Author Archives: curryja

Meta-uncertainty in the determination of climate sensitivity

Posted on April 17, 2013 | 648 comments

by Judith Curry

Two heavyweight climate scientists have published very different ideas about how much the Earth is going to warm in the coming decades. – Washington Weather Gang

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648 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Predictions of climate change impacts on fisheries can be a mirage

Posted on April 14, 2013 | 116 comments

by Judith Curry

A novel method for causal inference has been motivated by .  .  .  sardines.

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116 Comments

Posted in Causation, Climate change impacts, Policy

Open thread weekend

Posted on April 13, 2013 | 1,175 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

1,175 Comments

Posted in Welcome

The Forest 2006 climate sensitivity study and misprocessing of data – an update

Posted on April 10, 2013 | 439 comments

by Nicholas Lewis

Some of you may recall my guest post at Climate Etc last June, here, questioning whether the results of the Forest et al., 2006, (F06) study on estimating climate sensitivity might have arisen from misprocessing of data.

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439 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Historic Variations in Arctic sea ice. Part II: 1920-1950

Posted on April 10, 2013 | 353 comments

by Tony Brown

Satellite observations that provide an hour by hour picture of every part of the Arctic make it easy to forget that large areas of it had not even been even explored 80 years ago – let alone its ice extent minutely observed.  This paper explores the controversy surrounding the period 1920-1950, which was a period of substantial warming in the Arctic.

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353 Comments

Posted in History, Polar regions

We’re not screwed (?)

Posted on April 2, 2013 | 1,247 comments

by Judith Curry

We’re screwed: 11,000 years’ worth of ­climate data prove it.  It’s among the most compelling bits of proof out there that human beings are behind global warming, and as such has become a target on Mann’s back for climate denialists looking to draw a bead on scientists. — The Atlantic, March 9th

We’re not screwed. The trouble is, as they quietly admitted over the weekend, their new and stunning claim is groundless. The real story is only just emerging, and it isn’t pretty. – Ross McKitrick

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1,247 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Ethics

UK MSM on climate sensitivity

Posted on March 31, 2013 | 358 comments

by Judith Curry

If climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, climate sensitivity would be on negative watch. But it would not yet be downgraded. – The Economist

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358 Comments

Posted in climate models, Communication, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

Posted on March 29, 2013 | 807 comments

by Judith Curry

Kevin Trenberth famously stated in the CRU emails:

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.

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807 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

American Physical Society

Posted on March 24, 2013 | 946 comments

by Judith Curry

The American Physical Society (APS) has a new Topical Group on the Physics of Climate (GPC).

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946 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Playing hockey – blowing the whistle

Posted on March 19, 2013 | 933 comments

by Rud Istvan

This instantly ‘famous’ 2013 Science hockey stick paper derived from Marcott’s 2011 Ph.D thesis at Oregon State University, available here. His thesis doesn’t show a hockey stick ‘blade’ projecting above its anomaly baseline NCDC 1961-1990. H/T to Jean S, posted at Climate Audit. Something changed after the thesis was published to produce the new ‘blade’ in Science. That something was significant, since the Science paper’s Supplementary Information discussion said it did not enable discriminating such a temperature variation (i.e. a ‘blade’) on such a short a time scale.

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933 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Obesity (?) of the U.S. scientific research enterprise

Posted on March 17, 2013 | 178 comments

by Judith Curry

The scientific enterprise is not immune from the perils of obesity.  – Mike Kelly

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178 Comments

Posted in Policy

Let’s play hockey – again

Posted on March 11, 2013 | 1,147 comments

by Rud Istvan

On March 8, 2013, mainstream media around the world carried headlines trumpeting a new study in Science, the gist typified by NBC News:

Warming fastest since dawn of civilization

Except that is not what the paper was about.

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1,147 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

New perspectives on climate sensitivity

Posted on March 10, 2013 | 495 comments

by Judith Curry

Here is a summary of some important new papers on the topics of climate sensitivity and attribution.

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495 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Time for some optimism about the climate crisis (?)

Posted on March 9, 2013 | 196 comments

by Judith Curry

First we discuss the interlinked problems of climate change, peak fossil fuels and the credit crunch and then grounds for some optimism, including means of adjusting energy and commodity markets to start to address these ills, and other measures to deal with non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. – Richard Douthwaite and David Knight

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196 Comments

Posted in Policy

Direct Statistical Simulation

Posted on March 6, 2013 | 430 comments

by Judith Curry

[A] technique called direct statistical simulation dramatically reduces the time and brute-force computing that current simulation techniques require. The process does a good job of modeling fluid jets, fast-moving flows that form naturally in oceans and in the atmosphere. The findings are a key step toward bringing powerful statistical models rooted in basic physics to bear on climate science.

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430 Comments

Posted in climate models

Hearing postponed

Posted on March 6, 2013 | 182 comments

by Judith Curry

Dr. Curry,

Due to the weather and the OPM announcement (below) that Federal Offices will be closed, today’s hearing on “Policy-Relevant Climate Issue in Context” will be postponed.  I’m sorry for the trouble.

FEDERAL OFFICES in the Washington, DC, area are CLOSED. Emergency and telework-ready employees required to work must follow their agency’s policies, including written telework agreements.

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182 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Forthcoming Congressional Hearing

Posted on March 4, 2013 | 403 comments

The U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Environment of the Committee on Science, Space & Technology is holding a Hearing this Wed on “Policy Relevant Climate Issues in Context.”  Witnesses:

  • Bjorn Lomborg
  • Judith Curry
  • William Chameides

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403 Comments

Posted in Communication, Policy

Spinning the climate model – observation comparison

Posted on February 22, 2013 | 1,225 comments

by Judith Curry

In the past 6 months or so, we have seen numerous different plots of the CMIP5 climate model simulations versus observations.

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1,225 Comments

Posted in climate models, Communication, Uncertainty

Adapting to climate change: Challenges and opportunities for U.S. business community

Posted on February 19, 2013 | 310 comments

by Judith Curry

The wide variation in temperature, rainfall and other measures predicted by the various climate models makes it difficult for both policymakers and the private sector to decide when and how much capital to invest in measures to adapt to possible changes in the climate.  – Margo Thorning

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310 Comments

Posted in Policy

Congressional testimony and normative science

Posted on February 16, 2013 | 859 comments

by Judith Curry

Last week, the U.S. Senate held a hearing entitled Senate Briefing on the Latest Climate Science.
.

859 Comments

Posted in Ethics

The horsemeat argument

Posted on February 13, 2013 | 819 comments

by Judith Curry

So, what does the UK scandal involving horsemeat in lasagna have to do with climate change?

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819 Comments

Posted in Communication, Ethics

IEA Facts and Fictions

Posted on February 11, 2013 | 363 comments

by Rud Istvan and Brandon Shollenberger

Comments on the previous Climate Etc post on Maggio and Cacciola’s paper, When will oil, natural gas, and coal peak? motivated an analysis of the World Energy Outlook produced annually by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

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363 Comments

Posted in Energy

Sensitivity about sensitivity

Posted on February 4, 2013 | 1,165 comments

by Judith Curry

. . . the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. – James Annan

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1,165 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Another Hockey Stick

Posted on February 1, 2013 | 507 comments

by Rud Istvan

Fossil fuel availability affects how much CO2 will be emitted, which might or might not affect climate much. Hubbert’s 1956 insight suggests total peak oil is near (around 2020), and that gas and coal will peak by midcentury.

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507 Comments

Posted in Energy

Condensation-driven winds: An update

Posted on January 31, 2013 | 1,404 comments

by Anastassia Makarieva, Victor Gorshkov, Douglas Sheil, Antonio Nobre, Larry Li

It’s official: our controversial paper has been published. After a burst of intense attention (some of you may remember discussions at Climate Etc., the Air Vent and the Blackboard), followed by nearly two years of waiting, our paper describing a new mechanism driving atmospheric motion has been published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

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1,404 Comments

Posted in climate models