Category Archives: Consensus

Re-evaluating the manufacture of the climate consensus

by Judith Curry

A new book by Oppenheimer, Oreskes et al. entitled ‘Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy‘ makes a case against consensus seeking in climate science assessments.

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Gallery

Extremes

by Judith Curry Politics versus science in attributing extreme weather events to manmade global warming.

Hearing on the Biodiversity Report

by Judith Curry

The House Natural Resources Committee Subcommittee on Water, Oceans and Wildlife is holding a Hearing today on Responding to the Global Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

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National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry

“You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine Hayhoe, co-author of the 4th National Climate Assessment Report.

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Manufacturing consensus: the early history of the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Short summary: scientists sought political relevance and allowed policy makers to put a big thumb on the scale of the scientific assessment of the attribution of climate change.

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Consensus enforcers versus the Trump administration

by Judith Curry

Tough days on The Hill for the enforcers of the climate consensus.

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The Republic of Science

by Judith Curry

The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it. – Michael Polanyi (1962)

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The paradox of the climate change consensus

by Judith Curry

In our view, the fact that so many scientists agree so closely about the [causes of the] earth’s warming is, itself, evidence of a lack of evidence for [human caused] global warming. – D. Ryan Brumberg and Matthew Brumberg

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New AMS members survey on climate change

by Judith Curry

The American Meteorological Society has issued a draft report on the results from a survey of the views of their membership on climate change.

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History and the limits of the climate consensus

by Judith Curry

Acknowledging the science of global warming does not require accepting that it is immune to criticism.

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What is there a 97% consensus about?

by Frank Hobbs (franktoo)

At the Senate Hearing on “Dogma and Data”, dogma about the 97% consensus went unchallenged. Democratic Senators constantly recited the phrase “97% consensus”, but it is not clear whether they – or their Republican opponents – had the slightest idea what the phrase meant: 97% of what group support a consensus about exactly what?

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Climate culture

by Andy West

A frequent topic at Climate Etc. is the ‘consensus.’ An argument is presented here that the climate consensus is as much about culture as it is about climate science.

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Adjudicating scientific disputes in climate science

by Judith Curry

The limits of judicial competence and the risk of taking sides

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Adjudicating the future: silencing climate dissent via the courts

by Judith Curry

A British academic wants an international court to declare climate skeptics wrong, once and for all.

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Structured expert judgment

by Judith Curry

Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. –  Willy Aspinall

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The conceits of consensus

by Judith Curry

Critiques, the 3%, and is 47 the new 97?

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Climate Change, Epistemic Trust, and Expert Trustworthiness

by Judith Curry

Among the best indirect indicators available to nonexperts is the overwhelming numbers of scientists testifying to anthropogenic climate change. Yet the evidential significance of such clear numbers turns substantially on our nonexpert assessment of these scientists’ trustworthiness. Absent trust, even without active distrust, the numbers’ evidential weight drops considerably. – Ben Almassi

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Is the EPA’s Clean Power Plan legal? Lawyers and law professors disagree

by Judith Curry

We polled 130 environmental attorneys and law professors from around the country about the legality of the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Clean Power Plan. The results might surprise you. – Brian Potts and Abigail Barnes

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A key admission regarding climate memes

by Andy West

Lewandowsky and Oreskes raise the prospect that via the agency of memes, the climate Consensus with its high certainty of danger, could be a socially generated artifact and not a scientific fact.

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Scientists speaking with one voice: panacea or pathology?

by Judith Curry

The authority of a scientific body is not undermined by questioning, but rather depends upon it – Beatty & Moore

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Against ‘consensus’ messaging

by Judith Curry

A decades’ experience shows that “Consensus messaging” doesn’t work. – Dan Kahan

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Ethics of climate expertise

by Judith Curry

If deference to the authoritative opinions of experts is essential to our rationality and knowledge, and if that deference unavoidably rests on trust, not only in the competence, but also in the epistemic and ethical characters of our experts–then it is high time that we get to work on the ethics of expertise. Indeed, it is past time. – John Hardwig

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Contradiction on emotional bias in the climate domain

by Andy West

Emotions and messaging about climate change.

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Climate psychology’s consensus bias

by Andy West

Climate psychologists have for years now puzzled over public inaction on climate change and also what makes skeptics tick (or sick), apparently making little progress on these issues.

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Groups and herds: implications for the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Group failures often have disastrous consequences—not merely for businesses, nonprofits, and governments, but for all those affected by them. – Cass Sunstein and Reid Hastie

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