CAGW: a ‘snarl’ word?

The term ‘CAGW’  has both appropriate and inappropriate usage.

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Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

by Judith Curry

In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

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Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading

Admitting mistakes in a ‘hostile environment’

by Judith Curry

Reflections on Nic Lewis’ audit of the Resplandy et al. paper.

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Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPOObs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPOClimate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPOClimate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPOClimate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading

The catastrophe narrative

by Andy West

A narrative propagated by emotive engagement, not veracity.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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