Category Archives: Uncertainty

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

Posted on December 12, 2013 by | 276 comments

by Judith Curry

. . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and Jerome Ravetz

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276 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Public engagement and communicating uncertainty

Posted on December 8, 2013 by | 349 comments

by Judith Curry

Some interesting discussion this past week on the topic of public engagement and communicating climate uncertainty.

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349 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

Reflection on reliability of climate models

Posted on November 25, 2013 by | 403 comments

by Judith Curry

Failure to communicate the relevant ‘weak link’ is sometimes under-appreciated as a critical element of science-based policy-making.

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403 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Fallacies of risk

Posted on November 20, 2013 by | 201 comments

by Judith Curry

In addition to traditional fallacies such as ad hominem, discussions of risk contain logical and argumentative fallacies that are specific to the subject-matter. Ten such fallacies are identified, that can commonly be found in public debates on risk. They are named as follows: the sheer size fallacy, the converse sheer size fallacy, the fallacy of naturalness, the ostrich’s fallacy, the proof-seeking fallacy, the delay fallacy, the technocratic fallacy, the consensus fallacy, the fallacy of pricing, and the infallability fallacy. – Sven Ove Hansson

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201 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

Posted on November 13, 2013 by | 803 comments

by Judith Curry

Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

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803 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

Uncertain future of climate uncertainty

Posted on October 17, 2013 by | 191 comments

by Judith Curry

How believable are the IPCC’s continually increasing confidence levels?

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191 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

True courage(?)

Posted on September 6, 2013 by | 271 comments

by Judith Curry

True courage is knowing when you’re wrong but refusing to admit it. – The Onion

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271 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty

Inadequate uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments

Posted on August 30, 2013 by | 95 comments

by Judith Curry

Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in assessments of climate change.

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95 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

I know I’m right (?)

Posted on August 26, 2013 by | 495 comments

by Judith Curry

A behavioral view of overconfidence.

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495 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

JC on NPR

Posted on August 22, 2013 by | 719 comments

I have an interview tonite on NPR’s All Things Considered.

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719 Comments

Posted in Communication, Policy, Politics, Uncertainty

Uncertainty: lost in translation

Posted on July 29, 2013 by | 201 comments

by Judith Curry

We have looked at what uncertainty means and doesn’t mean in science, how it is measured, when it can’t be measured and how that might change through research into the big questions. Above all we asked how other people can grapple constructively with advances in knowledge and changes in thinking, instead of despairing at ‘those uncertain scientists’. – Tracey Brown and Tabitha Innocent

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201 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Certainly not!

Posted on July 17, 2013 by | 212 comments

by Judith Curry

Good science requires cultivating doubt and finding pleasure in mystery. – Stuart Firestein

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212 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

How should we interpret an ensemble of models? Part II: Climate models

Posted on June 30, 2013 by | 122 comments

by Judith Curry

To solve these pressing problems, there needs to be much better recognition of the importance of probability models in climate science and a more integrated view of climate modelling whereby climate prediction involves the fusion of numerical climate models and statistical models. – Stephenson et al.

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122 Comments

Posted in climate models, Uncertainty

Spinning the climate model – observation comparison

Posted on February 22, 2013 by | 1,225 comments

by Judith Curry

In the past 6 months or so, we have seen numerous different plots of the CMIP5 climate model simulations versus observations.

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1,225 Comments

Posted in climate models, Communication, Uncertainty

Stratospheric uncertainty

Posted on December 9, 2012 by | 495 comments

by Judith Curry

The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. – Thompson et al.

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495 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

Uncertainty in observations of the Earth’s energy balance

Posted on November 5, 2012 by | 610 comments

by Judith Curry

This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. – Graeme Stephens et al.

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610 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

Italian seismologists: guilty(?)

Posted on October 23, 2012 by | 188 comments

by Judith Curry

Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L’Aquila. – BBC

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188 Comments

Posted in Communication, Ethics, Uncertainty

Alternative approach to assessing climate risks

Posted on October 15, 2012 by | 63 comments

by Judith Curry

At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even fit for the purpose. An alternative to the scenario- led strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis (“stress test”), may identify practical options for resource managers. – Brown and Wilby

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63 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Communicating uncertainties in natural hazards research

Posted on October 10, 2012 by | 141 comments

by Judith Curry

Tell me what you know.  Tell me what you don’t know.  Then tell me what you think.  Always distinguish which is which. – Colin Powell

141 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

Posted on October 2, 2012 by | 290 comments

by Judith Curry

Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.

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290 Comments

Posted in Prediction, Uncertainty

Uncertainty in health impacts of climate change

Posted on September 20, 2012 by | 320 comments

by Judith Curry

Health risks arise from the interaction of uncertain future climatic changes with complex ecological, physical, and socio-economic systems, which are simultaneously affected by numerous other changes, e.g. globalisation, demographic changes, and changes in land use, nutrition, health care quality. Policymaking on adaptation to health risks of climate change thus faces substantial uncertainty. – Wardekker et al.

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320 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Uncertainty

No consensus on consensus: Part II

Posted on July 13, 2012 by | 1,045 comments

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write a paper on the topic of consensus in climate change.

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1,045 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Policy, Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Psychology of Uncertainty

Posted on June 10, 2012 by | 284 comments

by Judith Curry

When we fail to distinguish between discovering order IN nature and imposing order ON nature, we have lost relationship with the very thing we yearn to know. Whereas once we were students of nature, looking to her for meaning, we now denigrate her in the belief that it is our inalienable right to have dominion. – Kerry Gordon

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284 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Uncertainty is not your friend (?)

Posted on June 6, 2012 by | 419 comments

by Judith Curry

It is very clear that uncertainty is no one’s friend. We have seen that greater uncertainty about the evolution of the climate should give us even greater cause for concern. We have seen that all other things being equal, greater uncertainty means that things could be worse than we thought. We have also seen that greater uncertainty means that the expected damages from climate change will necessarily be greater than anticipated, and that the allowance we must make for sea level rise will also be greater than anticipated. All of those results arise from simple mathematics, and we do not even have to resort to any economic modelling to understand how greater uncertainty translates into greater risk. – Stefan Lewandowsky

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419 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Science is not about certainty

Posted on May 30, 2012 by | 701 comments

by Judith Curry

I seem to be saying two things that contradict each other. On the one hand, we trust scientific knowledge, on the other hand, we are always ready to modify in-depth part of our conceptual structure about the world. But there is no contradiction, because the idea of a contradiction comes from what I see as the deepest misunderstanding about science: the idea that science is about certainty.     — Carlo Rovelli

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701 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Uncertainty