Herd immunity to COVID-19 and pre-existing immune responses

By Nic Lewis

I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that have caught my eye this past 12(!) weeks.

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FIRE

by Judith Curry

Subtitle: our failure to live in harmony with nature.

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COVID-19: evidence shows that transmission by schoolchildren is low

By Nic Lewis

Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe. Continue reading

Part of the heat is coming from beneath our feet.

by Judith Curry

A thought-provoking article  from my new favorite blog, The Ethical Skeptic.

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Politics discussion thread

by Judith Curry

It’s time for a politics thread, to deflect the political comments that are sneaking into the technical threads.

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New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

by Ross McKitrick

Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

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New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

By Nic Lewis

An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads: Continue reading

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

By Nic Lewis

This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to have raised the issue that I focus on here. Continue reading

Cancel culture discussion thread II

by Judith Curry

Some additional articles and events to discuss.

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Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update

By Nic Lewis

I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1]

I particularly want to highlight an important paper published on July 24th “Herd immunity thresholds estimated from unfolding epidemics” (Aguas et al.).[2] The author team is much the same as that of the earlier theoretical paper (Gomes et al.[3]) that prompted my May 10th article. Continue reading

Apocalypse Never and False Alarm

by Judith Curry

Two important new books to discuss.

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Cancel culture discussion thread

by Judith Curry

A change of topic.

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Covid discussion thread: Part X

by Judith Curry

Latest roundup of interesting articles.  I’m running out of steam on this topic, here are some random articles I’ve flagged over the last few weeks.

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The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis

By Nic Lewis

The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As there has been much comment, some of it ill-informed, on how the COVID-19 epidemic has developed in Sweden, but relatively little detailed analysis published in English, it is worth exploring what their excellent publicly-available data reveal. Continue reading

Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part II

by Roland Hirsch

New technologies in mass spectrometry are advancing research in climate science

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye the past 7(!) weeks.

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Did lockdowns really save 3 million COVID-19 deaths, as Flaxman et al. claim?

By Nic Lewis

Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers

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Structural errors in global climate models

by Gerald Browning

Climate model sensitivity to CO2 is heavily dependent on artificial parameterizations (e.g. clouds, convection) that are implemented in global climate models that utilize  the wrong atmospheric dynamical system and excessive dissipation.

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Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part I: Determining past climates

by Roland Hirsch

Mass spectrometry is essential for research in climate science.

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Covid discussion thread: Part IX

by Judith Curry

Some interesting articles that I’ve spotted recently.

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Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans

by Judith Curry

Peter Webster’s magnum opus is now published: Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans.

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Covid discussion thread: Part VIII

by Judith Curry

Interesting papers that I’ve recently spotted

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When does government intervention make sense for COVID-19?

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

I showed in my last article that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and infectivity of individuals would reduce the herd immunity threshold, in my view probably very substantially, and that evidence from Stockholm County appeared to support that view. In this article I will first provide other evidence pointing to such population inhomogeneity being very considerable. I will then go on to consider how the overshoot of infections beyond the herd immunity threshold could be reduced. Continue reading

COVID-19 discussion thread VII

by Judith Curry

Some interesting papers that I’ve spotted over the past week.

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