Category Archives: Uncertainty

The art and science of climate model tuning

Posted on August 1, 2016 by | 174 comments

by Judith Curry

We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.

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174 Comments

Posted in climate models, Uncertainty

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

Posted on April 28, 2016 by | 407 comments

by Judith Curry

When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer

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407 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

(Mis) communicating science in public controversies

Posted on February 7, 2016 by | 330 comments

by Judith Curry

Bringing uncertainty to the public debate or putting the credibility of climate science at risk matters less to them than interest groups misusing or the public misinterpreting their results. – Senja Post

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330 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

Climate models and precautionary measures

Posted on January 5, 2016 by | 226 comments

by Judith Curry

Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb

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226 Comments

Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty

A War Against Fire

Posted on January 1, 2016 by | 395 comments

by Judith Curry

The most savage controversies are those as to which there is no good evidence either way. -Bertrand Russell

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395 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

A perspective on uncertainty and climate science

Posted on October 11, 2015 by | 155 comments

by Marcia Wyatt

This past summer I was asked to give a presentation on science and ethics. The person who asked me was motivated by the Pope’s encyclical, the comments regarding climate change.

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155 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Structured expert judgment

Posted on October 7, 2015 by | 176 comments

by Judith Curry

Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. –  Willy Aspinall

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176 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty

New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science

Posted on September 20, 2015 by | 561 comments

by Judith Curry

Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science is an important new book that everyone should read.  And its free.

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561 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Uncertainty

Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

Posted on September 7, 2015 by | 169 comments

by Judith Curry

Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

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169 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations

Posted on July 15, 2015 by | 605 comments

by Judith Curry

How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.

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605 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Science, uncertainty and advocacy

Posted on June 22, 2015 by | 535 comments

by Judith Curry

I’m attending an interesting conference in Nottingham:  Circling the square: universities, the media, citizens and politics.

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535 Comments

Posted in Communication, Policy, Uncertainty

Driving in the dark

Posted on June 10, 2015 by | 367 comments

by Judith Curry

Long-term strategies should be built not on “visions” of the future but instead on the premise that longer term predictions (that is, forecasts of situations years and decades out), however presently credible, will probably prove wrong. – Richard Danzig

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367 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Improving climate change communication: moving beyond scientific certainty

Posted on June 8, 2015 by | 252 comments

by Judith Curry

A new report from The University of Nottingham looks at whether climate scientists threaten their own scientific credibility when trying to make their research accessible to members of the public.

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252 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

Stalking the uncertainty monster

Posted on April 23, 2015 by | 166 comments

by Judith Curry

Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.

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166 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

We are all confident idiots

Posted on November 13, 2014 by | 725 comments

by Judith Curry

Stumbling through all our cognitive clutter just to recognize a true “I don’t know” may not constitute failure as much as it does an enviable success, a crucial signpost that shows us we are traveling in the right direction toward the truth. – David Dunning

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725 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Cognitive bias – how petroleum scientists deal with it

Posted on November 3, 2014 by | 385 comments

by Peter Rose

Everyone complains about the Weather but nobody does anything about it!

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385 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Bertrand Russell’s 10 commandments

Posted on October 31, 2014 by | 397 comments

by Judith Curry

Here is some more help for climate scientists suffering from pre-traumatic stress syndrome.

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397 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

Posted on September 24, 2014 by | 543 comments

by Judith Curry

Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

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543 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty

Why scientists should talk to philosophers

Posted on July 16, 2014 by | 295 comments

by Judith Curry

The divorce between philosophers and scientists is fairly recent.  Its time for a reconciliation.

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295 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

IPCC and treatment of uncertainties

Posted on July 11, 2014 by | 135 comments

by Judith Curry

A new review paper on the IPCC and treatment of uncertainties.

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135 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Overconfidence(?)

Posted on July 2, 2014 by | 803 comments

by Judith Curry

Yet not once has overconfidence by actual scientists been demonstrated. You just keep making that up. – Chris Colose

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803 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty

Posted on June 6, 2014 by | 270 comments

by Judith Curry

The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

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270 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Worst case scenario versus fat tail

Posted on April 18, 2014 by | 383 comments

by Judith Curry

 If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

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383 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

The Fundamental Uncertainties of Climate Change

Posted on January 8, 2014 by | 772 comments

by Garth Paltridge

There is more than enough uncertainty about the forecasting of climate to allow normal human beings to be at least reasonably hopeful that global warming might not be nearly as bad as is currently touted.  Climate scientists, and indeed scientists in general, are not so lucky.  They have a lot to lose if time should prove them wrong.

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772 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

Posted on December 12, 2013 by | 276 comments

by Judith Curry

. . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and Jerome Ravetz

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276 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty