Week in review – science edition

Posted on April 14, 2019 by | 141 comments

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past few weeks.

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Posted in Week in review

2019 ENSO forecast

Posted on April 4, 2019 by | 71 comments

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. – Forecast issued 3/25/19

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Posted in Prediction

What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity

Posted on April 1, 2019 by | 93 comments

by Judith Curry

Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

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93 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Why climate predictions are so difficult

Posted on March 30, 2019 by | 110 comments

by Judith Curry

An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

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110 Comments

Posted in climate models, Prediction, Sensitivity & feedbacks

What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

Posted on March 28, 2019 by | 97 comments

by Judith Curry

Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

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97 Comments

Posted in Prediction

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

Posted on March 27, 2019 by | 140 comments

by Judith Curry

Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have missed, that could turn out to be real outcomes? Are there too many unknowns for us to have confidence that we have credibly identified the worst case? What threshold of plausibility or credibility should be used when assessing these extreme scenarios for policy making and risk management?

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140 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Why I don’t ‘believe’ in ‘science’

Posted on March 26, 2019 by | 140 comments

by Judith Curry

” ‘I believe in science’ is an homage given to science by people who generally don’t understand much about it. Science is used here not to describe specific methods or theories, but to provide a badge of tribal identity.  Which serves, ironically, to demonstrate a lack of interest in the guiding principles of actual science.” – Robert Tracinski

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Posted in Sociology of science