Category Archives: Oceans

Conclusion from Michael Mann’s new paper: “We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.”

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140 Comments

Posted in Causation, Oceans

Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans

Posted on June 9, 2020 by curryja | 69 comments

by Judith Curry

Peter Webster’s magnum opus is now published: Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans.

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69 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome

Posted on September 25, 2019 by niclewis | 152 comments

By Nic Lewis

The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.

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152 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Tagged Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Geothermal ocean warming discussion thread

Posted on July 21, 2019 by curryja | 210 comments

by Judith Curry

“The atmosphere bias of climate science makes it impossible for them to see geological forces and therefore, impossible for them to understand the earth’s climate.” – Thongchai

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210 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Oceans

Sea level rise whiplash

Posted on February 8, 2019 by curryja | 112 comments

by Judith Curry

Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

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112 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

Posted on January 21, 2019 by niclewis | 92 comments

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.

Contrary to what the paper indicates:

Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

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92 Comments

Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans

Ocean Heat Content Surprises

Posted on January 14, 2019 by curryja | 271 comments

by Judith Curry

There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications.

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271 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Sea levels, atmospheric pressure and land temperature during glacial maxima

Posted on January 4, 2019 by curryja | 86 comments

by Alan Cannell

The new tropical lands: a carbon sink during formation and huge source of carbon dioxide and methane when lost to the sea.

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86 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

Posted on November 29, 2018 by curryja | 145 comments

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

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145 Comments

Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

Posted on November 27, 2018 by curryja | 193 comments

by Judith Curry

I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

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193 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Oceans

Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

Posted on November 23, 2018 by niclewis | 47 comments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading →

47 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

Posted on November 17, 2018 by niclewis | 47 comments

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O₂/N₂ ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPO_Obs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPO_Climate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPO_Climate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPO_Climate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading →

47 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Resplandy et al. Part 2: Regression in the presence of trend and scale systematic errors

Posted on November 7, 2018 by niclewis | 167 comments

by Nic Lewis

In a recent article I set out why I thought that the trend in ΔAPO_Climate was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated, in the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake study. In this article I expand on the brief explanation of the points made about “trend errors” and “scale systematic errors” given in my original article, as these are key issues involved in estimating the trend in ΔAPO_Climate and its uncertainty.

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167 Comments

Posted in Oceans

A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

Posted on November 6, 2018 by niclewis | 410 comments

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading →

410 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Sea level rise: isostatic adjustment

Posted on June 23, 2018 by curryja | 121 comments

by Judith Curry

A discussion thread to ponder the uncertainties in glacial isostatic adjustment and the implications for past and future sea level rise.

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121 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VII U.S. coastal impacts

Posted on April 15, 2018 by curryja | 96 comments

by Judith Curry

The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

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96 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Oceans

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

Posted on April 2, 2018 by curryja | 333 comments

by Judith Curry

The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

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333 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

Posted on March 21, 2018 by curryja | 134 comments

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise is too little, too late, and too linear. – Walter Munk

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134 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Oceans

Will advances in groundwater science force a paradigm shift in sea level rise attribution?

Posted on March 4, 2018 by curryja | 117 comments

by Jim Steele

A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and thermal expansion.

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117 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Oceans

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part IV – Satellite era record

Posted on February 17, 2018 by curryja | 207 comments

by Judith Curry

Part IV of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise focuses on the satellite era (since 1993), including the recent causes of sea level variations and arguments regarding the acceleration (or not) of recent sea level rise.

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207 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans