by Judith Curry
Dr. Curry,
Due to the weather and the OPM announcement (below) that Federal Offices will be closed, today’s hearing on “Policy-Relevant Climate Issue in Context” will be postponed. I’m sorry for the trouble.
FEDERAL OFFICES in the Washington, DC, area are CLOSED. Emergency and telework-ready employees required to work must follow their agency’s policies, including written telework agreements.
This email was sent at 4:30 a.m. I immediately called my travel agent to try to get an earlier flight, who said nothing about flights being cancelled. I then charged off to the airport, to find out that all flights had been cancelled today. At 8 a.m., Delta finally notified me via email that my flight was cancelled.
DC is pretty much shut down. A few taxis were on the road, that is it.
The first snow flurries have just started falling, no wind at all. This situation is a very tough forecast fall, since there is a fuzzy line between rain/snow when the temperatures are in the mid- 30’s.
So I will hang out in a DC hotel room, catch up on all the things I let slide while preparing my testimony. I should have time to put together a blog post later this afternoon.
So there is double irony here. Cancellation of climate hearing in March because of predicted snowfall; with the predicted heavy snowfall most likely not panning out.
Hey, I thought you said you arranged the snowfall. Should my faith be shaken?
=================
The English Language invented ‘snowquester’ just in time, but probably not just for you, Judy.
=============
curryja | March 4, 2013 at 1:34 pm | Reply
No, I’ve arranged for a big snow storm :)
Leif intervened.
==========
Hi Kim,
Intervention was a bit of a disaster for the Stanford Sage.
There be hippogryphs there, and we shall see them, shan’t we?
===============
I have to be amused at this. Last Wednesday, here in Ottawa, Canada, we had a snow fall of 10 inches of wet heavy snow, which started around noon. Sure, the commute home was not up to it’s usual efficiency, but nothing was cancelled, the schools remained open, school buses ran as usual. I am sure a few flights were cancelld or dealyed, but nothing very terrible.
On Thutsday, I cleared my driveway, and drove to the shpps as usual, and everything worked as normal. A Tale of Two Cities!
I knew a fella moved to North Bay. He shoveled the first snowfall, while his three neighbors with snowblowers watched. Three days later, one neighbor loaned him his snowblower for the next foot of snow. By the sixth day, and third foot of snow, the fella had his own snowblower.
=================
There is a better way to survive Canadian snowfalls: live next to a farmer with a tractor-mounted snowblower. For an annual cost of less than 10% of buying one of the things, I get to watch from the comfort of my house, coffee in hand, as my drive gets cleared. A great way to enjoy winter.
Curious as most cars will not go in 10 inches of snow due to a lower ground clearance. Even my tractor struggles a bit. We just got 18 inches which I may be not able to plow. You are welcome to drive down and plow it with your car.
Or maybe Ottawa has a tad more snow removal equipment than Virginia.
Has the hearing been rescheduled?
We’ve had it. Lonborg says warm is good, Curry says the science is uncertain, and Chameides searches his bellybutton for social policy.
=================
kim
Wal, now, considerin’ Lomborg lives in Denmark, “warm is good” by definition for him.
(Remember the Copenhagen shindig?)
Max
Max, I grew up due west of Ejsberg (on Tyneside), got to -22C once in my youth, though most winters only got down to -15C, so I’m with Lomborg on this (and on many other things). July average in Newcastle 15.5C, sweltering.
Of course, my friend in an attic room in Berne used to get frost on his duvet, so we had it easy.
Kim, perhaps you can work “omphaloskepsis” into some doggerel around Chameides..
(Speaking generally): Nothing like having warm bodies in the room for the TV cameras and photo ops and capturing that sound byte for the 6 pm news. It may not be relevant for this instance, but I guess you can’t really be called on the carpet if you’re not in the room. The show is always important in politics.
But the working world holds video conferences and hearings every day. Ok, so sometimes it’s fun to go to the capital; other times, not so much.
Enjoy your enforced day in DC Judith.
”
So there is double irony here. Cancellation of climate hearing in March because of predicted snowfall; with the predicted heavy snowfall most likely not panning out.
”
That’s not irony – that’s weather.
Maybe it’s “ironic” in the Alannis Morrisette sense – “It’s like rain on your wedding day”…
Great. Now I have that stupid song in my head.
Andrew
Good luck struck.
========
‘I know a girl who’s tough but sweet;
She’s so fine she can’t be beat.
She’s got everything Congress desires;
She’s so fine she can’t be beat.’
H/t BFGG
=======
”
Now I have that stupid song in my head.
”
Could be worse.
Ever since the ‘horsemeat’ story broke, I’ve had the theme from the Muppets’ “Swedish Chef” playing in my brain… Bork, bork, bork!
I can cure that….
♫ “Lola!
She was a show girl…” ♫
Some more therapy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEdC0c3YI4
I’m not saying the forecasts are garbage or anything…
My wedding was in a park in 100+F temps, I’d have coped with rain.
I also live and work in the Baltimore Washington area. Closing on the hype of a storm is pretty normal here, particularly thefirst big storm in several years. Perhaps “closing on hype” is just normal for all things government with fear of something out of the ordinary. Is there a lesson here on climate?
“Our kids are the last to know what snow is” of 12 years ago has been falsified
Is Gore coming to town?
So you’re cooling your heels in DC figuratively and literally. Cool. Er… I mean neato.
Judith says: “So I will hang out in a DC hotel room…”
Been there. There are worse places than hotel rooms… I’ll need some time to think of one, though.
‘I wandered lonely as a cloud
That floats on high o’er vales and hills
When all at once I saw a crowd,
A host, of golden daffodils;
Beside the lake, beneath the trees
Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.
…..
For oft, when on my couch
In vacant or in pensive mood,
They flash upon that inward eye
Which is the bliss of solitude;
And then my heart with pleasure fills
And dances with the daffodils.’
H/t W. Wordsworth.
==============
“Our Gang Comedies” trumps Wordsworth.
====
High up grew a daffodil
I couldn’t hardly reach her
Said I to me, “I think I will
Get it for my teacher!”
I climbed to get the daffodil
Out on a limb so thin
I tumbled down like Jack and Jill
And skinned my little shin
And here’s the pretty daffodil
I brought to my dear teacher
I love her dear and I always will
I’m awful glad to meet cha -”
=====
Depends on the hotel. I used to stay at the Grand Hyatt in Tapei (5-star) for weeks on end and looked forward to each stay.
Bob Tisdale
Worse than a DC hotel room is a Dulles hotel room (in a snowstorm, without your baggage).
Max
Grand Hyatt, Tapei. thats ok.
If you went there often enough ( commute) you’d get this:
(lat,lon)
25.027785,121.570882
top floor, 4 bedroom
Gotta get back there someday
:)
LOL … it seems there’s no urgency in holding a congressional hearing:
`Cuz those prescient folks at Scientific American foresaw the sobering & accelerating scientific reality of AGW, thirty-five years ago this month!
No wonder Anthony Watts/WUWT just hates these Scientific American guys, eh?
Scientific American has long since ceased to be anything remotely ‘scientific’. It’s has successfully completed it’s transition to pop-science.
Alas. I was a long time subscriber and I do miss the days of the serious journal.
Hmmm … at least some SA articles are mighty thought provoking, eh IPMeng?
• Antiscience Beliefs Jeopardize U.S. Democracy
• Is Global Warming Happening Faster Than Expected?
Climate Etc readers appreciate that denialist demagogues and astro-turfers are greatly desirous that the public *NOT* read these SA articles, eh IPMeng?
And of course, “know-nothings” among the citizenry eagerly embrace the demogoguery and astro-turfing!
Isn’t that the way of it, IPMeng?
No, I think IPMeng has it about right.
Like New Scientist, Scientific American has to sell copy. If there are not enough real scientists to buy it, then they find other ways of attracting an audience.
Scientific American was doubly unfortunate in that it had further to fall than New Scientist.
Does it matter if the CO2 is stored. Yes. If we leave it in the atmosphere, temperature will still stay bounded and it will help the green things grow with less water. That is important and will make a diference!
Just as I thought – these AGW guys had to start early in order to be ready for action by 1988. The plans for IPCC already existed before Hansen gave his talk: he just provided the final push that made it possible. Got nice payola too – a Heinz Foundation prize.
Scientific American
http://en.gravatar.com/sidles
Imagine how much money would have been saved had Congress invested more in advancing the science of weather forecasting, hardening infrastructure to weather conditions and adapting practices to changing weather.
If Congress can’t even get weather response right in Washington DC, how do they hope to get anything from a stacked deck of contrarian climate witnesses?
Though to be a bit fair, the implication that Ottawa is less screwed up than Washington DC is.. hrm. Nope. Screwed up as Ottawa is, just can’t argue that the implication is unfair, by a wide stretch.
“Congress can’t even get weather response right”
Obvious Cure: Re-elect them and raise taxes.
Andrew
”
…how do they hope to get anything from a stacked deck of contrarian climate witnesses?
”
Your cynical naïveté is showing.
Hmmm. Judith is a contrarian climate witness?
John Carpenter | March 6, 2013 at 3:57 pm |
Apologies. Would’ve said “arch-contrarian”, but it didn’t scan as well.
Dr. Curry’s boldly and unreservedly publicly stated views contrary to the consensus on hurricanes back when it wasn’t safe to do so, and contrary to her professional association’s stated official position on climate as recently as last autumn. She’s stuck out her neck to give the (outrageously ungrateful) Skydragon Slayer anti-concensus consensus a far better platform than they deserve, and to hear out the denizens of WUWT back when WUWT was a bleak hole of infamy. Climategate emails shows Dr. Curry was frequently puzzled about by many climatologists in the mainstream for such contrary views. Of course she’s a contrarian, as are all independent thinkers who form their own judgements without regard to what authority dictates or commonplaces conclude.
And kudos to her for that, right or wrong.
Ok, I guess… you clarified what you meant by contrarian better. I guess I was thinking of a definition of contrarian more in line with one who questions the temperature record to the degree ‘there is no warming’ or questions the physics of radiative heat transfer etc…
Goes to show how differently people may interpret the meaning of what they read vs what the author meant when terms like ‘skeptic’ and ‘contrairian’ and ‘consesus’ are used. Contrarian could be worn as a badge of honor by some or be considered as a pejorative remark by others. I took the comment to be more of a pejorative remark…. your explanation appears to be less pejorative.
Maybe she’s just a rebel.
For an individual person on the frontier of a new science, contrarian, even arch-contrarian, is a worthy calling.
As a witness called on to describe the state of the new science.. it could be a difficult role, given the contrarian is expected to bear witness to what those in the mainstream of that leading edge claim, know, understand and have established, before delving what they have yet to achieve.
Staying home was the right response. Only the greens think we can make storms stop happening.
David –
I assume that is just a throw-away line that doesn’t reflect your actual opinion. But just in case…
Do you really think that the fact of “greens” advocating policies directed at mitigating climate change implies that “greens” think that they can “make storms stop happening?”
David was just using a little poetic license.
He meant they think they can stop the oceans from rising and let the planet “heal”.
John –
What he said was that “[we would look back and say] “…this is the moment that the rise of the oceans began to slow (to slow a rise due to a specific cause does not equal “stopp[ing] the oceans from rising”). Clearly that was a reference to his belief that ACO2 is increasing ocean levels and that climate change could be mitigated.
I’m guessing that you were deliberately being as un-serious and wrong and misleading as David was – in a rather lame attempt at humor, but the problem is that many times “skeptics” make such wrong and misleading straw men without realizing that they have done so.
I think I deserve a prize.
I elicited a comment from Joshua that didn’t have 4 or 5 embedded rhetorical questions in it.
But then, maybe he was just distracted because he misplaced his smiley face.
David Wojick
“Greens” think they can change our global climate by throwing enough money at it.
They can’t.
Don’t know if Joshua really thinks we could change our global climate, but he certainly has not cited any specific actionable proposals to do so, which could be shown to have a perceptible impact on our global climate.
And I believe this is simply because there are no such specific actionable proposals.
Max
Don’t leave Washington without leaving a mark. Make a snow angel on the WH lawn. ;)
Fan, don’t you ever get tired of worrying about Co2? What about nuclear war? Rogue meteors? The Mayan calendar? Bad network television. Adult acne? Do you have time to worry about any of these, too?
You underestimate how seriously — and for how many decades — the world’s leading scientists have regarded this problem:
The Congress is mighty late in awakening to its responsibilities, eh pokerguy?
I know you’re meaning well Fan. I get that. But the idea of “waging war on warming” is beyond absurd. I have yet to see anyone, anywhere demonstrate that the modest amount of warming we’ve had in the last hundred years is anything but largely natural. The “leading scientists” you speak of are the scientists you’ve chosen to listen to. There are plenty of scientists who see things differently, lncluding Dr. Curry who continues to hammer away at the uncertainty monster…a monster you choose to ignore..
Yet things that are unequivocally bad…in the sense of dangerous….perhaps catastrophically so…get scant, if any attention from you…and more importantly from the MSM…including the ever rising risk of some nut bag dictator dropping a nuclear bomb somewhere…
”
The Congress is mighty late in awakening to its responsibilities…
”
Did I miss something?
They’re awake?
AND responsible?
LOL … yes Heinrich you are correct!
Congress perhaps is hopeful that Dr. Curry will assure them that Congress need know nothing, and Congress need do nothing … for these are two capabilities that Congress does possess~
In the event that Dr. Curry’s message is more sobering and challenging, both Anthony Watts and Big Carbon’s cadre of astroturfers are standing by, eager to tell Congress the soothing “know nothing, and do nothing” message that (at least some members of) Congress so dearly long to hear!
pokerguy:
”
…Dr. Curry who continues to hammer away at the uncertainty monster…a monster you choose to ignore..
”
Not ignored…
Right after the monster got stitched together and hammered, it was clubbed and pitch-forked to death up at the Frankenstein place.
”
…including the ever rising risk of some nut bag dictator dropping a nuclear bomb somewhere…
”
Who needs nut bag dictators? Hiroshima. Nagasaki.
Perhaps the Japanese deserved it.
Do you think all our descendants deserve climate change?
”
… cadre of astroturfers are standing by, eager to tell Congress the soothing “know nothing, and do nothing” message…
”
Sgt Schultz’s climate platoon…
http://www.triviatribute.com/sounds/johnbanner1.wav
Fanny
Looks like Momma Nature has told the congressmen all they need to know about who is in really in charge of climate.
As you once wrote: “you can’t fool Nature”.
Right on!
Max
heinrich
Our descendants are going to get natural “climate change” no matter how much money we throw at our climate.
The only difference is they will get trillions of dollars of added debt if we do go down that road.
Get it into your head: we are unable to change our climate, no matter how much money we throw at it.
(If you know of any specific actionable proposals that would change our climate significantly, let’s hear about them – otherwise stop your silly posturing.)
Max
”
Get it into your head: we are unable to change our climate, no matter how much money we throw at it.
”
Oooh. Suddenly, everything makes sense. Thanks.
The record global temps, rising sea-level, acidification, and the record low ice volumes are all perfectly natural. Whew!
You really ought to publish this deep analysis of yours. Fame awaits.
”
(If you know of any specific actionable proposals that would change our climate significantly, let’s hear about them – otherwise stop your silly posturing.)
”
Is that an order, sir?
But I forget – You ‘skeptics’ are only interested in science…
Tell you what – If you know any specific, published scientific proposals that explain how humans can release 30 billion tonnes of GHGs to the atmosphere every year and NOT change the climate, I’ll read them.
Ok Heinrich, I’ll play nice:
WILL YOU PLEASE name one specific actionable proposal for managing the climate, how much it will cost, how much impact it will have on global mean temperature and the cost per degree of change?
Now I’ll wait patiently while enjoying the sound of crickets.
k scott denison, mosomoso banned me from mentioning cricket, I’m not sure if that also applies to the plural form. At least it means that mm won’t be able to refer to the Poms’ disaster in NZ today. :-)
Heinrich says:
Tell you what – If you know any specific, published scientific proposals that explain how humans can release 30 billion tonnes of GHGs to the atmosphere every year and NOT change the climate, I’ll read them.
——-
Tell you what – if you know of any specific, published scientific proposals that explain how humans can release 30 billion tones of plant food to the atmosphere every year and NOT change crop yields, I’ll read them.
Wow, I didn’t realize how easy it was to seem smart by challenging someone to prove a negative. Cool!
k scott denison:
”
…explain how humans can release 30 billion tones of plant food to the atmosphere every year and NOT change crop yields, I’ll read them.
”
Ah – the good ol’ “plant food” gambit. Never gets old, does it?
You believe in some of the physical properties of CO2 but not others.
The conveniently compartmentalized minds of ‘skeptics’ never cease to amaze.
”
Oh good. I take it you have some to present?
”
Oh good, another ‘skeptic’ who can use the internet to inform the world about his personal opinions, but who can’t be bothered to gather scientific evidence for himself.
Start here:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm
or here:
http://www.conted.ox.ac.uk/F850-5
Yeah heinrich,
Links to books and schools isn’t evidence for any of your Chicken Littleism.
Ley me know when you can get some evidence.
Andrew
”
Links to books and schools isn’t evidence for any of your Chicken Littleism.
Ley me know when you can get some evidence.
”
Books and schools are out.
Nothing to learn from them.
I get that.
Dismiss published science as “Chicken Littleism”.
I get that.
Rest assured, I will spend every waking hour working towards the satisfaction of your ‘skeptical’ curiosity.
heinrich | March 7, 2013 at 10:03 am |
”You believe in some of the physical properties of CO2 but not others.”
=======
Nice try heinrich but i don’t recall saying i don’t believe in some of the physical properties of CO2.
BTW, I noticed you didn’t respond to my POLITE request that you name one specific actionable proposal for managing the climate, how much it will cost, how much impact it will have on global mean temperature and the cost per degree of change…
(HINT: I believe fully in the physical properties of CO2… just not in the magical properties of imaginary feedbacks.)
”
BTW, I noticed you didn’t respond to my POLITE request…
”
Your request was politely IGNORED.
This is a blog, and I don’t do others’ science homework.
