Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update

By Nic Lewis

I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1]

I particularly want to highlight an important paper published on July 24th “Herd immunity thresholds estimated from unfolding epidemics” (Aguas et al.).[2] The author team is much the same as that of the earlier theoretical paper (Gomes et al.[3]) that prompted my May 10th article. Continue reading

Apocalypse Never and False Alarm

by Judith Curry

Two important new books to discuss.

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Cancel culture discussion thread

by Judith Curry

A change of topic.

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Covid discussion thread: Part X

by Judith Curry

Latest roundup of interesting articles.  I’m running out of steam on this topic, here are some random articles I’ve flagged over the last few weeks.

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The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis

By Nic Lewis

The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As there has been much comment, some of it ill-informed, on how the COVID-19 epidemic has developed in Sweden, but relatively little detailed analysis published in English, it is worth exploring what their excellent publicly-available data reveal. Continue reading

Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part II

by Roland Hirsch

New technologies in mass spectrometry are advancing research in climate science

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye the past 7(!) weeks.

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Did lockdowns really save 3 million COVID-19 deaths, as Flaxman et al. claim?

By Nic Lewis

Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers

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Structural errors in global climate models

by Gerald Browning

Climate model sensitivity to CO2 is heavily dependent on artificial parameterizations (e.g. clouds, convection) that are implemented in global climate models that utilize  the wrong atmospheric dynamical system and excessive dissipation.

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Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part I: Determining past climates

by Roland Hirsch

Mass spectrometry is essential for research in climate science.

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Covid discussion thread: Part IX

by Judith Curry

Some interesting articles that I’ve spotted recently.

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Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans

by Judith Curry

Peter Webster’s magnum opus is now published: Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans.

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Covid discussion thread: Part VIII

by Judith Curry

Interesting papers that I’ve recently spotted

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When does government intervention make sense for COVID-19?

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

I showed in my last article that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and infectivity of individuals would reduce the herd immunity threshold, in my view probably very substantially, and that evidence from Stockholm County appeared to support that view. In this article I will first provide other evidence pointing to such population inhomogeneity being very considerable. I will then go on to consider how the overshoot of infections beyond the herd immunity threshold could be reduced. Continue reading

COVID-19 discussion thread VII

by Judith Curry

Some interesting papers that I’ve spotted over the past week.

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Culturally-determined response to climate change: Part III

by Andy West

Climate change affirmative responses to all survey questions are culturally determined, and across National Publics related to religiousity.  Cultural attitudes inappropriately push climate policy.

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Greening the planet and slouching towards Paris?

by Patrick J. Michaels

A new paper finds higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations.  The paper predicts that the Earth is going to gain nearly three times as much green matter as was predicted by the IPCC AR5.

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Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

A study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a fair extent, in the US and some other countries. Until that report came out, the strategy of the UK government, at least, seems to have been to rely on the build up of ‘herd immunity’ to slow the growth of the epidemic and eventually cause it to peter out. Continue reading

COVID discussion thread VI

by Judith Curry

A roundup of interesting articles on COVID-19.

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Week in review – climate science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week — climate science & policy

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COVID discussion thread V

by Judith Curry

A round up of recent interesting articles

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Apparent Paradoxes in the relationship of Climate ‘Concerns, Skepticism, Activism, and Priority’, explained by Religiosity

by Andy West

Explores the contrast between Allied and Core belief in the culture of climate catastrophe, and the relationships of these plus religiosity to Climate Change Activism (XR and Children’s Strikes for Climate). Post 2 of 3.

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A sensible COVID-19 exit strategy for the UK

By Nic Lewis

The current approach

A study by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al. 2020[i]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The lockdown imposed in the UK appears, unsurprisingly, to have slowed the growth of COVID-19 infections, and may well soon lead to total active cases declining. However, it comes at huge economic and social costs, and substantial COVID-19-unrelated health costs.

Worse, the lockdown is merely a holding strategy, which offers no long term solution to the COVID-19 problem. The eventual total number of deaths for COVID-19 are not reduced relative to any less restrictive policy that likewise avoided the health system being overwhelmed. Deaths are merely spread over a longer period, assuming that eventually restrictions are lifted and people’s lives return to normal. Continue reading

COVID discussion thread IV

by Judith Curry

My latest roundup of articles Continue reading

Can religiosity predict cultural climate beliefs?

by Andy West

Probing the relationship between religiosity globally, and cultural beliefs in the narrative of imminent / certain global climate catastrophe: Post 1 of 3.

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