Category Archives: Uncategorized

Week in review – science edition

By Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past several weeks

Continue reading

Heat waves and hot air

by Judith Curry

Heat waves are the new polar bears, stoking alarm about climate change.  Climate scientists addressing this in the media are using misleading and/or inadequate approaches.  How should we approach assessing whether and how much manmade global warming has contributed to recent record breaking  temperatures?  Read on for some outside-the-box thinking on this.

Continue reading

5 minutes

by Judith Curry

How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?

Continue reading

Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Electric System Reliability

by Judith Curry

I recently participated in a Technical Conference sponsored by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

Continue reading

Death spiral of American academia

by Patrick J Michaels

Earlier this year, Eric Kaufmann of the University of London published a remarkably detailed and comprehensive study of bias in academia, “Academic Freedom in Crisis: Punishment, Political Discrimination, and Self-Censorship.” Kaufmann’s writing is a product of California’s Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology, a small think-tank set up to do research that is forbidden in today’s academy. His finding of rampant left-sided political bias in publication, employment, and promotion in the Academy — and discrimination against anyone right-of-center — qualifies as forbidden scholarship.

Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.

Continue reading

Truth or consequences: global warming consensus thinking and the decline of public debate

by Geoffrey Weiss and Claude Roessiger

The so-called debate about the causes and effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a notable irony. Rather than a forum for free disputation, AGW has in recent years become the site of a consensus equating majority opinion with truth—leaving little, if any, room for debate. After all, doesn’t everyone but a misguided few agree that we are in the grip of an unparalleled, man- made climatic catastrophe?

Continue reading

Simplified climate modelling. Part 1: The role of CO2 in paleoclimate

by Thomas Anderl

Simple models are formulated to identify the essentials of the natural climate variabilities, concentrating on the readily observable and simplest description. The results will be presented in a series of five articles. This first part shows an attempt to determine the climate role of CO2 from the past. Observations on 400 Mio. years of paleoclimate are found to well constrain the compound universal climate role of CO2, represented by a simple formula.

Continue reading

Collapse of the fake consensus on Covid-19 origins

by Judith Curry

The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a ‘consensus’ on Covid-19 origins.

Continue reading

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050

by Judith Curry

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy. 

Continue reading

How epidemiologists try to fool us with flawed statistical practices

by S. Stanley Young and Warren Kindzierski

Climate Etc. recently carried several insightful posts about How we fool ourselves. One of the posts – Part II: Scientific consensus building – was right on the money given our experience! The post pointed out that… ‘researcher degrees of freedom’… allows for researchers to extract statistical significance or other meaningful information out of almost any data set. Along similar lines, we offer some thoughts on how others try to fool us using statistics (aka how to lie with statistics); others being epidemiologists and government bureaucrats. 

Continue reading

North Atlantic Nonsense

by Alan Longhurst

   “Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades“.  

Continue reading

Climate book shelf

by Judith Curry

Reviews of new books by Steve Koonin, Matthew Kahn and Marc Morano.

Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my these past few weeks.

Continue reading

Eco-anxiety

by Judith Curry

The damaging effects of generating eco-anxiety in children. Climate Etc. as an antidote.

Continue reading

Climate is everything

by Judith Curry

. . . according to the cover story of April 26 issue of Time Magazine. How have we have fooled ourselves into thinking that manmade climate change is the dominant cause of societal problems?

Continue reading

How we fool ourselves. Part III: Social biases

by Judith Curry

“Is the road to scientific hell paved with good intentions?” – political psychologist Philip Tetlock (1994)

Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

Continue reading

How we fool ourselves. Part II: Scientific consensus building

by Judith Curry

“Like a magnetic field that pulls iron filings into alignment, a powerful cultural belief is aligning multiple sources of scientific bias in the same direction. – policy scientist Daniel Sarewitz

Continue reading

Environmental Justice campaign to replace New York City peaking power plants

by Roger Caiazza

Environmental justice organizations are currently a major driver of environmental regulation in New York. A new report “The Fossil Fuel End Game, A frontline vision to retire New York City’s peaker plants by 2030” illustrates the campaign strategy they are using to shut down peaking power plants in New York City.  Unfortunately their claims are based more on emotion than fact.

Continue reading

UK climate policy discussion thread

by Judith Curry

I have been contacted by a UK politician about climate policy in the UK,

Continue reading

The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an update

By Nic Lewis

I thought it was time for an update of my original analysis of 28 June 2020. As I wrote then, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. Continue reading

COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?

By Nic Lewis

 Introduction

Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major second wave would occur. This thinking has been proved wrong. In this article I give an explanation of why I think major second waves have happened. Continue reading

The relative infectivity of the new UK variant of SARS-CoV-2

By Nic Lewis

Key points

  • A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England
  • The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x
  • They mis-convert this in a reproduction number ratio of 1.47; converting appropriately gives a ratio of 1.25
  • Confident claims by the UK government scientific advisers that the higher growth of B.1.1.7 is due to increased transmissibility are misplaced; it could be partly of wholly due to other factors
  • 1.1.7 has not shown a greater growth rate advantage than two previous variants did, both of which are now thought to have no greater transmissibility than previously existing variants
  • There is little evidence that B.1.1.7 is more virulent, or likely to be resistant to existing vaccines

Continue reading

Asymptomatic spread(?) of Covid-19

by Judith Curry

I just finished reading an article entitled Asymptomatic Spread Revisited. Continue reading