Category Archives: IPCC

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.

Contrary to what the paper indicates:

  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

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Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis

An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections.

AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations indicate that it would halve. Continue reading

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis

A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights statements in SR15 relating to carbon emission budgets for meeting the 1.5°C and 2°C targets.

It seems fairly extraordinary to me that the AR5 post-2010 carbon budget for 1.5°C, which was only published four years ago, has in effect been now been increased by ~700 GtCO2 – equal to 21st century emissions to date – despite SR15’s projections of future warming being based very largely on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) range exhibited by the models used in AR5. Continue reading

1.5 degrees

by Judith Curry

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C  is now published [link].

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Manufacturing consensus: the early history of the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Short summary: scientists sought political relevance and allowed policy makers to put a big thumb on the scale of the scientific assessment of the attribution of climate change.

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IPCC in transition

by Judith Curry

Will Pachauri’s karma run over IPCC’s dogma? – Peter Foster

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‘Most’ versus ‘more than half’ versus ‘> 50%’

by Judith Curry

Seeking once again to clarify the problems in communicating the IPCC climate change attribution statements.

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