Climate Etc.

By Nic Lewis

I thought it was time for an update of my original analysis of 28 June 2020. As I wrote then, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis

 Introduction

Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major second wave would occur. This thinking has been proved wrong. In this article I give an explanation of why I think major second waves have happened. Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis

Key points

• A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England
• The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x
• They mis-convert this in a reproduction number ratio of 1.47; converting appropriately gives a ratio of 1.25
• Confident claims by the UK government scientific advisers that the higher growth of B.1.1.7 is due to increased transmissibility are misplaced; it could be partly of wholly due to other factors
• 1.1.7 has not shown a greater growth rate advantage than two previous variants did, both of which are now thought to have no greater transmissibility than previously existing variants
• There is little evidence that B.1.1.7 is more virulent, or likely to be resistant to existing vaccines

Continue reading →

by Judith Curry

I just finished reading an article entitled Asymptomatic Spread Revisited. Continue reading →