Category Archives: Uncategorized

Coronavirus discussion thread

by Judith Curry

Discuss.

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Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

by Frank Bosse

Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data.

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Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

By Nic Lewis

In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy available here). I wrote that I would defer dealing with the differences between observed and CMIP5 model-simulated historical warming, which formed the basis of CJ20’s numerical analysis, until a subsequent article. I now do so. Continue reading

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

By Nic Lewis

The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading or definitely incorrect.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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Beto’s climate action plan

by Judith Curry

Beto O’Rourke’s Climate Change Plan deserves a close look.

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What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry

Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have missed, that could turn out to be real outcomes? Are there too many unknowns for us to have confidence that we have credibly identified the worst case? What threshold of plausibility or credibility should be used when assessing these extreme scenarios for policy making and risk management?

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Hurricanes and Climate Change: Attribution

by Judith Curry

Part II:  what causes variations and changes in hurricane activity?

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The most amazing greening on Earth

by Patrick J. Michaels

We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):

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The debate. Part II

by Judith Curry

Countdown to the ‘conversation’ between Mann, Titley, Moore, Curry.  Looks like you can now register for the live broadcast, for a fee of $10 [link].

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Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken

By Nic Lewis

Plain language summary

  • A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method can vary widely due to internal climate system variability.
  • I calculated what effect the uncertainty implied by the internal variability affecting the MPI‑ESM1.1 simulations had on the distribution of the primary climate sensitivity estimate in the recent Lewis & Curry energy-budget paper.
  • The result was a marginal narrowing of the Lewis & Curry sensitivity estimate. This is because the allowance for internal variability by Lewis & Curry is larger than internal variability in MPI‑ESM1.1.
  • Since historical period energy-budget sensitivity estimates are much more  imprecise for other reasons, internal variability contributes little to their total uncertainty; it is an unimportant factor.
  • Nothing in the new Dessler et al. paper indicates that the Lewis & Curry energy-budget climate sensitivity estimates are likely to be biased low.

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Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis

We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.  The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.

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Nature Unbound V – The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle

by Javier

The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.

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Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

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Week in review – water edition

by Judith Curry

A round-up of recent articles from around the world about water — too little, too much, plus new technology and policy ideas.

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Merry Xmas

by Judith Curry

My very best wishes to all during the holiday season, whatever you might be celebrating.

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Balance and the Grid

by Planning Engineer and Jill Tietjen

The power system is a matter of extreme importance relating to economic development, quality of life as well as health and safety. In order to best meet the needs of any given area, it is necessary to balance the factors of economics, reliability and public responsibility. An imbalance in any area will lead to repercussions in other areas and may, in fact, prove to be counterproductive across all areas.

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U.S. Presidential discussion thread. Part XIII

by Judith Curry

Plus UK and Australia political issues.

U.S. Presidential discussion thread. Part X

by Judith Curry

Today marks the end of the Presidential primary season.

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Week in review – policy and politics edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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U.S. presidential discussion thread: Part II

by Judith Curry

The U.S. presidential primaries continue to heat up.

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State of the blog discussion thread

by Judith Curry

So, what are your thoughts on the current state of Climate Etc., and how it might evolve?

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Week in review – water edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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Renewables and grid reliability

by Planning Engineer

The costs of major grid outages are staggering and recovery from such outages is challenging; therefore the North American grids are planned and operated to ensure high levels of reliability.

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The Climate of XMAS

by Judith Curry

My very best wishes to all of you for the holiday season.

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