Category Archives: Uncategorized

Apocalyptic versus post-apocalyptic climate politics

by Judith Curry

The Inflation Reduction Act that has passed in the US Senate contains a healthy dose of funding for energy and climate initiatives.  There is much discussion as to why this bill looks like it will pass, when previous climate bills (carbon tax, carbon cap and trade) failed.

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The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (II). Solar activity unexplained/ignored effects on climate

The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (II). Solar activity unexplained/ignored effects on climate

by Javier Vinós & Andy May

“The complicated pattern of sun-weather relationships undoubtedly needs much further clarification, but progress in this field will be hindered if the view prevails that such relationships should not be taken seriously simply because the mechanisms involved in explaining them are not yet identified.” Joe W. King (1975)

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The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (I). The search for a solar signal

by Javier Vinós and Andy May

“Probably no subfield of meteorology has had as much effort devoted to it as the effects of solar variability on weather and climate. And none has had as little to show for the research labor.” Helmut E. Landsberg (1982)

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Week in review – climate edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past weeks.

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Precision agriculture for South Asia

by Judith Curry

An exciting new project for my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) to support smallholder farmers in Pakistan and India.

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Week in review – climate edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past weeks

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Biases in climate fingerprinting methods

by Ross McKitrick

  • Optimal fingerprinting is a statistical method that estimates the effect of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the climate in the form of a regression slope coefficient.
  • The larger the coefficient associated with GHGs, the bigger the implied effect on the climate system.
  • In 2003 Myles Allen and Simon Tett published an influential paper in Climate Dynamics recommending the use of a method called Total Least Squares in optimal fingerprinting regression to correct a potential downward bias associated with Ordinary Least Squares
  • The problem is that in most cases TLS replaces the downward bias in OLS with an upward bias that can be as large or larger
  • Under special conditions TLS will yield unbiased estimates, but you can’t test if they hold
  • Econometricians never use TLS because another method (Instrumental Variables) is a better solution to the problem

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Dissipation, continuum mechanics, mixtures and glaciers

by Dan Hughes

A brief continuation of previous discussions about calculation of viscous heat dissipation in the flow of liquids having linear stress/rate-of-strain constitutive description.

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Week in review – climate edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

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Osman et al. 2021: a flawed Nature paleoclimate paper?

By Nic Lewis

This article concerns the paper “Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum” by Matthew Osman et al.[2]  (hereafter Osman 2021) published by Nature in November 2021.

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Week in review – climate edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past weeks

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Thermodynamics and ice melt flows

by Dan Hughes

I recently ran across the paper by Isenko et al. [2005] listed below. The second paragraph of the introduction states:

“According to the conservation of energy, the loss of potential energy for a volume of water is sufficient to warm it by 0.2 C for each 100 m of lowering.”

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A ‘Plan B’ for addressing climate change and the energy transition

by Judith Curry

I have a new article published in the latest issue of International Affairs Forum.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

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Viscous dissipation heating by flows of melted ice on Greenland

by Dan Hughes

The contribution of viscous dissipation conversion of kinetic energy into thermal energy has been significantly over-estimated in three recent publications. The kinetic energy content of the macro-scale mean flow is assigned to be the heat dissipation into thermal energy. The estimate leads to temperature increases that make significant contributions to melting ice on Greenland.

A recent news release announced the findings of the research, and a video of a melt-lake draining into the glacier ice is in the news release and also at YouTube here.

A different estimate, in which the viscous dissipation is determined at the micro-scale of the flow, is calculated in these notes. This estimate, and the associated temperature increases in the flow, are significantly less than that based on the macro-scale. A PDF file with my analysis is here [BSLdissip02]

Comments, especially corrections for incorrectos, will be appreciated.

Tipping points in Earths geophysical and biological systems

by Robert Ellison

I don’t raise the alarm at all, but there are tipping points in the Earth system.   Megafloods and megadroughts. Abrupt warming or cooling of many degrees C in years or decades.  Glacials and interglacials.  Solar energy driving patterns of planetary turbulence and an ice, cloud and biology response.   These have always been with us.  Our limited geophysical instrumental series reveal a variability that can’t be distinguished from anthropogenic warming effects (Koutsoyiannis 2020 ).    So it’s happening but perhaps not quite the end of the world yet.

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Ukraine-climate nexus

by Judith Curry

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is inextricably linked to the global energy crisis, which is inextricably linked to the so-called climate ‘crisis’.

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How we have mischaracterized climate risk

by Judith Curry

“The current thinking and approaches guiding this conceptualization and description have been shown to lack scientific rigour, the consequence being that climate change risk and uncertainties are poorly presented. The climate change field needs to strengthen its risk science basis, to improve the current situation.” – Norwegian risk scientist Terje Aven

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

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Managing personal Covid risk

by Javier

My perspectives on managing personal Covid risk, based upon my knowledge of microbiology, genetics, immunology, cancer, and neurobiology.

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Crossing (or not) the 1.5 and 2.0C thresholds

by Judith Curry

“The first rule of climate chess is this.  The board is bigger than we think, and includes more than fossil fuels.”  – Jon Foley

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

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Existential risks

by Judith Curry

Some reflections on the movie Don’t Look Up.

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Year in review

by Judith Curry

A year ago, who would have thought that 2021 would be crazier than 2020?

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TORNADO

by Judith Curry

Politics versus the data versus communicating science.

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