Category Archives: Oceans

Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans

by Judith Curry

Peter Webster’s magnum opus is now published: Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans.

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Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome

By Nic Lewis

The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.

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Geothermal ocean warming discussion thread

by Judith Curry

“The atmosphere bias of climate science makes it impossible for them to see geological forces and therefore, impossible for them to understand the earth’s climate.” – Thongchai

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Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry

Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

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Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.

Contrary to what the paper indicates:

  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

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Ocean Heat Content Surprises

by Judith Curry

There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications.

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Sea levels, atmospheric pressure and land temperature during glacial maxima

by Alan Cannell

The new tropical lands: a carbon sink during formation and huge source of carbon dioxide and methane when lost to the sea.

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Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

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Special Report on Sea Level Rise

by Judith Curry

I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

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Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO2 concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPOObs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPOClimate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPOClimate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPOClimate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading

Resplandy et al. Part 2: Regression in the presence of trend and scale systematic errors

by Nic Lewis

In a recent article I set out why I thought that the trend in ΔAPOClimate was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated, in the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake study. In this article I expand on the brief explanation of the points made about “trend errors” and “scale systematic errors” given in my original article, as these are key issues involved in estimating the trend in ΔAPOClimate and its uncertainty.

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A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are. Continue reading

Sea level rise: isostatic adjustment

by Judith Curry

A discussion thread to ponder the uncertainties in glacial isostatic adjustment and the implications for past and future sea level rise.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VII U.S. coastal impacts

by Judith Curry

The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry

The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise is too little, too late, and too linear. – Walter Munk

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Will advances in groundwater science force a paradigm shift in sea level rise attribution?

by Jim Steele

 A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and thermal expansion.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part IV – Satellite era record

by Judith Curry

Part IV of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise focuses on the satellite era (since 1993), including the recent causes of sea level variations and arguments regarding the acceleration (or not) of recent sea level rise.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part III – 19th & 20th century observations

By Judith Curry

We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Munk 

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part II – The geological record

By Judith Curry

Part II of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise –the geological record provides context for the recent sea level rise.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction

by Judith Curry

Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

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Steve Koonin: A Deceptive New Report on Climate

by Judith Curry

Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.

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Uncertainties in sea surface temperatures

by Judith Curry

Two new papers have focused on the quality, uncertainties and  interpretation of global sea surface temperature data.

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How Gaia and coral reefs regulate ocean pH

by Jim Steele

Although some researchers have raised concerns about possible negative effects of rising CO2 on ocean surface pH, there are several lines of evidence demonstrating marine ecosystems are far more sensitive to fluxes of carbon dioxide from ocean depths and the biosphere’s response than from invasions of atmospheric CO2. There is also ample evidence that lower pH does not inhibit photosynthesis or lower ocean productivity (Mackey 2015). On the contrary, rising CO2 makes photosynthesis less costly.

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