Can religiosity predict cultural climate beliefs?

by Andy West

Probing the relationship between religiosity globally, and cultural beliefs in the narrative of imminent / certain global climate catastrophe: Post 1 of 3.

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In favor of epistemic trespassing

by Judith Curry

On the importance of expertise from other fields for COVD19 and climate change.

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CoV Discussion Thread III

By Judith Curry

My latest selection of interesting articles.

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Sunday fun: personality testing

by Judith Curry

And now for something different.

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Week in review – climate science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.

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Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up

By Nic Lewis

Introduction and summary

A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The study is not peer reviewed; indeed, it seems not to have been externally reviewed at all. Moreover, the computer code used to produce the estimates in the study – which on Ferguson’s own admission is old, unverified and documented inadequately, if at all – has still not been published. That, in my view, shows a worrying approach to a matter of vital public concern.

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CoV discussion thread II

by Judith Curry

Time for a new thread.

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COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic and hence government policy. Much of the concern in the UK resulted from a non-peer reviewed study published by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al 2020[1]). In this article, I examine whether data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship – arguably the most useful data set available – support the fatality rate assumptions underlying the Imperial study. I find that it does not do so. The likely fatality rates for age groups from 60 upwards, which account for the vast bulk of projected deaths, appear to be much lower than those in the Ferguson et al. study. Continue reading

CoV discussion thread

by Judith Curry

Some articles I’ve flagged, plus emails I’ve received.

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Coronavirus uncertainty

by Judith Curry

My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.

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Coronavirus technical thread

by Judith Curry

A thread devoted to technical topics, e.g. epidemiology, immunology, treatments.  A more general thread will be coming shortly.

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Coronavirus discussion thread

by Judith Curry

Discuss.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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Australian fires: Climate ‘truth bomb’?

by Alan Longhurst

Recipe for Australia’s climate ‘truth bomb’:  dubious manipulations of the historical temperature record, ignorance of the climate dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere, and ignorance of Australia’s ecological and social history.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry

A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling during this period.

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Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations

by Kenneth Fritsch

Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.

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Economic impact of energy consumption change caused by global warming

by Peter Lang and Ken Gregory

A new paper ‘Economic impact of energy consumption change caused by global warming’ finds global warming may be beneficial.

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Analysis of a carbon forecast gone wrong: the case of the IPCC FAR

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (FAR) made forecasts or projections of future concentrations of carbon dioxide that turned out to be too high.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

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Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick

Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

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Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

by Frank Bosse

Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data.

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Why the CO2 reduction pathways are too stringent

by Jacques Hagoort

Why the IPCC carbon budgets in SR1.5 are over conservative, and the CO2 reduction pathways are too stringent.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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2020

by Judith Curry

Happy New Year!

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