by Greg Goodman
Inappropriate use of linear regression can produce spurious and significantly low estimations of the true slope of a linear relationship if both variables have significant measurement error or other perturbing factors. This is precisely the case when attempting to regress modelled or observed radiative flux against surface temperatures in order to estimate sensitivity of the climate system. Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Greg Goodman
Several of the major datasets that claim to represent “global average surface temperature” are directly or effectively averaging land air temperatures with sea surface temperatures.
by Nic Lewis
In a recent article here, which summarised a longer piece at ClimateAudit, I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations of changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are biased low.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Nicholas Lewis
Different agents may have effects on global temperature (GMST) different to those which would be expected simply by reference to the radiative forcing they exert. This difference is encapsulated in the term “forcing efficacy”.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Nic Lewis
The mean carbon cycle behaviour of CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs may be quite unrealistic.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
The scientific debate is now over; the moment of closure has arrived. – Shaun Lovejoy
Posted in Attribution, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
A burning question for the Paris negotiations: Are the INDCs sufficient to prevent 2 degrees of warming?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
It’s nice to see that our ‘discredited’ theory doesn’t seem to go away. – Richard Lindzen
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Rud Istvan
In 2001, MIT’s Professor Richard Lindzen and colleagues published a controversial paper titled “Does the Earth have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?” [1] If there were a tropical adaptive infrared iris, then Earth’s sensitivity to GHGs would be much less than the IPCC had supposed.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Bjorn Stevens has published two interesting and important papers in the last few weeks, which have placed him squarely in the cross-fire of both the scientific and public debates on climate change.
Posted in Communication, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Presentations are now available from the WCRP Workshop on Earth’s Climate Sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Nic Lewis
A new paper on aerosol radiative forcing has important implications for estimates of climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
An important new paper finds that the albedo of Earth is highly regulated, mostly by clouds, with some surprising consequences.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Rud Istvan
UPDATE: Response from Christopher Monckton
The Monckton, Soon, Legates, and Briggs paper “Why models run hot, results from an irreducibly simple climate model” appeared in the January 2015 Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Hereinafter MSLB.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Greg Goodman
Satellite data for the period surrounding the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 provide a means of estimating the scale of the volcanic forcing in the tropics. A simple relaxation model is used to examine how temporal evolution of the climate response will differ from the that of the radiative forcing.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
I’ve just returned from China, the first thing I did in the U.S. airport on my layover back to Atlanta was to check twitter.
Posted in Policy, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
I was invited to submit an op-ed regarding the recent Lewis/Curry paper on climate sensitivity. Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Robert Ellison
Climate sensitivity is large in the vicinity of tipping points but moderate otherwise.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Donald Rapp
This paper describes a model that uses the basics of heat transfer to demonstrate than an increase in downwelling infrared radiation associated with increased CO2 reduces heat loss from the mixed layer of the ocean, causing the ocean to warm.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Nic Lewis
Michael Mann has had a paper on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) accepted by Geophysical Research Letters. The paper seeks to overturn the current understanding of the AMO. But on my reading of the paper Mann’s case is built on results that do not support his contentions.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Isaac Held’s new article in Science raises some interesting questions.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
The Lewis and Crok paper is stimulating much discussion; unfortunately little of it is technical. Lets devote a thread to technical discussion on the issues the raise.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Nic Lewis and Marcel Crok have published a new report on climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
