Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

by Judith Curry

Kevin Trenberth famously stated in the CRU emails:

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.

For additional background, refer to this previous Climate Etc. post Where’s the missing heat?

In a new paper, Trenberth and collaborators argue that the ‘missing’ heat is sequestered in the ocean, below 700 m.

Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content

Magdalena Balmaseda, Kevin Trenberth, Erland Kallen

Abstract. The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean’s role in the Earth’s energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observational-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.

Accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, [link] to abstract.

The main figure under discussion is this one:

BTK13Fig1

Figure 1: Ocean Heat Content from 0 to 300 meters (grey), 700 m (blue), and total depth (violet) from ORAS4, as represented by its 5 ensemble members. The time series show monthly anomalies smoothed with a 12-month running mean, with respect to the 1958–1965 base period. Hatching extends over the range of the ensemble members and hence the spread gives a measure of the uncertainty as represented by ORAS4 (which does not cover all sources of uncertainty). The vertical colored bars indicate a two year interval following the volcanic eruptions with a 6 month lead (owing to the 12-month running mean), and the 1997–98 El Niño event again with 6 months on either side. On lower right, the linear slope for a set of global heating rates (W/m2) is given.

SkepticalScience and WUWT (Bob Tisdale) have extensive posts on this paper.

So . . .  has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?  To evaluate this, we need to dig into the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis.  For background on reanalyses, see this previous Climate Etc. post  reanalyses.org.    Here is the paper describing the reanalyses.

Evaluation of the ECMWF Ocean Reanalysis ORAS4

Magdalena Balmaseda, Kristian Mogensen, Anthony Weaver

Abstract.  A new operational ocean reanalysis (ORAS4) has been implemented at ECMWF. It spans the period 1958 to present. This paper describes its main components and evaluates its quality. The adequacy of ORAS4 for the initialization of seasonal forecasts is discussed, along with the robustness of some prominent climate signals.

ORAS4 has been evaluated using different metrics, including comparison with observed ocean currents, RAPID-derived transports, sea level gauges, and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. Compared to a control ocean model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, interannual variability, and seasonal forecast skill. Some problems have been identified, such as the underestimation of meridional overturning at 26◦N, the magnitude of which is shown to be sensitive to the treatment of the coastal observations.

ORAS4 shows a clear and robust shallowing trend of the Pacific Equatorial thermocline. It also shows a clear and robust nonlinear trend in the 0-700m ocean heat content, consistent with other observational estimates. Some aspects of these climate signals are sensitive to the choice of SST product and the specification of the observation-error variances. The global sea level trend is consistent with the altimeter estimate, but the partition into volume and mass variations is more debatable, as inferred by discrepancies in the trend between ORAS4- and GRACE-derived bottom pressure.

Submitted to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. [link] to full text.

JC comments:  Ocean analysis (ocean models that assimilate observations ) is used to initialize ocean models are critical for making weather forecasts at timescales beyond 10 days using coupled atmosphere/ocean models.  Ocean RE-analysis uses the same version of an ocean model to assimilate cleaned up historical ocean observations into a homogeneous analysis of historical ocean states.   The second paper that describes the reanalysis process.  It is a complex and sophisticated undertaking.

To what extend should we have confidence in the reanalysis results?  Based upon verification statistics, there is clearly some advantages to the reanalysis relative to the raw observations.  However the big issue is whether we can infer reliable global trends from the reanalysis, owing to changes in the observing system (not just for the ocean, but for the surface fluxes derived from atmospheric reanalyses), and uncertainties in the overall methodology.   The surprising finding is the apparent sequestration of heat in the global ocean starting circa 2000, which has been accompanied by a flattening of the trend of upper ocean temperatures since 2003.  Is this real, or an artifact of the reanalysis process?  We don’t know, there is a debate underway in the oceanographic and climate communities on this topic.

Lets assume for the moment that the sequestration of heat in the deep ocean since 2000 is robust.  What might be the cause of this, and what is the physical mechanism?  Well, the only conceivable mechanism is associated with ocean circulations, driven internally by thermohaline processes or by the wind driven circulation.  The reanalyses can be used in principle to diagnose what is going here in terms of which ocean basin/region is leading this effect, seasonality, etc.   So what happened circa 2000?  Well, there was climate shift associated with a massive reorganization of circulation patterns in the Pacific.  Is this of relevance? Who knows, no one has done the analysis on this to my knowledge.

So has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?  His recent paper is inconclusive on this.  The important point to me is that the new ocean reanalysis products support much more comprehensive diagnostics of heat transfer and storage in the ocean, including dynamical mechanisms in the context of overall climate dynamics.  Focusing on a global trend from the reanalysis data isn’t how to extract the useful content from these data, IMO.

807 responses to “Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

  1. This is a technical thread and will be monitored for substantive comment.
    ===================

    • What are the physics of Trenberth’s lost heat finding it’s way down to 700m without leaving a trace on the way down?

      Why didn’t Trenberth lost calories/joules stop at say 150m?

      • It is very easy when you consider that the ocean is understood to have overturning circulations, upwelling zones, surface currents, and all that.

      • There is no missing heat. It’s because Trenberth’s ‘back radiation’ contradicts Maxwell’s Equations. A pyrgeometer measure the net radiative field over all wavelengths. An FTIR measures the Planck Irradiation Function. These elements of electromagnetic energy transfer are standard physics. Climate Alchemy pretends to invent new physics, a perpetual motion machine.

        That’s why the climate models exaggerate surface IR absorbed by GHGs by a factor of ~6.85. Then in hind casting they offset the extra warming by claiming 2x low level cloud optical depth.

        There is little net ~15 µm surface IR so little CO2-AGW.or positive feedback, an artefact of the models exaggerating sunlit ocean temperature and evaporation is proportional to its exponent at constant RH.

        Start again folks with proper physics.

      • Jim D
        If that were the explanation, the spatially well deployed Argos system with its sensors are various depths would have picked up this purported down welling.

        I think there is no evidence of missing heat and Trenberth is desperately chasing the ghosts of his observation “There is an absence of warming.and it’s a travesty we can’t explain it.”

        Cognitive dissonance is a very powerful state of mind.

      • Nancy Green

        the heat had to go somewhere and since dr T couldn’t find it anywhere else, it has to be in the deep oceans. qed.

  2. I just looked at Tisdale’s post on this and it appears to me that the temperature changes associated with these seemingly huge energy numbers are very small, on the order of 0.1C. Below 2000 meters it appears things are measured in 0.01C. Judging accelerations in such data seems to me rather suspect. Are we sure the signal is larger than the noise?

    • This is kind of like when climate scientists say the modern period is .2 degrees warmer than the Medieval warm period. How do they know the temp of the MWP to that degree of precision.

  3. Look at seal levels from Colorado

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/2013rel2-global-mean-sea-level-time-series-seasonal-signals-removed

    Now the notch at 2010-2011 is real, it is present in the Gulf of Mexico for instance. However, the lineshape of of our time travelers is quite different from satellite measurements of ocean height.

    This is a case study in wishful thinking and wish fulfillment. People wanted to find hidden heat and worked the numbers until they did. This is exactly the type of work which shows that there is no science in climate science.

  4. Intuitively it’s very difficult for me to consider it likely that the warming of the Earth system has reached the point where a major part of additional heat goes to ocean below 700 m based on the overall picture that
    – sun heats the upper ocean,
    – more CO2 reduces the heat loss from the surface to the atmosphere and trough that to space, and
    – that leads to more heat finding its way to depths greater than 700 m.
    The upper ocean has warmed too little to make that plausible in my view.

    That doesn’t, however, mean that it were as difficult to accept the results of that reanalysis as credible as long as the mechanisms are different. The most likely being that the effect is due to natural variability in the ocean heat fluxes. If this is the correct explanation we wold have seen significant cooling of the uppermost ocean without the effect of additional CO2.

    A third possibility is that the ocean currents lead to bypassing the upper ocean and link the deeper layers directly to the surface. That would allow for warming of the deep sea as a consequence of the higher surface temperatures.

    All this is based only on intuition having as mental background a compartment model of heat content.

    • Pekka, the reason the bottom of the oceans is colder than the top is due to the sinking and horizontal transport of cold, dense, brines from the polar regions.
      We have been told time and again that there has been an increase in the conversion of ice to cold water at the poles. Therefore, would we not expect shrinking ice to cause cooler ocean bottoms?

      • The net energy flux is the difference in heat carried down by downwelling and up by the upwelling part of the circulation. Many things affect that balance. The dynamics of oceans has also many other complications making it impossible to draw conclusions as simply as you wrote.

      • Pekka I had assumed that adding more cold water into the oceans, increasing the total mass of water, would lower the average temperature. The paper claims to measure TOTAL temperature.
        If I have a bath of water at any temperature greater than four degrees and add any sized volume of water which is less than four degrees the AVERAGE temperature will drop.
        Now it could be true that there has been no increase in melt water going into the oceans. Magic atmospheric IR could bypass the first 300 m of the ocean surface and only heat the lower layers, the person who has based his last 15 years on finding missing heat in the oceans could have found the ‘missing’ heat and pixies could live at the bottom of my garden.

      • DocMartyn,

        Adding heat to the ocean is not likely to lower the average temperature. That’s so also when part of that extra heat is used to melt ice.

      • Doc,
        Cold fresh water is more buoyant than warmer brine.

        But the total ice melt from Greenland etc has only been enough to raise sea levels by maybe a few mm so far. Even if that few mm of cold water went straight to the deep ocean, it wouldn’t measurably affect the temperature.

      • Nick many people have made the argument that the rise in sea levels is due to melting ice. Time and time again we have been warned that global warming is raising the sea-level. Now you are saying that the total sea level to a couple of mm?

        Fan has been posting Hansens terror of a flooded New York by Christmas. However, you now all say that the amount of melt water is trivial in terms of cooling the oceans, even though it is polar waters that have kept the bottom of the oceans cool throughout the past few million years.

        Is this one of those bait and switch things again Nick? You say one thing one month in support of an argument and the opposite later?

        Either less than 300 meters of the oceans, the majority of the oceans mass, is cooled by polar waters allowing it to have a >10 degrees gradient with respect to the top meter or something else is happening.

        If the poles are melting at an unprecedented rate, then the oceans MUST be cooled at an unprecedented rate.

      • Doc,
        “You say one thing one month in support of an argument and the opposite later?”
        No. I said
        “But the total ice melt from Greenland etc has only been enough to raise sea levels by maybe a few mm so far. “

        And that isn’t controversial. The AR4 says that sea level rose from 1993 to 2003 at 3 mm/yr, about half due to melting ice.

        But it’s just a simple sanity check. Spread that melt over the ocean – OK maybe 20-30mm, say. Sink it to depth, where it is maybe 3°C colder. Mix with say 1 km seawater – so its say 30 ppm, 3°C, about 0.0001 °C cooling. That’s if it all gets there, no warming along the way.

      • David Springer

        It’s highly misleading to say the bottom of the ocean is cool. The vast majority of the ocean, 90% of its volume, is a bone chilling 3C. Only the topmost 10% is any warmer than that. The average temperature of the ocean, top to bottom, is 4C.

        That our modestly warm world is dependent on a shallow layer of warm water floating on a vast basin of ice water should be the most alarming thing about our climate. Anything that accelerates the mix rate between the shallow warm layer and the frigid bulk of the ocean could be catastrophic and quickly so. Atypical cold is a lot more damaging to both civilization and the biosphere than is atypical warm.

      • In reading David Springer,s comment that an accelerated mixing of warm surface water with colder lower regions would be catastrophic, I had a flash thought of the asteroid striking the Gulf of Mexico, 65 million years ago. When it is said that this asteroid decimated dinosaurs and most other life forms, what if part of that devastation was due to the rapid mixing of the warm Gulf of Mexico with the Atlantic Ocean? Thus adding to the global winter effect of the debris thrown on high into the atmosphere

    • Pekka, The mixing at the Antarctic convergence zone can create quite a variety of impacts on ocean heat content.

      http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jrt9502.pdf

      Colder average mixing can actually raise the thermohaline while the deeper oceans are cooling. There can be some mighty long times scales that need to be considered.

    • Pekka,

      The most likely being that the effect is due to natural variability in the ocean heat fluxes. If this is the correct explanation we wold have seen significant cooling of the uppermost ocean without the effect of additional CO2.

      This could be tested in a ‘climate science’ experiment (‘climate science’ experiments are the best an most reliable types of experiments).

      The experiment I suggest is to put a bubble over Europe so no CO2 can enter or exit the bubble. Then stop all man made CO2 emissions inside the bubble (and no importing or exports of products containing embodied CO2 emissions).

      That would test your hypothesis and also allow the rest of the world to live in peace and harmony and enjoy an ever improving standard of living without being held back by the European socialists and communists.

      We could also put a border control wall around Europe so only rational people are allowed out.

      Would that be a good idea? Would it kill meany birds with one stone (i.e. solve many world problems with one ‘climate science’ experiment)?

      • JimD, and the only “region” that indicates a “sensitivity” of 3 C is global land mainly in the northern hemisphere. That is about 20 percent of the surface of the Earth. You can’t base “global sensitivity” on a fraction of the globe. Since most of the warming is “regional” you also cannot dismissing “regional” warming and cooling in the past.

        Climate science has developed into the art of cherry picking

      • OK, the world’s crops tend to grow in those areas, and you have no concern about continental areas drying out, I suppose. I am concerned about these things.

      • JimD, “OK, the world’s crops tend to grow in those areas, and you have no concern about continental areas drying out, I suppose. I am concerned about these things.”

        Actually, I am quite concerned about that. Water shed preservation and restoration should be our number one priority closely followed by soil conservation. Much more bang for the buck.

      • With warming, growing zones will extend poleward, and you have no idea whether droughts will worsen or where.
        =============================

      • “That is about 20 percent of the surface of the Earth. “

        That’s a misleading half-truth . Land makes up 29% of the surface and the fact that you cherry-pick the northern hemisphere shows you to be a hypocrite.

        “Climate science has developed into the art of cherry picking”

        Cappy Dick, you should just give it up.

      • Read CD again. Northern Hemisphere land is about 20% of the Earth’s surface. Is that your problem?
        ===================

      • kim, I am more concerned with the transient climate that comes first as the land warms much faster than the ocean leading to lower humidity all round.

      • Webby, that would be a half comprehension on your part. As I said, the land mass area that is actually warming is about 20% of the surface of the Earth. The Antarctic and large swaths of the tropics are not warming at that rate. In fact, with about 2000 meters of ice covering it, a significant portion of the land surface isn’t land surface at all.

        Now if you would like to make a more accurate estimate of my “about, knock yourself out.

      • Jim D wrote: “…the land warms much faster than the ocean leading to lower humidity all round”
        —————————————————————–
        How exactly does that work?
        Bearing in mind that, for example, one summer to the next gains, on average, less than 0.01C, which is very easily buried by myriad other factors – such as soil humidity

      • phatboy, it works kind of the way summer does when the humidity tends to be lower because the land is warmer than the ocean.

      • Jim D, Just because the land is warmer than the ocean doesn’t decrease the humidity.
        I think you’re confusing this with the fact that colder oceans evaporate less – but, in this case, the ocean itself isn’t colder than it would have been

      • “kim | March 31, 2013 at 2:10 pm |

        Read CD again. Northern Hemisphere land is about 20% of the Earth’s surface. Is that your problem?
        ===================”

        Do YOU have a reading problem? I mentioned that Cappy Dick was cherry-picking the Northern Hemisphere to come up with a smaller number. You fake skeptics are very devious.

        Let’s get back to and celebrate how well climate scientists can model the evolution of the earth’s temperature.

        If ~30% is land and ~70% is water, then a globally averaged temperature anomaly can be set up as follows:

        T_avg = 0.7*T_aqua + 0.3*T_land

        The heat entering the ocean will suppress T_aqua and thus suppress the average from what the T_land is showing. That which does not enter the ocean contributes to excess atmospheric heat.

        So if say that 1/2 of the excess heat is being siphoned to the bulk ocean volume, then the actual ocean surface temperature would be 1/2 it would be on land.

        So the T_avg will be
        T_avg = 0.7*(1/2*T_land) + 0.3*T_land = 0.65*T_land

        Easy enough to observe the differences between land-based averages such as BEST, and ocean&land averages such as GIStemp. BEST has gone up by about 1.2C while the global average about 0.8C.

        http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1900/mean:60/compress:12/plot/best/from:1900/mean:60/compress:12

        This ratio looks abut 0.65 just as one would predict from the ratio of land and ocean due to the ocean’s current heat uptake. According to the GHG models, starting with Hansen 1981, this will continue from now on. So whatever the global average is, the global land average will have an anomalous temperature that is about 50% higher.

        So whenever you see a number like +3C mentioned for a global average increase for years from now, the land anomaly could likely be 4.5C.
        We will have to deal with that outcome, but the subjective sense of whether that is good or bad has nothing to do with climate predictions as they stand.

      • Heh, Web, I’ll take the author’s interpretation of what he wrote over yours.
        =================

      • phatboy, the relative humidity determines the clouds and rain, and the relative humidity over land depends on the vapor present (which depends on the ocean temperature) and the temperature (of the land), so for a given vapor amount, hotter land means lower humidity, less clouds, less rain, more drying sunshine, higher temperatures over dry land, a positive feedback towards more droughty conditions.

      • Jim D, so what you’re saying is that more evaporation from the oceans leads to less rainfall????

      • “kim | March 31, 2013 at 3:13 pm |

        Heh, Web, I’ll take the author’s interpretation of what he wrote over yours.
        =================”

        I thought you were responding to me. Well, it’s nice to see that you didn’t challenge my point that Captain is a cherry-picking hypocrite.

      • phatboy, yes if the land is warming faster, less rainfall over land. The relative humidity is what matters for rainfall and clouds. The oceans would have more rain if they are warmer, as we see in the tropics.

      • Gad, web, you make less sense than I do. Kudos.
        =============

      • Webster, “Cherry picking hypocrite.”
        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/ZonAnn.Ts.txt

        That is GISS land only regional. Between 25N and 90N there is 48% of the total land surface area. Excluding the Arctic circle, the highest trends are 44N to 64N and 24N to 44N. The trends for the tropics and southern extent land regions are nearly identical while the northern extent trend shows the CO2 swoosh!.

        Since the majority of the land use changes are in the NH extratropics, Occam would generally allow an alternate hypothesis.

      • Jim D, of course you’re right – which is why we have so much more rainfall over tropical rainforest than over temperate scrubland.

      • phatboy, the concept of summer is lost in the tropics, isn’t it? The temperature doesn’t stray far from the ocean temperature there.

      • You’re sure about that, are you?

      • And what about tropical deserts?

      • Jim,

        That’s only one of the effects. Warmer land means also more uplift over land areas and more air from the seas at low altitudes. That adds to the rain. This is just one more example of what changes. Pick any single effect – or two – and you are likely to end up in wrong conclusions.

      • phatboy, the deserts I know about are subtropical.

      • Pekka, you are mentioning effects that are more coastal or related to monsoons. However, interior continents like Russia and the US central plains where a lot of crops are grown, and where there is susceptibility to droughts already, are the areas we need to be concerned about.

      • Jim D, subtropical or not, they’re still just as hot.
        Besides which, I, amongst many, would argue that the increase in temperatures you’re going on about are more to down to an increase in minimum winter night-time temperatures than maximum summer daytime temperatures.

      • phatboy, this started with the idea that land areas may dry out. Some are already dry, but I was just pointing out how a positive feedback can lead to droughts, and there are credible reasons this could happen based on relative humidity. Perhaps it is no accident that the Dust Bowl occurred during a previous rapid-warming phase, while Europe had some bad winters too, coincidentally.

      • Or maybe the dust bowl conditions, or the factors which caused it, also caused the increase in measured temperatures

      • phatboy, it was a global temperature increase. Not sure the dust bowl caused that. It would be interesting to know if other droughts occurred at the same time.

      • @ WHT

        Summary – “It’s NOT CO2!!! Na-na-na.”

        Forever and ever, amen.

      • There’s an awful lot of maybes, the only certainty being that you’re certain of what you’re certain of.

      • Jim,

        What I had also in mind is that your description fits well with regions of uplift, while the regions of subsiding flows are most suspect of being arid.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        There is substantial variability at decadal scales and much longer globally in response primarily to patterns of sea surface temperature .

        http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/globalwarming/ar4-fig-3-14.gif

        The patterns – negative PDO and positive AMO – are suggesting the most severe potential for drought conditions in the US for a decade or more hence. ‘The most severe droughts occur when the PDO is in a negative phase, and the AMO is in a positive phase.’ McCabe (2004).

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/USdrought_zps2629bb8c.jpg.html?sort=3&o=8#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/USdrought_zps2629bb8c.jpg.html?sort=3&o=8&_suid=136477440927307837581562843924

    • …the effect is due to natural variability in the ocean heat fluxes. If this is the correct explanation…

      How does “natural variability” qualify as an explanation at all?

      • David Wojick

        Most if not all climate variables oscillate naturally for reasons that are unknown. If chaotic the reasons may well be unknowable. If an observed change is due to one of these oscillations then that is the explanation. For example today’s colder temperature is due to a surge of arctic air. The surge is a natural variability explains the temperature change.

      • David Wojick | March 30, 2013 at 12:37 pm |

        Close. Let’s see if we can simplify this a bit, as plain language ought be the goal of all writing:

        Most if not all climate variables oscillate naturally for reasons that are unknown.

        Past climates varied based on state and natural inputs; unnatural human inputs change climates too, now.

        If chaotic the reasons may well be unknowable.

        Even if all causes are known, Chaos can make it hard to link them to effects.

        If an observed change is due to one of these oscillations then that is the explanation.

        It is becoming increasingly hard to separate known human inputs from natural inputs because the prior state was partly due to human causes.

        For example today’s colder temperature is due to a surge of arctic air. The surge is a natural variability explains the temperature change.

        If you view all dominant inputs as natural, or the climate is very like past natural states, then natural variability explains part of the observation.

      • David Wojick

        Bart I do not necessarily agree. Natural variability is not usually about inputs. It is about oscillations.

      • David Wojick | March 30, 2013 at 1:34 pm |

        Volcanoes, though we likely agree they are natural, are not oscillations, except in a grand Quantum Mechanical sense.

        If we mean all things are oscillations, it’s meaningfully to say some things specifically are oscillations for no other reason.

      • David Wojick

        The occurence of volcanos, more or fewer, weaker or stronger, here or there, does oscillate due to the underlying tectonics plus gravitational forces etc. There is a lot of research on this. Volcanos are not random events. The crust is a thin film in constant motion and in pieces, floating on a molten ball. Note that this also affects sea level, as well as ocean circulation and heat content. Nature is nowhere constant.

      • Generalissimo Skippy

        But are they catastrophic – in the sense of Rene Thom?

      • If all things are oscillations, it’s meaningless to say some things specifically are oscillations for no other reason, in particular if by oscillation we simply mean tendency to revert toward some unknown mean or attractor from some extreme (which only hindsight can tell) at some unknown point.

        You’ve just replaced “God”, “Nature”, “mystery”, or “magic” with “oscillation”.

      • Music of the Spheres.
        ==============

      • David Wojick

        All things are not oscillations but we have learned that most if not all climate parameters oscillate naturally. This is very important because AGW was and to a great degree still is premised on the idea that climate is constant, at equilibrium, such that observed changes must be explained by external forgings. Very few of these natural oscillations are included in the climate models because very few are well understood. People still talk about equilibrium sensitivity as though that were a meaningful concept but it is not.

      • David Wojick

        Indeed Kim, or even the harmonics of the spheres.

      • All things are not oscillations but we have learned that most if not all climate parameters oscillate naturally. This is very important because AGW was and to a great degree still is premised on the idea that climate is constant, at equilibrium, such that observed changes must be explained by external forgings. Very few of these natural oscillations are included in the climate models because very few are well understood.

        Purer bafflegab was never uttered. If only we had an expert in simplifying overly complex verbiage around to take some shears to this waffle.

        An oscillation without a period or amplitude is just a time series, a simple curve that might look like anything.

        There is no ‘premise’ in AGW of a constant climate, and never was. You think Arrhenius was ignorant of the changing nature of the natural world?

        No, that’s just a straw man. The premise of AGW is of an external forcing on a climate system that alters its state in ways that nature would not otherwise have done by the same path.

        Observed changes can only be explained by external forcings not because there is some premise of changelessness, but because we know the path of changes without these forcings is not the same as the path with these forcings from pure mathematics of Chaos Theory. This mathematics applies to biological systems, reliably, and electronics, to neurons and computer networks and ants and hornets and fish and flows in rivers and streams and orbits of planets and to climate.

        Where we can observe models — analog or digital — we always see this effect in things that work the way climate works.

      • How cold would the Earth be, Bart, without man’s influence?
        =================

      • BartR, “Observed changes can only be explained by external forcings not because there is some premise of changelessness, but because we know the path of changes without these forcings is not the same as the path with these forcings from pure mathematics of Chaos Theory.”

        That is not true. if it were true, there would not be as many theories of the ice ages. One of the common fallacies is that CO2 forcing during some period several million years ago is a good guide to the impact it will have now. Since there are internal variables, like ocean mixing efficiency, you can’t assume there will be the same impact with changes to the internal system dynamics.

        “Ultimately, this study suggests that the growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is a result of the global cooling of Earth’s climate since 4 Myr rather than its initial cause.” http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1324186/
        You can confuse cause and effect.

        The models currently do not reproduce the known internal pseudo oscillations, which can be any number of combinations of normal sine wave cycles with varying time scales. ENSO is a common known oscillation that is a result of solar forcing and internal energy transfer delays. Since the hemisphere oceans are asymmetrical, both N-S and E-W you shouldn’t expect natural variability not to be a factor on various time scales.

        The PDO and AMO are both known but not replicated in models until recently. The GFDL is modeling longer term, 150 year internal oscillations.

        “The dominant forcing factor appears to be precessional insolation; Northern Hemisphere summer insolation correlates to at least the early to middle Holocene climate trend. Spectral analysis reveals centennial-scale cyclic climate changes with periods of 1220, 1070, 400, and 150 yr.” ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/nielsen2004/nielsen2004.txt

        Denying the complexity of a frigging planet scale thermodynamic problem is a tad insane.

      • Some people are less comfortable with turning up the thermostat by 4 C than kim apparently is.

      • Jim D, I’d take +4 C over -8 C any day, and so would you.

        Besides, there seems to be a thermostat keeping us within a 10 C range, and we’re closer to the top than the bottom.
        ================

      • JimD, 4 C where? That 4 C is based on increasing an average surface effective energy of 390 Wm-2 to 412 Wm-2. That is 22 Wm-2.

        Trenberth before this missing heat had 20 Wm-2 of missing heat he recently had to make a “minor adjustment” on. Greame Stephens et al. along with another Stephan’s et al. noted that Trenberth missed quite a bit of energy in his budget, underestimating latent and sensible cooling while attempting to “close” his budget. Classic garbage in garbage out. Since then, the general “consensus” is that the 4 C is an over estimate. 4 C is likely an unrealistic upper limit in fact.

        You though tend to throw out that 4 C like you have a strong position in carbon credit futures.

      • Jim D, same question for you as for Pekka and Bart R. Pick a number for sensitivity that frightens you, then calculate how much colder we’d be at present without man’s influence.

        Whaddya get?
        ======================

      • 4 C is based on the intermediate fossil fuel scenarios (700 ppm) with some mitigation, and the intermediate sensitivities (3 C per doubling). It may occur after 2100, but it will occur unless a significant proportion of the remaining fossil fuels are left in the ground.

      • kim, reading Marcott’s comment at Realclimate that Judith just pointed to, I think we would be in an extension of the LIA with temperatures 0.7 C cooler than now. So, 0.7 C may not sound much, but is actually a big deal. Imagine 5 times that change in the other direction. We have shot through the happy medium with no end in sight. Hansen says the ideal is 350 ppm, which is where we were two decades ago.

      • OK, Jim D, hold that sensitivity and calculate how much colder we’d be at 350 ppm. Wouldn’t that be fun?

        Also, how do you account for the millenial scale optima and minima throughout the Holocene?
        ================

      • kim, 350 ppm gives us about 1 C warmer than preindustrial. We are not there yet, but that is where the lagged warming would have stopped if we stopped at 350 ppm. Now, this is all approximate because we are not considering other GHGs or aerosols which roughly cancel each other.

      • Heh, I asked how much colder than now at 350 ppm. And if you think the warming lags, then we’d be even cooler than that.
        ============================

      • Part of the absurdity WRT Marcott is that the problems in calibrating old radioactive-dating data to more recent data results from contamination due to mankind’s use of radioactive material. And to try to correct for the issue by revising the age models, they get shredded for their efforts.

        Face it, this is all about acknowledging man’s continuing ability to alter the environmental landscape. It is what it is, but that doesn’t mean we can’t afford to spend time and money pursuing the analysis.

        Cappy Dick’s pointing to land-use changes is just so much more of that absurd hypocritical garbage that the skeptics try to rationalize as fake concern.

      • kim, not sure about your mathematics there. 350 ppm is 1 C warmer than 280 ppm at equilibrium. We are currently 0.7 C warmer than preindustrial, also below equilibrium. If we stopped at 350 ppm, eventually that 1 C would have been realized, so the temperature would be a little warmer than now, and this is what Hansen is comfortable with.

      • Now you’ve slipped the bounds of the argument. I asked what temperature it would be now without man’s influence. Pick any sensitivity you like and calculate how much colder we would be without man’s influence.
        ===============

      • From Marcott’s reply, we see he was focused on the big picture and other people emphasized things he wasn’t emphasizing. The big picture is that the early Holocene was 0.7 C warmer than the later period around 1900, and that the early 1900’s were colder than 95% of the Holocene. Now within a century we are warmer than 75% of the Holocene, and projections push us past any of the Holocene very quickly. He tried to de-emphasize recent proxies and his work was not on the thermometer temperature record, only the big-picture trend from proxies. He was trying to use good practice for a scientist not to drift from the topic of his paper, tempting though it might be.

      • kim, that was my 1:51 pm reply.

      • Jim D, go back to your 1:51. Take that 0.7 deg C, drop the PPM by 40 and add your lag. We would no longer be in an extension of the LIA, but in a collapse from it.

        So it’s either that or we can hope the sensitivity is lower than you estimate.
        =======================

      • Without AGW, how much ‘colder’ would ‘we’ be?

        All other things being equal, the likeliest path from 1750 to now would put us about 1C to 1.2C lower GMT than currently, arguably in the most likely state.

        Which would tend to reinforce the jetstream rather than decrease it; as we see decreasing the jetstream leads to slower moving larger weather systems, tending to reinforce among other things drought, flood, and in the case of poor Tonyb, winter snow.. even though the GMT is warmer.

        What increasing the jetstream would do, I can’t say.

      • Jim D, your 1:51 was for 390 ppm.

        Your ‘not to drift from the topic of his paper’ is enough to make me howl. Try to be serious.
        =============

      • Yes, Bart R, and we would not be recovering from the LIA as we have from every other climate minima during the Holocene.

        And the higher you estimate the sensitivity, the colder we would be without man.

        You pick a high sensitivity and we are avoiding glaciation. You pick a low sensitivity and we aren’t yet.
        ==============

      • David Wojick

        Bart R, this argument is contradictory: “Observed changes can only be explained by external forcings not because there is some premise of changelessness, but because we know the path of changes without these forcings is not the same as the path with these forcings from pure mathematics of Chaos Theory.”

        If the change is chaotic then the butterfly effect makes it not explainable by a given forcing. The effect of a forcing is intrinsically unpredictable in such cases.

      • Steven Mosher

        Most if not all climate variables oscillate naturally for reasons that are unknown.

        1. Since you offer no definition of what constitutes a “climate variable”
        this claim is technically untestable.
        2. The most important climate variable ( balance at the TOA) does not
        oscillate and we know that over long periods outgoing energy
        must equal incoming energy.
        3. I can think of few “climate variables” that actually oscillate if one is
        prcise an scientific about the meaning of the word oscillate.
        4. “naturally” is a meaningless term since there is nothing “unnatural’ in nature.

        ” If chaotic the reasons may well be unknowable. ”

        1. Its an open question whether the climate is chaotic. From a global standpoint, energy out = energy in, it is not.
        2. A rigourous proof of unknowability might make your position more interesting. As it stands this is bafflegab.

        “If an observed change is due to one of these oscillations then that is the explanation. For example today’s colder temperature is due to a surge of arctic air. The surge is a natural variability explains the temperature change.”

        1. You have not explained the change you have merely renamed it, which is no explanation.

        here is what an explanation “looks like”. Note the shifts in ontology.
        Consider this an “example” of how explanation “works”
        2. The surge of arctic air is explained by changes in circulation patterns, which is explained by changes in ice cover which is explained by a warming planet which is explained by increased GHGs. Whether this is true or not is an open question, but it at least has the “form” of an explanation. Again, note the ontology. If you are not explaining X in terms of Y, where X and Y are different entities, then you have no explanation.

        Your explanation explains the increase in cold air as coming from an increase in cold air. That is, it explains nothing. “natural variation” is
        not an explanation for anything. It points toward quasi peroidic, irregular changes that have not been explained as of yet, but which may be explainable in other terms.

      • Jim D, let’s take your 2:30. If 1900 was lower than 95% of the Holocene, and 1750 was even colder, then if man caused the subsequent rise we’d be at the low end of the Holocene now sans man, and hovering there or dropping. If nature caused the subsequent rise, then sans man we’d still be cooler than 25% of the Holocene, and obviously Nature is capable of that.

        Most of us believe the rise has been a combination of both, and the most auspicious for the future is minimal contribution by man in the rise, a low sensitivity.
        ============

      • Hey moshe, join the fun. Pick a sensitivity that frightens you and calculate how cold we’d be without man’s input.
        ======================

      • kim, the press headline was an eye-catcher for the Marcott paper, but the paper had a completely different emphasis on the whole Holocene, and the “skeptics” have not argued against that part.
        As for the effect of CO2, what temperature do you think 280 ppm corresponds to, if not the preindustrial one? Or are you taking the long view of thousands of more years as the Milankovitch cycle cools us more, or the millions of years that nature takes to reduce the CO2 in the climate system? Without man’s effect we would be at 280 ppm, which combined with weak solar cycles can lead to LIA’s.

      • Jimd

        What do you believe the temperature to be preindustrial? What years do you call pre industrial?
        Tonyb

      • You amuse me, Jim D, when you speak of a pre-industrial temperature. You’ve been gazing into Marcott overly long.

        But if you want to be smooth, pre this industrialization we were at the lowest point of the Holocene. Let us pray that Nature brought us out of that, for anthro CO2 is in short supply.
        ================

      • kim, I would not disagree that a repeat of the LIA would have been possible without man, especially if the present solar slump gets worse. This may be why Hansen preferred 350 ppm (1 C warmer).

      • Tonyb, I would regard preindustrial temperatures to be cooler by 0.7-0.8 C than now, but there would be a half degree total variation due to solar and volcanic effects, as seems to apply to most of the millennium. Some local changes could be larger due to ocean circulation changes.

      • Well, Jim D, I’d agree it is a hanging sword of intuitive curves, and I’m afraid to look up. Let the twine be tough.
        =========================

      • You miss or dodge the point though. With a sensitivity high enough to be dangerous, we would be plunging lower out of the LIA without anthroCO2.
        =====================

      • David Wojick

        Mosher you have thrown out too many arguments for me to reply to all. Let’s try three simple ones. You say:

        “2. The most important climate variable ( balance at the TOA) does not
        oscillate and we know that over long periods outgoing energy
        must equal incoming energy.
        3. I can think of few “climate variables” that actually oscillate if one is
        prcise an scientific about the meaning of the word oscillate.
        4. “naturally” is a meaningless term since there is nothing “unnatural’ in nature.”

        Re 2, Balance is not a variable. I doubt there is a balance as both input and output oscillate independently. Nor do we know that outgoing and incoming energy (per second, month, decade?) must ever be equal, except in passing from time to time. Why should they? Perhaps you are referring to accumulated energy but that too need never be constant. It can rise and fall endlessly.

        Re 3, Oscillate means goes up then down then up then down endlessly. Can you name a climate variable that does not do this, on various time scales?

        Re 4. Naturally means not due to humans.

        I am talking about dynamics but you seem to be talking about something else.

      • kim, no, according to the idea, the CO2 level is the thermostat, or control knob if you prefer. One CO2 level corresponds to one temperature, at least until albedo feedbacks start to matter. 280 ppm corresponds to the preindustrial temperature and that CO2 value applied through the last few millennia. The Holocene cooling was mostly the Milankovitch effect favoring Arctic sea ice in my understanding.

      • kim | March 31, 2013 at 1:40 pm |

        I’m fairly convinced there is no single figure for Climate Sensitivity.. though there may be a function for Climate Sensitivity.

        And while I generally distrust and even mock the terminology “recover from the LIA”, there is some plausible mechanism for recovering from volcanic aerosols (though that is generally subdecadal), so if you can present a plausible mechanism for an LIA-causing event that would take centuries to ‘recover’ from (say by the ‘purging’ of some unknown aerosol from the stratosphere), I’d be all ears.

        Until then, “recover from the LIA” is as meaningless as “escape from goblins”.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Skippy,

        Catastrophe in the sense of Rene Thom is very real for earthquakes. At some stage a tipping point is reached when a very a small further impetus – metaphorically the flap of a butterflies wings – and vast energies are released.

        Climate is similarly a coupled nonlinear, chaotical, dynamical system. This is expressed through climate shifts seen in patterns of ocean and atmospheric conditions. The most important of these climate nodes – defined as nodes in a complex network system – is ENSO. ENSO has significant implication for global drought and rainfall and temperature. A small change – perhaps in solar UV/ozone interactions – initiates a cascade of tremendous energies through powerful systems globally It is a system that varies on decadal to centennial and millennial scales.

        ‘ENSO causes climate extremes across and beyond the Pacific basin; however, evidence of ENSO at high southern latitudes is generally restricted to the South Pacific and West Antarctica. Here, the authors report a statistically significant link between ENSO and sea salt deposition during summer from the Law Dome (LD) ice core in East Antarctica. ENSO-related atmospheric anomalies from the central-western equatorial Pacific (CWEP) propagate to the South Pacific and the circumpolar high latitudes. These anomalies modulate high-latitude zonal winds, with El Niño (La Niña) conditions causing reduced (enhanced) zonal wind speeds and subsequent reduced (enhanced) summer sea salt deposition at LD. Over the last 1010 yr, the LD summer sea salt (LDSSS) record has exhibited two below-average (El Niño–like) epochs, 1000–1260 ad and 1920–2009 ad, and a longer above-average (La Niña–like) epoch from 1260 to 1860 ad. Spectral analysis shows the below-average epochs are associated with enhanced ENSO-like variability around 2–5 yr, while the above-average epoch is associated more with variability around 6–7 yr. The LDSSS record is also significantly correlated with annual rainfall in eastern mainland Australia. While the correlation displays decadal-scale variability similar to changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), the LDSSS record suggests rainfall in the modern instrumental era (1910–2009 ad) is below the long-term average. In addition, recent rainfall declines in some regions of eastern and southeastern Australia appear to be mirrored by a downward trend in the LDSSS record, suggesting current rainfall regimes are unusual though not unknown over the last millennium.’ http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00003.1?journalCode=clim

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Vance2012-AntarticaLawDomeicecoresaltcontent.jpg.html?sort=3&o=37

        We wonder what small changes might trigger coupled nonlinear system responses.

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Historicaltsi-SORCEplots_zps323ffc48.jpg.html#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Historicaltsi-SORCEplots_zps323ffc48.jpg.html?&_suid=136477986038403377944625437762

      • David Wojick | March 31, 2013 at 3:31 pm |

        If the change is chaotic then the butterfly effect makes it not explainable by a given forcing. The effect of a forcing is intrinsically unpredictable in such cases.

        Which does not contradict what I said. Unpredictable does not in all cases mean unbound. The motion of a planet in a three body system may be unpredictable, yet we can say it will never exceed the speed of light. It’s location may be unpredictable, yet we can say it will never occupy two entirely distinct locations at exactly the same time (in a classical system).

        Further, all paths from one state to another that involve exceeding the speed of light or occupying to places at once (except in special cases), can be excluded from contemplation.

        In climate, we can never exclude the possibility that every path we haven’t contemplated individually isn’t real, except in trivial cases, but we can exclude paths including impossible intermediate states, such as those violating Conservation.

        So we can say, “we know the path of changes without these forcings is not the same as the path with these forcings,” without contradiction.

        I would have expected this to be trivially obvious.

  5. Dr. Curry,
    Do you think you could take another whack at this sentence?

    Ocean analysis (ocean models that assimilate observations ) is used to initialize ocean models are critical for making weather forecasts at timescales beyond 10 days using coupled atmosphere/ocean models.

    I think I can see what you are getting at, but it would be nice to be certain.

  6. Missing heat is to be found deep in the North Atlantic, apparently sunk by a cold blast from the Central Siberia.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AMF.htm

  7. If we’re looking to solve a ‘problem’ we’d better first define the problem. If the temperature of the globe is a part of the problem it should be interesting to know what causes it and over the last 150 years the correlation between CO2 and temperature is 22% compared to the correlation with sunspots which is 79%. But, there’s nothing anyone can do about what the Sun does so who do we look to for help? “None of our ancestors were led to survival by high priests in green robes with computer models chanting anti-energy and anti-food slogans.

  8. The proposal that the acceleration of summer ice melt results in a conveyor of the coldest but least saline meltwater to the upper oceans leading to a pumping of warmer but more saline waters beneath thermal inversion layers is one of the many mechanisms whereby global warming could lead to eventual global cooling.

    Lowering the surface by eight degrees after lags and indirect effects might only warm the deepest ocean 0.1 degrees in such a scenario.. which I still think unlikely for obvious reasons.

    Still, more feasible than the various proposed cloud iris effects; while I give low credibility to BTK2013 at this early stage — it’s no B.E.S.T. by far — it is an unsurprising outcome. And points to the shame that we do not monitor our climate as responsible stewards ought.

    • Chief Hydrologist

      As water moves north it loses both mass and heat until the density is low enough for the water to sink. The mixing of fresh meltwater in the surface mixing zone reduces the salinity of the surface water decreasing density and reducing bottom water formation. This is the mechanism by which meridional overturning circulation is expected to diminish substantially this century – with little confidence that there won’t be an abrupt change.

      It is presumed that when conditions are suitable – as a result of orbtal ecentricities – that this can lead to ice feedbacks in particular. Thus global warming can lead to abrupt global cooling.

      • David Springer

        You say water loses mass as it moves north.

        Where does the lost mass go?

      • Chief Hydrologist

        The hydrological cycle – where else do you imagine it might go?

      • David Springer

        It’s still water throughout the hydrologic cycle. What I think you must have meant is as it proceeds northward evaporation exceeds precipitation.

        Increasing salinity because evaporation exceeds precipitation is mostly wrong of course. Salinity increases from the equator to the tropics of cancer and capricorn. From there on salinity decreases as you move towards the poles and precipitation exceeds evaporation.

        http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter06/chapter06_03.htm

        You ought to try cracking open a textbook once in a while. But I guess that would mean admitting to yourself you might not know everything already. LOL

      • David Springer

        Another thing to keep in mind (more textbook stuff) is that saltwater is denser than freshwater so the decreasing salinity going from tropics to poles helps keep the warm layer afloat.

        Yet another thing to keep in mind is that below about 300 meters (which is kept mixed by surface turbulence) the ocean temperature is a fairly constant 3C. So in order for surface water to sink as it nears the poles it has to get substantially below 3C. It has to get below 3C because it is less saline.

        Sinking doesn’t occur much less than 60S or 70N latitude. Same sub chapter of Intro to Physical Oceanography textbook 6.3 Geographical Distribution of Surface Temperature and Salinity cited above has SST global distribution winter/summer in the opening. Evaporation, precipitation, and salinity are developed further on down.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        No what is obviously meant is that the ocean loses mass. And we are talking about the Gulf Stream which I discuss below somewhere.

        You make such idiotic and trivial points. All with your usual tedious and juvenile jibes. What happened to your pathetic whine about moderation?

      • David, you mean like this,
        http://aquarius.nasa.gov/images/SSS_composites/2012/Nov/Q20123062012335.SSS.MO.Nov.moll.4096×2048.png

        Generally, the regional ocean salinity increases when the precipitation isn’t returned to the regional ocean surface, a precipitation deficit.

        In an ideal world, the salinity would be greatest in the tropics, land mass would be uniformly distributed, the thermal equator would be at the physical equator, but such is life.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Dallas,

        That is fantastic. Loved the animation on the main page – thanks. I have added it to my favourites and have been plotting pofiles back to 1800 at various depths. I am so impressed.

      • David Springer

        Yes Dallas exactly like that. Repeating myself, salinity increases from the equator to the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn then decreases from there as it leaves the tropics and heads towards the poles. Ellison evidently wasn’t aware of that now he’s in a snit about being corrected. Well make that a bigger snit because I think he was born in a snit. I do like how he gushes over the Aquarius Mission web site and I’d remind him to thank America for it and for allowing his larrikin blue horse riding butt to view it for free over the internet on a personal computer which are both also American technologies.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        ‘As water moves north it loses both mass and heat until the density is low enough for the water to sink. The mixing of fresh meltwater in the surface mixing zone reduces the salinity of the surface water decreasing density and reducing bottom water formation. This is the mechanism by which meridional overturning circulation is expected to diminish substantially this century – with little confidence that there won’t be an abrupt change.’

        Now I trust that the concept of mass balance as used in hydrology is simple enough. Hypersaline water moves north well past the Tropic of Cancer to the where it is one of the drivers of thermohaline circulation.

        I really can’t help it if you pull it out of your arse, criticise it and then pat yourself on the back for some reason or other while casting uncouth aspersions on all and sundry This seems however to be a pattern in your behaviour – a symptom of wanting to be the smartest dipsh_t in the room without remotely having any depth in the Earth sciences at all. .

        So sad – too bad.

      • David Springer

        No amount of actual data will convince you that are wrong, will it?

        Salinity decreases as water moves from the tropics to the poles. This is simple, observed, and factual. The decreasing salinity helps keep it afloat. Sinking is accomplished by cooling. Below the mixed layer the water temperature is 3C. The mixed layer must be cooled below this before it will sink. These are the facts. You deny them like a petulant child that can’t stand being corrected then lash out in a flaming fit of schoolyard pique. And speaking of boorish you’re a self-admitted “larrikin” from the Great Western which by definition is a ill-bred fellow. You sure live up to it. Grow up.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Whoops – wrong place. You spend 10 minutes in the internet and 6 hours insisting on something eveyone knows. And has a correspondence with anything I said only in your fetid imagination.

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/density_zps24f5bdd3.jpg.html#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/density_zps24f5bdd3.jpg.html?&_suid=13647212317780027759772625072565

        Nice little site with interactive pages and a historical database. I am wondering if I can do anything useful with it.

        These sorts of data are shared across the world – and data gathering is a global endevour from ARGO to the Global Terrestrial Network – Hydrology and much else.

        And I don’t have a blue horse and don’t frequent the Great Western – you must be thinking of someone else.

        You are sounding a lot like webby – a pompous twit with a humour bypass and a penchant for absurd self aggandisement.

      • Changes in the jet stream leading to slower moving, longer lasting weather systems will tend to increase salinity imbalance, or decrease?

        Will the uptake due evaporation be balanced more in the same region by precipitation there rather than wind transport elsewhere, (likewise, will precipitation be balanced by evaporation that follows), or is it the opposite: precipitation-laden systems will just rain more in one spot for longer times while clear hot breezy systems will uptake more surface moisture concentrating salinity more?

        And what effect on ocean circulation will result?

      • David Springer

        Chief Hydrologist | March 31, 2013 at 5:55 am |

        “And I don’t have a blue horse and don’t frequent the Great Western – you must be thinking of someone else.”

        Ah. I’d assumed that Chief Hydrologist was aware of his alter-ego Captain Kangaroo the larrikin who rides a blue horse named Shibboleth in the Great Western.

        So my choices are that you have a real honest to god multiple personality or you are a liar. Or maybe only some of your multiple personalities are liars? Which is it, eh Sybil?

      • Generalissimo Skippy

        Perhaps I can answer – and please note that I have promoted myself since taking control of this blog and annexing the New Zealand cricket team.

        I can neither confirm nor deny my true identity – it is a secret of the climate war known only to a cowgirl with a lasso.

        But we know who you are Dave Springer – and are sending a crack team of drop bear commandos to deal with you as I speak.

        Be very afraid Dave Springer.

    • Global warming has become an industry — an industry that even attacked a 15 year old girl (Kristen Byrnes, Ponder the Maunder) for having the temerity to question the merits of Al Gore ‘s science. It was climate change frauds like Mann, Bradley, Hughes, Briffa and Jones who hid behind filing cabinets full of purposefully biased junk science and refused to admit the truth of any fact that conflicted with the ‘hockey stick’ picture of the world they sought to paint. Their world is one where evil American capitalism is blight that is poisoning the planet with its human-produced CO2 that will cause runaway global warming if it is not stopped by a bigger secular, socialist EU-style Eurocommunist government and economy.

    • Chief Hydrologist

      You spend 10 minutes in the internet and 6 hours insisting on something eveyone knows. And has a correspondence with anything I said only in your fetid imagination.

      http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/density_zps24f5bdd3.jpg.html#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/density_zps24f5bdd3.jpg.html?&_suid=13647212317780027759772625072565

      Nice little site with interactive pages and a historical database. I am wondering if I can do anything useful with it.

      These sorts of data are shared across the world – and data gathering is a global endevour from ARGO to the Global Terrestrial Network – Hydrology and much else.

      And I don’t have a blue horse and don’t frequent the Great Western – you must be thinking of someone else.

      You are sounding a lot like webby – a pompous twit with a humour bypass and a penchant for absurd self aggandisement.

  9. Colour me somewhat skeptical about a complicated and complex “re-analysis” process that just happens to find the missing heat. What parameters were built in to the re-analysis? Did they include expected increased in ocean heat content? There have been too many circular arguments in climate models to date.

    • Steven Mosher

      go read up on re analysis. If you dont like it go tell Anthony Watts, he used it in his paper on land records.

    • Why don’t you at least read the paper before you disparage it? That’s not too much to ask.

      • You could say that about the reanalysis demonstrating skydragon argument i+1. Not sayin theres a strong equivalence, just that reputations and biases do matter in first impressions when a custom methodological process finds results as significant for the field (and policy) as this paper does.

  10. “Has Trenberth found the missing heat?”

    Question begging at its finest. We can’t even say with any confidence that there’s any missing heat in the first place. WHy should we assume there is? Because the models tell us so? The same models that predicted less snow, rising seas, drought where there is flooding, and flooding where there are droughts? The same models that predicted more intense and more frequent hurricanes? The same models that predicted no 15-20 year pause?

    • Of course many alarmists around here won’t even concede there is any missing heat….

      • At least Dr. Curry used well placed quotation marks over the word “missing.” Good to see.

        Dr. Curry rocks.

      • “rocks”

        Sure. If you were taking one of her final exams, would you say the same thing if one of the TA’s assigned you a fat big “F” ?
        In quotation marks. That’s what happens when you don’t do the math.
        Tough nougies, PG. No points for responding to your own comment.

        BTW, that’s what I always visualize when I read many commenters on this site — hunched over with beads of sweat while while poring over a blue exam book. It must be nice to comment w/o having a fear of failure.

      • David Springer

        WebHubTelescope | March 29, 2013 at 9:29 pm |

        “It must be nice to comment w/o having a fear of failure.”

        You would know that better than anyone, Mr. Fake Name.

  11. What is the total volume of the deep ocean below 700 meters compared to that above 700 meters? Did the original models include no mixing of the two ocean layers as an assumption?
    If there really is mixing of heat into the deep ocean on such short time scales, will this suggest that the rate of heating will not take place over 100 years but over say 300 years? (depending on relative volumes of two layers)

    • David Springer

      The average depth of the ocean is 4000 meters so 700 meters is about 18% of the total. Everything below about 300 meters is a relatively constant 3C in temperature. The average temperature of the entire ocean, top to bottom, is 4C.

      Few people seem to realize that our modestly warm interglacial period is dependent on a shallow layer of warm water floating atop the frigid bulk of the ocean. If that warm layer were to accelerate its mixing with the bulk of the ocean we’d be a world of hurt most riki tik.

      • Off subject, but I haven’t heard “riki tik” since I left Vietnam :)….

      • David Springer

        I enlisted in the Marine Corps shortly before the end of the Vietnam war. It was in common use at the time on Marine bases. I attended Navy electronics schools the first year and didn’t hear it there. First time was at MCAS El Toro, CA which was my first and last permanent duty station. It’s also used in the movie “Full Metal Jacket” which, by the way, was spooky accurate in depicting USMC boot camp at Paris Island. Stanley Kubric didn’t miss any tiny detail about the recruit barracks there. It was eerie as hell watching it 13 years later. R. Lee Ermey is a dead ringer for my senior drill instructor Staff Sgt. Taffy too in both appearance, voice, and manner.

  12. michael hart

    Well if he has found the recalcitrant heat at that depth, it didn’t get there by sunlight, IR, or diffusion, so the transported water should have taken a lot of missing CO2 with it. He should be looking for that signature. In fact I expect that’s what he’s doing right now… lol

  13. Chief Hydrologist

    ‘•The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming:
    •but the data are surely wrong.
    • Our observing system is inadequate.
    That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like
    CPC are tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn’t decadal….’

    Surely it isn’t decadal. Perhaps it is and don’t call me Shirley.

    The other mixing mechanism is when currents move over obstructions on the seabed – setting up eddies and entraining the surface mixed layer. An increase in the velocity of deep currents could do it.

    But it still isn’t what the graph shows about El Nino.

    This is from Wong et al 2006 – it compares net ERBS to ocean heat content from Josh Willis. OHC increases to 1998 and then declines to the 1999 La Nina. One might think there is some connection here.

    http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Wong2006figure7.gif.html?sort=3&o=91

    Here’s one with steric sea level rise and Nino 3.4 sea suface temperature superimposed from rankexploits.

    http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SatelliteNino34a.jpg

    Here’s one from Norman Loeb showing increased cloud in the tropics with La Nina and vice vera – and a bit of a mixed result in mid latitudes. There is an obvious and close correlation with ENSO in the tropics

    http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Loeb2011-LWCERES.png.html?sort=3&o=35#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Loeb2011-LWCERES.png.html?sort=3&o=35&_suid=13645919256110935105283118433

    Although there are factors other than ENSO in global cloud – there is an obvious connection beween cloud and reflected SW.

    http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/CERES_MODIS-1.gif.html?sort=3&o=49#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/CERES_MODIS-1.gif.html?sort=3&o=49&_suid=136459263745506076340994906129

  14. The heat was never missing. This is effective diffusion as outlined by Hansen in his 1981 paper.
    J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, “Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide,” Science, vol. 213 (4511), pp. 957–966.

    The following post is a definitive explanation for how heat diffuses from the surface through the various depths
    http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html

    • A definitive explanation for how heat diffuses from the surface through the various depths – without once mentioning the word, ‘thermocline’
      Hmmm….

      • Entropy reflects the notion that energy will try to uniformly spread itself out within a volume or state-space, given constraints. The specific process of diffusion describes this process of heat flowing from regions of initially higher concentrations to that of lower concentrations.

        What we have in the ocean system is a volume with likely many different diffusive paths downward from the infrared-heated surface. The heat entering the surface is the thermal forcing function and it has been increasing over time according to the global temperature data. If we pick an average thermal diffusion coefficient such as what Hansen picked (1 cm^2/sec), then the general agreement is very good, both temporally and how the layers pick up the excess heat.

        One can also use this reference to come up with a similar diffusivity:
        http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter08/chapter08_05.htm
        = 1.3e-4 m^2/s = Average Vertical Eddy Diffusivity (8.32)

        Whether the scientists are lying about the data and its pedigree, I can’t say. But what I can say is that the evolution of the heat downward from the surface is following a textbook diffusion process. Hansen also described this in his 1981 paper.

        The only spin on the subject that I can add is that I know how to solve uncertainty quantified diffusion, which is a staple of the new and improved stochastic approaches that many scientists have applied across different disciplines. The physics behind it is not out-of-the-ordinary and the only thing surprising about the technique is that one can get an analytical closed-form result out of the solution.

      • Webster, Yes, the evolution of the heat downward is remarkably predictable. Average solar forcing at the surface is ~340 Wm-2 and the average energy of the oceans is roughly 334.5 Wm-2. That 334.5 Wm-2 is roughly the average energy of the Earth blackbody which produces the ~334.5 Wm-2 of DWLR and since the ocean surface area is only ~70% of the radiant shell of Earth, the average Eout is ~0.7*334.5 = 234.5 Wm-2. Since the oceans are not uniformly distributed, during the precessional cycle there is a variation of total solar energy felt at the average ocean surface that produces a range of “average” ocean temperature from ~2.6 C to 4.0 C degrees over a rather long time scale.

        Since the rate of current ocean heat uptake is roughly 0.6×10^22 Joules per years, how many years would be required for the “average” temperature of the oceans to rise 1 C degree?

        https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BFHNuJM8qm8/UVYZqjStgtI/AAAAAAAAHpU/6jphBeRewXw/s912/45N%2520to%2520pole%2520tdo%2520%2520bintanja%2520with%2520Kim%2520and%2520Ruehlmann.png

        It is a shame that there are so many oscillations in the paleo data.

      • “Since the rate of current ocean heat uptake is roughly 0.6×10^22 Joules per years, how many years would be required for the “average” temperature of the oceans to rise 1 C degree?”

        That is a completely separate question and has little to do with the question of diffusion of thermal energy.

        As far as an spatially averaged surface global temperature, the final result will be something like :
        T_avg = 0.7*T_aqua + 0.3*T_land
        (this reflects the 70/30 split of ocean to land area)

        The heat entering the ocean will suppress T_aqua and thus suppress the average from what the T_land is showing.

        So if 1/3 to 1/2 of the excess heat is being siphoned to the bulk ocean volume, then the actual ocean surface temperature would be 2/3 to 1/2 it would be on land.

        So the T_avg may be between
        T_avg = 0.7*(1/2*T_land) + 0.3*T_land = 0.65*T_land

        T_avg = 0.7*(2/3*T_land) + 0.3*T_land = 0.77*T_land

        Easy enough to observe the differences between land-based averages such as BEST, and ocean&land averages such as GIStemp. BEST has gone up by about 1.2C while the global average about 0.8C.

        This is the key figure from Hansen’s seminal 1981 paper which shows how this average temperature gets partitioned:
        http://imageshack.us/a/img802/3918/hansen1981.gif

        I suspect Trenberth and company are working out this partitioning more accurately. If there was missing heat at this point, it is becoming a second-order effect. This is still important but not the “Missing Heat!” in headlines that skeptics like to assert — for instance, whatever the Google Galileo known as Bob Tisdale says on the subject has to be filtered by the first order effects he is trying to obscure.

        Bottomline, is that average temperature is still increasing. The bulk of the ocean will not show any appreciable change, but this was already known given the significant 1000:1 ration between the heat capacity of liquid water versus that of the atmosphere. Hansen had it largely figured out in 1981 and they are working out the details like any scientific analysis would demand.

      • Webster, timing is important. Even though its accuracy is not great, the paleo ocean data show the general oscillations and the impact of the mixing efficiency of the oceans, just like Manabe, Toggwieler and others have noted. Since the oceans appear to be on 150 to 400 year upturn, that would impact the sensitivity estimate and attribution. The problem is the macro-weather or micro-climate oscillations, your choice, add considerable uncertainty.

        Those paleo ocean reconstructions are for the Atlantic BTW which has the highest correlation with land warming because of Eurasia and Africa. In the North Atlantic, salinity is a pretty fair temperature proxy.

      • Do you know what the thermocline is?

      • “phatboy | March 29, 2013 at 7:57 pm |

        Do you know what the thermocline is?”

        Isthmus be your lucky day, phatboy, since limnology is the only earth sciences course I took when I was in college. A thermocline in northern latitude freshwater lakes guarantees complete mixing of the volume of water every season. So, no, a thermocline does not scare me. Saltwater does not show the same turnover but mixing does occur. Any diffusive upwelling has to be countered by a diffusive downwelling. Flows going both ways is divergence, and that is modeled as a diffusion.

        Did you realize that a 1 cm^2/sec thermal diffusion coefficient makes the vertical eddy diffusivity as good a thermal conductor as copper?
        Isn’t that a neat factoid?

      • Web > Bottomline, is that average temperature is still increasing. The bulk of the ocean will not show any appreciable change, but this was already known given the significant 1000:1 ration between the heat capacity of liquid water versus that of the atmosphere.

        We know the atmosphere isn’t warming, and you say the bulk of the ocean will not show not appreciable change.
        So by what logic do you conclude your ‘bottomline’ that the average temperature is still increasing ? Or is this ‘bottomline’ an article of faith rather than a conclusion ?

      • We know the atmosphere isn’t warming,

        No, we don’t know what?
        (What time period are you talking about?)

      • “So by what logic do you conclude your ‘bottomline’ that the average temperature is still increasing ? Or is this ‘bottomline’ an article of faith rather than a conclusion ?”

        As far as an spatially averaged surface global temperature, the final result will be something like :
        T_avg = 0.7*T_aqua + 0.3*T_land
        (this reflects the 70/30 split of ocean to land area)

        The heat entering the ocean will suppress T_aqua and thus suppress the average from what the T_land is showing. That which does not enter the ocean contributes to excess atmospheric heat.

        So if 1/3 to 1/2 of the excess heat is being siphoned to the bulk ocean volume, then the actual ocean surface temperature would be 2/3 to 1/2 it would be on land.

        So the T_avg may be between
        T_avg = 0.7*(1/2*T_land) + 0.3*T_land = 0.65*T_land

        T_avg = 0.7*(2/3*T_land) + 0.3*T_land = 0.77*T_land

        Easy enough to observe the differences between land-based averages such as BEST, and ocean&land averages such as GIStemp. BEST has gone up by about 1.2C while the global average about 0.8C.

        Average temperature continues to clearly increase as long as relatively short-term fluctuation noise is filtered out.

      • David Springer

        WebHubTelescope | March 29, 2013 at 6:31 pm |

        “What we have in the ocean system is a volume with likely many different diffusive paths downward from the infrared-heated surface.”

        There is no infrared heating of the ocean. It’s heated by shortwave.

        That’s quite a boner even for you.

      • “We assume that excess heat (mostly infrared) is injected through the ocean’s surface and works its way down through the depths by an effective diffusion coefficient. The kernel transient solution to the planar heat equation is this:”

        Hot water rises, cold water sinks.

        Why?

        Because hot water is less dense than cold water and so spontaneously will rise.

        Exactly as happens in the real gas atmosphere which is also a fluid volume, liquids and gases are fluids.

        Hot air rises cold air sinks.

        Hot air is less dense and lighter than cold air.

        As hot air rises colder heavier denser air will flow beneath.

        That’s how we get our winds.

        Winds are volumes of the fluid gas Air on the move.

        Winds are currents of the fluid gas Air on the move.

        Liquid water and real gas air are fluids, the method of heat transfer in a fluid is convection.

        Winds are convection currents, currents in the ocean are convection currents.

        Hot water rises because it expands becoming less dense and lighter than cold water, cold water which is heavier and denser displaces the hotter rising water, sinking, flowing beneath.

        If the ocean is getting hotter below 700 metres, then it will be because there is more heat being produced at depth.

        Get rid of your “imaginary empty space ideal gas atmosphere” with the ridiculous idea of “weightless hard dots of massless molecules not subject to gravity zipping around at huge speeds under their own molecular momentum mixing by diffusion as they bounce off each other in elastic collisions” and –

        Bring Back the heavy ocean of real gas Air atmosphere above us, which is gases with real volume which expand and become lighter and rise when hotter and contract and become heavier and sink when colder, than the volumes of real gas with volume weight around them.

        If you don’t know how we get our winds and currents..

        For a rational look at what could be causing heat at depths in the ocean, if there is such a thing, please see http://carbon-budget.geologist-1011.net/ and take on board the gross underestimations of underwater volcanic activity.

        “In point of fact, the total worldwide estimate of roughly 55 MtCpa is by one researcher, rather than “scientists” in general. More importantly, this estimate by Gerlach (1991) is based on emission measurements taken from only seven subaerial volcanoes and three hydrothermal vent sites. Yet the USGS glibly claims that Gerlach’s estimate includes both subaerial and submarine volcanoes in roughly equal amounts. Given the more than 3 million volcanoes worldwide indicated by the work of Hillier & Watts (2007), one might be prone to wonder about the statistical significance of Gerlach’s seven subaerial volcanoes and three hydrothermal vent sites. If the statement of the USGS concerning volcanic CO2 is any indication of the reliability of expert consensus, it would seem that verifiable facts are eminently more trustworthy than professional opinion.

        “This is not an isolated case.”

      • “We assume that excess heat (mostly infrared) is injected through the ocean’s surface and works its way down through the depths by an effective diffusion coefficient.”

        Really?

      • Myrrh citing a crackpot psuedo-science site is…

        well i’ll leave it at that.

      • This is just becoming too good…

      • David, salinity “generally” decreases as you move towards the poles. NH salinity is less “general” and more a function of the thermal equator (ITCZ) and THC. “Global” land temperature follows the Atlantic pretty well.

      • Springer sez:

        “There is no infrared heating of the ocean. It’s heated by shortwave.”

        Obviously, the balance is not strictly between between up and down infrared radiation, but rather the balance is between downward visible shorter wavelength radiation, versus upward net infrared and latent heat fluxes. The word NET is very important as infrared will back-reflect and re-emit as many times as the characteristics of the medium demand. If there is difference in the net, then the heat will diffuse downward, as nature abhors arbitrary order.

        Is this argument so hard that you need an EE PhD to help you understand it?

        Springer, we may need another treatise on your life history to help explain to us what you do or do not know.

      • David Springer

        phatboy | March 30, 2013 at 7:15 am |

        WHT: “We assume that excess heat (mostly infrared) is injected through the ocean’s surface and works its way down through the depths by an effective diffusion coefficient.”

        PHAT: Really?

        Good one. You like how he prattles on about IR diffusing downward after that? It’s almost like he doesn’t realize that mid-IR doesn’t propagates through water as visible light propagates through stainless steel which is to say not at all.

        Well it’s not almost like, it’s exactly like. :-)

      • David Springer

        WebHubTelescope | March 30, 2013 at 1:39 pm |

        “Springer, we may need another treatise on your life history to help explain to us what you do or do not know.”

        The life history is “colorful commentary” to spice up boring stuff like water’s almost complete opacity to mid-infrared radiation. You obviously didn’t learn much of anything in physical sciences in school, and haven’t picked up much about same since then. You seem like a bright enough guy so I’m not blaming you I’m blaming the pedagogical ineptitude of those who had the opportunity to instruct you. So I’m making up for that by being such a colorful character you hang on my every word and I must say at least that part is working out and simple osmosis should do the rest of the job. Do you know what osmosis is?

      • “Good one. You like how he prattles on about IR diffusing downward after that? It’s almost like he doesn’t realize that mid-IR doesn’t propagates through water as visible light propagates through stainless steel which is to say not at all.”

        Springer is a liar. IR doesn’t diffuse downward, thermal energy (heat) is what diffuses downward. The IR gets converted to heat when the water absorbs it.

      • WebHubTelescope: Your categorization of me as a “Google Galileo” indicates you’ve either never read my work or you’ve failed comprehend it. In case it’s the latter, I’ll try to make it easier to understand in the future.

        Second, I do not obscure. I present what’s obvious in global data when you break the global data down into logical subsets.

        Have a nice day.

      • I referred to Bob Tisdale as a Google Galileo because that is what the commenters at Jeff Masters’ Weather Underground blog are calling him.

        http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2374

    • The line-shape of the temperature gradient in the oceans is a hockey stick. from 4 km to about 700m the temperature is 4 degrees, it only warms significantly towards the top.
      The bottom of the ocean isn’t in thermal equilibrium with the top. Cold water has to be pumped into the ocean to match the diffusion of heat. As the ocean is mostly cold we know that in the main more cold goes into the depths than warmth.
      Global warming demands an increase in cold water going into the oceans.

      • “Global warming demands an increase in cold water going into the oceans.”

        Perhaps. Yet the amount of heat entering from the radiative imbalance is greater and more than compensates that effect. It has to be from the laws of thermodynamics.

        So if nothing else what you describe is a mechanism which supports greater thermal mixing and is a factor in defining the effective thermal diffusivity of the ocean. A disordered mix of upwelling and downwelling flows mathematically looks no different than diffusion. And diffusion is the divergence part of the continuity equation, which gives any solution some mathematical rigor.

      • “Yet the amount of heat entering from the radiative imbalance is greater and more than compensates that effect. It has to be from the laws of thermodynamics”

        I am all ears. How does the non-equilibrium temperature gradient of the oceans tell us anything about the Oceans Thermodynamics?
        Well the only way we can have a disequilibrium is to have a steady state cooling process for the bottom of the ocean. this is provided by cold brines coming from the poles or from winter dowwelling currents.

        I can tell you that NO down welling atmospheric IR gets below 30m of the water. NONE.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        In higher latutudes the energy losses from surface waters exceed the inputs – so the water chills of course. In the NH – water evaporates on the way north leaving saltier and denser water. As it cools in the journey to the north – driven by THC, winds and Coriolis forces – it becomes more dense than the water beneath and sinks. Fresh meltwater inhibits this process.

        Here’s an eddy mixing nutrient rich sub-surface water in the mixed layer. The reverse is happening as well.

        http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2012/02/plankton-fueled-ocean-eddy-is.html

        The really interesting thing is how this changes and how it might change in the future.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        It certainly is sloppy thinking we have come to expect from webby. The rediation from the atmosphere is all in that mid range IR that doesn’t penetrate more than 100 or so microns – it is typically outweighed by IR losses from the same thin slice of surface water producing a very thin cold layer on the surface. It is called a skin but is in reality simply a product of the net loss of IR which proceeds faster than the mixing that is constantly changing the water at the surface. All the heat going into the oceans is from the sun.

      • Chief Hydrologist has anyone ever shine light of different wavelength onto a thermally isolated bucket of seawater, on a balance, with a thermometer in it?
        Absorbed heat can be manifest either a sensible or latent heat. I have a suspicion that IR is more likely to be transformed into latent heat and visible into sensible heat.

      • DocMartyn says:

        “I can tell you that NO down welling atmospheric IR gets below 30m of the water. NONE.”

        If that was the lone final exam question, you just failed.

        Thermal energy does not obey any external forces like a charge would in the vicinity of an electric field or a particle under the influence of gravity. Heat in the form of thermal energy can diffuse to wherever it wants and won’t obey if you tell it to stay above 30 meters below the surface of the ocean. Entropy is a formidable foe, just so you know.

      • “Absorbed heat can be manifest either a sensible or latent heat. I have a suspicion that IR is more likely to be transformed into latent heat and visible into sensible heat.”

        Ok, so all the excess heat is not diffused downward, and no one ever said it all was. One-half or more may in fact return to the atmosphere, as this would be needed to explain why the “above surface” temperatures are elevated. If all the IR energy was absorbed into deeper layers at the rate it is now, the temperature rise would be minimal, reflecting the large specific heat capacity of water.

        In heavy-duty engineering designs, we have two common cooling techniques, applying a contact heat sink or using evaporative, i.e.spray cooling. Where does the excess heat go in each of these cases? What if we used both? Plus how effective is spray cooling in a greenhouse? Why are swamp coolers (evaporative air conditioning) effective in desert regions but not in the deep south?

        What do your “suspicions” say?

      • Since when is IR absorbed by the oceans? Water is opaque to IR.

      • maksiimovich

        “Thermal energy does not obey any external forces like a charge would in the vicinity of an electric field or a particle under the influence of gravity. Heat in the form of thermal energy can diffuse to wherever it wants”

        Heat transport is a large ill posed problem( like the heat equation),transport is often ill-defined,and the use of analogy such as baths is often based on primitive assumptions and limited where there is an absence of rigorous mathematical physics such as far from equilibrium systems.

        In systems which are bounded, such as harmonic oscillators problems are also constraints as Fourier’s law does not hold in a HO.A proble that is almost obvious as well night and day.

        In (an)harmonic oscillators the problem is significant,you cannot guess the directions of the flows ie Kirchhoff circuit law does not hold Eg Eckmann.

        http://arxiv.org/pdf/nlin/0305006.pdf

      • “Chief Hydrologist | March 29, 2013 at 7:31 pm |

        It certainly is sloppy thinking we have come to expect from webby. The rediation from the atmosphere is all in that mid range IR that doesn’t penetrate more than 100 or so microns – it is typically outweighed by IR losses from the same thin slice of surface water producing a very thin cold layer on the surface. It is called a skin but is in reality simply a product of the net loss of IR which proceeds faster than the mixing that is constantly changing the water at the surface. All the heat going into the oceans is from the sun.”

        This is a completely misguided set of half-truths coming from the schools of FUD and FOO.

        if you could find one reference that demonstrates how a mid-range IR photon can directly activate a water molecule to vaporize from the surface, I would be surprised. The photon first turns into thermal energy, as e,g. a vibrational mode, and from there can effectively diffuse to deeper water via eddy currents.

        I don’t understand why the Chief always wants to disregard conventional physics. Could it be because the powers of FOO and FUD are too tempting?

      • “phatboy | March 29, 2013 at 8:10 pm |

        Since when is IR absorbed by the oceans? Water is opaque to IR.”

        Oh plump one, have you never heard of Kirchoff’s law that says that a good emitter makes a good absorber?

        BTW, being opaque is not the same as being reflected. A flat-black film is opaque but a shiny silver thin is also opaque.

      • This is the Visible/IR spectra of Pure water

        http://omlc.ogi.edu/spectra/water/data/irvine68.dat

        here is Wiki’s diagram

        http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/Absorption_spectrum_of_liquid_water.png

        An extinction coefficient of 1 means 90% of light is absorbed within a 1 cm pathlength.
        An extinction coefficient of 2 means 99% of light is absorbed within within a 1 cm pathlength.
        An extinction coefficient of 3 means 99.9% of light is absorbed within within a 1 cm pathlength.

        Black body radiation from a body at 300K peaks at 10 microns.

        Sea water is filled with all sorts of IR absorbing goodies too

        Tell me again how the Magic IR photons from CO2 get through water and transmit their heat to water lower than 300m.

        I am all ears.

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        DocMartyn thirst for knowledge  “Tell me again [physical processes] transmit their heat to water lower than 300m. I am all ears.”

        Your thirst for knowledge is commendable DocMartyn.

        Answer  Heat is transported by Turbulent mixing driven by mean-flow shear and internal gravity waves in oceans and atmospheres.

        Short answer  The ubiquitous (in the ocean) three-fold combination of stratification, shear, and waves is associated to anomalously great heat transport. This emerging dynamical insight is wholly consonant with Trenberth’s observational analysis.

        Background  A thorough introduction to internal gravity waves can be found in Flatte and Munk’s classic Sound Transmission through a Fluctuating Ocean

        Encouragement  Keep asking good, sincere, scientific questions, DocMartyn! Because that’s how one learns, eh?

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • DocMartyn said:

        “Tell me again how the Magic IR photons from CO2 get through water and transmit their heat to water lower than 300m.”

        Well, how is this?

        ” ‘Tell me about the rabbits, George’, Steinbeck, Of Mice and Men”

        See the explanation here assuming a D of ~1 cm^2/sec
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html
        Within a few seconds the thermal energy is already diffused to a deeper layer. To get to 300 meters it will take on the order of years, but it will get there. That’s a property of diffusion.

      • David L. Hagen

        DocMartyn
        Re: “Global warming demands an increase in cold water going into the oceans.”
        How are you distinguishing natural global warming from anthropogenic global warming?
        How are you including from mining water for irrigation versus storing water in dams storage?
        What if warming is faster than melting?
        What if water mining is faster than melting?
        Note: 18 trillion tons of water mined from aquifers, depleting groundwater and raising sea levels May 20, 2012 | DGR News Service

        The pumping out of groundwater is five times bigger in scale than the melting of the planet’s two great ice caps, in Greenland and Antarctica, and twice as great as both the melting of all other glaciers and ice or the thermal expansion of seawater.

      • Web > the amount of heat entering from the radiative imbalance

        Except we don’t actually know there is a radiative imbalance, since we don’t as yet have clever enough instruments to accurately measure this. All we have is models and some people’s faith in them.

      • So what is causing the 1.2 C warming increase on land?

        Is that a model of a figment of someone’s imagination, Topcat?

      • Web, because the ocean surface is warmer than the atmosphere, it’s already emitting more IR than it’s absorbing from above, so no, it doesn’t actually absorb any in the net sense.
        OTOH, it absorbs SW radiation from the sun to a depth of several hundred metres

      • David Springer

        Evaporation rate decreases as you move away from equator.

        http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter05/Images/Fig5-9.htm

        Salinity increases moving away from the equator only until the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone where precipitation is greater than evaporation. From ITCZ to the poles precipitation continues to outpace evaporation.

        http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter06/Images/Fig6-5.htm

        Chief Kangaroo Skippy Ellison has it exactly backwards. No surprise there of course.

      • David Springer

        WebHubTelescope | March 29, 2013 at 8:26 pm |

        “Oh plump one, have you never heard of Kirchoff’s law that says that a good emitter makes a good absorber? ”

        Oh anonymous one have you never heard of a swamp cooler?

        Hundreds of Watts/m2 of downwelling mid-infrared is completely absorbed in the top 10 micrometers of ocean surface. Think about what happens when you jam that much energy into a few cubic centimeters of water. I’ll give you three chances to say “vaporization”.

        What happens is that the topmost few microns of the ocean are constantly being peeled away by evaporation driven by infrared absorption. Actually more energy is removed than is absorbed and this results in what is called “the cool skin layer”. The cool skin layer is 1 millimeter deep and is about 1C cooler than the ocean below it.

        The additional energy removed over and above the IR illumination comes from shortwave energy from the sun which is absorbed not at the surface like IR but rather by impurities in the water at depths up to about 30 meters. The solar heated water is mixed downward mostly by waves. The mixing action of waves is not intuitive. The mixing excludes the topmost water to the depth of the wave height. Mixing begins below that depth. So the cool skin layer is not mixed downward is it simply lost to evaporation exposing the warmer water beneath. In this fashion the great majority of ocean heating and cooling takes place – shortwave heating from the sun and evaporative cooling from downwelling mid-infrared. Increase the downwelling infrared and you simply increase the evaporative cooling rate.

        Cool, huh?

        The atmosphere is then warmed by rain. The majority of the shortwave energy from the sun leaves the ocean in latent heat of vaporization. The vaporized water, which begins life at the same temperature as the cool skin layer, rises until adiabatic cooling reduces its temperature to the dewpoint. When it condenses the energy from the sun re-emerges as sensible heat and the atmosphere is warmed.

      • David Springer

        “heat is only able to travel through the skin layer by way of conduction”

        That is quite wrong. The skin layer is REMOVED by evaporation exposing warmer water beneath it. In the tropics the skin layer is removed about 40 times a day i.e. about 40 millimeters daily is lost to evaporation.

        WebHubTelescope and Chief Hydrologist are dumb and dumber. I’m not sure which is which but neither has a clue and just make stuff up as they go along.

      • David L. Hagen

        DocMartyn
        On terrestrial sources of sea level rise see:

        . We estimate the net contribution of terrestrial sources to be negative of order 0.15 (0.09) mm yr^-1 over 1970–1990 as a result of dam impoundment. However, we estimate this to become positive of order +0.25 (0.09) mm yr^-1 over 1990–2000 due to increased groundwater depletion and decreased dam building. We project the net terrestrial contribution to increase to +0.87 (0.14) mm yr^-1 by 2050. As a result, the cumulative contribution will become positive by 2015, offsetting dam impoundment (maximum 31  3.1 mm in 2010), and resulting in a total rise of +31 (11) mm by 2050.

        Citation: Wada, Y., L. P. H. van Beek,
        F. C. Sperna Weiland, B. F. Chao, Y.-H. Wu, and M. F. P. Bierkens
        (2012), Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion
        to sea-level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09402, doi:10.1029/
        2012GL051230.

      • Springer doesn’t realize that the Chief is applying largely the same argument that he is using — that infrared radiation doesn’t get absorbed by the ocean and instantaneously exits as latent evaporative heat.

        Yet Springer calls the Chief dumb. I’m glad not to be in their clown club.

        This is the general “non-clown” argument :
        1. The ocean gains energy from the sun, as particles and impurities in the water absorb the mainly visible light radiating down.
        2. As a gray-body, the ocean emits infrared radiation to create a steady-state energy balance with the incoming visible light. Evaporative cooling at the surface also plays a significant role in releasing heat to the atmosphere.
        3. Due to extra GHGs in the atmosphere, not as much infrared is emitted to outer-space as would occur without GHGs. Some fraction of the infrared returns to the surface. pssst … it’s called the greenhouse effect.
        4. The growing imbalance of infrared heat at the surface is propagated downwards due to the inexorable tug of entropy. Excess thermal energy in the form of heat tends to fill up the available state-space, and the ocean provides a rather large heat sink with all sorts of random motions of water to aid in the dispersion of the heat.
        5.The fruits of Springer’s Intelligent Design committee can use simple diffusion equations with quantified uncertainty to approximate a solution to this thermal transient:
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html
        6. This is absolutely no different an explanation than what James Hansen and others have offered over the years.

        Point out exactly where this explanation fails, and why the simple diffusion model is wrong in accurately reflecting the warming trends at each subsurface layer that both Balmaseda and Levitus demonstrate, and that Hansen had predicted.

        Springer, Just to remind you, for your answer, you will have to write it down, because the I.D. committee has yet to create a working version of telepathic communication.

      • David Springer

        @WHT

        “2. As a gray-body, the ocean emits infrared radiation to create a steady-state energy balance with the incoming visible light. Evaporative cooling at the surface also plays a significant role in releasing heat to the atmosphere.”

        Unfortunately for your thesis its properties as a water body dominate the heat budget not its properties as a gray body. Dry land may be treated as an approximate gray body. Wetted surfaces cannot. Write that down.

      • David Springer

        @WHT

        “3. Due to extra GHGs in the atmosphere, not as much infrared is emitted to outer-space as would occur without GHGs. Some fraction of the infrared returns to the surface. pssst … it’s called the greenhouse effect.”

        The greenhouse effect doesn’t work very well over the ocean because GHG is a radiant phenomenon and the ocean heat budget is primarily latent. You’ll continually be blindsided as you have been by the pause until you begin to understand that the greenhouse effect is primarily a land-based effect and the dryer the land the more the effect.

        This misunderstanding is why climate scientists and uninformed sycophants like you were blindsided by the pause. There’s a lot less greenhouse warming than they thought. About two thirds less. So the 1.5C-4.5C sensitivity range is actually 0.5C – 1.5C. Ultimately this range will be revealed by observation and it won’t be much longer. I figure around the year 2020 it will have become evident from observation. Anthropogenic CO2 will keep on rising and no warming will go along with it. That”s already happened for over a decade and is now forcing a reevaluation of the climate hypothesis that failed to predict it.

      • Hundreds of Watts/m2 of downwelling mid-infrared is completely absorbed in the top 10 micrometers of ocean surface. Think about what happens when you jam that much energy into a few cubic centimeters of water. I’ll give you three chances to say “vaporization”.

        Amazing that David errs again to present this argument as if he would not know that the same 10 micrometers emit more IR than they absorb. IR does not jam energy there, it takes energy off from that layer. The balancing heat comes from lower layers of ocean which get it from the solar SW that penetrates typically several meters and to lesser extent even hundreds of meters into the ocean. This energy brought to the skin by convective mixing and finally near surface also by conduction is the source that feeds both evaporation and other losses out from the skin.

      • And that is why only like 1/3 to 1/2 of the infrared out of the total forcing is actually going into the diffusive thermal impulse. It appears that 1/2 to 2/3 is not staying in the ocean and is instead returning as latent heat to the atmosphere.

        This is easy enough to calculate from the OHC slopes. Why don’t you do this yourself, Springer?

        “So the 1.5C-4.5C sensitivity range is actually 0.5C – 1.5C. “

        And Springer finds himself in a devious trick-box that he can’t escape from. The heat sink properties of the ocean are what appear to be reducing the sensitivity range, as due to the large heat capacity it does not contribute to a temperature change. Yet he wants to have it both ways and claim that no heat enters the ocean and it is all the latent heat which returns to the atmosphere. However, that path will warm the atmosphere to some extent.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        The balancing heat comes from lower layers of ocean which get it from the solar SW that penetrates typically several meters and to lesser extent even hundreds of meters into the ocean. This energy brought to the skin by convective mixing and finally near surface also by conduction is the source that feeds both evaporation and other losses out from the skin.

        webby –

        The heat in is in the shorter frequencies – and out through other means. How can you read this and still imagine stubbornly that the atmosphere warms the oceans directly by IR?

      • Chief, Have you ever considered that you should give up your pranking ways?

      • Chief Hydrologist

        You misunderstand the simple the concepts Pekka put forward and continue on your astonshingly silly way. C’est la vie.

      • David Springer

        DocMartyn | March 29, 2013 at 7:15 pm |

        “I can tell you that NO down welling atmospheric IR gets below 30m of the water. NONE.”

        You left out a u. None gets below 30um (micrometers). NONE. Water is quite opaque to mid-infrared. It’s completely absorbed in the first few micrometers. Webby mentioned Kirchoff’s Law a while back saying a good absorber is a good emitter. Well sir, he’s right about the law but wrong about what happens. The ocean absorbs that IR in a surface film thinner than a human hair and immediately emits it because it emits as good as it absorbs! But it doesn’t emit downward because it can’t. Water is perfectly opaque to it. It emits it back upward from whence it came. Plus it emits a little bit more because the water is slightly warmer than the air. Most of the energy transferred from ocean to atmosphere, by close to 3:1 margin, is latent (insensible) heat of vaporization which doesn’t warm the air until it condenses.

        The ONLY source of heating for the ocean is shortwave from the sun. Zero net energy is transferred from air to water and in the case of the ocean greenhouse gases do very little to slow down heat loss because greenhouse warming is a radiative phenomenon and ocean cooling is primarily NOT by radiation. In other words you can’t slow down radiative cooling unless there is radiative cooling TO slow down and the ocean simply doesn’t cool much by either radiation or conduction. Evaporation is the big cooling Kahuna.

        Over dry land it’s a different story because rocks don’t evaporate in response to illumination by mid-infrared the primary way dry rocks cool is emission of radiation. Rocks are all about radiative heating and cooling. Rocks are effectively insulated to heat loss by greenhouse gases while heating of same by the sun isn’t impeded by greenhouse gases. Wet surfaces are not insulated in the same fashion so long as water is free to evaporate. That’s why humans have sweat glands not radiator fins, by the way. Evaporative cooling is far more efficient than radiative cooling.

      • What I find humorous about this discussion is how the clowns are beating each other over the head. In particular, Springer is going after the Chief for advocating exactly the same argument that he is proposing.

        What clown schools did you all go to? Lots of teamwork involved and that requires study and practice.

      • Wait’ll they’re in harness together.
        =====

      • kim | March 31, 2013 at 12:37 pm |

        Wait’ll they’re in harness together.

        Like a clown car?

      • Chief Hydrologist

        You will find that springer indulges in climate trivialities while abusing everyone. He is an equal opportunty boor. Webby can’t even get the trivialities right. Bart ignores the trivialities and aims for the unintelligible. In harness in clown cars? Wtf.

      • Chief Springer, Both of you clowns refuse to admit that infrared radiation can enter the surface and diffuse downward.

        Where has the excess OHC come from, if not through this path?

        Evaporative cooling can’t raise the heat content of the oceans.

        Again, where is the excess heat coming from?

        Losing heat less slowly, as an explanation, doesn’t count, as this is just a mirror view.

        Chief will say decrease in clouds, but what causes that?

      • Heh, Chief, that looks like of the three, you’d choose your ol’ pal Dave the Cowpoke.
        ==============================

      • web, I’d suggest you think very carefully about your assertions – before you make an even bigger fool of yourself

      • “phatboy | March 31, 2013 at 5:07 pm |

        web, I’d suggest you think very carefully about your assertions – before you make an even bigger fool of yourself”

        I already kicked you around the block when you made this assertion

        ” phatboy | March 29, 2013 at 8:10 pm |

        Since when is IR absorbed by the oceans? Water is opaque to IR.”

        It is opaque because it is absorbed.
        That was two statements that you could not even make consistent.

        I will make a silly assertion phatbot: that you are paid by someone to comment here. Doesn’t matter if what you write is right or wrong, as long as you contribute to the FUD. Prove me wrong. And I need direct evidence according to the Cripwell Criteria. Only directly measurable criteria that you aren’t being paid. Tax records will suffice.

      • You know, webbie, I find it quaintly amusing how you think that the ‘heat’ from IR is diffused through the ocean, when in fact the ocean surface is emitting far more IR than it absorbs.
        ALL – every single tiny femtojoule of heat content in the ocean – excess or otherwise – enters the ocean by way of SW radiation.
        Write that down.

      • And, btw, I haven’t received my cheque for this year yet, and I’m short of money – who do I speak to?

      • David Springer

        WebHubTelescope | March 31, 2013 at 4:58 pm |

        “Chief Springer, Both of you clowns refuse to admit that infrared radiation can enter the surface and diffuse downward.”

        The skin layer is colder than the water below it. Please explain how heat diffuses from colder to warmer. ROFLMAO And you call me the clown. That’s rich.

        “Where has the excess OHC come from, if not through this path?”

        One or more of sea ice loss, runoff from rivers, slowdown of trade winds, slowdown of oceanic conveyor belt, changes in clouds.

        “Chief will say decrease in clouds, but what causes that?”

        Chief might be right and he’d be in agreement with Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer. What causes it? I’ll quote Lindzen:

        … the critics claim that I asserted that the water vapor feedback may be negative. This may well be the case, but that is not what I have been suggesting. Rather, we find that the total longwave feedback (to which the water vapor feedback is one contributor – thin upper level cirrus are another, and the two are so intrinsically dependent that ignorance of the latter leads to ignorance of the former) is negative, and unambiguously so (that is to say, it was identified clearly even at zero lag). This has actually been confirmed by Trenberth and Fasullo (2009) who find in their analysis that feedbacks are primarily shortwave feedbacks.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iris_hypothesis

        Thanks for asking.

    • Chief Hydrologist

      ‘Delay of CO2 warming by the ocean can be illustrated with a “box diffusion”
      model (24), in which heat is stirred instantly through the mixed layer and diffused into the thermocline with diffusion coefficient k. Observed oceanic penetration by inert chemical tracers suggests that k is of order 1 square centimeter per second (2, 3, 24). The warming calculated with the onedimensional model for the CO2 increase from 1880 to 1980 (25) is 0.5°C if ocean heat capacity is neglected (Fig. 1). The heat capacity of just the mixed layer reduces this to O.4°C, a direct effect of the mixed layer’s 6-year thermal response time. Diffusion into the thermocline further reduces the warming to 0.25°C for k = 1 cm2 sec-‘, an indirect effect of the mixed layer’s 6-year efolding time, which permits substantial exchange with the thermocline.’ Jams Hansen 1981 paper

      The ‘box diffussion’ model had a purpose back at the very beginning of satellite observation – that is in partitioning heat between the oceans and atmosphere. It is a black box model – you must realise that it isn’t physically realistic in any sense? 30 years later you are still messing about with this gossly simple model is a way that explains not even the partitioning of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean – and in a way ignores the information content of the original ocean heat data in ways that are grossly physically unrealistic. You derive a simplified ocean heat content function by fitting a curve to ocean heat content. Do you see the pointlessness in this? Obviously not.

      As I show in the Trenberth quote elsewhere – the missing heat was seen in CERES but didn’t show up in the 0-700m ocean heat content. Assuming a constant rate of heat diffussion from the atmosphere to the oceans in a black box model changes nothing of this and means very litle indeed. .

      • Chief, Basic physics doesn’t change just because you want it to.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        I am sure ot doesn’t don’t webby. But what you are talking about is a black box and not fundamental physics. That distinction needs to be made.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Ah…I am sure it doesn’t webby…

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        Chief Hydrologist, you too perhaps should familiarize yourself with the theoretical and observational references that were supplied in response to DocMartyn’s similar question.

        Perhaps this video of internal waves may prove instructive too … these internal waves are ubiquitous in all oceans.

        Best wishes, and keep learning, Chief!

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • ” But what you are talking about is a black box and not fundamental physics.”

        Wow, I didn’t know continuum physics is a black box.

        Isn’t it weirdly coincidental that I can create a model with a single parameter, the effective diffusion coefficient, which is already known BTW, and determine the scaling of the thermal forcing function while retaining the shape of the OHC thermal response? Isn’t it strange that it substantiates what James Hansen said in 1981?

        Isn’t conventional physics a wonderful thing Chief?

      • Chief Hydrologist

        This is how the physics of ocean warmng under an enhanced greenhouse effect works. – http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=939

        The thermal gradient – or net IR up – at the ‘skin layer’ layer is less and the loss of thermal energy from the ocean declines. Despite downward IR flux – there is a net loss of energy in the IR band that occurs in the top microns of the ocean. The sun warms the oceans and the oceans warm the atmosphere by emitting energy from the skin layer – regardless of the quantum of ‘back radiation’ IR radiation is always net upward. These simple physics are essential to understanding ocean warming and cooling.

        Webby’s so called fundamental physics are profoundly unphysical relying only on a concept of ‘effective diffusion’ from the atmosphere to the oceans. But heating proceeds from the sun to the oceans to the atmosphere and back out to space. Webby’s exercise is as I said a trivial black box exercise in fitting a curve to an approximation of data. It is black box because the energy dynamics do not involve direct warmng of the oceans by ‘back radiation’ – and so the model is not physcally realistc. It is trivial because – even in the remote chance that the math wasexemplary – it produces a simplified curve that loses much of the information in the data. It tells you less than you already know.

        That heat is distribued around the oceans by turbulent eddies of one sort or another is a different question. One that I believe that I have addressed elsewhere and in the context of both ocean and radiant flux at toa data. And even included my own youtube video of a 150km wide real eddy. And suggested a third mechanism for deep ocean mixing – eddy formation over uneven seabeds. We are well aware that mixing below the ‘mixed layer’ occurs and that there is a balance between mixing and bouyancy of warmer water.

        Let me reiterate – we will assume that the data from ARGO and CERES is correct and the ‘missing energy’ that Trenberth saw in CERES shows up in the ARGO data to 1500m or 2000m.. This is quite different to the old assumption that most heat would show up in the top 700m – it didn’t hence was missing. Simple enough?

        Here again is CERES with trend lines and pretty colours. It shows that most change was in the SW.

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/CERES-BAMS-2008-with-trend-lines1.gif.html?sort=3&o=80

      • If you heat up a thermally isolated large volume of water on one side, eventually the entirety of the volume will heat up. The analysis I did here
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html
        works out the thermal transient for various layers, with a diffusion coefficient that agrees with Hansen’s value from 1981, and a value estimated by Munk from 1966. If there is a more recent value, it would be interesting to see that as well.

        I suppose it is possible that the entirety of the data set is contrived, and contrived to match the diffusive transients that would result from a basic model with a forcing function that accurately matches the GHG forcing function.

        I kind of doubt that it is contrived.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        The oceans are warm enough to stay liquid for the most part – which is a great deal of heat.

        I didn’t say it was contrived – not even that it can’t be done – just that it was black box and trivial. The physics don’t work like that and information that is quite interesting in the data is lost in the global diffusion constant.

      • ” The physics don’t work like that “

        Evidently, not to a civil engineer. That’s why they became civs. Look it up in the local codes, and all that.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        ‘Warming on sunshine

        Sunlight penetrating the surface of the oceans is responsible for warming of the surface layers. Once heated, the ocean surface becomes warmer than the atmosphere above, and because of this heat flows from the warm ocean to the cool atmosphere above…

        The ‘cool skin’ layer

        The rate of flow of heat out of the ocean is determined by the temperature gradient in the ‘cool skin layer’, which resides within the thin viscous surface layer of ocean that is in contact with the atmosphere. It’s so named because it is the interface where ocean heat is lost to the atmosphere, and therefore becomes cooler than the water immediately below. Despite being only 0.1 to 1mm thick on average, this skin layer is the major player in the long-term warming of the oceans.

        Curious behavior in the cool skin layer

        The cool skin behaves quite differently to the water below, because it is the boundary where the ocean and air meet, and therefore turbulence (the transfer of energy/heat via large-scale motion) falls away as it approaches this boundary. No longer free to jiggle around and transfer heat via this large scale motion, water molecules in the layer are forced together and heat is only able to travel through the skin layer by way of conduction. With conduction the steepness of the temperature gradient is critical to the rate of heat transfer.

        Greenhouse gas-induced warming of the ocean

        Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, trap heat in the atmosphere and direct part of this back toward the surface. This heat cannot penetrate into the ocean itself, but it does warm the cool skin layer, and the level of this warming ultimately controls the temperature gradient in the layer.

        Increased warming of the cool skin layer (via increased greenhouse gases) lowers its temperature gradient (that is the temperature difference between the top and bottom of the layer), and this reduces the rate at which heat flows out of the ocean to the atmosphere. One way to think about this is to compare the gradient (steepness) of a flowing river – water flows faster the steeper the river becomes, but slows as the steepness decreases.

        The same concept applies to the cool skin layer – warm the top of the layer and the gradient across it decreases, therefore reducing heat flowing out of the ocean.

        The ever-present effect of the cool skin layer

        An important point not be be glossed over here, is that changing the temperature gradient in the cool skin layer by way of greenhouse gas warming is a worldwide phenomenon. Once the gradient has changed, all heat leaving the ocean thereafter has to negotiate its way through the layer. With the gradient lowered, the ocean is able to steal away a little bit more from heat headed for the atmosphere. It is in this ever-present mechanism that oceans are able to undergo long-term warming (or cooling).’ scepticalscience

        It is not quite right – but much more right than you. The cool skin is not permanent because waves are caused by friction of the wind on water. This imparts momentum and causes the water to rotate – like a roller – and this transmits the energy of the wave forward. So the surface is constantly being turbulently mixed to depth. As warm water comes to the suface it again loses IR in the top 100 microns or so. It is a dynamic and ongoing process.

        See this is what civil engineers study – waves, wind and water. Much more fun than being an electrician.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Oh – and energy – quite a lot – is lost by evaporation as well.

  15. Cees de Valk

    For a number of reasons, reanalysis of weather is so much easier by comparison. So far, the results of data-assimilative ocean modelling are not impressive.

  16. Stupid question, probably, but how does the heat get down to the deep ocean without any warming in the atmosphere or the top layers of ocean?

    • Jurij

      I’m keeping quiet and watching the tv whilst waiting for someone to ask that basic question. Beats me but no doubt Fan will be along shortly with a reference to a Hansen paper that fully explains this conundrum.
      Tonyb

      • Chief Hydrologist

        And oh – it is 9.00am here and my associate has gone away for the weekend. So I am still in bed warching Thunderbirds are Go and Scooby Doo. Shall I go out for breakfast and a paper? So many decisions.

      • No, go to a cafe that provides newspapers for its customers to read and buy just the breakfast not a paper. With the saved cash make a donation to the very worthy ‘help find the missing heat fund’
        Tonyb

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Kevin (shirley it ain’t decadal) Trenberth can look forward to a three dollar bill.

    • Chief Hydrologist

      Assume the data is correct –

      http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/vonSchuckmann-OHC.gif.html?sort=3&o=74#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/vonSchuckmann-OHC.gif.html?sort=3&o=74&_suid=136459674501407309977586127981

      – and try to explain it. CERES suggests an increase in SW in the period with less cloud. So the data agrees – the oceans should be warming in the period. So if the top 700m is not warming you have to assume changes in ocean circulation changing the partitioning of heat between the mixed layer and the deep ocean. Judith mentioned 2 possible mechanisms and I suggested a third.

      If you assume that the data is right.

    • Jurij,

      An excellent question.

      In the words of the old Doris Day song – “It’s Magic”!

      Or, in my own words – “It’s Preposterous!”

      Missing heat? If it wasn’t there before, it can’t be missing now.

      Reminds of a ditty I probably disremember. It goes as follows: –

      “Yesterday upon the stair,
      I saw a man who wasn’t there.
      He wasn’t there again today.
      My God, I wish he’d go away!”

      Missing man, missing heat, villages missing their idiots.

      Live well and prosper.

      Mike Flynn.

      • Sometimes in crime stories like Edgar Allan Poe’s
        ‘The Purloined Letter,’ that which is missing turns out
        ter be a red herring event and not actually missing
        at all but in the obvious place …like space..

    • Steven Mosher

      elevators. filled with unicorns.

    • “Stupid question, probably, but how does the heat get down to the deep ocean without any warming in the atmosphere or the top layers of ocean?”

      The premise is wrong. The atmosphere has warmed, and so have the upper layers. Just look at Fig 1. not only has a lot of heat been added to the top layers, but if you divide by depth (300m. 700m etc) as a rough volume estimate, the temperature rise of the upper layers is greater, diminishing as you go down.

      • Actually your assumption is incorrect,the observed subsurface warming in mid to high Lats in the SH and the SOi s a result of wind forced mixing ie well stirred not shaken.The signature the anti-correlation is a forced response to CFC eg chapter 4

        “Since we can attribute much of the poleward shift in the surface wind stress to ozone forcing (Gillett and Thompson, 2003; Cai and Cowan, 2007; Son et al., 2009b; Fogt et al., 2009), we can infer that ozone forcing in the 1970–2000 period contributes to the observed subsurface
        warming in the Southern Ocean. That is, the stratospheric ozone-induced change in the Southern Ocean opposes the effects of global warming of the Earth’s surface; greenhouse gas forcing warms the ocean surface and increases high latitude precipitation, which stratifies the ocean surface and thereby reduces oceanic mixing of heat”

        http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2010/chapters/chapter4.pdf

      • Even though measurements clearly show the atmosphere and upper ocean have not warmed of late, Nick Stokes simply denies this … ??

        (he was trying to avoid having to explain how the ‘missing’ heat leapfrogs undetected straight down to the deep ocean)

      • Tomcat,
        Did you even look at the evidence I cited right here? Fig 1 of this post shows heat accumulating at all levels.

      • ” Tomcat | March 30, 2013 at 2:59 am |

        “… upper ocean have not warmed of late”

        Like Nick Stokes said, Tomcat can’t even read a simple graph.

        Alternatively, check this figure
        http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

        Let Tomcat now explain what “upper ocean” means to him.

      • maksimovich

        There is also this paper by Large and Yeager from 2012 that looked at ocean warming with respect to changes in heat flux and came to a similar conclusion as you.

        If you can get passed the paywall it’ll tell you that it’s a slow down in the release of energy rather than an accumulation of extra energy that is leading to ocean warming. Their best guess is greater stratification.

        http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1?journalCode=clim

    • jurij | March 29, 2013 at 6:26 pm | Stupid question, probably, but how does the heat get down to the deep ocean without any warming in the atmosphere or the top layers of ocean?

      Injected by a 700 metre long hypodermic syringe wielded by SupermoleculeCO2 pumping in his trapped heat.

      Or, same way clouds stop “SW” reaching the surface by radiating it away thereby cooling the surface but “SW” reaching the ocean heats the water.

      Sarc off.

      Carbon Dioxide cannot trap heat. It releases heat practically instantly, see heat capacity.
      Water is transparent to visible light, it cannot heat the ocean.

  17. It’s remarkable how the major discrepancies between observations and theoretical models in climate science all seem to disappear down a rabbit-hole where reliable meaurements are well-nigh non-existent. In the case of “missing heat” it’s in deepest oceans; in the case of largely absent rural station records it’s in the deep “homogenizations.” It’s getting all too deep!

    • With the foi2009.pdf (CRUgate) disclosures we all saw behind the wizard’s green curtain. We all saw the wild machinations going on in academia to hide the decline and the truth and the manufacture lies that politicians on the Left like Al Gore would find useful to deceive the people.

    • Not real John, in Climate Science one starts from conclusion and works ones way back to the title. The data is manipulated until the ‘correct’ line-shape is arrived at and then the methodology is justified.

      • Many people do their income taxes that way

      • Doc,
        Do you really think it is that fraudulent? Could it be overconfidence in the models and searching for justifications in complicated math?

        Seems unlikely that all these scientists would support that.
        I can accept a few like Hansen and Mann but most seem more likely to be searching for esoteric ways to support the consensus and thus funding.
        Scott

      • Scott, when you get to the stage of changing the past because the present isn’t warming up quickly enough, then the jig is pretty much up.
        The first people who break from the pack will survive and the others will get RICO’ed.

      • “Not real John, in Climate Science one starts from conclusion and works ones way back to the title. The data is manipulated until the ‘correct’ line-shape is arrived at and then the methodology is justified.”

        So how do you explain how I took one parameter, an effective diffusivity that Hansen used, and a scaling factor to reproduce the OHC increase?
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html

        This is an ideal way for physics to work. You take what you learned in undergraduate physics and use that knowledge to characterize and understand what you are looking at.

      • Wag, your whole premise is false. Before you start any analysis, you must formulate you question. Simple questions are the best, so before asking something along the lines of ‘What will an extra-natural level of X have on Y?” ask “What is the nature of X?”

        The question I want to have answered is
        “Why are the oceans not in a thermodynamic equilibrium?{

        I don’t give a damn what the rate of heat transport is. I want to know what the magnitude of the various rates are.
        Apply your rate and I find in less than a few hundred years the oceans are all at the same war temperature, except the very top which responds to the day/nigh cycle.
        We all know that heat can get from the top to the bottom. Easy Peasy. However, we know ‘cold’ get to the bottom too, and in a race ‘cold’ beats warm. from 4km to about 500m there is only cold, so there is a hell of a lot more cold going in than warm going in.
        We can all explain, with easy, how we can move heat, like I say, moving cold is much more tricky.

  18. Maybe if we turn on all of the the incandescent light bulbs in America we will see where all of the missing heat went:

    While such a “missing heat” explanation for a lack of recent warming [i.e., Trenberth’s argument that despite the lack of global warming we just cannot find the heat yet] is theoretically possible, I find it rather unsatisfying basing an unwavering belief in eventual catastrophic global warming on a deep-ocean mechanism so weak we can’t even measure it [i.e., keeping the AGW hoax alive depends solely now on the speculation that in the coldest deep oceans on the planet the waters there must actually be warmer than they should be by an unmeasurable thousandths of a degree]…

    If, say, 50% of the warming in the last 50 to 100 years has been natural, then this profoundly impacts our projections of human-caused warming in the future, slashing them by about 50%.

    ~Dr. Roy Spencer, 14 December 2012 (http://www.drroyspencer.com/)

  19. “Well, there was climate shift associated with a massive reorganization of circulation patterns in the Pacific. ”

    Judith you make this comment. Do you know any references to describe this shift?

  20. “Ocean RE-analysis uses the same version of an ocean model to assimilate cleaned up historical ocean observations into a homogeneous analysis of historical ocean states.”

    Am I reading this wrong, or has the “missing heat” been “found” in model generated pseudo data? And am I wrong in thinking these models were all created and “adjusted” by “climate scientists” who just knew the missing heat had to be somewhere?

    OK, next time I lose my keys, I’ll just call them to construct a nifty key model, and presto! they should be able to tell me where my keys are.

    Data? We don’t need no stinkin’ data!

    • Gary, you are correct, the “missing heat” been “found” in model generated pseudo data. Found by the man who was embarrassed about losing the heat in the first place.

  21. Jurij and TonyB, beats me to.
    In theory, has to be vertical current circulation (convection). Radiation isn’t an explanation in water, and direct conduction is obviated by the definite ocean thermocline. The darn thermocline physics problem is that warmer water is less dense, so floats on top. Fish like that a lot.
    Now, we might speculate about melting arctic ice. But fresh water is less dense than salt water, so it floats on top also. Fresh water wells in south Florida, and the Everglades, exist because of that useful ‘sandbar’ fact.
    If there were more sea ice (which exudes salt and is mostly freshwater), then the seawater below would become saltier, so heavier, and might sink. Indeed this does happen to create the arctic halocline circulation. But…there has been less Arctic sea ice, so this should slow rather than increase that circulation since 2000, the opposite of what Trenberth asserts. Darn physics anyway.
    Of course, the other explanation is that there is no ‘missing heat’ outside the uncertainty of admittedly flawed models. The principle of Occam’s Razor suggests this is the most likely explanation. Trenberth is probably just wrong. Both the transient and equilibrium sensitivities to CO2 are overstated, because the positive water vapor feedback is overstated (precipitation, adaptive iris, declining UTrH) and the cloud feedback is likely negative rather than positive. As posted here last year. And in the climate chapter of my ebook on Arts of Truth.
    Now, that does not tie it all together. But as our host has posted, splicing limited data into computer models to produce a dubious baseline is not a proof. And, if you read the first paper on this reanalysis, it is stunning how bad the models were before corrected by data. Which hardly suggests they are good now.
    I am working on an essay for the next book which might become a post if permitted by our gracious hostess, that lays all this out with pictures.
    Regards

    • Rud, it is the formation of the sea ice the excludes the salt. Greater sea ice annual formation would increase the deepest water portion of the THC, but that would be at a nearly fixed temperature and density in the Antarctic with more variation in the Arctic. The time lags are incredibly long though, most of the deep ocean mixing is wind driven in the Antarctic convergence zone, which is cooling implying more heat uptake, but that is related to SO variations not CO2 forcing, at least not directly. Toggweiler and the GFDL have several good papers on the more realistic sources of natural variability.

      There is also a neat fresh/salt water effect in the NH. Since there is more fresh water in general, wind mixing changes the salinity and drops the freezing point. That is supposed to be part of the SSW event impact like this year when high salinity North Atlantic water is mixed more completely with the melt water surface lens. More of the Arctic ice formed at a lower temperature this year.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Of course – one could always assume that the CERES and ARGO data are approximately correct and that mixing between the mixed layer and below occurs by turbulent eddies both from above and below.

        Evaporation occurs as water moves northwards creating the bulk of the salt dense surface in the Arctic. This is the blk of the saline effect – and the water sinks as it becomes both saline and cold enough. The latter through loss of thermal energy in high latitudes.

        Fresh water doesn’t exist as lens in open water – turbulence is far too great. It exists in groundwater precisely because of the lack of mixing.

        And give it up FOMBS – learn to communicate reasonably or you will continue to be a marginal annoyance at best.

      • Chief, the CERES and ARGO data are great but ARGO coverage is 60N to 60S. There is still a bit of uncertainty at the poles that can contribute to missing things.

      • “Fresh water doesn’t exist as lens in open water – turbulence is far too great. It exists in groundwater precisely because of the lack of mixing.”

        True, most of the fresh water lens effect is on and near the sea ice. When you have events like the major Arctic cyclones that break up the ice and mix the fresh with salt, it is like hitting a reset switch for colder temperatures.

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      Rud Istvan, you too perhaps should familiarize yourself with the references supplied to Chief Hydrologist and DocMartyn

      It would be regrettable if you were to write another book in ignorance of this basic science, eh Rud Istvan? Please take appropriate measures to ensure this doesn’t happen!

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Needless to say, Fan of More BS doesn’t actually discus the basic physics Rud is allegedly unaware of. Gullible nitwit that he remains, he instead religiously follows the go-away-and-read-xyz-until-you-agree-with-me school of BS. That’s the thing about gullible nitwits – they think others are as fickle and devout as they are.

      • You are a complete moron, not only do you not understand the answer, you don’t understand the question.

      • Smells like team spirit.
        ===========

      • John Carpenter

        I feel stupid, and contagious
        Here we are now, entertain us

      • Generalissimo Skippy

        Some people call me the space cowboy, yeah
        Some call me the gangster of love
        Some people call me Maurice
        ‘Cause I speak of the pompitous of love

        THE JOKER – 40 years young at midnight

  22. A fan of *MORE* discourse

    Judith Curry dubiously claims  “The big issue is whether we can infer reliable global trends from the reanalysis, owing to changes in the observing system (not just for the ocean, but for the surface fluxes derived from atmospheric reanalyses), and uncertainties in the overall methodology.”

    If we assign a strict binary sense to Dr. Curry’s (undefined?) usage of the word “reliable” … such that “reliable” in effect means “utterly certain” … then her assertion makes no sense for any observational scientific discipline (much less climate change!). Therefore, let us assign a quantitative sense to that word.

    A Better-Posed Question  Does the global-trend reanalysis appreciably increase/decrease the value of P_{\text{AGW}} in the postulate: James Hansen’s 1981 climate-change worldview is substantially correct with probability P_{\text{AGW}}.

    A Reasonable Answer  Regardless of one’s prior estimate of P_{\text{AGW}}, the evidence presented by Trenberth and collaborators substantially increases that value.

    Corollary  Although some people still assert P_{\text{AGW}} = 0, this group no longer includes an appreciable proportion of rational scientists, in consequence of multiple, continuing, independent affirmations like the Trenbarth analysis.

    Conclusion  The mainly favorable appreciation of scientists for the Trenbarth analysis is well-merited, and conversely, the article’s vigorous condemnation by climate-change denialists also is predictable!

    \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

    • Trenberth’s Missing Heat
      weltanshauung – ‘Au fond fait chaud.’
      Science – ‘Il fait froid.’

      Belinda et al.

    • Fan,

      When I board an aircraft, I do so on the assumption that it will deliver me to my destination reliably. I am “utterly certain” that it will do so. So far, my assumption has been proven to be reliable. My assumption (or “scenario”, to use WarmSpeak), has utility for me.

      The Warmist cult of the Edifice of Post Normal Scientism, on the other hand, has produced precisely nothing (that’s zilch, nada, zero, indistinguishable from nought), of utility to me. Their assumptions so far have demonstrated a complete disconnect from the reality that I experience.

      As a Warmist, you will no doubt berate me with advanced mathematical models, to inform me how stupid I am. I’m still alive, and I will be flying halfway around the world again, soonish.

      Whose advice should I follow? Yours, and torment myself endlessly about possibilities, or mine? How would following the Warmist philosophy benefit me? I prefer happiness to misery, as would any sane, rational, person.

      Please continue to worry and be miserable on my behalf. I can’t be bothered. You obviously enjoy it.

      Live well and prosper.

      Mike Flynn.

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      ozzieostrich reasons  “When I  board an aircraft  smoke a cigarette, I do so on the assumption that it will  deliver me to my destination reliably  not kill me slowly with long cancer. So far, my assumption has been proven to be reliable. “

      Your login name “ostrich” is well-chosen, Ozzie-Ostrich!

      Still, you might perhaps place greater weight on longer-term moral consequences … to yourself … and to others … and to future generations?

      Why not reflect more seriously about these matters, Ozzie-Ostrich?

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Fan,

        I’m not sure what “long cancer” is, even less sure why you mention it.

        I can see that you have adopted the Warmist practice of crossing out words you do not like, and substituting your own. Does this make you happy? I can’t think off any other logical reason for denying reality.

        In any case, please excuse me if I choose to disregard your admonitions in regard to how I should think, and what weight I should assign to possible outcomes.

        As I stated before, I am grateful that I have you to worry and fulminate on my behalf. Keep it up! If you can manage to worry twice as hard, for example, you will have lifted the burden from another such as myself.

        Let me know how hard you can worry about climate, and I will advise others. In the meantime,

        Live well and prosper,

        Mike Flynn – (I don’t know why Ozzieostrich appears. WordPress or something. No matter, it’s still me.).

      • eh Fan, in that video of internal waves you should check their amplitude. Answer- no more than 100m. Stop posting nonsense toomler.

      • k scott denison

        Fan, what percentage of smokers do you think get lung cancer? Hint: it’s less than 25 percent. So while smokers may have a higher risk, there isn’t a 1:1 correlation. Probably because the human body is a tad more complex than inhale and you’ll get lung cancer.

        Yet you quote this, just like you do that CO2 will cause CAGW, as if it were a direct, 1:1 correlation. Perhaps complex systems aren’t easily explained with simple correlations.

    • FOMBS > The mainly favorable appreciation of scientists for the Trenbarth analysis

      Institutionally wedded as they are a pre-conclusion that favors their paymaster – ie CAGW- this is hardly a surprise. These are the same “scientists” that to this day find no fault with bolstering their “conclusion” with tricks like hiding data etc etc.

  23. This may be a rather ignorant question. If a certain amount of heat has been sequestered in to ocean depths, would not that transfer of heat been somehow identified by the Argo system as it made its way downward regardless of the method of transfer?
    Anyone?

    • DarrylB,

      Not if it is Special Invisible Hidden Magical Warmist Fudge Factor Heat.

      I understand the initial Argo data had to be subjected to remedial massage, as it insisted on cooling rather than warming.

      On a practical note, depending on the spells cast by the Chief Warmist to banish the Heat to the depths of the ocean, it may have wound up away from the Argo buoys.

      So, my answer is “not necessarily”.

      Live ell and prosper,

      Mike Flynn.

    • Nope, DarrylB, not ignorant at all. Several years ago, at Pielke Pere’s blog, he and Josh Willis tried to explain that to an incredulous Kevin Trenberth. It was a very instructive dialogue.
      ===================

      • Don’t mistake me. It was Kevin not believing that the Argo data precluded the transport of heat to the depths. This is why last year’s paper proposing heat descending in mysterious places was necessary. That didn’t fly very well, so Kevin’s got a little more imaginative with this.

        About time to feel sorry for him, obsessed as he is.
        ======================

      • Your interpretations of the Trenberth-Willis-Pielke Sr exchange are just plain weird.

      • The missing heat is by now some way past Alpha Centauri…

      • I have always suspected that some of the missing heat went into outer space. Trenberth, the team, whatever, have always said outer space is a place it might have gone. It is either in the earth system or in outer space. Looking for it in outer space is problematic, but I would be glad to build a rocket and send Kim into outer space to look for it.

        So to figure out where it is, it is logical to look in the most likely place, which is the oceans.

        So like any scientist would, Trenberth looks in the oceans. If it’s not there, then he will know the vast majority of it went to outer space.

      • Captain Stormfield I might find, but the missing heat outraces my rockets.
        ==============

    • I think it is more cold water coming up rather than warm water going down. The upwelling is in narrow coastal areas and harder to detect, but its strengthening would have the effect of a seeming loss of surface heat.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        The biggest areas of upwelling occur over an immense area of the Pacific. However, this still doesn’t change the heat content of the surface 300m even. The warm water is still at the surface simply – in the case of ENSO – piled up against Australia and Indonesia.

      • Cooler surface water loses less heat to the atmosphere or radiation, so just having a thin large area of cooler surface water makes a big difference to the ocean heat content by restricting its loss of energy. We see the opposite with El Ninos where the increased loss of energy from the warm surface causes the heat content to decrease as in 1998.

      • Exactly, a warm El Nino surface leads both to observed radiative loss and observed ocean heat content reduction. The diagram proves the point.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        I think you are imagining things. The graph shows an increase in net ERBS – more energy entering the system all as a result of cloud radiative forcing and ocean temp increasing in the 1998 El Nino.

        ‘The drop in the global ocean heat storage in the later part of 1998 is associated with cooling of the global ocean after the rapid warming of the ocean during the 1997–98 El Niño event (Willis et al. 2004).’

        http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Wong_ERBEreanalysis.pdf

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Net you need to remember is always warming up convention.

      • The net radiative forcing decreased a lot as El Nino cooled off, consistent with a tendency towards more cooling to space. Interestingly it never went net negative, which is net radiative cooling. It seems there is another background radiative forcing that offsets the zero point. Wonder what that could be?

      • Chief Hydrologist

        The heat peaked in the El Nino and then cooled in the subsequent La Nina. The interesting thing is that the ERBS net change drives changes in OHC very quickly.

        The zero point is arbitrary – it is not a transition between warming and cooling which depends in fact on the incoming radiation. It is not even close to the idea of radiatiive balance.

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      DarylB, you have asked a very good question. Vertical heat transport in the ocean is dominated by microstructure in temperature and salinity, which (regrettably) the ARGO sensors are not optimized to resolve.

      LOL … apparently the scientific understanding of this forum’s denialists isn’t optimized to resolve microstructure transport phenomena either!

      Anyway, this microstructure is continuously created by the transformation of internal waves by shear, and continuously destroyed by molecular diffusion, and the balance between these two processes (which AFAICT are not well-resolved by ARGO) very largely determines the rate vertical transport of salt and heat in the ocean.

      Conclusion  ARGO’s sensors directly and accurately measure the amount of heat in ocean, but do not (directly) measure how fast that heat is vertically transported.

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Fan, I feel as if you have thrown a red herring. The SPURS study you referred to has as its objective- determining how salinity effects the oceanic water cycle and ocean circulation. The study will, I believe, prove to be valuable; however, it is regional and very recent.
        In the end the ‘big picture’ may be a composite of microstructures.

        The goal, of course, is to achieve a very accurate look at the big picture, which you have stated (in terms of vertical heat transfer) the argo sensors are ill equipped to measure.

        You stated that the argo system (there about 3,000 floats worldwide) accurately measures heat content and I am sure you would agree that is the result of numerous, precise temperature measurements, at various depths.

        You also stated that they do not (directly) measure how fast that heat is vertically transported.

        My question then is, Why can’t the elementary step of measuring temperatures at various depths over extended periods of time not be used to measure rate of vertical heat movement??

      • Yep, red herring. Find the Pielke, Willis, Trenberth exchange.
        =====================

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        DarrylB asks: “Why can’t the elementary step of measuring temperatures at various depths over extended periods of time not be used to measure rate of vertical heat movement?? …”

        DarrylB, you have asked a question that some rather subtle physics associated to it … physics that (at least some) skeptics here on Climate Etc perhaps need to appreciate more fully.

        It commonly happens in transport phenomena that the effective diffusive transport (of heat, salt, momentum, charge, etc) is very much larger than molecular-scale statistical dynamical considerations would indicate. As a concrete example, the observed transport of heat in the ocean is characterized by a effective transport coefficient of order 1 cm^2/s, which is many orders of magnitude larger than purely molecular physics can explain!

        Commonly such anomalous transport is associated to microscale turbulent mixing processes, which in the ocean originates naturally, via the nonlinear interaction of (ubiquitous) shear flows with (ubiquitous) internal gravity waves. Mixing turbulence is both space-limited and time-limited within the oceanic water column … hence these turbulent mixing processes are very challenging to sample by sensors that (like the ARGO floats) are just “passing through.”

        In effect, there is an engineering constraint: (a) high accuracy, (b) large spatial span, (c) fine space-resolution, (d) fine time-resolution … pick any two. The ARGO floats optimize (a) and (b), thus perform poorly at (c) and (d)

        For further discussion of this (exceedingly rich!) aspect of heat-transport dynamics, please allow me to commend to you the (many!) references in the above-mentioned Baumert survey Turbulent mixing driven by mean-flow shear and internal gravity waves in oceans and atmospheres

        Thank you for this perspicacious followup-question, DarrylB!

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Fan, in your followup to my followup you thanked me for my
        perspicacious question. Now I have to admit I had to look up the definition of per—, but thanks anyway.
        In reading through your response, I am still somewhat incredulous to the core concept of it. I am going to read the Pielke Sr. exchange and get back with a question on a later day.

      • ” As a concrete example, the observed transport of heat in the ocean is characterized by a effective transport coefficient of order 1 cm^2/s, which is many orders of magnitude larger than purely molecular physics can explain!”

        True, that number is about the same as the thermal conductivity of copper, which everyone will realize is a terrible insulator.

        So all the skeptics that think that incoming infrared radiation which gets absorbed by a thin surface skin layer can’t flow downward as heat are so terribly misinformed. Or more likely, they are intentional purveyors of FUD to maintain a fiction (i.e. lies) or extend the prank on the gullible types.

      • Webster, “So all the skeptics that think that incoming infrared radiation which gets absorbed by a thin surface skin layer can’t flow downward as heat are so terribly misinformed. Or more likely, they are intentional purveyors of FUD to maintain a fiction (i.e. lies) or extend the prank on the gullible types.”

        Which would flow more easily, the SW that penetrates to some depth or the LW that has to battle with convection? In the Tropics, the thermocline has a temperature of about 20C degrees. That is roughly 418 Wm-2 or about 80 Wm-2 greater than the estimated average DWLR.

        The rate of internal heat transfer in the oceans though does let them more closely mimic a true black body though, allowing the oceans to provide that DWLR. Since the oceans are providing the energy that they are supposed to be absorbing, your diffusion estimates seems to be like a circle jerk.

  24. If climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, climate sensitivity would be on negative watch. But it would not yet be downgraded.

    http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions?fsrc=rss|sct

  25. It seems to me that the Pacific cooling is due to a circulation change that caused more east Pacific upwelling. This gives the appearance of a lack of warming at the surface, when it is really just a spreading of colder water westwards in this circulation change. Skeptics used to promote the PDO and ocean circulation changes as important, but have abandoned that possibility for now. To me, this abandonment is a dramatic shift of emphasis away from circulations and towards not trusting data, which is the other oft-heard fall-back. Is there even a skeptic left who now believes that the surface cooling is an ocean circulation phenomenon like the PDO? Apparently not from their comments so far.

    • It must be ocean circulation cycles => http://orssengo.com/GlobalWarming/TransientGmst.png

    • Chief Hydrologist

      Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703

      This is absolutely main steam – although it is better to see PDO+ENSO as nodes on a comple network.

      ‘It is hypothesized that persistent and consistent trends among several climate modes act to ‘kick’ the climate state, altering the pattern and magnitude of air-sea interaction between the atmosphere and the underlying ocean. Figure 1 (middle) shows that these climate mode trend phases indeed behaved anomalously three times during the 20th century, immediately following the synchronization events of the 1910s, 1940s, and 1970s. This combination of the synchronization of these dynamical modes in the climate, followed immediately afterward by significant increase in the fraction of strong trends (coupling) without exception marked shifts in the 20th century climate state. These shifts were accompanied by breaks in the global mean temperature trend with respect to time, presumably associated with either discontinuities in the global radiative budget due to the global reorganization of clouds and water vapor or dramatic changes in the uptake of heat by the deep ocean.’

      http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/ReflectedSW-1998to2001climateshift_zps263e8ae9.jpg.html?sort=3&o=1

      You can see if the NASA image the dramatic cool V of the cool mode PDO+ENSO – which is associated with more low level marine cloud in the central and north-east Pacific.

      See for instance -http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Clementetal2009.png.html?sort=3&o=24

      ‘In summary, although there is independent evidence for decadal changes in TOA radiative fluxes over the last two decades, the evidence is equivocal. Changes in the planetary and tropical TOA radiative fluxes are consistent with independent global ocean heat-storage data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud radiative forcing. To the extent that they are real, they may simply reflect natural low-frequency variability of the climate system.’ IPCC 3.4.4.1

      The latter Clement et al study showed they were looking in the wrong – the continental US – for cloud change. There is indeed low fequency climate variability and the satellite data from both ERBS and ISCCP-FD show all of the recent warming as caused by cloud radiative forcing.

      Both the data and the core notion of climate as a coupled nonlinear chaotic system as what they are. It suggests that the world is not warming for a decade or 3 hence. Beyond that?

      ‘In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. This reduces climate change to the discernment of significant differences in the statistics of such ensembles. The generation of such model ensembles will require the dedication of greatly increased computer resources and the application of new methods of model diagnosis. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive, but such statistical information is essential.’ TAR s14.2

      Each model that is having a family of solutions within a probabilistic framework.

      I quote NASA, the TAR and AR4 as well as other bits of peer reviewed science from eminent scientists and respectable journals. Do you understand what this means? It means that mainstream science is quite different to what you imagine it is. Or at least that there is a conflict between new paradigms – that are at least a decade old – and old verities.

  26. From my reading, the deep ocean temps average between 0-3C. Assuming the “missing heat” has been somehow transferred to the deep ocean, given the difference in density and salinity, how would we detect the miniscule increase in average temps that would result? Particularly without…you know…actually measuring it. And how precisely is that heat then supposed to contribute to future massive increases in global surface temperatures?

  27. “rocks”
    Mr. webhubtelescope mockingly writes of my post in which I wrote that Judith rocks

    Mr wht mockingly writes of my post

    “rocks”
    Sure. If you were taking one of her final exams, would you say the same thing if one of the TA’s assigned you a fat big “F” ?
    In quotation marks. That’s what happens when you don’t do the math.
    Tough nougies, PG. No points for responding to your own comment.

    BTW, that’s what I always visualize when I read many commenters on this site — hunched over with beads of sweat while while poring over a blue exam book. It must be nice to comment w/o having a fear of failure.”

    Dear Mr. Telescope:

    It’s true I’m no stranger to big, fat F’s as you call them. I like em that way. Big and fat as opposed to skinny and anemic. Even back in high school I was a poker player, and something of a dummy as well, and in my junior year my home room teacher old Mr. Coviello tossed my report card on my desk as he walked by and said, “Congratulations pokerguy, full house.”

    I opened her up to find 3 f’s and 2 d’s. True story.

    Nice, eh? MIkey Mann doubtlessly had all A’s all through high school and college. Of course, they don’t grade character, or integrity, do they? Too bad…

    I refused to be intellectually intimidated Mr Telescope. I know a fraud when i see one. Are you arguing that I’m not entitled to an opinion because I don’t have a ph.d. in physics? If so, it’s actually “tough noogies” for you, sir. (A phrase every bit as cornball as my “Judith rocks” by the way). So go ahead and take the time Mr. Telescope. Tell me how wrong I am wrt to the failed predictions of Dr. Hansen, for example. Explain how he’s actually done a good job and hence should be trusted.

    My mind, what there is of it anyway, is wide open.

    • See? I can’t even organize a post properly as above. I flunked cutting and pasting as well.

  28. Interesting how the energy balance works out in the last decade. It says that if there is no surface warming, all the excess forcing goes into the ocean heat content’s rate of change. This rate of change is 1.5 W/m2 which is not far from the estimated current value of the climate forcing by GHGs minus aerosols, so this gradient is a direct measure of forcing when there is no surface warming to offset it. I think it is neat, anyway.

    • The surface is 2-dimensional. It can’t hold any heat anyway.

    • Yes, the surface radiation is proportional to its temperature, which is why the surface temperature is important in the net energy balance. The forcing can be canceled by an appropriate surface warming so that the upward radiation change cancels it.
      dF=dH/dt + lambda.dT
      When dT is zero, the dH/dt has to do the whole job for the dF forcing.

      • Jim D,
        In the form you have the linear feedback equation, dT is equal to the total change in temperature at some time t after applying a step-forcing of dF at time t=0 to a system in steady state. The fact that dT is not changing is not the same as saying it is zero.

      • Paul_K, yes, we have to interpret dF as the part of the forcing that has not yet been canceled by surface warming, and dT as the amount that would cancel it. If I am taking dF as the full forcing, I need to consider that dT includes the response so far. This, perhaps, makes it even more worrying that the dH/dt is that high in the last decade, as it represents the difference between the total forcing and the surface temperature response so far. If we take dT as 0.7 C and lambda as ~1.2 W/m2/K (about a 3C sensitivity) we get 0.8 W/m2 from that term too. I can even get another few tenths from the net Arctic ice volume melt (nearly 10000 cubic km) in this period, which makes it worse. However, now I see that dH/dt is more like 1 W/m2 averaged over the earth’s surface, so we have something in the ballpark with dF=1.0+0.8 W/m2 and the amount from CO2 alone should be about 1.8 W/m2.

  29. The AGW hypothesis says there must be a lot of heat in the system—even if it cannot be detected. But, the oceans have been in a cooling trend for a decade. And, as we all know by now, when the oceans are cooling there is no global warming.

    So, who lost the heat? Kevin Trenberth says it’€™s a travesty we that we cannot explain this (“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t”). Maybe, it just is no€™t there, right?

    And, if the lost heat simply does not exist, then the AGW hypothesis is wrong. Sure. But, what does that mean for climate change and temperature predictions?

    Perhaps the present cooling trend will continue for another 3 to 7 decades. Some scientists believe that is possible. Perhaps the Earth is heading into the redux of an already overdue ice age.

    And, what can we expect if solar activity is the nominal driver of all climate change? We have a lot of research that has shed light on the multi-decadal time scale of solar cycles over the last millennium with, for example, periodicities of 200, 100, and 60 years. And currently we have incontrovertible observational evidence of an anomalously quiet Sun.

    Does humanity have a rendezvous with a date made in heaven? Is Nature knocking on the door? Is Nature bringing global warming or cooling? Will Nature give us a taste of what life will be like on snowball Earth during the 90,000 years of the next ice age? Nobody knows the answers to these questions.

    • The AGW hypothesis says there must be a lot of heat in the system—even if it cannot be detected.

      It says no such thing.

      It says detecting it might be beyond our current means. Trenberth’s latest paper tries to deal with that.

      • If the AGW hypothesis says detecting the heat might be beyond our current means does it also say polar bears are dying from the heat but we just can’t find all of the dead bears?

      • David

        You say

        “… detecting it might be beyond our current means. Trenberth’s latest paper tries to deal with that.’

        So is it reasoable to say that it might be beyond our current means to detect extra heat being added in some manner by the sun or indeed by a number of other mechaosms?
        tonyb

      • The AGW hypothesis says there must be a lot of heat in the system—even if it cannot be detected.

        It says no such thing.

        It says detecting it might be beyond our current means.

        Doesn’t that mean the hypothesis is not currently testable?

        Trenberth’s latest paper tries to deal with that.

        By proposing a method of detecting the currently undetectable heat?

    • Perhaps the present cooling trend will continue for another 3 to 7 decades. Some scientists believe that is possible.

      Who says this is possible? Name even one scientist who thinks this.

      CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It warms the planet. This is a cornerstone of climatology, and has been for > 100 yrs.

      Name one person who doubts it.

      • Nikola Scafetta believes that, “The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040.” Scafetta’s forecast is based upon, ‘physical mechanisms’ and ‘the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators,’ such as for examples, ENSO effects and solar activity. Qing-Bin Lu believes that, “a long-term global cooling starting around 2002 is expected to continue for next five to seven decades.”

      • Wow! His theory is based on “physical mechanisms!”

        That’s amazing, because everyone else’s theories are based on the properties of chocolate chip cookies, or something.

        Is there any reason at all to accept Scaffeta’s ideas? Has he, for example, made any prediction that agrees with experiment, that no one else has made?

      • David, you are so “yesterday”. Get with it, you game is up. What a Mann.

      • Bob: Do you have any substance?

      • The only “physical mechanisms” are planetary alignments. Need I say more?

      • David Appell, substance? Yes, but not for the journalist to the climate mafia.

      • Can’t deliver, huh Bob?
        I thought so.

      • The only “physical mechanisms” are planetary alignments.

        Yes. Because you’re wrong, especially when independent actors dig up carbon and put it into the atmosphere.

      • Bob: As a journalist, I must balance a wide spectrum of opinions in a contentious field.

        I have studied climate science in depth. I try to follow the literature as best I can, and I talk to a lot of scientists as I report on its happenings. I have a PhD in theoretical physics, so I think I know a little bit about science and how it’s done.

        I’ve been following this field, and writing about it, for almost 15 years. I judge it as best I can, as unbiased as I can, to the degree than I can. I stand by my reporting, but if you have comments, please write me via http://www.davidappell.com

      • Chief Hydrologist

        ‘Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “The persistence of this large-scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.”

        Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”
        http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703

        ‘Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ Swanson and Tsonis 2009 – Has the climate recently shifted?

        There are any number of scientists who understand that we are in a cool mode – and these last 20 to 40 years in the proxies. The sun is cooling from a 1000 year grand maxima. The MOC seems likely to decline this century with little confidence that it won’t change abruptly. A shift to La Nina dominance over hundreds of years seems likely. Finally – top down forcing from solar UV/ozone interactions seem likely to result in coolness from both the Southern and Northern Annular Modes peetrating into lower latitudes – this may be connected to changes in the solar magneto modulated by the orbits of the big outer planets in especially.

        Who did you say you were? Someone with little understanding and a big mouth apparently. My especial bête noire.

      • “Who did you say you were? Someone with little understanding and a big mouth apparently. My especial bête noire.”

        Who are you Chief? Yes, the Chief Proctologist, the guy that can measure a temperature in exactly one place. bada bing

      • Chief Hydrologist

        So webby – you return to the form we are all familiar with. Juvenile insults, incompetent maths and fantasy physics. Someone who definitely qualifies as a mouth sans brain.

      • Chief, spotted your game on day 1.
        An impediment to progress.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        My especial interest is to understand climate in the context of coupled, non-linear, chaotic systems. This something that is accpted by the IPCC, The Royal Society, the National Academy of Sciences and indeed at such bastions of scepticism as realclimate and skepticalscience. This evolved out of looking at data. First for Australian rainfall regimes and then at global ocean and atmospheric indices from which we can deduce global – and especially regional – rainfall patterns for seasons to decades ahead. This naturally engendered an interest in control variables for these things in solar TSI and UV – and in feedbacks on cloud, ice, THC, snow, dust, biology and atmosphere. This seems to me to be a very humble occupation – a worker in the vineyards of science much as very many have been in the long history of science.

        I am a natural philosopher with an interest in big picures. What was Beth’s poem about Chinese scholars gathering in the woods to discuss the meaning of life – which woods were soon filled with drinking, carousing and obscene songs? That about covers it.

        My essential position on emissions I have described many times. Wally Broeker defined it as poking a stick at an angry beast. I have said that chaos creates uncertain risks. That arguing that there is no risk is an argument from extreme ignorance. I have called myself a climate catastrophist in the sense of René Thom. I have railed about extremes of ‘dragon-kings’ until I am blue in the face.

        But the fact remains that it is very likely the the world will not warm for some decades yet – something that is seen in these indices I have been staring down for decades. The question I keep asking is what that will do to the politics of carbon mitigation. It seems likely lost for another generation.

        I have suggested approaches – as have many others – involving black carbon and tropospheric ozone, building the productivity of agriculural soils by incorporating carbon – something that is low cost, saves water adn conserves soil – environmental restoration, development, education, health, safe water and sanitation. There are direct measures and indirect measures aimed at managing population and development.

        You have confronted nothing but your own ignorance, egotism and incompetence. It is you who are the enemy of progress.

      • David Appell, Ok, let’s play. Would you like to discuss:
        1. Crazy Hansen and his wildly wrong predictions
        2. Stats and data challenged Mann
        3. Steig and the southern continent
        4. The psychological profile of Mann
        5. Shakin and Marcott’s mendacity
        6. The corrupt climate funding machine
        7. Criminality of Gleick
        8. The corrupt IPCC
        9. Peer review corruption
        10. Trenbirth’s “magical” missing heat
        11. Or how about we discuss you role in promoting one of the greatest scandals in scientific history

      • Bob, this has all been inside baseball, confined to the box scores, and wept over only by a few fans. Now it’s beginning to creep to the front page. David, you could be famous, someday.
        ================

      • David Appell, you are a journalist are you not?
        Are you here to be informed or are your trying to take the piss?
        Do you understand the questions that get one labeled a denier, and compared to Creationists?
        Do you understand why people with do not for instance buy the story that the paper under discussion us selling?
        Do you know you come across as yet another slimy jerk?

      • Davis Appell, ” I’ve been following this field, and writing about it, for almost 15 years. I judge it as best I can, as unbiased as I can, to the degree than I can. I stand by my reporting, but if you have comments, please write me via http://www.davidappell.com
        David, most of us have read your writings. The problem is either your inability to understand the truth about the nefarious Mann or you are incapable of unbiased writing because of deep ideology. Credibility, once lost, is difficult to regain.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Let’s all pick on David. I have problems with Lord of the Flies moments.

        Scafetta’s forecast is based upon …’physical mechanisms’ and ‘the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators’…

        Lockwood has for instance suggested a solar UV/climate link – which may indeed be related to the outer planets http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/138/paper/AS06018.htm

        Collective sychonisation of coupled oscillators a la Tsonis is quite obvious.

      • David Appell | March 30, 2013 at 12:25 am |
        CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

        So are oxygen and nitrogen greenhouse gases. The “AGW The Greenhouse Effect” is an illusion, created by magic tricks, sleights of hand.

        It warms the planet. This is a cornerstone of climatology, and has been for > 100 yrs. Name one person who doubts it.

        Well, anyone who has checked out the history of this and found Arrhenius based his reasoning on zilch understanding of the atmosphere and heat transport and so couldn’t understand what Fourier was saying, so he began by premising what Fourier said didn’t exist.

        A look at how Arrhenius got Fourier completely wrong by Timothy Casey : http://greenhouse.geologist-1011.net/

        Besides, as Angstrom pointed out to him, Arrhenius was using carbonic acid not carbon dioxide, he hadn’t taken out the water content. Arrhenius was a chemist, he knew the difference..

        What he was getting was the great heat capacity of water which carbon dioxide doesn’t have; carbon dioxide has even less ability to “trap” heat than oxygen and nitrogen, it releases any heat instantly. It is of no significance against water as Angstrom pointed out, and, as I’ve just posted elsewhere, that is the exact conclusion from those running the AIRS project. Carbon dioxide is a trace gas that can be ignored here..

        I sometimes think the arguments for AGW/CAGW come from disembodied spirits because none seem to be able to appreciate the physical properties of the world around us. They can’t appreciate the power of heat because they’ve never cooked..

        Anyway, you asked for one name, here’s another:

        “Carbon cycle modelling and the residence time of natural and anthropogenic atmospheric CO2:
        on the construction of the “Greenhouse Effect Global Warming” dogma.

        Tom V. Segalstad
        Mineralogical-Geological Museum
        University of Oslo
        Sars’ Gate 1, N-0562 Oslo
        Norway

        “Abstract
        “The three evidences of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that the apparent contemporary atmospheric CO2 increase is anthropogenic, is discussed and rejected: CO2 measurements from ice cores; CO2 measurements in air; and carbon isotope data in conjunction with carbon cycle modelling.”

        Continued on: http://www.co2web.info/ESEF3VO2.htm

  30. “The time series show monthly anomalies smoothed with a 12-month running mean, with respect to the 1958–1965 base period. ” (Above)

    “Key Weaknesses
    First 2 decades should be used with caution (large uncertainties)
    Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) at 26N is underestimated
    Large surface salinity errors”

    Q: How can one infer a trend from data based on anomaly with reference to the starting period, when the starting period contains the data with the highest uncertainty?

    A: By reanalysing the data until you get the answer you were looking for.

  31. The abstract says: “The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced.” Translation, when the reanalysis is based on fewer observations in recent years, the biases of the model used to perform the reanalysis make the deep ocean colder. Therefore, reanalysis of the years without Argo data is probably biased colder by the same model. If you place great faith in long-term trends from the ORAS4 reanalysis, I’d like to sell you a bridge in Brooklyn and the reanalysis cited by Paltridge showing a long-term decrease in the humidity of the upper troposphere. At least Paltridge was candid about the problems inherent in extracting long-term trends from reanalyses.

    Something strange occurs during the 1997-8 El Nino. The shallow ocean (0-300 and 0-700 m) cools, while the whole ocean remains the same temperature. This implies that the deeper ocean warmed while the shallow ocean cooled.

    • Chief Hydrologist

      http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Wong2006figure7.gif.html?sort=3&o=91

      http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Wongetal2006fig8_zps88e7615f.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

      ‘Figure 7 gives a direct interannual comparison of these new ocean heat storage data from 1993 to 2003 against those from the 12-month running mean ERBE/ERBS Nonscanner WFOV Edition3_Rev1 and CERES/Terra Scanner ES4 Edition2_Rev1 net flux anomalies. The CERES/Terra Scanner results are global and the ERBE/ERBS Nonscanner WFOV results cover 60°N to 60°S (or 87% of the earth’s surface).

      ‘The net flux anomalies are calculated with respect to the 1985–89 period. They are basically deseasonalized anomalies similar to those shown in previous figures. A 12-month running mean filter has been applied to the
      TOA radiation data to reduce the temporal sampling noise and to match up directly with the corresponding time scale of the ocean storage data. The ocean heat storage data (Willis et al. 2004) is available only in annually smoothed seasonal data. The drop in the global ocean heat storage in the later part of 1998 is associated with cooling of the global ocean after the rapid warming of the ocean during the 1997–98 El Niño event (Willis t al. 2004).’ http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Wong_ERBEreanalysis.pdf

      Not sure how anyone can get El Nino cooling of the oceans even from the graph in the post at any level.

  32. Meanwhile Hansen just published “Climate forcing growth rates: doubling
    down on our Faustian bargain”
    http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/011006/pdf/1748-9326_8_1_011006.pdf
    where he says fossil fuel burning has accelerated a lot in the last decade. So the forcing driving this ocean warming is getting stronger at an accelerating rate. This would mostly be China, I believe.

  33. Berényi Péter

    If you look at the details, it is quite clear this current OHC history reconstruction is inconsistent with the one found at the NOAA NODC OCL site, based on Levitus 2012.

    It is never enough to say “Look, they’re basically telling the same story, it is increasing. The thing meant to show you vaguely similar pretty images and tell you stories is called journalism, which is an entirely different realm.

    Science, on the other hand, is not about pictures & tales, but datasets and true propositions describing their properties. One can’t compare images to theories, so pictures are utterly useless in either confirming or refuting them. I don’t even see why they are allowed to appear in scientific journals.

    For what one can do, is compare a set of propositions describing a dataset derived from measurements to another set of propositions arrived at by theoretical means to see if the two sets are logically consistent or not. One can and should do the same with propositions describing two different datasets purported to measure the same variable.

    The propositions I am talking about here are long & boring ones, like “average value of x between t1 and t2 is greater than u1 but less than v1 AND average value of x between t2 and t3 is greater than u2 but less than v2 AND average value of x between t3 and t4 is greater than u3 but less than v3 AND etc., etc. ad nauseam”

    One can’t reliably reconstruct such propositions by looking at images. This is why it would be obligatory to publish genuine datasets along with papers. In that case anyone could redo the formal description and look for logical inconsistencies (should they exists) by programmatical means, outsourcing the boring part this way but still retaining full logical rigor.

    That’s how science is done, not by press releases.

    So. Levitus & Balmaseda are inconsistent. That leaves us with 3 possibilities. Either the first one is right and the second is wrong or it is the other way around. On top of that both of them can be in error, of course. Before proceeding to propositions like “Trenberth’s missing heat is found! (or not)”, we should settle this humble question first.

    We should ask questions like “Is it possible that between 2000 and 2003 about 5×10^22 Joules were sequestered below 2000 m, but none after that date?”

    • Berényi, can you please be more specific?

      I am writing about some of this right now, and I’d like to know why these calculations aren’t compatible.

      But you haven’t given enough detail to show why.

      Write me if you can’t post here:
      david.appell@gmail.com

      • ” David Appell | March 30, 2013 at 2:30 am | Reply

        Berényi, can you please be more specific?”

        I would like to see demonstrated how they are inconsistent as well. The NOAA sets appear less noisy, but otherwise have the same trend. The NOAA data appear to be the same as the stacked bar chart that Nuccitelli et al published, which I have as Figure 3 on this blog post:
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html
        The same model was used on Figure 2 and Figure 3 so they are largely consistent, apart from the noise.

      • How can you write about the topic if you haven’t done the necessary homework?

      • Peter Lang: I haven’t written yet. I am doing my homework right now. Care to contribute?

      • Berényi Péter

        @David

        I can’t be too specific, because
        1. Balmaseda et al. is paywalled (that is, not really “published”)
        2. We don’t have the supplementary data, just a pretty picture

        Levitus et al. passes both conditions where Balmaseda fails miserably. For example they have Yearly global upper ocean (0-700 m) heat content data from 1955 to 2012 published, with proper error terms.

        In that dataset we find this (in 10^22 J units):
        2000.5: 5.587 ± 0.577
        2006.5: 10.430 ± 0.199

        If we assume their annual error terms are independent, it means upper ocean heat content has increased by 4.573 ± 0.591 × 10^22 J in that 6 years. Balmaseda 2013 is a more difficult case, because we only have this image you can see at the head of this post. However, the bunch of blue lines in that picture are supposed to represent the same quantity we have just seen in Levitus 2012. If we attempt to recover digital data from it, the case shown above looks like this:

        2000.5: 2.612 ± 0.758
        2006.5: 11.461 ± 0.337

        Offsets are arbitrary here, so let’s compute the increase, which is directly comparable to the one derived from Levitus’s data. It comes out as 8.849 ± 0.830 × 10^22 J.

        If we allow for 2 sigma differences, we have the following proposition:

        “Upper ocean heat content has increased between mid 2000 and mid 2006 by no more than 5.756 × 10^22 J and not less than 7.190 × 10^22 J”

        We are not better off with 3 sigma either.

        “Upper ocean heat content has increased between mid 2000 and mid 2006 by no more than 4.347 × 10^22 J and not less than 6.360 × 10^22 J”

        There are clearly no such numbers (error bars don’t overlap, not even by 3 sigma). If we accept both studies, their joint set of propositions allows for a false statement to be derived and from a single such proposition anything follows. Sorry, logic just works like that.

        This era is the transition between XBTs to ARGO, so no wonder they have no idea what’s actually happened. There would be no problem with that, if it were clearly stated. But it is not, in either study.

        (check my numbers please, I was in a hurry)

      • There is knowledge missing and it’s a travesty that we can’t find it.
        =================

      • Berényi Péter

        Second proposition correctly (for 3 sigma):
        “Upper ocean heat content has increased between mid 2000 and mid 2006 by no more than 6.347 × 10^22 J and not less than 6.360 × 10^22 J”

      • Here is the Levitus picture of spatio-temporal diffusive warming of ocean layers.
        http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BbuNFfz37Ag/UVbtbw5KhAI/AAAAAAAADYc/hZCTyOJnLck/s1600/noaa.GIF

        To understand the model read the following post:
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html

        I guess the point is, without having access to the Balmaseda paper, why does the amount of fluctuations differ so much than what Levitus reports and what is on the NOAA site.
        http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
        Balmaseda is clearly showing the effects of volcanic perturbations more starkly than Levitus. Volcanic particulates and aerosols clearly effect the amount of visible light that enters the ocean.

      • Volcanic forcing also impacts the NH more than the SH. The oceans provide the energy for the DWLR. The smaller percentage of ocean area to land in the NH plus the higher average temperature of the NH ocean surfaces cause a larger response to all forcing.

    • Chief Hydrologist

      To what extend should we have confidence in the reanalysis results? Based upon verification statistics, there is clearly some advantages to the reanalysis relative to the raw observations. However the big issue is whether we can infer reliable global trends from the reanalysis, owing to changes in the observing system (not just for the ocean, but for the surface fluxes derived from atmospheric reanalyses), and uncertainties in the overall methodology. The surprising finding is the apparent sequestration of heat in the global ocean starting circa 2000, which has been accompanied by a flattening of the trend of upper ocean temperatures since 2003. Is this real, or an artifact of the reanalysis process? We don’t know, there is a debate underway in the oceanographic and climate communities on this topic.

      There are two questions being asked.

      Whether the XBT data exists at depth in sufficient quantity to provide a reaonable estimate. A question of methodology.

      The second concerns the odd jump at the splice of XBT and ARGO data, Where did the energy come from?

      Trenberth said that the missing energy was seen in CERES – which seems much more consistent with purely ARGO data. .

      http://www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/8/999/2011/osd-8-999-2011.pdf

  34. At least now the narrative is getting narrowed down process-wise. It’s the La Nina window collecting the heat as it exposes deep-water to the atmosphere, E. Pacific regional and barely Argo discernible. Trade wind variability allegedly took part (how did it vary?), still that seems unnecessary if it’d be really the deep-water. And how does such deep-dispersed heat actually do when it returns to haunt us any time soon (decadal-centennial-scale)?

  35. john DeFayette

    I just can’t shake certain images from my head while reading through this discussion on missing heat. I keep seeing Leonard Nimoy, and his voiceover drowns out all background noise. Dr. Trenberth may be of my generation, so I wonder if he has the same problem when he goes to work each day.

    Stylistically, of course, “In Search of…” was more entertaining, but as far as policy impact the folks at NCAR win hands down. How long will these reruns just keep coming back to haunt us?

  36. really clutching at straws now. To summarize whb – these straws take the missing heat down and ARGO fails to detect it [fail]. Hansen the heat magically appears in the lower layers [fail].
    If the heat is not there then it did not get there. Mechanisms increased cloud cover reflecting it all back [Dr Spencer ???]. Increased reflectivity at sea surface [anyone ???- fail] less re-absorption by the atmosphere/co2 [more straws]. Errors in measurement of the actual incoming heat so less received [unlikely].
    Nonetheless a reason for the missing heat must include one or more of the last 4 answers.
    Any ideas!

    • We know Kevin has considered that the heat has been re-radiated, from his famous ’08 interview in NPR. This stuff is placing appeals on milk cartons.
      =====================

      • This seems to remind me of Kimoto and the 20Wm-2 math error in the old Trenberth budgets.

      • “sure it has. we measure it all the time”

        What device was it measured with and when? What was the value?

        Andrew

      • Steven Mosher

        Bad Andrew.
        Speed = Distance/Time. So we measure speed indirectly by measuring distance and time.
        Sensitivity = Change in Temperature/Change in Forcing.

        You measure temperature with thermometers. There are many kinds.
        You measure change in Forcing by measuring watts. Many ways to measure.

        The value you get is a function of the measuring tool and time over which you take the measure. Depending on that you will get values between 0.3 and 2. ( one could derive .37 from first principles) Recall that the first measurements of the speed of light had a wide spread. It took centuries to resolve.

      • Steven, you write “Speed = Distance/Time. So we measure speed indirectly by measuring distance and time.
        Sensitivity = Change in Temperature/Change in Forcing.
        You measure temperature with thermometers. There are many kinds.
        You measure change in Forcing by measuring watts. Many ways to measure.”

        There is a huge non sequiter, which you have omitted. When you measure speed, then you observe directly that the object that covers the distance, does so in a certain time. “Measuring” climate sensitivity is different. There is no control over what is changing the global temperature. There are all sorts of variables, both knowns, and unknowns, that change global temperature. As I have noted many times, in order to actually measure climate change, you need to prove that it is the CO2, and only the CO2 that is causing the observed change in temperature. With current technology, this is impossible.

        So, your claimed method for “measuring” climate sensitivity is simply just plain wrong.

      • “You measure temperature with thermometers.” ” You measure change in Forcing by measuring watts.”

        Steven Mosher,

        I’m sorry, I missed the part where you answered my question, which was:

        What device was it (cs) measured with and when?

        Andrew

      • Andrew. As I expected, Steven Mosher seems to have disappeared. Usually, when warmists make a mistake, they do not have the scientific integrity to admit it. Actually, for your question, if you read the definition of radiative forcing in the IPCC TAR to WG1, you will find it relates to a completely hypothetical situation, which makes radiative forcing impossible to measure. What the warmists do is to use validated radiative transfer models, which measure something entirely different, to arrive at an estimate of radiative forcing.

      • Jim,

        You may have your interpretation. Mine is that it’s often seen that the other party rejects all reasonable arguments and that continuing the discussion serves no purpose, as all others reading the earlier comments have already understood the point. Only those hopeless cases who are too stuck to their misconceptions to learn anything remain.

        If you think that you have won the argument when you don’t get replies anymore, think again.

      • So it’s been measured? Thank Heavens, at last. Quick, Pekka, tell me what it is.
        ==============

      • Pekka, you write “If you think that you have won the argument when you don’t get replies anymore, think again.”

        Fair enough. Let me ask you directly. Has the climate sensitivity of CO2, however it is defined, been measured? I dont want any long explanations to why my question is irrelevant. A simple yes or no is all that is required.

      • Kim,

        Repeating the same arguments for the tenth time is of no use. If you haven’t understood them so far, I can’t help you.

      • Jim,

        I have answered that same question recently. So has Steven Mosher.

      • Well, whatever the estimate of the sensitivity is we know this: The higher the sensitivity, the colder it would presently be without man’s input.

        Maybe we’d be better off hoping for a high sensitivity.
        =================================

      • ===========================
        ==========================

      • “Speed = Distance/Time”

        This looks like a calculation to me. And what the hell it has to do with measuring cs, I guess only Warmers know. It must be a proxy for something.

        HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE

        “Then the other disciple also went in,
        the one who had arrived at the tomb first,
        and he saw and believed.”

        Andrew

      • Pekka, you write “Jim,
        I have answered that same question recently. So has Steven Mosher.”

        Weasel words. Ok, you answered the question recently. I have lost your answer. What was it?

        Actually, I do not recall that either you or Stecven have EVER given a straightforward yes or no to this question. You know that if you do, the whole house of cards that is CAGW comes crashing down.

        So let me repeat the question, and I am sure it is no trouble for you to just type “yes” or “no”. It is a lot shorter than what you wrote above.

        Has the climate sensitivity of CO2, however defined, been measured?

      • Coo, it’s not been measured and it hasn’t been very well estimated, either.

        See my 9:37 above.
        ===========

      • The fun part is that the CO2 forcing has been measured very accurately but the “surface” it impacts never has been. Not that many people really care if the tropopause warms or cools by 1.44 C +/- a touch since most of us don’t live in that neighborhood. It is kinda like the temperature at the airport or the surface temperature of Venus, so?

      • JIm,

        This is exactly, what I referred to when I wrote that it’s of no use to repeat the same argument for the tenth time. I have been arguing on the same point with you for much of the time Climate Etc. has existed.

        It’s all about the meaning of the word “measure” and about the great variability of methods that can be used in making measurements. The semantic issues extend also to the concepts science and proper scientific methods..

        I just don’t accept your definitions for any of these concepts, neither do any practicing scientists.

      • And the idea that an aspect of ‘climate’ can be reduced to a single magical holy grail numerical value is completely absurd. But let’s take one stupidity at a time, right?

        Andrew

      • Whatever the estimate of sensitivity the higher it is the colder we would presently be without man’s input.

        When we measure the sensitivity we will be able to calculate how much colder we would presently be without man’s input.

        A distinction with a difference.
        ================

      • Pekka, you write “It’s all about the meaning of the word “measure” ”

        Fair enough. What is your definition of what the word “measure” means?

      • Jim

        This is the most recent thread where I discussed that

        http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/24/american-physical-society/#comment-306606

        There are many others in the past.

      • Pekka, pick a sensitivity high enough to frighten you. Calculate how cold we’d now be without man’s influence. Brrrr.
        ==================================

      • Pekka, you wrote “I used here the word “estimate” but making estimates in ways that involve empirical data is exactly the same thing as measuring.”

        NOW I understand. The WAY in which the estimates are made is irrelevant. Even if the way the estimate is made is wrong, the result is the same as a measuement, providing there was empirical data on which to base the estimate.

        Sorry, Pekka, you and I have a completely different idea of what “measurement” means, and you are never going to admit that I am correct.

      • Sorry, Pekka, you and I have a completely different idea of what “measurement” means, and you are never going to admit that I am correct.

        Now you made an statement that I can agree on. That’s what I have been telling for much of the time Climate Etc. has existed.

    • angech, you write “Any ideas!”

      Yes. the climate sensitiviy of CO2, however defined, has never been measured, so there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever, that there was any missing heat in the first place.

  37. OK People; Simple two box model.
    We have in box 1) warm saline, fifteen degrees, sitting above 90% 2) very cold dense saline, four degrees.
    The depth is 4 km.
    Now so we are all on the same page. Heat, by what ever mechanism, will be transferred from the warm surface to the depths, therefore the surface will cool and the depths war. This will happen until the system come to thermal equilibrium. Simple, classical, physics.
    HOWEVER this temperature gradients exists and has existed for a million years or more. The temperature gradient represents a steady state, No matter what the rate of heat transfer is from the warm surface to the cold bottom, there must be an equal and opposite rate of ‘cold’ replenishment. This ‘cold’ comes from the arrival of cold, polar brine’s.
    Do we all agree? Steady state system, heat go down from warm top and is matched by addition of cold water to bottom.
    Now, the rate at which heat is transferred between a war and cool body is dependent on the difference in temperature. The greater the difference in the temperatures of the two bodies, the greater the overall rate.

    What can affect the steady state

    There are therefore two ways we can war the depths; firstly alter the rate at which cold water enters the oceans
    Decreasing the amount of cold brine going into the bottom of the ocean will cause warming, and a drop in sea level.
    Increasing the amount of cold brine going into the bottom of the ocean will cause cooling, and a rise in sea level.

    We are witnessing a rise in sea level.
    Secondly, the temperature gradient between the surface and bottom could be increased, cause a greater rate of warming at the bottom.
    However, we can never have a more rapid rate of warming at he bottom of the ocean than at the top, unless the rate constant of thermal conductivity is altered.
    Thus, it is not possible for the bottom of the oceans to warm without either a slowing of the rate of polar water injection into the bottom, a rise in the surface temperature OR a change in the mechanism by which heat is transferred between the two layers.

    • Doc, with just a simple two box model, the surface diffusion is balanced by polar deep water sinking as sea ice is formed annually. The two box has issues though.

      In the tropics the “thermocline” as defined by the largest temperature gradient is roughly 20 C degrees. In the mid latitudes the “thermocline” is roughly 12 C degrees. The surface mixing and cooling at the poles produces a range of colder denser water that can “slide” in between the different regional thermoclines.

      Over the longest time frame, the coldest bottom water sinking at ~1.9C and ~37g/kg salinity produces the most stable state, an average ocean temperature range of ~2.6C to 4 C degrees. Over shorter time frames, changes in sea ice formation and surface winds produce larger fluctuations. Since the two hemispheres can get in or out of phase, surface temperatures between 50N and 50S can produce a larger range of fluctuation.

      https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-BFHNuJM8qm8/UVYZqjStgtI/AAAAAAAAHpU/6jphBeRewXw/s912/45N%2520to%2520pole%2520tdo%2520%2520bintanja%2520with%2520Kim%2520and%2520Ruehlmann.png

      That compares tropical Atlantic SST north and south of the equator with high north Atlantic (45N to pole) bottom water temperature, Tdo.

      The “shift” in pacific ocean circulation may be linked to the Atlantic reaching a peak thermal capacity shifting the thermal equator to its northern most point, the near ice free summer Arctic mode which is the precursor of glaciation.

      I think you and Trenberth are going to need more boxes.

    • If we had the mathematics for it might take every computer in the world to actually model the phenomenon of swirling vortices on a global basis but in your example I think it probably is more accurate to think of the cold water at the top and not cold water added to the bottom that charges the system.

      • The cold water HAS to go to the bottom, because that is where it is cold and the top has to be warm because that’s where the sunshine lands.
        Why the ocean is mostly cold, rather than being in equilibrium with the surface is very important.

  38. “However, we can never have a more rapid rate of warming at he bottom of the ocean than at the top”
    What’s the evidence that we do? It’s warming at the top.

    • Nick, have you read the title of this thread?
      Nick, have you looked at Figure, at the top, you know the Figure?
      Nick, can you see that there is more heat/unit volume RISE in the 700-300m depth than in the 0-300m depth.
      Now water below 300m is cold and is getting warmer than the water above 300m.

      ITS IN FIGURE 1. AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE AND WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT

      Nick:-
      LOOK SQUIRREL,
      Quantum,
      Potatoe or potato,
      Tomatoe or tomato
      Thermodynamics.
      Box model

    • DM is starting to flip out.

      “Nick, can you see that there is more heat/unit volume RISE in the 700-300m depth than in the 0-300m depth.”

      Perhaps you are misinterpreting the fact that it is equivalent to what is called a stacked line graph. The stacking is effective as it is used to show both a cumulative effect and the distinctions among the layers.

      So heat content of 0-700m is greater than 0-300m by definition.

      You can also use Levitus to help with the interpretation, scroll to the bootom of this post
      http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html

      • A picture says a thousand words. The end of the Trenberth’s 2013 Figure 1. Please feel free to take out your rule’s and do your own measurement. The plot shows that 700-300m is warming faster than 300-0m.
        The data starts at 2001/2.

        http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w318/DocMartyn/deepoceanJPEG_zpsc6585990.jpg

      • DM, I think you are making a mountain out of a molehill with your analysis. Disregarding any systemic measurement errors such as instrumentation noise, the thing you are missing is the idea of a cumulative time effect in the layering. The heat that accumulates in the layers is a gradual effect that occurs over many years, and dispersion&diffusion will tend to equalize the heat that enters each layer. So you show a 1/89 versus a 1/100 discrepancy in the accumulation of heat in a pair of layers. This is a 10% departure from perfect diffusive mixing.
        Sure enough, the discrepancy shows up in the simple diffusive model as well, where the relative fractions can not be perfectly aligned:
        http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/7860/ohc.gif

        The fact that you found perhaps a 10% error may or may not be relevant. It could be systemic noise. It could be a real error you uncovered in your role as an auditor.

        The question is, does this noisy inconsistency blow their analysis completely apart?

        Do the same thing with the Levitus characterization:
        http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BbuNFfz37Ag/UVbtbw5KhAI/AAAAAAAADYc/hZCTyOJnLck/s1600/noaa.GIF
        where they use 700 meters and 2000 meters

      • So Web, I show your assertion was wrong. I show that Figure 1 shows the 700-300m layer heating at a greater rate than the layer that is supposed to be the heat source for the heating.
        Look Squirrel is your response.
        This cannot be a diffusion of heat, diffused heat does not jump.

      • Doc,
        I could query the calc details that you’ve given, or just note that even so it shows the top layers warming at almost the same rate as the lower. But you have to allow for the volume of the respective layers, and you can’t just say it’s proportional to depth – the ocean is not a cylinder.

        Nuccitelli et al did do the proper calc from Levitus in their Phys Lett A paper, now published. From Table 1, for 2002-8, they found of the downward flux, 0.44 W/m2 stayed in the level 0-700 m; 0.26 W/m2 went into the 700-2000m level. That’s what you’d expect of a downward diffusive heat flux.

      • Nick, Nick, for the love of Dawkins, the thread is entitled

        Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

        Now at the top we have figure 1, which you have pontificated about above.

        Now, after I blew up the Figure, showing that Trenberth’s paper show MORE heating 700-300m compared with 300-0m you start throwing citations at me?
        What is it Nick? Do you think the Oceans are in a ‘V’ shape and so there is a substantial difference in the volume at 700m compared with 250 m?

        No Nick.
        You are throwing references at me because Trenberth is full of crap and you cannot defend his finding; his finding that the deeper ocean is warming faster than the surface.
        You know, and I know, that there is no mechanism that will transport heat from atmospheric CO2 to the 700-300m layer, without having a greater effect on the 300-0m layer.
        SLAM DUNK.
        You know the physics Nick. It’s bollocks and you know it.
        So what you do Nick; confetti, I actually thought better of you Nick, I believed you had more integrity than the bunny. Alas no, instead of analyzing the point, within the remit of the paper, you post links to a whole bunch of citations, classical climate science physics:-

        if you can dazzel them with diamonds, baffle them with 8ullsh1t.

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        DocMartyn froths: “Trenberth is [abuse redacted] … [unsupported claims redacted] … there is no mechanism that will transport heat from atmospheric CO2 to the 700-300m layer, without having a greater effect on the 300-0m layer [braggadocio redacted] …”

        DocMartyn, advancing scientific arguments via abuse, unsupported claims, and braggadocio is a puzzling policy … a rigorous mathematical argument would be infinitely more persuasive.

        It appears, however, that no such mathematical arguments are possible … for reasons WebHubTelescope and Nick Stokes have already elucidated.

        As a homely example, consider that the heat-energy increase of a (larger-mass) Thanksgiving-Day turkey is immensely greater than the heat-energy increase of the (lesser-mass) aluminum foil that wraps it — even though the turkey is heated entirely through the foil! Similarly, the heat-energy increase of a (larger-mass) deep ocean layer can be greater than the (lesser-mass) surface layer that wraps it — even though the deep layers are heated entirely through the surface layers!

        Thus the main features of the Trenberth heat-energy analysis are not complicated to understand.

        Conclusion  Weak arguments buttressed by personal abuse, unsupported claims, and braggadocio are pathognomonic of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • It is impossible to have equal heat transfer rates across a thermal gradient, rate is proportional to delta Temperature. You know this to be the case Fan, which is why you deliberately insult me.
        Trenberth shows that the rate of heating at 700-300 is a little fast than 300-0m; this is a physical impossibility, given the temperature gradient, I know it, Nick knows it, Web knows it and you know it Fan. Thats why you insult me yet again.

      • Speaking of pathognomonic.
        ======

      • Folie a combien?
        ====

      • Some people simply can’t tell the difference between heat content and temperature, it seems.

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        DocMartyn embraces conspiracy: “Trenberth shows that the rate of heating at 700-300 is a little fast than 300-0m; this is a physical impossibility, given the temperature gradient, I know it, Nick knows it, Web knows it and you know it Fan. Thats why you insult me yet again.”

        • Possibility A  A cabal of scientists and Climate Etc posters is conspiring against DocMartyn.

        • Possibility B  DocMartyn’s understanding of heat-energy transport needs strengthening.

        DocMartyn, with reference to the Thanksgiving turkey model of heat-energy transport, the thermal conductivity of the (thinner) aluminum foil is greater than the thermal conductivity of the (thicker) turkey itself. In consequence, the net heat-energy accumulating in the turkey can be greater than the net heat-energy accumulating in the foil.

        Similarly, with reference to the state of the art of ocean internal wave research:, there is credible reason to expect that the effective thermal conductivity of the (relatively thin) upper layers of the ocean is greater than the effective thermal conductivity of the (relatively thick) deeper layers. In consequence, the net heat-energy accumulating in the lower layers can be greater than the net heat-energy accumulating in the upper layers — precisely as in the Thanksgiving Turkey Model!

        Short Summary  Yes, Trenberth et al have found (in Judith Curry’s phrase) “the missing heat”.

        ——————

        Exemplars of Denialism  With reference to Pascal Diethelm and Martin McKee’s Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond? (2012) recent Climate Etc posts amply illustrate the five traits of denialism:

        Denialism is a process that employs some or all of five characteristic elements in a concerted way.

        • The first is the identification of conspiracies.
        • The second is the use of fake experts.
        • The third is selectivity [cherry-picking].
        • The fourth is impossible expectations.
        • The fifth is misrepresentation and logical fallacies.

        Everyone is thanked for multiple instructive posts!

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • It is very important to consider that a thermal gradient, by itself, does not force heat to move. The gradient could simply be the result of a build-up of thermal energy in one region. Thermal energy does not respond to forces, like a charge to electric field or a mass particle to gravity. You just have to look at the heat equation, which is purely diffusive. Of course, a difference in thermal conductivities can set up gradients in the steady state, or the convective motion of the underlying medium can also move heat around. The latter is what can be describe an “effective diffusion” if the convection is sufficiently randomized via eddy currents and compensated buoyant flow.

        Keep in mind that these diffusive models are additive. Whatever spatial thermal density profile that exists is irrelevant for an additional parcel of heat that is added to the system. It will diffuse within the containing region as if no other thermal energy exists. You can worry about that separately. That is the definition of additive. When I add heat to the system and look at the transient solution, I don’t have to consider the steady state heat distribution of the system, only the characteristics of the underlying medium.

        Thermal gradients in this context are observations of the system under study. You really have to understand what is happening at a fundamental level.

        These implicit response functions describing ocean heat content are interesting in that one can infer what is going on by inverting them with the help of transfer functions. That is what I am doing with my own simplified ocean heat content model:
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html

        Much of the misinterpretation comes from incorrect interpretation of the second law, i.e. the direction of heat flow. Remember those laws describe a system and the NET flow is what is important in that context.

        The quandary here is that DM is pointing out a partial inconsistency in the relative heat contents of the various layers. I agree there is a inter-layer deviation that can’t exist from purely diffusive flow. Yet, the overall picture supports top-down diffusive flow that can’t be denied.

        What I want to see is DocMartyn try to trash the overall picture of surface-downward diffusive flow, based on the effective forcing function acting as a stimulus. The first-order picture rules and the second-order observations point to deviations from that picture.

        I would recommend that interested people read this Hansen paper

        J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, “Earth’s energy imbalance and implications,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 11, no. 24, pp. 13421–13449, Dec. 2011.

        This compares the results of sophisticated models against the impulse response formulations that I fit against. Many physicists call an impulse response a “Green’s function” so don’t let that scare you off.

        Thanks again to David Springer for pointing out this paper as I was already going in this direction, and this is more than useful to creating a simplified picture of what is going on.

      • Fan, you are deliberately lying.
        You are a disgrace to academia.

      • I think he’s been taken over by the pod people. Maybe the lizard people.
        ====================

      • Wag. Have you ever put a steel poker in a fire? The end of the poker is red hot and heat is transmitted along the length. However, the surface radiates and so there is a temperature along the length, so one end is red hot and the other is able to be held.
        Now let us take Trenberth’s 2013 paper. He has a poker and measured the temperature along its length. Then he places the poker in a fire which is slightly hotter than the one it was sitting in.
        Placing the iron in the second fire causes a uniform rise in temperature all the way along the length or even rises it slightly more away from the end in the fire.
        This is nonsense.
        For pointing out that this is nonsense I am called a liar

        There is no point writing on this site anymore.

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        DocMartyn “Let us take Trenberth’s 2013 paper. He has a poker and measured the temperature along its length. Then he places the poker in a fire which is slightly hotter than the one it was sitting in. Placing the iron in the second fire causes a uniform rise in temperature all the way along the length or even rises it slightly more away from the end in the fire. This is nonsense. For pointing out that this is nonsense I am called a liar.”

        DocMartyn, wouldn’t your “poker” model more realistically represent the ocean — and in particular, more faithfully represent Trenberth/Hansen models — if the poker model were improved as follows:

        •  Increase the thermal conductivity of the heated end (shallow water), relative to the thermal conductivity of the bulk (deep water), and

        •  Analyse heat-energy density (not temperature), and

        •  Continuously exchange bits of hot iron (shallow/equatorial waters) for bits of cold iron (circulation-exchanging with deep/polar waters).

        Aside  DocMartyn, a word-search establishes that no Climate Etc comment on this thread has called you a “liar.” It is true — and surely is worthy of your reflection! — that numerous Climate Etc comments have pointed out that Trenberth/Hansen ocean models are physically more realistic (and mathematically better-posed) than DocMartyn “poker” models.

        Conclusion  Trenberth/Hansen oceanic heat-energy transport models are physically more realistic than DocMartyn “poker” models. Yes, Trenberth et al can reasonably claim to have (in Judith Curry’s phrase) “found the missing heat!”

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • OK, DM asserts that in the limit the ocean will warm uniformly over all layers. That is the asymptote of the paper’s figure which essentially shows dispersion of heat across various depths. Eventually the three curves will approach an asymptote where they each have proportional amounts of excess heat relative to the thickness of their layers.

        Yet, up to that point,the curves will show some dispersion. DM is complaining that one level has transiently exceeded the asymptotic level in comparison to a supposedly warmer level by ~10%. Should we be concerned by this? Is it just noise? Is it errors in measurement? Or is it some sort of oceanic burp?

        Or is this just some more of the famous nit-picking auditing that skeptics like to engage in?

  39. Judy, you’ve got to figure out how to get rhoda over here. Here’s rhoda, from the Bish’s Palace 3/30/13:

    ‘EM, that paper proposes a previously unsuspected and currently unexplained buffer in the deep ocean which can last an indeterminate time, but based on sparse measurement and modelled ‘data’ it just happens to match the so-called missing heat which is claimed by one of the paper’s authors, but which is also a speculative number based on a series of guesses and further modelled ‘data’. Further, no convincing mechanism for how it works is proposed. Don’t lecture me on the scientific method again while you don’t see why this would give pause to suspect at the very least confirmation bias.’
    ================

    • ‘at the very least’. I’m reminded of Pekka’s desire that the pure atmospheric sciences must be free to follow curiosity.
      ============

  40. re Bob’s list, say, don’t overlook _
    Lewandowsky and Cook.

    http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/28/lewandowsky-doubles-down/#more-17385

  41. David L. Hagen

    Does TSI modulate ocean-atmospheric meridional heat transport?
    David Springer cites Soon & Legates and notes:
    More Evidence of a Sun-Climate Connection
    there is empirical evidence of a simultaneous increase in poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport during the most recent warming period since the mid-1970s (aka the Great Pacific Climate Shift). This paper argues that TSI directly modulates ocean–atmospheric meridional heat transport.
    Solar irradiance modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: Empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales, Willie Soon and David R. Legates. PDF . . .
    Another thought that has occurred to me is that climate models overestimate global warming but they underestimate Arctic melting. Could both failures be due to underestimating the response of meridional heat transfer from the equator to the poles?

    • David L. Hagen

      correction: that citation was by David Stockwell at Niche Modeling (not David Springer)

    • David Hagen, That hits the nail right on the head. Changes in merdional transport can have impacts of 3.2 C on “global” average temperature and zonal changes about 0.6 C degrees.

      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009PA001809/abstract

    • David L. Hagen

      Global Ocean 3D geostrophic circulation
      Ocean thermal models would likely strongly benefit from the latest Global Ocean 3D geostrophic circulation model Surcouf3D.
      A new estimate of the global 3D geostrophic ocean circulation based on satellite data and in-situ measurements Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography Volumes 77–80, 15 November 2012, Pages 70–81

      A new estimate of the Global Ocean 3D geostrophic circulation from the surface down to 1500 m depth (Surcouf3D) has been computed for the 1993–2008 period using an observation-based approach that combines altimetry with temperature and salinity through the thermal wind equation. The validity of this simple approach was tested using a consistent dataset from a model reanalysis. Away from the boundary layers, errors are less than 10% in most places, which indicate that the thermal wind equation is a robust approximation to reconstruct the 3D oceanic circulation in the ocean interior. . . .
      Finally a 15 years long time series of monthly estimates of the AMOC was computed. The AMOC strength has a mean value of 16 Sv with an annual (resp. monthly) standard deviation of 2.4 Sv (resp. 7.1 Sv) over the 1993–2008 period. The time series, characterized by a strong variability, shows no significant trend.

    • David L. Hagen

      Fred H. Haynie shows evidence for arctic ice pulsation modulating the polar temperatures, meridonal current temperatures and latitudinal CO2 fluctuations. Applying Surcouf3D and coupling with TSI, clouds/cosmic rays, global optical depth, and latitudinal anthropogenic CO2, could quantify and clarify the temperature/CO2 lead/lag and magnitude.

    • David L. Hagen

      Fred H. Haynie posted:Quantifying the Anthropogenic Contribution to the Global Background Level of Atmospheric CO2
      He shows anthropogenic component of CO2 is about 6.5% in 2007.

    • David Springer

      The failure seems to be not understanding that northern sea ice is like a thermostat in an automotive water cooling system. Energy enters the system mostly in the tropics equivalent to the engine in a car. Juice up the energy in the tropics (like stepping on the gas pedal) and the tropics don’t get much warmer just as the engine doesn’t get much warmer. A small increase in water temperature opens up the thermostat so more warm water moves from heat source to heat sink and the temperature rise is limited.

      The consequence of not knowing it works this way is thinking the engine will overheat.

      It almost seems like it was designed to work that way, eh Hagen? But that would be a crazy thing to think because everything around us that wasn’t engineered by a human wasn’t engineered at all regardless of appearances. ;-)

      • David L. Hagen

        Springer
        Great comparison of opening/closing the valve.
        Good insight into detecting design.

  42. “However the big issue is whether we can infer reliable global trends from the reanalysis”

    ♫ Gon use my my imagination ♫

    Andrew

    • BA, you are the biggest Pretender on this commenting area. You are a fake skeptic through and through, not able to lift a finger and provide one bit of pertinent technical analysis. So underpowered that you can’t even achieve a mention on the list of climate clowns. To get on there you actually have to volunteer something resembling science.

      You are special, so special.
      Gack, you belong to the Lush Rimbaugh hall of shame for misappropriation.

  43. A fan of *MORE* discourse

    BREAKING SCIENTIFIC NEWS  of sea-level observations that support Trenberth’s deep-ocean heat-balance analysis …

    Earth Hits Giant Speed Bump
    of Accelerated Sea Level Rise-Rate
    Consonant with Trenberth’s Warming

    The Earth is warming which is driving the ongoing thermal expansion of sea water and the melt of land-based ice.

    Since mid-2011 a giant “speed bump” has been encountered. In roughly the last two years the global oceans have risen approximately 20 millimetres (mm), or 10 mm per year. This is over three times the rate of sea level rise during the time of satellite-based observations (currently 3.18 mm per year), from 1993 to the present.

    Sea level is already committed to rise many metres over the coming centuries because of the concentration of greenhouse gases humans have put into the atmosphere.

    This uphill road to higher sea level is bound to be long and lumpy one — with many potholes and speed bumps along the way.

    Conversely (of course!) a sustained fall in sea-level — from colder water and/or polar ice accumulation — would support skeptical claims that the observed planetary warming is transient and reversible, and (in particular) that the deep-ocean warming that Trenberth reports cannot be real, and in particular, cannot contribute to sea-level rise.

    But that is not the sobering reality that Nature is showing us, eh? What Nature is showing us is simply this:

    •  James Hansen’s 1981 scientific world-view is broadly correct, and
    •  Michael Mann’s observational hockey-stick is soberingly real, and
    •  Pope Francis’ long-term ecological concerns are morally justified.

    So it’s not complicated, eh Climate Etc skeptics?

    Specific Conclusion  In regard to the question that Judith Curry asked — Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat? — the sustained (and now-accelerating) global sea-level rise-rate observed by satellite altimetry affirms the answer “yes”.

    Broad Conclusion  Climate-change denialists are willfully ignoring a vast forest of solid climate-change science — a forest that is ever-growing — while cherry-picking individual trees in service of smearing/scorning/astroturfing demagoguery!

    Prediction  In the long run, demagogic denialism falls to sustained scientific commitment.

    \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

    • Actually it is the other way around. I was looking at this earlier this week.
      From mid-2010 until mid-2011 there was a dip in sea levels world wide. I had a look at the Gulf of Mexico, and the dip is there also, but a bit earlier. The Gulf didn’t have a big change in temperature during this period.
      What caused this gravitational anomaly in sea levels is really interesting.

    • Your physically mixed hot poker analogy is flawed Fan. The physical mixing mechanism is already operating on the poker in the 400 watt oven, turning this up to 401 or 401.6 watts cannot alter the existing mixing mechanism much.

      • He knows that. Whenever he cannot disprove a point he attacks the person as a denier, cherry-picker, conspiracy theorist, fool, ideologue or just a liar, and then gives links to non-standard mathematical descriptions of completely irrelevant systems.
        Trenberth has CO2 driven added IR generating heat faster at 7-300m, than at 300-0m.
        Physically impossible, hence mixing by quantum gravity waves.

  44. Are climatists even telling us the truth? Whom shall we believe, numerologists drawing government paychecks who cannot even admit the effect of solar activity on the Earth? The Sun and ENSO activity explain all of the climate change that we have observed so far and volcanic activity has a stronger correlation with the Earth’s climate than CO2.

    • Rule of thumb, a trustworthy scientist who says things along the lines of:-
      we don’t really know
      we suspect
      my view is
      it is reasonable to conclude
      generally speaking
      it is consistent with

      • We should give points for scholarly linguistic gymnastics–e.g., what would you give this example of cerebral contortionism, as follows:

        “Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it does, which has implications for seasonal predictions.”

        I’d say bonus points for the difficulty factor of cutting through the systemic obfuscation and filleting the jumbo to get to the meat of the matter.

  45. Lauri Heimonen

    Judith Curry:

    ”I’m bowing to pressure to prepare a post on a current science topic that people seem to want to talk about. This topic refers to Kevin Trenberth’s infamous statement in the CRU emails:

    ‘The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.’”

    The ‘travesty’ will be removed as one understand that there is no dominating warming caused by human CO2 emissions!

    I regard as necessary to express a pragmatic synthesis of mine own on the cause of recent global warming: 1) the believed role of human CO2 emissions as dominating factor even on the recent global warming is indistinguishable, and 2) the only working solution of alternatives scrutinized by me is to learn to adapt ourselves to threats of natural climate changes and weather events.

    It is really nonsense to express any climate sensivity based on human CO2 emissions and even not on any total increase of CO2 in atmosphere:

    a) Only natural global warming has been observed in reality.

    b) Even influence of any total increase of CO2 content in atmosphere can not have been observed to control the recent warming in reality; the increases of global CO2 content have proved to follow warming and not vice versa.

    c)Any anthropogenic share in the recent increase of CO2 content in atmosphere can not be empirically found. That makes the polemics on climate sensitivity be even more useless.

    The total solar irradiance maintains the global temperature. In addition to this, certain other natural issues have an effect on an oscillating or otherwise changing level of temperature. Further, UN politicians have determined IPCC to assess a scientific background of the recent warming believed to be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. On the basis of climate models adopted by IPCC there has only been assessed what kind of assumptions is needed so that the recent warming might be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, for now there is not any proper evidence available for the believed manmade warming: the increases of CO2 content in atmosphere follow natural warming of sea surface waters – especially on the areas of sea surface CO2 sinks – in which a share of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is only about 4 % at the most.

    I agree with Nicola Scafetta; http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/10/new-perspectives-on-climate-sensitivity/#comment-302614 :

    ‘Just a short comment on Tung and Zhou’s paper where they say:

    “For the first half of the 20th century, the solar contribution to the linear trend was less than 10%. It does not support the much larger role (>50%) for the Sun in the observed warming, obtained by Scafetta and West by attributing early 20th-century warming to solar forcing.”

    This is non-sense.

    – – –

    In my recent publication that Tung and Zhou does not cite, I provide evidences that the natural oscillations of the climate system such as the quasi 60-year oscillation of the AMO index is a typical astronomical/solar oscillation. Thus, the origin itself of the AMO oscillation (as well as many other climatic oscillations) is very likely due to solar activity.’

    As to an applicable solution to the recent climate problems, both politicians and scientists should at least understand that, according to findings in reality, the anthropogenic CO2 emissions do not dominate the global warming: even the recent increase of CO2 content has followed natural warming and not vice versa; e.g. comment http://judithcurry.com/2011/08/04/carbon-cycle-questions/#comment-198992 etc. Concerning the cutting of manmade CO2 emissions, any curtailment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, in order to control global warming, does not work. The strategy based on the curtailment ought to be replaced by a really working strategy e.g by adaptations to natural climate changes and weather events which pragmatically will be learned to be regarded as threatening. Even, instead of manmade warming, all the investigation resources available should be focused on these threats duly enough. This concerns AR5, too. Though there the adaptation may be duly emphasized, scientists of IPCC still seem, without any proper evidence, to believe in anthropogenic warming as a kind of amplifier of natural climate and weather threats.

    Willb’s comment ”- – – when the sun goes down in the evening, the temperature always seems to drop” http://judithcurry.com/2013/02/13/the-horsemeat-argument/#comment-296286 ” includes, in all the simplicity, an essential and easily understandable key for the influence of the solar irradiance on the Earth temperature, on both cooling and warming. It is easy to understand that this is valid on dayly and seasonal changes of local solar irradiance. Also this concerns the global temperature depending on changes in total solar irradiance to Earth, which can be caused by solar activity changes and orbital reasons. During eras longer than those, e.g. tens and hundreds of million years, plate tectonics, i.e. continuous movements of continents in relation to oceans, can even influence trends of the global temperature more permanently than the shorter ones above. For instance therefore during last 50 million years the trend of global temperature has been decreasing although the activity of Sun has had a mild increasing trend; ocean currents made the global temperature change. In addition to the decreasing trend of global temperature stated above, a striking example on that is the appearance of glaciers on the Antartic Continent and on nordern continents.

    Although, in any case, the global temperature is dominated by the total solar irradiance, a variation of the temperature level is mainly dominated by different cloud cover changes.The mechanisms of those complicated processes are still being clarified. The main factors influencing seem to be relative humidity as driving force and cosmic rays as catalyzing factors for nucliation of cloud drops.

    http://judithcurry.com/2012/11/17/week-in-review-111712/#comment-268811
    http://judithcurry.com/2013/02/04/sensitivity-about-sensitivity/#comment-292640
    http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/16/hansen-on-the-standstill/#comment-287036

  46. Chief Hydrologist

    Evaporation rate decreases as you move away from equator.

    http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter05/Images/Fig5-9.htm

    Salinity increases moving away from the equator only until the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone where precipitation is greater than evaporation. From ITCZ to the poles precipitation continues to outpace evaporation.

    http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter06/Images/Fig6-5.htm

    Chief Kangaroo Skippy Ellison has it exactly backwards. No surprise there of course.

    ‘Tropical water is generally saltier than that found further north, as it has evaporated more, and this is the water that is drawn northward by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation – in the present climate, this mechanism becomes a self sustaining pump – the more strongly deep water is formed, the more salty water is drawn to the north to replace it.’ http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/news/press/faq-frequently-asked-questions/what-is-the-gulf-stream.html

    We are talking of course about the Gulf Stream and not global averages – water which because it is still warm continues to evaporate providing warmth and moisture to northern climes.

  47. First, a summary of what climate feedbacks are, by definition: In response to a surface temperature change, other changes in the climate system (clouds, etc.) can either magnify (positive feedback) or reduce (negative feedback) the original temperature change. The single largest feedback is negative: the increase in infrared energy lost to space as temperature increases. This so-called “Planck effect” is what stabilizes the climate system against runaway change. ~Dr. Roy Spencer

    So… reasonable people have made some headway. Surely, no hysterical AGW fearmonger other than Al Gore (in the real world outside the dropout factories we call the public education system) still maintains the delusion of runaway global warming.

  48. Chief Hydrologist

    “heat is only able to travel through the skin layer by way of conduction”

    That is quite wrong. The skin layer is REMOVED by evaporation exposing warmer water beneath it. In the tropics the skin layer is removed about 40 times a day i.e. about 40 millimeters daily is lost to evaporation.

    WebHubTelescope and Chief Hydrologist are dumb and dumber. I’m not sure which is which but neither has a clue and just make stuff up as they go along.

    One wonders what happened to springers whines about a lack of moderation?

    Evaporation at Darwin peaks on average in November at 250mm for the month. 40mm/day seems vey high.

    Regardlesss the quote was from sceptical science – http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=939 – what I said was… ‘not quite right…but closer than webby… The cool skin is not permanent because waves are caused by friction of the wind on water. This imparts momentum and causes the water to rotate – like a roller – and this transmits the energy of the wave forward. So the surface is constantly being turbulently mixed to depth. As warm water comes to the suface it again loses IR in the top 100 microns or so. It is a dynamic and ongoing process.

    Oh – and energy – quite a lot – is lost by evaporation as well.’

    The bottom line is that diffusion of heat from the atmosphere to the oceans is not a physically realistic interpretation of ocean energy dynamics.

    The cool skin is an artifact of net loss of energy in the IR from the top 100 microns or so of the surface. When the water in the turbulent mixing zone is exposed on the surface the skin cools at the rate of the quantum effects – effectively instantaneous. The skin is replaced at the rotational velocity of the particles in the waves – much slower. So this cool skin is always cool. Does evaporation play a part – in exposing warmer water – as molecules gain sufficient energy to leave the surface? Yes – as does the shaking loose from the surface of water micro droplets as opposed to water vapour.

    Are springer and webby peas in a pod? Undoubtedly – simplistiic and bombastic with little knowledge of any relevant Earth science.

    • The Skeptical Warmist

      Chief said:

      “The bottom line is that diffusion of heat from the atmosphere to the oceans is not a physically realistic interpretation of ocean energy dynamics.”

      _______

      Simply and well stated, but sad that it would need to be stated. The net flow of energy on Earth is from ocean to atmosphere, and not the other way around.

      The NET flow of energy on this planet that is covered 70% with water is:

      Sun to Ocean to Atmosphere to Space. This flow is important to keep in mind, for if the oceans are gaining energy over some longer (several decades) timeframe, than only two possibilities exist:

      1) More solar energy is entering the oceans
      2) Less energy is leaving the oceans

      In regards to #1 above several factors could be at play, including increased solar output, reduced cloudiness at certain levels, and over the very long term of course Milankovitch cycles. There is no indication of a steadily increasing solar output over the past 40+ years, and certainly quite the opposite over the past 10 years as ocean heat content has continued to rise. There is some indication of reduced cloudiness (very slight) and not enough to account for the spike in ocean heat content over the past decade.

      In regards to #2 above, several factors could also be at play. We have been in the cool phase of the PDO such that less energy is leaving the Pacific (i.e. cooler SST’s), but the second factor is an altered thermal gradient between ocean and space such that the flow of energy from ocean to space is reduced even though the amount of solar energy entering the ocean is roughly the same. This would be a indirect effect. Of course, the accumulation of GH gases in the atmosphere is exactly what it would take to reduce the thermal gradient between ocean and space, and a very nice piece of the approximately 1 w/m^2 TOA imbalance (Trenberth’s missing heat) can be found in the rising heat content of the ocean down to 2000 meters, with even more likely to be found at deeper levels as several studies showing that even deeper water is warming as well, such as the deep water off of Antarctica.

      Finally, consistent with the rising ocean heat content is the reduction of the Arctic sea ice, especially the volume, with the bulk of the volume of that ice existing below the water line. As the oceans warm, the ice melts faster than climate models have been able to accurately model and my strong suspicion is that the advection of the increasingly warming ocean waters and the resultant effect on sea ice has not been accurately taken into account in GCM’s.

      • “Sun to Ocean to Atmosphere to Space. This flow is important to keep in mind, for if the oceans are gaining energy over some longer (several decades) timeframe, than only two possibilities exist:”

        I would add atmosphere to land to space. Land amplification of ocean energy is a large part of the uncertainty. As long as the land masses can increases stored heat capacity through melting ice and soil moisture, average surface temperature can increase. That thermal mass, soil moisture mainly, appears to be under-estimated.

        http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/kirsten-findells-thesis-papers

        Just like there is a deep convection SST region, soil moisture also provide a convective triggering potential. Yet another thermostat.

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Captn. Dallas,

        Pardon my dimness, but what exactly do you mean by “land amplification of ocean energy”. Not sure what would be meant by “amplification” of energy in general as far as that goes. Signals can be amplified and energy can be concentrated or diffused, but how do you amplify ocean energy?

        Also, the transport (not amplification) of ocean energy from ocean to land via the atmosphere of course requires energy in the form of direct solar radiation or indirect solar radiation that has previously been absorbed by the atmosphere. Thus, one gram of ocean water that has been previously warmed via sunlight to a certain temperature, might then, through the addition of more energy via sunlight and evaporation, be transported via the atmosphere to fall as snow or rain on some distant mountain peak far from the ocean. This one gram of water might end up back in the ocean, be frozen for a longer period as glacial ice, etc.

      • Skeptical, Manabe had a fairly nice diagram of the hydrological cycle. Basically, the oceans produce the majority of the 88 Wm-2 latent energy from 70% of the surface which has a rough specific heat capacity of 4 J/kg. Dry soil has a rough specific heat capacity of 1.5 J/kg and wet it can approach 3 J/kg. That is roughly the land amplification, moist energy transferred from the oceans nearly doubles the specific heat capacity.

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Captn. Dallas,

        Certainly moist soil holds more energy than dry soil due to waters great heat capacity, but I’m not sure what this has to do with ocean energy “amplification”. There’s no energy being amplified, but only moved around in various forms in the Earth system, whether it be in the ocean, in the soil, in the atmosphere or in the biosphere. Increase GH gases, and less of that energy, in whatever form, can escape to space from the system, with the ocean being the primary source of stored solar energy on Earth.

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Chief Hydro,

        We need to look at the full picture. If you agree that the TOA imbalance is roughly 1 w/m^2, and if you agree that the oceans have likely stored some of that imbalance, then the full picture is simply asking how and where (at what depths?). I’m sure I differ from you in that I think that Trenberth and others who’ve been studying ocean warming trends are likely on to solving at least some of the “missing heat” issue. More interesting to me is how much of the ocean warming is due to natural variation (i.e. PDO, AMO, etc.) and how much is due to increasing GH gases.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing increases by about 0.01 W/m^2/year. All things being equal it causes an increse in temperature and some feedbacks. One of these is the Planck feedback which increases emissions to approximately the fourth power of temperature – reestablishing a conditional equilibrium with incoming energy at a higher temperature. So this 1W/m^2 is not an actual radiant imbalance at any time but an estimate of the forcing increase over a long time that resulted in the temperature increase. Warning – real data follows.

        http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/29/has-trenberth-found-the-missing-heat/#comment-306903

        http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/29/has-trenberth-found-the-missing-heat/#comment-306904

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Chief Hydro said:

        “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing increases by about 0.01 W/m^2/year”

        _____
        Given that the rate of GHG concentration increases in the atmosphere has been growing, even if the 0.01 w/m^2 figure was once accurate (sources and how many years ago please?), it certainly is not a static number at all and I would doubt it being accurate as of today.

        If the 1 w/m^2 TOA imbalance is accurate, and if the majority of the imbalance is not due to natural variations, but is anthropogenic in origin (i.e. by altering GHG concentrations), and if the majority of that increase has occurred since about 1960 or so, then that would mean that we’ve been averaging more around 0.02 w/m^2 per year of increase in that imbalance, with probably lower amounts in the 1960’s and 1970’s and higher amounts since the year 2000, and thus the sharp upward spike in ocean heat content since 2000.

      • The recent Hansen 2013 ERL paper I linked here somewhere puts the current value at 0.04 W/m2 per year, which is more like it.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Which forcings do you want – http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif

        These are readily available and you do not need to rely on pious calc’s in the comment box of CE.

        The increase in forcing has been roughly linear since at least the 1960s.

        If the missing heat was seen in CERES – it seems a trifle disengenuous not to look at the source.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        It seems also to be a ittle suspicioue that the big jump at the XBT and ARGO splice occured without an obvious source of energy.

      • Skeptical, ” There’s no energy being amplified, but only moved around in various forms in the Earth system, …”

        If the moving results in a greater impact that expected, I consider that amplification. Part of that amplification over land is due to increases in GHGs, part due to changes in moisture/ice and part due to the longer term ocean oscillations shifting energy toward the northern hemisphere. The GHG portion actually makes a good reference to start figuring magnitude and attribution by comparing zonal “sensitivities”.

        The amplification due to changes in meridional and zonal flux caused by ocean pseudo-cycles is the part I find most interesting.

      • David Springer

        A critical element missing from the sun->ocean->atmosphere->space energy flow is that ocean->atmosphere flows divide between latent and radiative and latent is the path of least resistance. The greenhouse effect is radiative. Additional greenhouse gases restrict the radiative flow of heat from surface to atmosphere. But this is less effective when latent is the path of least resistance and there is water free to evaporate on the surface.

        This is analogous to a basin with two drainholes where one is twice the size of the other. Over the ocean the latent drain hole is twice the size of the radiative drain. If you put a restriction in the smaller hole it doesn’t decrease total flow as much as putting a restriction in the larger hole.

        Over dry land the situation changes. There are two holes again but now they are radiative and conductive and radiative is the path of least resistance. So if you restrict the larger hole total flow is significantly reduced. The response is different. Where on the ocean evaporation simply increases with no increase in water temperature (insensible heat) over land the surface temperature rises which forces more energy through both radiative and conductive paths.

        Failure to disciminate between land and water response to mid-infrared illumination is huge impediment to proper understanding of what’s actually happening and leads to predictions that 15+ year-long hiatuses in global warming won’t happen due to natural variation if CO2 concentration continues rising the whole time. Oopsie. We seem to have misplaced some heat and it’s a travesty we can’t find it. I can tell you where it can be found. It’s in sphere surrounding the earth with a radius of about 50 light years. :-)

      • Chief Hydrologist

        This is something tragic/comic in davo’s courageous but simplistic narrative. Long ago and in a galaxy far, far away we all knew that the global average flows of energy from the surface was about 25% evaporation, 17% net IR up and 5% convection. IR up and IR down are quite substantial so this is a defining feature of the coupled atmosphere/surface system. If the temperature of the water increases then evaporation might increase – it is a complex function of wind speed, the relative humidity of the atmosphere, insolation and water temperature. IR up will increase by T to the 4th power. Convection will increase linearly (?). Latent heat becomes sensible heat at the lifted condensation point – some 2 to 14 km high but mostly at the lower levels. It depends on lapse rates and relative humidity.

        Over land we have something called evaporatranspiration. Very few areas are vegetation free deserts. Evapotranspiration depends on the water deficit at locations – as well as these other factors of wind speed etc. In rainforest evapotranspiration can be twice the open water evaporation potential. In temperate grasslands it can be 0.6 in winter and 0.9 in summer of open water evaporation. On tundra it can be zero in winter and substantial in summer.

        About 90% of the moisture in the air is from evaporation and 10% from evapotranspiration. This travels over land and ocean before dropping out as rain or snow after about 4 days on average.

        Both water vapour and carbon dioxide – and both have increased in the troposphere – will decrease the mean free photon path in the atmosphere so that more energy is retained in a warmer atmosphere. A defining feature of the coupled climate system – energy moving in the IR between ocean and atmosphere will result in a warmer ocean.

        The only real way that the planet cools or warms is from the energy imbalance at top of the atmosphere. If energy in exceeds energy out then the planet warms and vice versa. One way of moving the planet to a higher energy state is with greenhouse gases. Another is with increased TSI. A third – in the short term – is reduced cloud cover or increased cloud height.

        It is very simple at TOA – one or more of these dominated the energy budget of the planet over the first decade of the 21st century. We can expect about 0.1 W/m^2 from greenhouse gases – and about -0.1 W/m^2 from sulphides. TSI changed by about -0.25W/m^2 (effective) in the relevant period. But the ocean seems to have warmed in ARGO – which is all I pay attention to – by 0.55 W/m^2. Hmm – wonder what else changed?

    • David Springer

      Chief Hydrologist | March 30, 2013 at 12:57 pm | Reply

      “One wonders what happened to springers whines about a lack of moderation?”

      Here’s what I just wrote:

      WebHubTelescope and Chief Hydrologist are dumb and dumber. I’m not sure which is which but neither has a clue and just make stuff up as they go along.

      Here’s what you wrote that was moderated:

      Spr..ger is profoundly ignorant and proud of it. He is the king of the totlly irrelevant in a style of self aggrandising, bombastic, tedious, repetitive nonsense. Who am I supposed to believe? Some dimwited, obsolete gamer with a compulsion to be the smartest dips…t in the room or the APS, The Royal Society, the NAS, etc. Utterly pathetic almost covers it.”

      Do you understand the difference? No, probably not.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Sure I understand the difference. Mine has style and flair – verbal dexterity and creativity in the context of a nice little flame. I maintain that truth is a defence.

        Yours is a tedious and juvenile insult at about the standard of a six year old.

      • David Springer

        No. Yours is a flaming rant. Mine is a passing reference to a 1994 comedy “Dumb and Dumber” starring Jim Carry and Jeff Daniels. I knew you didn’t know the difference.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Sure I know the difference. Mine is a reference to the ‘smartest dipsh_t in the room syndrome’. A faith in ones ability to pedanticlly and trivially lecture and harangue and the willingness to shout down other voices using insults and bombast.

        Yours is a cultural reference that we all understand – that is intended to insult and manages only to be a tired old cliche.

    • according to Pekka one cannot have IR absorbed by water and have that same water emitting IR at the same time

      http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/29/has-trenberth-found-the-missing-heat/#comment-307227

      That’s modern physics for you.

  49. Chief Hydrologist

    ‘WebHubTelescope | March 29, 2013 at 8:19 pm |

    “Chief Hydrologist | March 29, 2013 at 7:31 pm |

    It certainly is sloppy thinking we have come to expect from webby. The rediation from the atmosphere is all in that mid range IR that doesn’t penetrate more than 100 or so microns – it is typically outweighed by IR losses from the same thin slice of surface water producing a very thin cold layer on the surface. It is called a skin but is in reality simply a product of the net loss of IR which proceeds faster than the mixing that is constantly changing the water at the surface. All the heat going into the oceans is from the sun.”

    This is a completely misguided set of half-truths coming from the schools of FUD and FOO.

    if you could find one reference that demonstrates how a mid-range IR photon can directly activate a water molecule to vaporize from the surface, I would be surprised. The photon first turns into thermal energy, as e,g. a vibrational mode, and from there can effectively diffuse to deeper water via eddy currents.

    I don’t understand why the Chief always wants to disregard conventional physics. Could it be because the powers of FOO and FUD are too tempting?’

    There are far more photons in the IR spectrum leaving the top 100 microns or so than entering it. So the ocean is on average cooling by net IR emissions up. This is understood even by sceptical science – http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=939 – but not it appears by webby who insists on his own physics.

    • David Springer

      Chief Hydrologist | March 30, 2013 at 1:15 pm | Reply

      “There are far more photons in the IR spectrum leaving the top 100 microns or so than entering it.”

      Technically true.

      “So the ocean is on average cooling by net IR emissions up.”

      Not on average. It is cooled to some small extent by IR emission everywhere.

      The lion’s share of heat loss is latent.

      Again, crack open a textbook on the subject.

      http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter05/Images/Fig5-7.htm

      Note QLW (Longwave heat loss) is negative for all latitudes.

      Note QL (latent heat loss) is over twice QLW between 30S and 30N and approximately equal elsewhere but elsewhere the numbers for both become so small in comparison as to become negligible.

      In fact everything in the global heat budget becomes trivial outside the area between 40S and 40N latitude.

      I didn’t see where webby indicated that ocean is warmed by the atmosphere but QS (sensible heat loss) is trivial everywhere and it’s definitely negative everywhere meaning there is no net heating from atmosphere to surface at all and very little conductive heating of the atmosphere from the surface with what little there is generally being in desert areas which puts a couple barely noticeable bumps in the QS curve around 40N and 60N.

      Fercrisakes familiarize yourself with this chit before writing about it.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        While it is generally true that the oceans are warmer than the atmosphere and net IR up is about 17% of the incoming energy at toa – with evaporation at about 25% and convection at 5% – it remains true that certain atmospheric inversions can in theory locally change the picture. It is for this reason that I said average to account for exceptions to the rule. This is part and parcel of the sort of precision in language that is the natural mode of both poets and scientists. Dogmatic and inflexible statements of a global truth are unlikely to be ever correct – except perhaps in a trivial sense – in a system as far flung and complex as climate. Quoting averages as a proof of average conditions is in fact as trivial as it comes. But we are used to that from you.

        The significance of the high latitudes is that energy out exceeds energy in – as energy is transported north and south from the equatorial region. There are far from trivial implications for climate in this most basic process. The numbers are far from trivial as well – which you have obviously not got from eyeballing a single graph of derived averages – which I have seen but not thought to post as some sort of fundamental insight. These are things that are known to anyone with any depth in these issues. They are starting points for neophytes and not any basis of startling conclusions. Your points are trivial and your ideas superficial.

      • Springer points to this:

        “Again, crack open a textbook on the subject.

        http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter05/Images/Fig5-7.htm

        The figure says essentially what I am saying, that there is both outgoing IR and latent flux. And this means that some of the excess resides in the top layers and diffuses its way to lower layers, just as everyone from Hansen to Balmaseda have demonstrated.

        This is reflected by the simple uncertainty-quantified model of thermal diffusion that I show here:
        http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html

      • Chief Hydrologist

        I have ‘cracked’ this textbook. As I say it is a place for beginners – and not anything we might see as new or startling.

        But what does it mean to you? There are many things to read into it – including energy transport from the equator towards the poles if you understand what it means.

        But essentially it just shows a global balance in energy in and energy out accounted for by latitude. If you integrate under the Qsw curve it is equal to the area under the negative curves. Qsw is the shortwave hitting the surface – about 50% of incoming energy. The negative curves are convection, evaporation and conduction – energy leaving the surface.
        So all the energy entering the ocean is in the higher frequencies. Well – overwhelmingly so. This is where the heat comes form.

        Hansen’s model was ‘box model’ – alternatively a black box model as it is sometimes called in Earth sciences. These do not represent real physical processes and are not intended to. It is done because the real processes are too complex. We might have data from which we can estimate a first order rate constant for pollutant removal for instance. This covers amulitude of sins but at least gives a number you can play with in a simple formula. I can for instance take a literature value and apply it in a different context – assuming that it has a wide error in the new context.

  50. The government-education global warming industry has become a slave to its own calcified expectations of humanities’ inability to overcome adversity through the power of personal liberty and individual achievement. Our school teachers have become impoverished in mind and spirit and masters of nothing of any value to the society that pays their wages.

  51. Chief Hydrologist

    Springer sez:

    “There is no infrared heating of the ocean. It’s heated by shortwave.”

    Obviously, the balance is not strictly between between up and down infrared radiation, but rather the balance is between downward visible shorter wavelength radiation, versus upward net infrared and latent heat fluxes. The word NET is very important as infrared will back-reflect and re-emit as many times as the characteristics of the medium demand. If there is difference in the net, then the heat will diffuse downward, as nature abhors arbitrary order.

    Is this argument so hard that you need an EE PhD to help you understand it?

    Springer, we may need another treatise on your life history to help explain to us what you do or do not know. webby

    No it is not an argument I can follow. Net IR is up – everywhere on land and sea. It has to be because SW is down – it heats the surface which cools to the atmosphere and space. I don’t know how this is even an argument. Baby physics for a site supposed to be a grown up site disccussing climate science.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Diagram_showing_the_Earth%27s_energy_budget,_which_includes_the_greenhouse_effect_(NASA).png

    • Chief, we all know that you are continuing with your pranking attempts to manipulate the entire discourse. It doesn’t work when you are up against the preponderance of physical arguments that are out there.

      The premise is clear that a positive thermal forcing function is being applied to the surface region of the ocean, and we are watching the excess heat diffuse downward.

      We have a nice formulation for the one-dimensional (downward) spatio-temporal response here:
      http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/2013/03/ocean-heat-content-model.html
      which incidentally is free from any need to invoke the math of chaotic systems which would cause the Chief to hyperventilate over.

      So when is the auditing supposed to begin? We are waiting….

      • Chief Hydrologist

        We all know nothing of the sort. What is known I am a somewhat serious person with a modicum of knowledge in the Earth sciences – and that you are a self agrandising maniac with delusions of relevance and imaginary physics.

        Is this about the 20th time in this post you have linked to this nosensical formulation of heat flow from the atmosphere to the oceans?

        Certainly it is free of non-linear coupled chaotic systems. This is just one more area where you diverge from mainstream science into a fantasy world of your own.

        Your idea tells us less that we knew before – we lose information that is in the data on ocean heat content. The auditng is over – your idea is worthless, unphysical and trivial.

      • dennis adams

        Sorry for being cranky. I have been following this issue for 3 years and with absolutely no scientific background I felt both sides have demonstrated some semblance of scientific understanding. However, this thread has crystalized for me the concept of the unknown unknowns and illustrated how little our pea sized brains really know. At last count the number of unknown unknowns must be at least 4,378. And as these kinds of debates are played out it, seems to be increasing exponentially. I feel like both sides are just flailing away in a black hole trying to reduce infinite variables into a blackboard exhibition of equations. The issue of climatology just got much more complex for me.

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        WHT,

        I certainly agree that the oceans are gaining energy and certainly think that increasing GHG’s play a big role in that, I can’t quite get my mind around the notion that somehow the laws of thermodynamics would be changed such that heat would flow from atmosphere to ocean. While the result would be the same, it is far more logical IMO in thinking that increased GHG reduce of rate of flow of energy from ocean to atmosphere to space, much like wearing a jacket doesn’t put energy back into your body, but simply reduces how fast your body loses energy to the space outside your jacket.

      • dennis adams, this article has crystallized one of the main topics that is actually quite simple. The ocean has been gaining energy at a rate of 1 W/m2 over the last decade, and people are pondering where this extra energy came from. It looks a lot like the expected effect from adding CO2.

      • dennis adams

        All of the debate and faux equations tell me otherwise. I think you and others are afraid to admit how little you truly understand and are trying to rationalize with these off the shelf explanations. I bet in 100 years all the scientists will laugh at your statement and its naivete.

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Jim D.,

        If the TOA imbalance is roughly 1 w/m^2 (and I think that’s a pretty good estimate), then I don’t think it’s been demonstrated that that full imbalance is going into the oceans. We know some has gone into the atmosphere, some has gone into the cryosphere, some into the biosphere, etc. I think the charts that compare ocean heat content versus atmospheric warming do a good job at giving us a pretty good feel for the relative ratios of how much has gone into the oceans versus the other areas:

        http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=46

        So yes, the bulk has gone into the oceans (with strong related effects to areas like Arctic sea ice), but not 100% of the 1 w/m^2 TOA imbalance.

      • TSW, the 1 W/m2 number I mentioned is only from calculating the increase in OHC in the last decade. Coincidentally it matches the imbalance, and the surface temperature hasn’t risen either, so in simple terms we can say the imbalance went into the ocean instead of being offset by any warming, just in this decade which is a special case. Some went into melting sea ice volume, in the tens of percent of the OHC amount by my reckoning. Some may also go into the land heating, but that has a much lower effective capacity on these time scale.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Dennis,

        The only way to make sense of things is data. Which is the correct data?

        Here is some ocean heat data from ARGO.

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/vonSchuckmannampLTroan2011-fig5PG_zpsee63b772.jpg.html?sort=3&o=4

        It shows a heat content increase equivalent to an increase in forcing of 0.55W/m^2.

        Here is CERES – showing trends – from BAMS which originated the idea of missing warmth. That is CERES was showing a warming trend but the heat as not apparent in the 0-700m ocean heat content.

        It shows outgoing infrared, reflected visible light and a net which is upward warming by convention. It suggests a cold bias in ARGO if anything but most of that was in less reflected shortwave = less cloud..

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Jim D.,

        I’d like to see how you calculated that, as other numbers would indicate something more like 0.5 w/m^2 of energy going into the oceans down to 2000 meters. But none the less, I don’t believe 100% of the TOA imbalance is going into the oceans as certainly temperatures in the atmosphere have been warmer over the past decade than any other decade on record and we’ve seen such a large loss of mass from Greenland, Antarctica, and of course, Arctic Sea ice, that some of the TOA imbalance must be going to effect these changes.

      • TSW, from the graph we see 15.e22 J added in the last decade. Divide this by 10 years (3.e8 s), and divide this by the surface area of the earth (4*pi*6370e3*6370e3) gives 1 W/m2.

      • JimD, If you picked 2000 to 2005 you could probably make that even bigger :)

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        Thanks Jim D. I’ll have to look at that more closely. Every study I’ve seen put the energy going into the top 2000m of the ocean far under 1 w/m^2, even over the past decade. Specifically, Levitus 2012 puts it at about 0.39 w/m^2 down to 2000m. We are talking somewhere around 0.5 x 10^22 joules per year being added to the top 2000 meters, which would be far less than 1 w/m^2 averaged over the planet by my and Levitus’ calculations.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        von Schuckmann and Le Troan 2011 – put it at 0.55 +/- 0.10 W/m^2 over their ARGO period.

      • “The premise is clear that a positive thermal forcing function is being applied to the surface region of the ocean, and we are watching the excess heat diffuse downward”

        Cool Web, so we would expect to have more heat the nearer we are to the source of the IR, so the top of the ocean will absorb heat before the water underneath, because that’s the way diffusion and causation are.

        However, the oceans at 700 to 300m are warming faster than the top 300-0m; if we take Treberth at his word.

        http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w318/DocMartyn/deepoceanJPEG_zpsc6585990.jpg

        So all Treberth has to explain is how heat, from damp atmospheric CO2,can get below 300m of sea water with interacting with this layer.

  52. A fan of *MORE* discourse

    Wagathon opines: “Our school teachers have become impoverished in mind and spirit and masters of nothing of any value to the society that pays their wages.”

    LOL … It’s mighty fun to notice that Wagathon and Wendell Berry agree entirely!

    As for “ossified” climate-change science, Wagathon’s spirits will be brightened by the recent inhomogeneous scientific opinion relating to climate-change!

    Summary of the Climate Dialogue
    on Arctic sea ice

    We are very glad that Walt Meier, Ron Lindsay and Judith Curry took up the challenge to engage with each other.

    The participants agree it is unlikely the contribution of greenhouse gases to the recent decline is lower than 30%. Curry even said she wouldn’t know any publishing climate scientist going lower than 30%. Curry proposed a range of 30 to 70% greenhouse gas contribution to the recent decline in sea ice extent. Her best estimate would be 50%. Lindsay agreed with this best estimate of 50% for extent. He added though that sea ice volume is his preferred metric because it shows less year to year variability. For sea ice volume he would go higher, say 70%. Meier proposed a smaller range of 50 to 70%.

    This is a healthy, diverse discourse, eh Wagathon?

    \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

    • Fan,
      Back on the argo system, vertical heat transport exchange, I have a question for you.
      It would help me if you could give your response.
      Thank you.

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      Chief Hydrologist “[condemns FOMD severely]”

      You are entirely correct to condemn me, Chief Hydrologist! Shame upon me for failing to recommend:

      Assessing the State of the Art
      of Ocean Internal Wave Research:
      Is There an Internal Wave Continuum
      in the Ocean?

      Matthew Alford and Jody Klymak (2008)

      Heavily studied in the 1970s and 1980s in part for their relevance to submarine detection and acoustic propagation, internal gravity waves are now of central interest in the physical oceanographic community for their role in global ocean energy cycles and mixing the oceans at great and shallow depths. Though the small time and space scales of internal waves may forever prevent their explicit resolution in global circulation models, their effects must be properly parameterized for reliable predictions of key quantities such as meridional heat transport.

      Wider appreciation of this literature definite will help Climate Etc readers to appreciate that climate-change science, in aggregate, has supplied a solidly affirmative answer to Judith Curry’s question-asked: Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

      ———————-
      Answer  Yes!!!
      ———————-

      Chief, your comments have been illuminating for everyone. Thank you, Chief Hydrologist!

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Chief Hydrologist

        Having worked as a coastal engineer – you will find that I understand something about waves. I find it more than a little tedious to be reminded again that turbulent eddies propagate both vertically and horizontally. Indeed from the seabed up as currents flow over an uneven seafloor.

        But the question – and it is not much of a question – concerned the direction of energy flow in the system.

  53. David Springer

    The Skeptical Warmist | March 30, 2013 at 2:24 pm |

    What’s this Gates? Decided to completely ditch any mention of your real name in your handle?

    Smart move! I would too if I were you.

    • The Skeptical Warmist

      I’ve no problem mentioning my “real” name. It simply depends on which computer/ipad I happen to be blogging from. The autofill from each have me as one or the other, and I’m frankly too lazy to worry about such trivial things. But glad you care!

      Your friend,

      R. Gates, Skeptical Warmist (and a rose by any other name)

      • David Springer

        Nice try but “Skeptical Warmist” all by itself is new.

        This is what you used in the past:

        The Skeptical Warmist (aka R. Gates) | November 30, 2012 at 1:27 am |

        So you changed from using “R.Gates” to “The Skeptical Warmist (aka R. Gates)” to now just “The Skeptical Warmist”.

        Whether this is accidental, on purpose, or even Freudian is a different question. There’s no question you ditched your real name with this latest handle.

      • The Skeptical Warmist

        David S,

        Except of course for this post from just last weekend where I blogged as R. Gates from a different computer:

        http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/22/open-thread-weekend-12/#comment-305561

        But of course, you’ll make up whatever fiction you care too. I’ve got no reason to hide or to really care what name I blog under, as those who know me (as proven by your keen observation) know exactly who R. Gates or the Skeptical Warmist is and that they are one in the same.

      • David Springer

        Fine. Then put (a.k.a. R. Gates) back in your handle like before and I’ll believe you don’t care. Otherwise your actions belie your words. [shrugs]

  54. Kind of a dumb question, but: Has the energy devoted to melting the ice been put into the equation? It would just disappear and not show up in the ocean.

    • The Skeptical Warmist

      Jim,

      Energy going into causing a net change to the cryosphere has absolutely been “put into the equation” in terms of calculation of Earth energy balance. By net change meaning the net volume of ice that is melted each year and is not seasonal (i.e. it never comes back). The three main areas on the planet that show a net change in the cyrosphere are of course Greenland, Arctic sea ice, and Antarctica. Other land glaciers globally are declining (though some are gaining some mass). Overall though, the energy going into the changing the cryosphere is tiny compared to the massive energy going into the oceans each year.

  55. David Springer

    The Skeptical Warmist | March 30, 2013 at 3:58 pm |

    “If the TOA imbalance is roughly 1 w/m^2 (and I think that’s a pretty good estimate),”

    It’s almost twice Hansen’s estimate.

    http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/27031/2011/acpd-11-27031-2011.html

    The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 ± 0.15 W m−2 during the 6-year period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change.

    • The Skeptical Warmist

      Others have made estimates as well and Hansen falls in the lower end of the range if you keep to his 0.59 number, but he’s getting closer if you accept his upper limit at around .74 w/m2. But if Hansen is correct, then Trenberth has found an even more significant part of that missing heat as did Levitus in his 2012 study which put about 0.39 w/m^2 going into the upper 2000 meters of the ocean.

      • David Springer

        Hansen/GISS appear to be the gold standard in TOA energy imbalance and I couldn’t find any other more recent estimates.

        Indeed, even the SS (skeptica science) who reliably produces the most favorable warmist spin on things displays a graph derived from Murphy 2009 which is in agreement with Hansen.

        http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Energy-Flow.gif

        Perhaps you could link to similar charts from reputable sources (I don’t consider SS reputable) that were published in a big name journal like Hansen’s was? Or perhaps you cannot. I’d bet on the latter because you have a history of just making things up but feel free to prove me wrong by posting corroboration.

    • Hansen blames the Arabs, Pinatubo and the deep solar minimum for the imbalance (read model error) in the energy accounts.

      The error in the PMOD data,suggest that the physics are broken ie surface magnetism,or the instrumental divergence in the minima sc22/23 was underestimated.

      The obvious problem is that the instrumentation error is the causative mechanism and it does seem to be the case and the 22/23 minimum is the same as 23/24.This increases the amplitude of the solar cycle and the accompanying uncertainty to> 1wm^2 at the TOA.

      http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.3077v1.pdf

    • Springer keeps on feeding us links that destroy his argument.
      I could take Hansen’s Figure 1b of effective forcing and use it in my formulation for diffusive response and essentially recreate Balmaseda’s curves. All I have to do is replace the analytical convolution I have spelled out here, with a numerical one and out pops the result.
      Pretty dang cool. Thanks mucho, Sarge Springer.

      And all this stuff that Captain and Chief talk about with respect to regional and chaotic effects is smokescreen in comparison to the significant macro effects such as CO2 or volcanic disturbances that tend to blanket the earth. This allows some of the simple uncertainty-quantified formulations that I have devised to work so well.

      Would a fake skeptic care? Probably not, as none of the skeptics want to think big picture science, but instead want to drive home the FOO and FUD.

      • I could take Hansen’s Figure 1b of effective forcing and use it in my formulation for diffusive response and essentially recreate Balmaseda’s curves.

        Oh dear look at the forcing for the Krakatoa excursion, now find the signal in the instrumental record it aint there.

      • Indeed, as I have said before, Pinatubo is a subtle effect: we can detect it. The 11-year solar cycle is a subtle effect: we can detect it. The CO2 effect is larger than both these: we can obviously also detect it and measure it as being larger. Arguments saying it is too chaotic to see anything ignore what we can see already.

      • Webster, ” CO2 or volcanic disturbances that tend to blanket the earth.” More like should blanket the Earth. Volcanic impact in the northern hemisphere is disproportionately larger. Doing “global” fits is just part of the process. Since the Atlantic SST has a good correlation with “global” land only and OHC you can start focusing on the longer term oscillations using CO2 and volcanic forcing to narrow attribution ranges. That longer term, ~150 year trend is between 0.4 and 0.7 C. That may be all antropogenic, but that is rather unlikely.

        That is why I am looking more into GFDL papers and Manabe’s estimates that appear to be much more accurate than Hansen’s. Using a moist air boundary layer, you have another frame of reference to use that doesn’t require the same assumptions.

        Kaplan has a non-detrend AMO data set that is really just the North Atlantic from 20N to 70N. One of the regions with more and generally better long term data. Since it correlates well with “global” land surface temperature because most of the “global” land is influenced by the north Atlantic, you might think about expanding you analytically horizons at looking at the natural variability, like Manabe.

      • BTW Webster, since you figured out that entropy is 50%, if you consider the saturated abiabatic lapse rate is 5C per kilometer and that the average SST from 50S to 50N is ~20C, the moist atmospheric bounday layer is roughly 4.4 kilometers. That forms a roughly isothermal envelope with at temperature of about -1.9 C and an S-B equivalent energy of ~307Wm-2. What percentage of the environmental lapse rate is due to that moist air envelope?

      • Chief Hydrologist

        See this is what I am saying – http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/7860/ohc.gif – you take a data series with a lot of intrinsic variability and create smooth curves. Less information than in the original – so a pointless exercise.

        I have quoted Tsonis many times on the climate shifs around 1910, 1945, 1976 and 1998 resulting from climate being a coupled nonliear chaotical system. Like it or not this is mainstream science for everyone from the IPCC to realclimate. It is associated with changes in cloud and/or ocean heat dynamics. Here are the ‘subtle’ changes in Mt Pinatubo and the 1998/2001 shift seen in ISCCP-FD shortwave up. There is not a chance we can find a 0.01 W/m^2/year change from greenhouse gases in this chaotic ‘noise’.

        http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/SWupnotes_zps3f1ab841.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

      • CH, CO2’s effect is nearly 2 W/m2 and growing at 0.04 W/m2 per year. This is half canceled by the extra upward IR due to surface warming that has already taken place and the other half is going into the OHC at the moment. These magnitudes are measurable and getting more accurate with each new piece of data on emissions, radiation, and OHC.

      • Chief Hydrologist

        I was being geneous.

        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif

        The changes in the ISCCP-FD record was a 0.7W/m^2 cooling in the IR between the early 80’s and late 90’s and 2.1 W/m^2 warming in SW. The Mt Pinatubo change was several Watts in a couple of years.

        Yes we are getting better at measuring – http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/AdvancesinUnderstandingTop-of-AtmosphereRadiationVariability-Loebetal2011.png.html?sort=3&o=15#/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/AdvancesinUnderstandingTop-of-AtmosphereRadiationVariability-Loebetal2011.png.html?sort=3&o=15&_suid=1364695186516049193700203623736

        The big story is the ‘noise’ – and I don’t mean from the warministas.

      • ” All I have to do is replace the analytical convolution I have spelled out here, with a numerical one and out pops the result.
        Pretty dang cool. Thanks mucho, Sarge Springer. “

        Wow, this turned out pretty cool. Like JimD said, the effects of a subtle Pinatubo come out clearly in the OHC.
        http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hHs8FuF7SWY/UVe39CUosSI/AAAAAAAADYs/i7RVxRx6wmE/s1600/hansen_forcing_diffusive_response.GIF
        This links to a plot of OHC using the effective forcing described by Hansen 2011**. Instead of using a ramp forcing function which gives the analytical result I presented earlier, a realistic forcing (which takes into account perturbations due to volcanic events) is numerically convolved with the diffusive response function, I(t).

        Note that the volcanic disturbances are clearly visible in the response, although they do not show as sharp a transient decrease after the events, perhaps half of what Balmaseda show. The suppression due to the 1997-1998 El Nino is also not observable, but that of course is not a effective forcing and so won’t appear.

        ** J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, “Earth’s energy imbalance and implications,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 11, no. 24, pp. 13421–13449, Dec. 2011.

      • ” Chief Hydrologist | March 30, 2013 at 8:41 pm |

        See this is what I am saying – http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/7860/ohc.gif – you take a data series with a lot of intrinsic variability and create smooth curves. Less information than in the original – so a pointless exercise.”

        So I add the effective forcing from Hansen, and all I hear from the prankster is crickets.
        http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hHs8FuF7SWY/UVe39CUosSI/AAAAAAAADYs/i7RVxRx6wmE/s1600/hansen_forcing_diffusive_response.GIF

        Chief is all talk and no action.