Category Archives: Uncategorized

by Judith Curry

Countdown to the ‘conversation’ between Mann, Titley, Moore, Curry.  Looks like you can now register for the live broadcast, for a fee of $10 [link].

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By Nic Lewis

Plain language summary

• A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method can vary widely due to internal climate system variability.
• I calculated what effect the uncertainty implied by the internal variability affecting the MPI‑ESM1.1 simulations had on the distribution of the primary climate sensitivity estimate in the recent Lewis & Curry energy-budget paper.

• The result was a marginal narrowing of the Lewis & Curry sensitivity estimate. This is because the allowance for internal variability by Lewis & Curry is larger than internal variability in MPI‑ESM1.1.
• Since historical period energy-budget sensitivity estimates are much more  imprecise for other reasons, internal variability contributes little to their total uncertainty; it is an unimportant factor.
• Nothing in the new Dessler et al. paper indicates that the Lewis & Curry energy-budget climate sensitivity estimates are likely to be biased low.

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by Javier

The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.

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by Judith Curry

A round-up of recent articles from around the world about water — too little, too much, plus new technology and policy ideas.

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by Judith Curry

My very best wishes to all during the holiday season, whatever you might be celebrating.

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