Category Archives: Uncertainty

(Mis) communicating science in public controversies

by Judith Curry

Bringing uncertainty to the public debate or putting the credibility of climate science at risk matters less to them than interest groups misusing or the public misinterpreting their results. – Senja Post

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Climate models and precautionary measures

by Judith Curry

Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb

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A War Against Fire

by Judith Curry

The most savage controversies are those as to which there is no good evidence either way. -Bertrand Russell

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A perspective on uncertainty and climate science

by Marcia Wyatt

This past summer I was asked to give a presentation on science and ethics. The person who asked me was motivated by the Pope’s encyclical, the comments regarding climate change.

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Structured expert judgment

by Judith Curry

Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. –  Willy Aspinall

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New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science

by Judith Curry

Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science is an important new book that everyone should read.  And its free.

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Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

by Judith Curry

Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

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Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations

by Judith Curry

How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.

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Science, uncertainty and advocacy

by Judith Curry

I’m attending an interesting conference in Nottingham:  Circling the square: universities, the media, citizens and politics.

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Driving in the dark

by Judith Curry

Long-term strategies should be built not on “visions” of the future but instead on the premise that longer term predictions (that is, forecasts of situations years and decades out), however presently credible, will probably prove wrong. – Richard Danzig

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Improving climate change communication: moving beyond scientific certainty

by Judith Curry

A new report from The University of Nottingham looks at whether climate scientists threaten their own scientific credibility when trying to make their research accessible to members of the public.

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Stalking the uncertainty monster

by Judith Curry

Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.

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We are all confident idiots

by Judith Curry

Stumbling through all our cognitive clutter just to recognize a true “I don’t know” may not constitute failure as much as it does an enviable success, a crucial signpost that shows us we are traveling in the right direction toward the truth. – David Dunning

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Cognitive bias – how petroleum scientists deal with it

by Peter Rose

Everyone complains about the Weather but nobody does anything about it!

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Bertrand Russell’s 10 commandments

by Judith Curry

Here is some more help for climate scientists suffering from pre-traumatic stress syndrome.

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Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

by Judith Curry

Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

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Why scientists should talk to philosophers

by Judith Curry

The divorce between philosophers and scientists is fairly recent.  Its time for a reconciliation.

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IPCC and treatment of uncertainties

by Judith Curry

A new review paper on the IPCC and treatment of uncertainties.

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Overconfidence(?)

by Judith Curry

Yet not once has overconfidence by actual scientists been demonstrated. You just keep making that up. – Chris Colose

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World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty

by Judith Curry

The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

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Worst case scenario versus fat tail

by Judith Curry

 If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

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The Fundamental Uncertainties of Climate Change

by Garth Paltridge

There is more than enough uncertainty about the forecasting of climate to allow normal human beings to be at least reasonably hopeful that global warming might not be nearly as bad as is currently touted.  Climate scientists, and indeed scientists in general, are not so lucky.  They have a lot to lose if time should prove them wrong.

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Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

by Judith Curry

. . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and Jerome Ravetz

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Public engagement and communicating uncertainty

by Judith Curry

Some interesting discussion this past week on the topic of public engagement and communicating climate uncertainty.

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Reflection on reliability of climate models

by Judith Curry

Failure to communicate the relevant ‘weak link’ is sometimes under-appreciated as a critical element of science-based policy-making.

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