By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Posted in Extreme events
By Nic Lewis
Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
A thought-provoking article from my new favorite blog, The Ethical Skeptic.
Posted in Attribution, Causation, Ethics, Skeptics
by Judith Curry
It’s time for a politics thread, to deflect the political comments that are sneaking into the technical threads.
Posted in Uncategorized
by Ross McKitrick
Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.
Posted in climate models
By Nic Lewis
An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads: Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
By Nic Lewis
This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to have raised the issue that I focus on here. Continue reading
By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1]
I particularly want to highlight an important paper published on July 24th “Herd immunity thresholds estimated from unfolding epidemics” (Aguas et al.).[2] The author team is much the same as that of the earlier theoretical paper (Gomes et al.[3]) that prompted my May 10th article. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Posted in Communication, Ethics
by Judith Curry
Latest roundup of interesting articles. I’m running out of steam on this topic, here are some random articles I’ve flagged over the last few weeks.
Posted in Week in review
By Nic Lewis
The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As there has been much comment, some of it ill-informed, on how the COVID-19 epidemic has developed in Sweden, but relatively little detailed analysis published in English, it is worth exploring what their excellent publicly-available data reveal. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
by Roland Hirsch
New technologies in mass spectrometry are advancing research in climate science
Posted in Data and observations
By Nic Lewis
Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers
Posted in Uncategorized
by Gerald Browning
Climate model sensitivity to CO2 is heavily dependent on artificial parameterizations (e.g. clouds, convection) that are implemented in global climate models that utilize the wrong atmospheric dynamical system and excessive dissipation.
Posted in climate models
by Judith Curry
Peter Webster’s magnum opus is now published: Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans.
Posted in Oceans
By Nic Lewis
Introduction
I showed in my last article that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and infectivity of individuals would reduce the herd immunity threshold, in my view probably very substantially, and that evidence from Stockholm County appeared to support that view. In this article I will first provide other evidence pointing to such population inhomogeneity being very considerable. I will then go on to consider how the overshoot of infections beyond the herd immunity threshold could be reduced. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Posted in Week in review