Be brave, man – Take a trip to your local university library, or do an on-line course or two, if you dare.
”
(HINT: I believe fully in the physical properties of CO2… just not in the magical properties of imaginary feedbacks.)
”
Well – Thanks for clearing that up, Dr Denison.
I believe we understand the physical properties of CO2 as demonstrated in the laboratory, and I believe we don’t as thoroughly understand the physical properties of CO2 as demonstrated in the globe’s climate system.
===============
heinrich says: “Be brave, man – Take a trip to your local university library, or do an on-line course or two, if you dare.”
———–
LOL. Vocal when it suits your cause, quiet when it doesn’t.
I’ll save myself some time: there are NO specific actionable proposals for managing the climate that include how much it will cost, how much impact it will have on global mean temperature and the cost per degree of change.
None, nada, zip, zilch.
So go ahead, heinrich, tilt at the windmill of managing the climate. Just don’t charge me for your folly.
heinrich – ps: how much of your money have you invested in:
Solar energy
Carbon trading
Wind energy
Just curious if you put your money where your mouth is…
kim | March 7, 2013 at 2:35 pm |
I believe we understand the physical properties of CO2 as demonstrated in the laboratory, and I believe we don’t as thoroughly understand the physical properties of CO2 as demonstrated in the globe’s climate system.
===============
Aw, c’mon Kim, what could possibly be different when extrapolating from the lab bench to the entire globe and atmosphere? I mean, we’ve built these really, really cool and clever models? I mean, when building a new chemical plant one always just goes from the lab bench to the full plant, right? /sarc
heinrich
You misunderstood.
Cite some specific actionable proposals, which would result in a perceptible change to our planet’s climate, if you can.
I have seen none proposed to date.
Don’t just blather on about human CO2 emissions or melting end-summer Arctic sea ice or rising sea levels.
That all has nothing (nada, nichts, rien) to do with specific actionable proposals that would result in a perceptible change in our planet’s climate.
And these do not exist.
We cannot change our planet’s climate no matter how much money we throw at it.
Max
Scott,
”
None, nada, zip, zilch.
”
Max:
”
…nothing (nada, nichts, rien)…
”
Ha! I knew it.
You clever blog-scientists didn’t really need me at all to answer your polite request!
You can say “none” in four or five different languages.
That’s excellent blog-science right there.
I know when I’m beaten.
You win.
Now that you’ve used blog-comments to prove that climate science is a hoax, I have to ask – what’s next for you geniuses?
Are you going to tackle epidemiology?, string theory?, supply-side economics?, or will you go for the full-Monckton and prove that Obama was born in Kenya?
Inquiring minds want to know!
All the auroras’ flickers call.
=================
Hey Pokerguy — What did ever happen with that Mayan calendar thing anyway? Whatever it was, if it’s past, I seemed to have missed it — which at my advancing age is no great surprise.
Hey Kip,
I don’t want to jinx it, but I think we might have squeaked by, unscathed.
Meanwhile, I’m nominating this for the most pathetic question of the day..
Heinrich inquires:
“Do you think all our descendants deserve climate change?”
Answer: Yes, Because it will mean they’re alive.
”
Yes, Because it will mean they’re alive.
”
OK – You’ve got me there.
I presumed that we will have descendants.
My bad.
“The record global temps, rising sea-level, acidification, and the record low ice volumes”
heinrich,
Ever hear of a dude named Chicken Little?
Andrew
Andrew:
”
Ever hear of a dude named Chicken Little?
”
I did not realize that making mention of a fairly tale makes scientific evidence go away. Carry on!
“scientific evidence”
Oh good. I take it you have some to present?
Andrew
http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/06/hearing-postponed/#comment-300814
The Russians say we should worry about rocks from space.
I do agree!
“Nothing to learn from them.”
I didn’t say that. I said they weren’t evidence supporting your catastrophes.
And they’re not.
Andrew
”
And they’re not.
”
You’re right. They’re not “my” catastrophes at all.
Look – it’s not up to me to educate you. You can take that as a personal failure on my part, or as an admission that the entire discipline of climate science is bunk. I don’t really care to offend, but the status of your beliefs in the results of climate science is actually quite boring.
“your beliefs in the results of climate science is actually quite boring”
Yes, it’s considerably less exciting without your catastrophes to provide drama.
Andrew
Hear Ye! Hear Ye! All future government-funded meetings on the topic of the disastrous, calamitous and catastrophic consequences of global warming (and Americans driving SUVs) on climate change will be held in Cancun.
or at a fancy resort on Bali…
If you can get there – Vicky Pope of the Met Office, head of climate predictions no less, stranded at Gatwick when her flight to Cancun cancelled, she didn’t see it coming.
“Vicky Pope, head of the climate predictions programme at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, was stuck at Gatwick airport this week, a victim of Britain’s brutal cold snap. Ironically, she was on her way to Cancún to announce, together with the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation, that 2010 had provisionally tied with 1998 as the hottest year on record.” The Grauniad
good point about the astroid striking. Russia had their warning coffee. B612 foundations wants to spend about $450,000,000 trying to detect and then nudge away a potential strike.
Judith, best wishes and we all hope you get back for the next review.
So amazing that the Hansen testimony featured AC cutoffs, window closures and hot room temperatures and this one is a snow storm in March. Does anyone know the last time DC had a March snowstorm?
Scott
warning during coffee.
”
Does anyone know the last time DC had a March snowstorm?
”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-snow-in-washington-dc-benchmarks-for-snowquester-potentially-similar-seasons/2013/03/04/e72f52b6-848b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html
The cynical part of me suggests that the military would be happier to put some resources into playing asteroids.
But, on the other hand, humans may be colonising the asteroid belt at some point in the future when fission/fusion energy sources are not held back by green-moonshine…
Scott
$450 million to detect and nudge away a major asteroid strike (that would without a doubt have cataclysmic impact on our climate, based on past incidents)
versus
$ billions per year to fight the war against human-induced climate change (that we don’t even know is occurring or, if it is, whether or not it will have any negative impact on humanity).
Looks like a no-brainer to me.
Max
manacker, we have no real reason to believe there will be a meaningful impact in the foreseeable future, much less that there would be one we could prevent. Even if that weren’t true, there is no indication this particular project would offer any meaningful contribution to such efforts.
Brandon, Look at the B612 foundation web page. It explains a lot. There are around 50,000 astroids spinning around the sun and crossing the orbit of earth at some point. We had one little hit and one big fairly close miss in the last few months. The web site has a video simulation of the orbital tracks. Nudging them away is fairly easy if one starts early. Finding them is the tricky part if one does not like the Russian type surprise.
Scott
Why do so many people start responses with, “Look at X” where X is some key source of information for the discussion? Implicit in that statement is, “You haven’t looked at X.” Even worse, it almost always comes with the form, “If you had looked at X, you’d agree with me.” And as though that form isn’t bad enough, X is almost always some general resource where looking into it would require far more time than the speaker has invested.
Scott, if you want to do nothing but assign homework, find someone more gullible. I already know plenty about the B612 Foundation, including how they consistently exaggerate things and overstate certainty to drum up concern. What they’ve published about the Tunguska event is a perfect example. They say “over 1,000 square miles” were destroyed by a 40 meter asteroid. Even the most basic of fact checking will find the area was about 800 square miles. Estimates on Tunguska asteroid size have almost all been at least 50 meters, and many have gone up to 150 meters or more.
Heck, it isn’t even known the Tunguska event was caused by an asteroid. Who is going to put their faith in the B612 Foundation when it can’t even be accurate on basic points like that?
If scientists are going to save the world, it’s not going to be by rejecting the scientific method.
Brandon Shollenberger
OK. Scrap both the “asteroid” and “CAGW” programs (Lomborg) and spend the money on something worthwhile.
Max
Brandon S.
I don’t think you are gullible except for the CAGW religion issue you seem to embrace. I suggested a possible real problem that you certainly can ignore. Lots of problems in the world. No homework intended.
Scott
Wow Scott. Could you find a better way to discredit yourself than saying I seem to embrace the CAGW religion? You’re probably the only person on this site who believes that about me. I’ve certainly never said anything to indicate it.
Brandon S.
I did not want to get in a fight with you. If you believe in a reserved analysis of the data and that leads you to conclusions that is ok. No more nasty bickering. I recalled strong support for CAGW from you. I worry about AGW or CAGW but prefer to clean up coal fired power plants emissions other than COE
Sometimes you can’t tell the players without a program, and Brandon’s fine performances are so enthralling it is possible to be unaware of the color of his uniform.
Distant as the possibility of an asteroid strike, and as close as Carrington Events are, either one such or an asteroid strike of any magnitude of Tunguska or so have a much greater potential for wreaking havoc on human society than any apparent warming we can contribute.
As usual, you are both right. And, as usual, so is Max.
================
Scott, I reject junk “science.” That includes the work of the B612 foundation, and that includes (at least) much of the work behind CAGW concerns. If you remember me offering any support for CAGW, much less strong support, you remember wrong.
As for asteroids, it’s possible they’re a meaningful threat, but that doesn’t mean we should fund the B612 Foundation. That group has proven itself to have no interest in accuracy, a fact made evident with even the simplest check of their site. So long as that is true, there is no reason to trust them on matters of science.
