Category Archives: Scientific method

The sociology of correlation and causation

Posted on June 2, 2014 by | 286 comments

by Judith Curry

Correlation doesn’t imply  causation.

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286 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Evidence of absence versus absence of evidence

Posted on April 1, 2014 by | 479 comments

By Judith Curry

Does global warming make extreme weather events worse?

 

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479 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Scientific method

Habits of a complex mind

Posted on March 2, 2014 by | 510 comments

by Judith Curry

How to go from reductionist thinking to action based complexity research. 

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510 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Magical theories

Posted on February 13, 2014 by | 531 comments

by Judith Curry

[W]e have a field of sort-of-science in which hypotheses are treated as facts because they’re too hard or expensive to test, and there are so many hypotheses that what journalists like to call “leading authorities” disagree with one another daily. – Gary Taubes

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531 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

What scientific ideas are ready for retirement?

Posted on February 2, 2014 by | 383 comments

by Judith Curry

So, what scientific idea do YOU think is ready for retirement?

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383 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Pretense of knowledge

Posted on December 25, 2013 by | 453 comments

by Judith Curry

I confess that I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much indetermined and unpredictable, to a pretence of exact knowledge that is likely to be false. – Friedrich von Hayek

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453 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

20 tips for interpreting scientific claims

Posted on November 20, 2013 by | 174 comments

by Judith Curry

This list will help non-scientists to interrogate advisers and to grasp the limitations of evidence  – William J. Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter and Mark A. Burgman.

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174 Comments

Posted in Policy, Scientific method

A subterranean war on science?

Posted on November 6, 2013 by | 498 comments

by Judith Curry

[T]here is a routine confusion between science as a process (the scientific method), and science as an institution. – Ben Pile

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498 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD)

Posted on November 5, 2013 by | 302 comments

by Judith Curry

Groupthink:   A pattern of thought charaterized by self-deception, forced manufacture of consent, and conformity to group values and ethics.

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302 Comments

Posted in IPCC, Scientific method

Trust, and don’t bother to verify

Posted on October 18, 2013 by | 317 comments

by Judith Curry

There is no cost to getting things wrong. The cost is not getting them published. – Brian Nosek, as quoted by the Economist.

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317 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Confidence levels inside and outside an argument

Posted on October 6, 2013 by | 363 comments

by Judith Curry

[G]iving a very high level of confidence requires a check that you’re not confusing the probability inside one argument with the probability of the question as a whole. – NotWrong

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363 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

IPCC diagnosis – permanent paradigm paralysis

Posted on September 28, 2013 by | 658 comments

by Judith Curry

Diagnosis: paradigm paralysis, caused by motivated reasoning, oversimplification, and consensus seeking; worsened and made permanent by a vicious positive feedback effect at the climate science-policy interface.

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658 Comments

Posted in IPCC, Policy, Scientific method

What is Scientific Mediation?

Posted on September 4, 2013 by | 449 comments

by Judith Curry

Making clear what the real scientific dispute is about.

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449 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Scientists and motivated reasoning

Posted on August 20, 2013 by | 758 comments

by Judith Curry

Motivated reasoning affects scientists as it does other groups in society, although it is often pretended that scientists somehow escape this predicament.

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758 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Scientific method

So what is the best available scientific evidence, anyways?

Posted on August 14, 2013 by | 465 comments

by Judith Curry

Is “best available evidence” a new, improved “reframing” of the so-called “consensus” (that is not really holding up too well, these days)? Is it simply a way of sweeping aside the validity of any acknowledgement/discussion of the uncertainties? Or is it something completely different?! – Hilary Ostrov

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465 Comments

Posted in Communication, Scientific method

Pasteur’s quadrant

Posted on May 15, 2013 by | 134 comments

by Judith Curry

The savage budgetary pressures we will have at least into the 21st Century are part of the reason why we must attempt to develop a fresh contract between science and government. – Donald Stokes

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134 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Is fat good?

Posted on January 4, 2013 by | 325 comments

by Judith Curry

Epidemiologists struggle to explain a study that challenges a core belief:  Fat will kill you. – William Saletan

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325 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Scientific method

Can we avoid fooling ourselves?

Posted on December 28, 2012 by | 692 comments

by Judith Curry

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. – Richard Feynman

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692 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Scientific method

Climate change: no consensus on consensus

Posted on October 28, 2012 by | 1,324 comments

by Judith Curry

The manufactured consensus of the IPCC has had the unintended consequences of distorting the science, elevating the voices of scientists that dispute the consensus, and motivating actions by the consensus scientists and their supporters that have diminished the public’s trust in the IPCC.

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1,324 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Scientific method, Sociology of science

What exactly is critical thinking?

Posted on October 11, 2012 by | 422 comments

by Judith Curry

Everyone applauds the idea of critical thinking, and liberal arts colleges often make their ability to teach critical thinking a key selling point. But no one seems to define what they mean by that term. – Paul Gary Wyckoff

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422 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

On the rapid disintegration of projections

Posted on August 22, 2012 by | 275 comments

by Judith Curry

How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? 

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275 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Philosophical reflections on climate model projections

Posted on August 12, 2012 by | 910 comments

by Judith Curry

Should probabilistic qualities be assigned to climate model projections?

Are the approaches used by the IPCC for assessing climate model projection quality – confidence building, subjective Bayesian, and likelihood –  appropriate for climate models?

What are some other approaches that could be used?

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910 Comments

Posted in climate models, Scientific method

Special issue on postnormal climate science

Posted on July 24, 2012 by | 753 comments

by Judith Curry

Nature and Culture has a special issue on postnormal climate science.

[T]he concept of post-normal science helps to open up scientific discourse, to identify complex cultural and political situations, and to improve and extend the range of practices of an applied science. – Kraus, Schafer, and von Storch.

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753 Comments

Posted in Policy, Scientific method, Sociology of science

No consensus on consensus: Part II

Posted on July 13, 2012 by | 1,045 comments

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write a paper on the topic of consensus in climate change.

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1,045 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Policy, Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

5 logical fallacies that make you more wrong than you think

Posted on July 9, 2012 by | 496 comments

by Judith Curry

The Internet has introduced a golden age of ill-informed arguments.  But with all those different perspectives on important issues flying around, you’d think we’d be getting smarter and more informed. Unfortunately, the very wiring of our brains ensures that all these lively debates only make us dumber and more narrow-minded. – Kathy Benjamin, CRACKED

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496 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science