by Judith Curry
The Internet has introduced a golden age of ill-informed arguments. But with all those different perspectives on important issues flying around, you’d think we’d be getting smarter and more informed. Unfortunately, the very wiring of our brains ensures that all these lively debates only make us dumber and more narrow-minded. – Kathy Benjamin, CRACKED
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
False positives and exaggerated results in peer-reviewed scientific studies have reached epidemic proportions in recent years. – John Ioannidis
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
This past week, legislation was introduced in the U.S. Congress to cut NSF funding of political “science” . This amendment . . . brings to light an important debate on the more fundamental nature and scope of science itself.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
I seem to be saying two things that contradict each other. On the one hand, we trust scientific knowledge, on the other hand, we are always ready to modify in-depth part of our conceptual structure about the world. But there is no contradiction, because the idea of a contradiction comes from what I see as the deepest misunderstanding about science: the idea that science is about certainty. — Carlo Rovelli
Posted in Scientific method, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
Alarming cracks are starting to penetrate deep into the scientific edifice. They threaten the status of science and its value to society. And they cannot be blamed on the usual suspects — inadequate funding, misconduct, political interference, an illiterate public. Their cause is bias, and the threat they pose goes to the heart of research.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
Ignorance is the true engine of science, according to a new book by Stuart Firestein, Chair of the Department of Biology at Columbia University.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Climate science is sometimes characterized by skeptics as pseudoscience. Here are the arguments for why climate science is not pseudoscience.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Suppose it turns out that CO2 has essentially nothing to do with the earth’s climate. How will the history of this colossal mistake be written?
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
The Dublin based Livewire Publications has produced a new collection of essays titled Science & Capital – Radical Essays on Science & Technology, with the intention to;
“bring together some of the more radical essays on science and technology written over the years – so as to highlight some of the dangers inherent in the blind trust we are often encouraged to place in science and scientific experts”.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Update: see new cartoon by Josh at the bottom of the post
the massive amounts of data necessary to deal with complex phenomena exceed any single brain’s ability to grasp, yet networked science rolls on.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Question of the week:
Has the rate of warming continued unabated, or has there been a pause in the warming?
Posted in Data and observations, Scientific method
by Judith Curry
The dueling climate null hypothesis papers by myself and Kevin Trenberth are now online.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
although very few researchers will go as far as to make up their own data, many will “torture the data until they confess”, and forget to mention that the results were obtained by torture….
by Judith Curry
There is an interesting new article at boingboing entitled “Lowercase theories, uppercase Theories, and the myth of global cooling.” (h/t Keith Kloor).
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
The consensus on anthropogenic climate change provided by the IPCC is the source of much controversy. Central to the controversy is the meaning and implications of “consensus,” in both scientific and sociological contexts.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
On the politics of climate expertise thread, we discussed Kevin Trenberth’s statement:
Given that global warming is “unequivocal”, to quote the 2007 IPCC report, the null hypothesis should now be reversed, thereby placing the burden of proof on showing that there is no human influence.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Inside Higher Education (UK) has a lengthy article by Darrel Ince entitled “Systems failure”, with the subtitle “A scandal involving clinical trials based on research that was riddled with errors shows that journals, institutions and individuals must raise their standards.” An interview with Ince can be found here. There is discussion of this on two threads at Bishop Hill (here and here). The article and interview are very thought provoking, with relevance to the context of the climate debate.
Posted in Ethics, Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
There is an interesting new paper in press in Behavioral and Brain Science that is generating substantial discussion in the blogosphere, entitled “Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory.” Perhaps this article can provide us with some insights on the climate debate.
Posted in Communication, Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Since people are clamoring for a new thread, lets talk about this article in the the Australian Quadrant entitled “Science without method,” subtitled “Global warming research: whatever happened to the scientific method?” To review previous Climate Etc. posts on the Scientific Method, click here.
Posted in Greenhouse effect, Scientific method
by Judith Curry
I am trying to germinate an idea on how to move forward on the climate debate. Bear with me through this argument, and let me know what you think.
by Judith Curry
I stumbled across this essay by Michael Nielsen entitled “Science Beyond Individual Understanding,” which I think is very relevant to the climate problem.
by Judith Curry
I spotted this presentation by Arthur Dempster, Harvard statistician, in the Series on Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modeling hosted by the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences.
Dempster is widely known as the co-originator of Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (see the Wikipedia for an overview). Elements of evidence theory have been discussed on several previous threads (see Italian Flag, reasoning about floods).
Posted in Prediction, Scientific method, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
Continuing the themes of conflict prevention and best practices developed in Part III, I would like to discuss some pages from Edward Tufte’s book Beautiful Evidence, which was introduced here by Steve Mosher (seconded by MrPete). Of particular relevance is a chapter entitled “Corrupt Techniques in Evidence Presentations: Effects Without Cause, Cherry Picking, Punning, Chartjunk.”
Posted in Communication, Ethics, Scientific method
by Judith Curry
The significance of the debate over the hockey stick and “hide the decline” is the following:
Posted in Data and observations, Ethics, Scientific method