In my experience, the seriousness of a problem is reflected by the behavior of those who worry about it. Petty behavior, consistent exaggerations, and outright dishonesty strongly suggest the people responsible are wrong, and it certainly indicates those people cannot be trusted. I’ve said that for my entire life, and I’ve said it about many issues, including CAGW.
Brandon S,
I genuinly apologize for getting your position mixed up. I enjoy following the conversation here and some links because of the information provided. Sometimes I get a little off track and the astroid strike trail is a distraction. I try to be respectful and courteous in my comments and reduce the bicker noise. But I like the reparte. Lots of problems and interesting things to work towards.
Scott
On the ground DC weather report: light drizzle, no snow accumulation
Since I live hear and our company air ships most of it’s product via overnight FedEx and UPS, we pay very close attention to the weather. in fact, it was pretty clear today would be a rain event for most of the day and the snow would not arrive until this evening possibly disrupting shipments. Today should have been a regular work day for the government based on the forecasts i saw. Tomorrow may require a late opening but that’s it..
Senate Judiciary Committee now meeting with AG Holder testifying.
I guess Washington is closed to some people and open to others —
but that is no surprise.
Perhaps one of the congresspersons will leave the windows open (and/or shut off the heating) so that the hearing room will be cold for dramatic effect, just as Sen. Wirth did in 1988 (but on the hot side). Can you imagine the TV “sight bites” of testimony from folks in heavy winter jackets?
It was actually reasonably warm today in DC if they wanted to try that, about 40 F.
40 F huh? Average high in DC for March 6 is 52 F.
OMG, another weather extreme!
Judith
Sounds like “Much Ado about Nothing” (redux?)
Max
But, but, but, it’s SUPERSTORM SATURN!!! The Weather Channel told me it was going to be a disaster. / sarc
It is not surprising that government was shut down due to this historic, unprecedented, extreme weather. After all,
“Washington hasn’t seen a major March snowfall since 2009.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/emergency-responders-brace-for-winter-storm-in-dc-baltimore-areas/2013/03/05/c8e58eb4-8586-11e2-a80b-3edc779b676f_story.html
thanks Don B.
I lived in Washington from the 60’s through the late 70’s and snow was fairly common in early March. March, in like a lion and out like a lamb.
Now it is an extreme weather event.
Scott
Current weather …
KDCA 061712Z 01022G33KT 2 1/2SM -SNRA BR OVC011 03/01 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 02033/1703
KIAD 061711Z 36019G26KT 1/4SM R01R/5000VP6000FT -SN FG VV004 01/M01 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/1711
KBWI 061654Z 01015G26KT 4SM RASN BR SCT009 OVC013 02/01 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 03029/1603
There is a fair amount of airline traffic into and out of KBWI and KDCA. Not much at KIAD.
One would think that with all the agencies with “transit” I their name, the Washington DC area would be robust to winter weather.
They had to close the Chesapeake Bay Bridge because of winds. The issue with the Metro (not one today) is clearing the tracks when it snows.
We should call all March snow storms “Hansen Events” or “Mannian Climate Sticks”
Judith,
Sorry to hear of your wasted trip – are you still going to post your (planned) testimony or will you be holding it in abeyance?
Hearing will be rescheduled in April, will keep my testimony in abeyance until the hearing.
Good. Looking forward to following it all in April.
Max
Will you be able to re-submit you written testimony? I know you said you didn’t have as much time to work on it as you wanted. This could give you that chance.
yes, i will be able to rework it a bit, but need to put it on hold for a bit to catch up on my day job
Perhaps, get to the meeting early, shut off the heating and open all the windows — Hansen redux.
Looks like Mother Nature cast her vote on the impact of human-caused global warming (she’s still in charge, folks).
Max
Agreed, but can some asinine statement by Bill McKIbben be far behind ….along the lines of “Snow has a middle name, and the name is global warming.”
Bill McKibben has a middle name, and the name is “shameless propagandist”
Stanley Kurtz has an interesting three part piece on McKibben’s latest entry in the Pullus Minimus movement – demanding that universities divest from fossil fuel stocks.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/342198/fossil-fuel-divestment-part-3-stanley-kurtz
(That is the third part, with links ton the first two.)
Oil, it’s the new South Africa.
Indeed. Can you imagine how distraught Hansen, Holdren, Ehrlich and their ilk – not to mention the alarmist denizens in our midst – would have been had they lived 3.5 million years ago – when there were camels in the Canadian Arctic?
