Category Archives: IPCC

The IPCC’s ‘inconvenient truth’

by Judith Curry

I have a fairly lengthy op-ed that has been published in The Australian.

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Peer review: the skeptic filter

by Judith Curry

As the IPCC struggles with its inconvenient truth – the pause and the growing discrepancy between models and observations – the obvious question is: why is the IPCC just starting to grapple with this issue now, essentially two minutes before midnite of the release of the AR5?

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Quote of the week

by Judith Curry

I can envisage an irony of history where climatology enters a period of crisis and loses its central place in public discourse about climate change, thus opening up discursive spaces for pragmatic options to deal with the problem. – Reiner Grundman

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Leaked IPCC report discussed in the MSM

by Judith Curry

I’m not sure what the IPCC expected when they leaked their report to ‘friendly’ journalists, but I suspect that it was not this article by David Rose,

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Laframboise’s new book on the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Could we switch to the grownup channel, please? – Donna Laframboise.

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Pause politics

by Judith Curry

U.S. and European Union envoys are seeking more clarity from the United Nations on a slowdown in global warming that climate skeptics have cited as a reason not to “panic” about environmental changes, leaked documents show.

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FT on the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Pilita Clark has written a thoughtful post  at the Financial Times entitled What climate scientists talk about now, with subtitle “As the IPCC prepares to release its latest report, Pilita Clark meets some of the key scientists behind it.”

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IPCC discussion thread

by Judith Curry

The Fifth Assessment has been a particularly turbulent period for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). . .  but the pace at which the world changes is stepping up, and we can be sure that the IPCC must adapt to these changes if it still wants to retain significance in the future.

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McKitrick on the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Ross McKitrick writes:

I am pleased to announce the publication of a report I have written that provides systematic detail on the procedures of the IPCC and makes the case for reforming them. My study, called What is Wrong With the IPCC? A Proposal for Radical Reform, was published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the U.K., and includes a foreword by the Hon. John Howard, former prime minister of Australia.

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IPCC discussion thread

by Tony Brown

Posts in the thread on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC have raised a basic question regarding the credibility of the IPCC as the world’s foremost source of information on climate, and hence its future relevance.

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Representative Concentration Pathways

by Judith Curry

“Representative concentration pathways” is the new phrase for what the IPCC used to refer to as “emissions scenarios.”  Lets take a look at the new RCP’s being used for the AR5.

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Critique of the IPCC Report on Renewable Energy

by Judith Curry

Over at BraveNewClimate, Ted Trainer provides the most detailed critique I’ve seen of the recent IPCC Report on Renewable Energy.

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IPCC’s problems at the top

by David Ritson

After the Copenhagen meeting and Himalaya-gate the IPCC has been faced with serious credibility problems. Himalayan-gate was largely dismissed by the establishment loyalists as a minor error that slipped through the system and was then corrected. What was so disquieting was not he occurrence of a mistake but the subsequent reaction of the IPCC chairman, Dr. Pachauri. Dr Pachauri, when questioned in an interview (youtube), not only reaffirmed the correctness of the original report but characterized the Indian government report, whose disaster-predictions were measured in centuries not decades, as “voodoo science”. Only after a month’s delay, and under pressure, was the mistake admitted (youtube).

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IPCC’s new protocol for addressing possible errors

by Judith Curry

Nic Lewis sent me the following message in an email:

I have some news to report on a response to the letter forming this post from the IPCC authors.  Gabi Hegerl, joint coordinating lead author of Chapter 9, emailed me late yesterday afternoon to say that she had brought my letter to the attention of the WG1 AR5 Co-Chairs to initiate the appropriate handling of the alleged error, and that it will be dealt with in accordance with the recently approved “IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors in IPCC Assessment Reports, Synthesis Reports, Special Reports or Methodology Reports.

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The IPCC’s alteration of Forster & Gregory’s model-independent climate sensitivity results

by Nicholas Lewis

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 (AR4) contained various errors, including the well publicised overestimate of the speed at which Himalayan glaciers would melt. However, the IPCC’s defenders point out that such errors were inadvertent and inconsequential: they did not undermine the scientific basis of AR4. Here I demonstrate an error in the core scientific report (WGI) that came about through the IPCC’s alteration of a peer-reviewed result.  This error is highly consequential, since it involves the only instrumental evidence that is climate-model independent  cited by the IPCC as to the probability distribution of climate sensitivity, and it substantially increases the apparent risk of high warming from increases in CO2 concentration.

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Conflict of interest guidelines for the IPCC

by Judith Curry

The current issues surrounding conflict of interest guidelines for the IPCC are summarized in this recent news release from the U.S. House Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight:

Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Chairman Paul Broun (R-GA) today sent a letter to United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, calling for the adoption of a Conflict of Interest Policy for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 

“Despite my previous requests for the IPCC to adopt and enforce more stringent policies related to conflicts of interest and the use and citation of ‘gray literature,’ the IPCC has delayed action.”        

In the letter, Broun wrote that it is “imperative for the IPCC to adopt a rigorous conflict of interest policy before its 34th Session, tentatively scheduled to take place in January 2012.” 

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An opening mind. Part II

by Judith Curry

Mark Lynas has a new post up entitled “Questions the IPCC must now urgently answer.”  It is even more powerful than his previous post.  I may not be able to predict the climate, but I think I can predict certain outcomes in the climate debate.

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Uncertainty and the IPCC

by Judith Curry

Two previous threads (here and here) have presented sections of my draft paper on Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.  Here is an additional section on Uncertainty and the IPCC.

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IPCC as a knowledge monopoly

by Judith Curry

There have been numerous criticisms of the IPCC and proposals for change.  One of the most interesting anlayses of the issues surrounding the IPCC is this paper by Richard Tol entitled “Regulating Knowledge Monopolies: The Case of the IPCC.”

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An opening mind

by Judith Curry

I suspect that many readers of this blog have already seen Steve McIntyre’s post “IPCC and the Greenpeace Karaoke” that identified Greenpeace as the source of a key recommendation on renewable energy in the recently released IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.

Such IPCC transgressions are becoming sufficiently regular that they barely seem like news anymore.  The reaction of Mark Lynas to McIntyre’s analysis, however, is indeed news IMO.

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U.S. to kill funding for the IPCC?

by Judith Curry

Rick Piltz at Climate Science Watch reports that the U.S. House of Representatives votes 244-179 to kill funding for the UN IPCC.

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Uncertainty and the IPCC AR5

by  Judith Curry

I am starting to see some encouraging signs that people (including the IPCC) are paying more attention to the uncertainty issue as it relates to climate change.  Nature has an editorial on this issue that summarizes the situation as:

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Do IPCC’s emission scenarios fail to comply with the precautionary principle?

by Judith Curry

On the uncertainty monster thread, a scenario was defined as a plausible but unverifiable description of how the system and/or its driving forces may develop in the future.  Scenarios may be regarded as a range of discrete possibilities, often with no a priori allocation of likelihood.  An example is the future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used to force global climate models.

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No consensus on consensus

by Judith Curry

Towards providing a robust scientific basis for climate policy, the United Nations initiated a scientific consensus building process under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), which consisted of an intergovernmental multidisciplinary panel of experts.

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