Energy Security and Grid Resilience

by Judith Curry

Diversifying and securing energy supplies nationally and locally.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past few weeks.

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2019 ENSO forecast

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. – Forecast issued 3/25/19

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What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry

Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

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Why climate predictions are so difficult

by Judith Curry

An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

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What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

by Judith Curry

Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

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What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry

Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have missed, that could turn out to be real outcomes? Are there too many unknowns for us to have confidence that we have credibly identified the worst case? What threshold of plausibility or credibility should be used when assessing these extreme scenarios for policy making and risk management?

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