Giant ancient camel remains discovered in Canadian Arctic
But no doubt, if the Earth’s orbit is still changing en route, and if Mother Nature continues on her merry way, doing her own thing in her own good time, human-generated CO2 will trump any possible impact either of these could have, right?!
This thing is so insane on so many levels, it’s easy to lose track. The very premise is nuts. Cold is the bogey man, not warmth.
”
The very premise is nuts.
”
I share your frustration.
”
There is talk of a new astrologer who wants to prove that the earth moves and goes around instead of the sky, the sun, the moon, just as if somebody were moving in a carriage or ship might hold that he was sitting still and at rest while the earth and the trees walked and moved. But that is how things are nowadays: when a man wishes to be clever he must needs invent something special, and the way he does it must needs be the best! The fool wants to turn the whole art of astronomy upside-down.
”
– Martin Luther
It takes a veritable shit-load of hubris to believe that you are better informed than 90% of the other experts in your discipline.
But the amount of hubris required for a scientific ignoramus to post “This thing is so insane on so many levels, it’s easy to lose track” on a blog is, well, truly astronomical.
Seriously, if you climate-warriors could only put your righteous indignation thing to good use, you’d be far too busy eradicating actual injustice to bother proudly announcing your rejection of science on a blog.
@pokerguy: Cold is the bogey man
Indeed! Washington has shut down many times for snow and ice. Rarely for wind and rain. Never because it was too warm.
“It takes a veritable shit-load of hubris to believe that you are better informed than 90% of the other experts in your discipline.”
Yeah, that’s what they told Galileo.
Where’s the justice in a handful of buffalo dung drying on the walls of a hut, heinrich?
==========
Hansen knows there were camels in the Canadian Arctic.
Extreme cold is nasty. Back in the day I walked to school with temperatures at 20 to 30 degrees below zero. Nobody shut down anything. Soccer Moms of the day had a problem giving rides: most cars would not start.
They did shut down for snow and ice. It was usually, temperature wise, quite mild when it snowed.
If warmth is so hot, why would the camels bother to walk north?
GaryM:
”
Yeah, that’s what they told Galileo.
”
‘Skeptics’ love to idolize Galileo, and believe that every crank-of-the-week is the next one…
But seriously, Galileo was dead wrong about many things. Although he was a supporter of heliocentrism, he denied that gravity causes tides, he ridiculed Kepler, and went to his death believing that the orbits of the planets must be perfect circles.
If this unusual cool phenomenon happens prior ter the next
important blimate hearing, I may start ter believe in the pathetic
fallacy. Of course alarmists have already ..ahem…broadened
their terminology ter encompass *unusual* climate change events.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/08/gore-effect-strikes-cancun-climate-conference-3-days-in-a-row/
Beth
A shiverin’ serf’s comment:
We wuz gonna have a hearin’
To see if what we’re fearin’
‘Bout Thermageddon nearin’
Truly is a real-life threat.
An the fat cats wuz preparin’
To hype up lots of scarin’
So the serfs would not mind bearin’
A car-bon tax the pols would get.
But then it started snowin’
An the winds they started blowin’
Momma Nature she was showin’
“You ain’t runnin’ climate yet.”
Max
Times like these, kinda the big freeze, Max, Tony b’s study of
the long history of climate and region variability comes ter
mind.
Yer observations of machinations, natural and er … human,
well put and with nice rhyme arrangements, Max. Say, WHT’s
focus mechanisms don’t seem ter be correctly adjusted, his
aspersions re intelligence of commentaters here seem more
appropriate ter his own …
Beth the serf.
Beth
Ah wunz checked out wonna them tel-ee-scopes an Ah reckon Ah no Webby’s problem.
When yew look thru th wrong end, fax look kinda blurry an ever’body looks little an stoopid. So yew think yew mus be bigger an smarter.
Ah spect that’s whut ol Webby’s doin with his tel-ee-scope, too.
(Didn’t read th operatin instrukshuns.)
Max
Looks as if the hearing is now fifthcoming. Unless it pleads an amendment.
Kevin (quack) Pietersen (quack).
There is a God! (quack)
mosomoso
Was that a canard?
Here’s a snow story. In mid-May1979 (coming into summer), my now-wife and I were living in a caravan (which used to belong to the Duke of Northumberland – it had a servant’s room!) In a small Northumbrian village. We set out on a sunny morning to walk up Simonside, a large hill, then got trapped in a blizzard – there was heavy snow, strong wind, zero visibility, we had to take shelter until it blew over.
My (Australian) girl-friend said “I’m never spending another winter in this country!” Several years later, raising kids in Queensland, she said, “I meant we’d spend January and February in Spain or Portugal.” A bit late to tell me then, I thought!
Sorry. