Monthly Archives: March 2018

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global models. Part III

Posted on March 29, 2018 by | 78 comments

by Nic Lewis

The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.

Continue reading →

78 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part II

Posted on March 23, 2018 by | 32 comments

by Nic Lewis

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.

Continue reading →

32 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

Posted on March 21, 2018 by | 134 comments

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise is too little, too late, and too linear. – Walter Munk

Continue reading →

134 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Oceans

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I

Posted on March 19, 2018 by | 119 comments

by Nic Lewis

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

Continue reading →

119 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Recent research on aerosol forcing of the CMIP5 models

Posted on March 11, 2018 by | 169 comments

by Frank Bosse

A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing from ACI (ERFaci) is smaller than thought, perhaps near zero .

Continue reading →

169 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

What are the main sources of heat that account for the incremental rise in temperature on Earth?

Posted on March 9, 2018 by | 227 comments

by Judith Curry

Suggestions for the climate ‘red team’ response.

Continue reading →

227 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Will advances in groundwater science force a paradigm shift in sea level rise attribution?

Posted on March 4, 2018 by | 117 comments

by Jim Steele

 A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and thermal expansion.

Continue reading →

117 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Oceans

The Rise and Fall of Central England Temperatures: Part II

Posted on March 3, 2018 by | 140 comments

by Tony Brown

This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century

  • Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America
  • Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this
  • Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate.
  • Notes considerable English seasonal variability over the centuries
  • Examines the key component parts of the weather that affect the British Isles
  • Queries whether wind direction, strength and longevity are major factors in shaping our climate over the centuries.

Continue reading →

140 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations, History