewis & Curry energy-budget climate sensitivity estimates are likely to be biased low.

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Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis

We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.  The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.

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Nature Unbound V – The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle

by Javier

The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

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Week in review – water edition

by Judith Curry

A round-up of recent articles from around the world about water — too little, too much, plus new technology and policy ideas.

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Merry Xmas

by Judith Curry

My very best wishes to all during the holiday season, whatever you might be celebrating.

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Balance and the Grid

by Planning Engineer and Jill Tietjen

The power system is a matter of extreme importance relating to economic development, quality of life as well as health and safety. In order to best meet the needs of any given area, it is necessary to balance the factors of economics, reliability and public responsibility. An imbalance in any area will lead to repercussions in other areas and may, in fact, prove to be counterproductive across all areas.

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