Uncomfortable knowledge

by Judith Curry

On the misuse of science and scientific authority.

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Week in review – TX edition

by Judith Curry

A round up of some insightful articles on the TX blackout

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CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution

by Alan Longhurst

Natural climate variability in the polar regions.

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Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas

By Planning Engineer

The story from some media sources is that frozen wind turbines are responsible for the power shortfalls in Texas. Other media sources emphasize that fossil fuel resources should shoulder the blame because they have large cold induced outages as well and also some natural gas plants could not obtain fuel.

Extreme cold should be expected to cause significant outages of both renewable and fossil fuel based resources. Why would anyone expect that sufficient amounts of natural gas would be available and deliverable to supply much needed generation? Considering the extreme cold, nothing particularly surprising is happening within any resource class in Texas. The technologies and their performance were well within the expected bounds of what could have been foreseen for such weather conditions. While some degradation should be expected, what is happening in Texas is a departure from what they should be experiencing. Who or what then is responsible for the shocking consequences produced by Texas’s run in with this recent bout of extreme cold?

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The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an update

By Nic Lewis

I thought it was time for an update of my original analysis of 28 June 2020. As I wrote then, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. Continue reading

Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector

by Judith Curry

The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes.  Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested a critique of this report.

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A climate of dialogue

by Judith Curry

A pacated dialogue between two serious thinkers who disagree about climate change.

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Road to Climate Neutrality

by Judith Curry

Spatial Requirements of Wind/Solar and Nuclear Energy and Their Respective Costs

“In addition to the energy sector, the climate debate also needs a transition. From ideology and wishful thinking, to facts, figures and rationality.”

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Interview: Climate Change – A Different Perspective with Judith Curry

by Judith Curry

My recent interview on the Strong and Free podcast.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye over the past several weeks.

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Committed warming and the pattern effect

By Nic Lewis

A critique of the paper “Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect”, by Zhou, Zelinka, Dessler and Wang. Continue reading

The big ‘cancel’

by Judith Curry

We need to allow all voices to be heard.

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COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?

By Nic Lewis

 Introduction

Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major second wave would occur. This thinking has been proved wrong. In this article I give an explanation of why I think major second waves have happened. Continue reading

Biden Administration II

by Judith Curry

Just as everyone was heaving a sigh of relief that 2020 is over, 2021 is providing some fresh craziness.

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Looking forward: new technologies in the 2020’s

by Judith Curry

Looking ahead towards new energy technologies, plus my own saga and rationale for transitioning my personal power generation and consumption. Continue reading

The relative infectivity of the new UK variant of SARS-CoV-2

By Nic Lewis

Key points

  • A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England
  • The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x
  • They mis-convert this in a reproduction number ratio of 1.47; converting appropriately gives a ratio of 1.25
  • Confident claims by the UK government scientific advisers that the higher growth of B.1.1.7 is due to increased transmissibility are misplaced; it could be partly of wholly due to other factors
  • 1.1.7 has not shown a greater growth rate advantage than two previous variants did, both of which are now thought to have no greater transmissibility than previously existing variants
  • There is little evidence that B.1.1.7 is more virulent, or likely to be resistant to existing vaccines

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2020 Year in Review

by Judith Curry

A year ago, there were many things about 2020 that no one anticipated.

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Asymptomatic spread(?) of Covid-19

by Judith Curry

I just finished reading an article entitled Asymptomatic Spread Revisited. Continue reading

The blame game

by Judith Curry

How the ‘blame game’ gets in the way of solving complex societal problems.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past 10 (!) weeks

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Biden administration

by Judith Curry

I’ve received requests for a new politics discussion thread.

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Five rules for evidence communication

by Judith Curry

“Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”

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Cultural motivations for wind and solar renewables deployment

by Andy West

“For me the question now is, now that we know that renewables can’t save the planet, are we going to keep letting them destroy it?”. – Michael Schellenberger Continue reading

Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really?

by Frank Bosse

A recent paper published in “Nature” made some excitement in the media, see here or here.

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Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

by Kenneth Fritsch

Abstract. An analysis is presented of  he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model that can account for the period disconnection using the negative forcing of aerosol/cloud effects in the Historical period that is carried forward into the Future period.   I attribute some of the uncertainty in simulations of this simple model to endogenous model decision (selection) uncertainty that leads to variations in the changes of the negative forcing in the Historical period carried forward into the Future period.

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