How we fool ourselves. Part II: Scientific consensus building

Posted on April 10, 2021 by | 446 comments

by Judith Curry

“Like a magnetic field that pulls iron filings into alignment, a powerful cultural belief is aligning multiple sources of scientific bias in the same direction. – policy scientist Daniel Sarewitz

Continue reading →

446 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Environmental Justice campaign to replace New York City peaking power plants

Posted on April 2, 2021 by | 111 comments

by Roger Caiazza

Environmental justice organizations are currently a major driver of environmental regulation in New York. A new report “The Fossil Fuel End Game, A frontline vision to retire New York City’s peaker plants by 2030” illustrates the campaign strategy they are using to shut down peaking power plants in New York City.  Unfortunately their claims are based more on emotion than fact.

Continue reading →

111 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

A pertinent climate question

Posted on March 28, 2021 by | 116 comments

by Michel de Rougemont

Not so innocent as it looks, a pertinent question is asked by Judith Curry on Twitter:

How much of a change in cloudiness would it take to account for the 0.53 W/m2 increase in TOA radiative forcing since 2003?
https://twitter.com/curryja/status/1375144537522204672

Continue reading →

116 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

UK climate policy discussion thread

Posted on March 21, 2021 by | 258 comments

by Judith Curry

I have been contacted by a UK politician about climate policy in the UK,

Continue reading →

258 Comments

Posted in Policy, Politics, Uncategorized

Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways

Posted on March 17, 2021 by | 88 comments

by Judith Curry

Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.

Continue reading →

88 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Oceans, Uncertainty

Week in review – science edition

Posted on March 12, 2021 by | 164 comments

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

Continue reading →

164 Comments

Posted in Week in review

Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise

Posted on March 8, 2021 by | 61 comments

by Judith Curry

How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?

Continue reading →

61 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Uncertainty

Climate adaptation follies. Part I: The New Jersey challenge

Posted on March 7, 2021 by | 93 comments

by Judith Curry

New Jersey has a sea level rise problem.  How should this be managed?

Continue reading →

93 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Oceans

Canceling the AMO

Posted on March 6, 2021 by | 140 comments

by Judith Curry

Conclusion from Michael Mann’s new paper:  “We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.”

Continue reading →

140 Comments

Posted in Causation, Oceans

Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models

Posted on March 5, 2021 by | 45 comments

By Nic Lewis

An important paper, Wang et al.[1], on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published. The key conclusion of the paper is:

The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and observations requires a strong aerosol indirect cooling effect that leads to an interhemispheric temperature evolution that is inconsistent with observations.

Continue reading →

45 Comments

Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Uncomfortable knowledge

Posted on March 3, 2021 by | 197 comments

by Judith Curry

On the misuse of science and scientific authority.

Continue reading →

197 Comments

Posted in Policy, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Week in review – TX edition

Posted on February 28, 2021 by | 147 comments

by Judith Curry

A round up of some insightful articles on the TX blackout

Continue reading →

147 Comments

Posted in Week in review

CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution

Posted on February 26, 2021 by | 108 comments

by Alan Longhurst

Natural climate variability in the polar regions.

Continue reading →

108 Comments

Posted in Polar regions, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas

Posted on February 18, 2021 by | 553 comments

By Planning Engineer

The story from some media sources is that frozen wind turbines are responsible for the power shortfalls in Texas. Other media sources emphasize that fossil fuel resources should shoulder the blame because they have large cold induced outages as well and also some natural gas plants could not obtain fuel.

Extreme cold should be expected to cause significant outages of both renewable and fossil fuel based resources. Why would anyone expect that sufficient amounts of natural gas would be available and deliverable to supply much needed generation? Considering the extreme cold, nothing particularly surprising is happening within any resource class in Texas. The technologies and their performance were well within the expected bounds of what could have been foreseen for such weather conditions. While some degradation should be expected, what is happening in Texas is a departure from what they should be experiencing. Who or what then is responsible for the shocking consequences produced by Texas’s run in with this recent bout of extreme cold?

Continue reading →

553 Comments

Posted in Energy

The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an update

Posted on February 18, 2021 by | 720 comments

By Nic Lewis

I thought it was time for an update of my original analysis of 28 June 2020. As I wrote then, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. Continue reading →

720 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector

Posted on February 15, 2021 by | 86 comments

by Judith Curry

The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes.  Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested a critique of this report.

Continue reading →

86 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

A climate of dialogue

Posted on February 12, 2021 by | 183 comments

by Judith Curry

A pacated dialogue between two serious thinkers who disagree about climate change.

Continue reading →

183 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Road to Climate Neutrality

Posted on February 8, 2021 by | 191 comments

by Judith Curry

Spatial Requirements of Wind/Solar and Nuclear Energy and Their Respective Costs

“In addition to the energy sector, the climate debate also needs a transition. From ideology and wishful thinking, to facts, figures and rationality.”

Continue reading →

191 Comments

Posted in Energy, Policy

Interview: Climate Change – A Different Perspective with Judith Curry

Posted on January 30, 2021 by | 374 comments

by Judith Curry

My recent interview on the Strong and Free podcast.

Continue reading →

374 Comments

Posted in Policy, Politics

Week in review – science edition

Posted on January 24, 2021 by | 284 comments

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye over the past several weeks.

Continue reading →

284 Comments

Posted in Week in review

Committed warming and the pattern effect

Posted on January 19, 2021 by | 174 comments

By Nic Lewis

A critique of the paper “Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect”, by Zhou, Zelinka, Dessler and Wang. Continue reading →

174 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

The big ‘cancel’

Posted on January 12, 2021 by | 1,204 comments

by Judith Curry

We need to allow all voices to be heard.

Continue reading →

1,204 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Politics

COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?

Posted on January 10, 2021 by | 797 comments

By Nic Lewis

 Introduction

Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major second wave would occur. This thinking has been proved wrong. In this article I give an explanation of why I think major second waves have happened. Continue reading →

797 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Biden Administration II

Posted on January 7, 2021 by | 804 comments

by Judith Curry

Just as everyone was heaving a sigh of relief that 2020 is over, 2021 is providing some fresh craziness.

Continue reading →

804 Comments

Posted in Politics

Looking forward: new technologies in the 2020’s

Posted on January 2, 2021 by | 368 comments

by Judith Curry

Looking ahead towards new energy technologies, plus my own saga and rationale for transitioning my personal power generation and consumption. Continue reading →

368 Comments

Posted in Energy