Monthly Archives: January 2012

Climate scenarios: 2015-2050

Posted on January 31, 2012 by curryja | 501 comments

by Judith Curry

‘Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment’

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501 Comments

Posted in Prediction

How not to save the planet

Posted on January 30, 2012 by curryja | 272 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate change presents us with a pressing challenge. A global consensus accepts that human activity is responsible for climate change and its associated dangers. However, there is disagreement on how best to address this challenge. The essay argues that leading proposals are unsatisfactory, such as the ecological footprint and polluter pays principle. The reasons include that they do not effectively manage climate change and may contribute to further problems. We require a new approach to address climate change.

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272 Comments

Posted in Policy

Assessing climate data record transparency and maturity

Posted on January 29, 2012 by curryja | 239 comments

by Judith Curry

This proposal by John Bates of NOAA NCDC nails what is needed in terms of climate data records.

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239 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Keith Seitter on the ‘uncertainty monster’

Posted on January 28, 2012 by curryja | 288 comments

by Judith Curry

Keith Seitter is Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society.

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288 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Questions on research integrity and scientific responsibility: Part II

Posted on January 26, 2012 by curryja | 242 comments

by Judith Curry

Here is the content of my presentation to the UN InterAcademy Council Project on Research Integrity and Scientific Responsibility.

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242 Comments

Posted in Ethics

Nature Physics Insight – Complexity

Posted on January 25, 2012 by curryja | 201 comments

by Judith Curry

In many large ensembles, the property of the system as a whole cannot be understood from studying the individual entities alone. The past decade has seen important progress in our fundamental understanding of what such seemingly disparate ‘complex systems’ have in common; some of these advances are surveyed here.

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201 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Missing(?) heat isn’t missing after all

Posted on January 24, 2012 by curryja | 563 comments

by Judith Curry

Earth’s “missing heat” might not be missing after all.

That’s the conclusion of a new study that examines how accurately satellites and floating ocean instruments track the flow of energy from the sun to Earth and back again.

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563 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Open-mindedness is the wrong(?) approach

Posted on January 23, 2012 by curryja | 653 comments

by Judith Curry

Naomi Oreskes:

When it comes to climate change, openmindedness is the wrong approach.

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653 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Climate Classroom

Posted on January 20, 2012 by curryja | 442 comments

by Judith Curry

Some news from the climate education front this week.

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442 Comments

Posted in Communication

Not 100% sure?

Posted on January 19, 2012 by curryja | 221 comments

by Judith Curry

The drunk notoriously searches for his keys not in the dark where he dropped them, but under the lamp-post where he can see. This is an apt metaphor for much of what is written on the subject of risk management.

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221 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

Questions on research integrity and scientific responsibility

Posted on January 18, 2012 by curryja | 138 comments

by Judith Curry

Earlier today via email, I received the following list of questions on research integrity and scientific responsibility.

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138 Comments

Posted in Ethics

2 perspectives on communicating climate science

Posted on January 18, 2012 by curryja | 324 comments

by Judith Curry

This past week, two climate scientists have presented different perspectives on communicating climate science: Richard Betts and Gavin Schmidt.

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324 Comments

Posted in Communication

Is it necessary to lie to win a controversial public debate?

Posted on January 16, 2012 by curryja | 310 comments

by Judith Curry

Serge Galam provides a disturbing answer to this question.

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310 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Radical essays on science & technology

Posted on January 15, 2012 by curryja | 326 comments

by Judith Curry

The Dublin based Livewire Publications has produced a new collection of essays titled Science & Capital – Radical Essays on Science & Technology, with the intention to;

“bring together some of the more radical essays on science and technology written over the years – so as to highlight some of the dangers inherent in the blind trust we are often encouraged to place in science and scientific experts”.

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326 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Historical perspective on the Russian heat wave

Posted on January 14, 2012 by curryja | 160 comments

by Paul Farquharson

From about the fifth century A.D. onwards, the Western tradition of history writing preserves abundant descriptions of weather and climate phenomena in sources such as Chronicles, Annals and Histories. If this material is left out of our understanding and memory of climate, then contemporary extreme events may be mistaken for unique or unprecedented events.

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160 Comments

Posted in History

False(?) Positives

Posted on January 12, 2012 by curryja | 248 comments

by Judith Curry

In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not.

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248 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Geoengineering for decision makers

Posted on January 11, 2012 by curryja | 234 comments

by Judith Curry

The most fundamental argument for R&D on geoengineering is that those decision makers should not be put in a position of either letting dangerous climate change occur or deploying poorly evaluated, untested technologies at scale. At the very least, we need to learn what approaches to avoid even if desperate.

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234 Comments

Posted in Policy

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and maximum entropy production in the Earth system

Posted on January 10, 2012 by curryja | 364 comments

by Judith Curry

Albert Einstein on thermodynamics:

A theory is more impressive the greater the simplicity of its premises, the more different are the kinds of things it relates, and the more extended its range of applicability. Therefore, the deep impression which classical thermodynamics made on me. It is the only physical theory of universal content, which I am convinced, that within the framework of applicability of its basic concepts will never be overthrown.

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364 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Too big to know

Posted on January 9, 2012 by curryja | 249 comments

by Judith Curry

Update: see new cartoon by Josh at the bottom of the post

the massive amounts of data necessary to deal with complex phenomena exceed any single brain’s ability to grasp, yet networked science rolls on.

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249 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Sociology of science: Keep standards high

Posted on January 8, 2012 by curryja | 249 comments

by Judith Curry

The rise of digital media has revolutionized the management of information and created opportunities for broader involvement in science’s production.

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249 Comments

Posted in Open knowledge

China Rejects Paying EU ETS Carbon Emissions Surcharge

Posted on January 7, 2012 by curryja | 327 comments

by John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com

Ever since the global recession began in 2008, suggestions of an imminent trade war erupting between China and its trading partners have been increasingly rising.

Now the first shot in trade disputes has been fired. By China.

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327 Comments

Posted in Energy

Energy Security: Eight Strategic Factors to Consider for 2012

Posted on January 6, 2012 by curryja | 121 comments

by Judith Curry

In pondering what might happen in 2012 in terms of energy and climate policy, oilprice.com suggests that stove-piped analysis of individual strategic sectors (e.g. energy) is inadequate, and we need to consider the broad global strategic environment.

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121 Comments

Posted in Energy

The new climate dice

Posted on January 6, 2012 by curryja | 221 comments

by Judith Curry

“Climate dice”, describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively “loaded” in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased.

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221 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Error cascade

Posted on January 5, 2012 by curryja | 424 comments

by Judith Curry

So…how do you tell when a research field is in the grip of an error cascade? The most general indicator I know is consilience failures. Eventually, one of the factoids generated by an error cascade is going to collide with a well-established piece of evidence from another research field that is not subject to the same groupthink.

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424 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science