Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up

By Nic Lewis

Introduction and summary

A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The study is not peer reviewed; indeed, it seems not to have been externally reviewed at all. Moreover, the computer code used to produce the estimates in the study – which on Ferguson’s own admission is old, unverified and documented inadequately, if at all – has still not been published. That, in my view, shows a worrying approach to a matter of vital public concern.

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CoV discussion thread II

by Judith Curry

Time for a new thread.

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COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic and hence government policy. Much of the concern in the UK resulted from a non-peer reviewed study published by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al 2020[1]). In this article, I examine whether data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship – arguably the most useful data set available – support the fatality rate assumptions underlying the Imperial study. I find that it does not do so. The likely fatality rates for age groups from 60 upwards, which account for the vast bulk of projected deaths, appear to be much lower than those in the Ferguson et al. study. Continue reading

CoV discussion thread

by Judith Curry

Some articles I’ve flagged, plus emails I’ve received.

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Coronavirus uncertainty

by Judith Curry

My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.

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Coronavirus technical thread

by Judith Curry

A thread devoted to technical topics, e.g. epidemiology, immunology, treatments.  A more general thread will be coming shortly.

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Coronavirus discussion thread

by Judith Curry

Discuss.

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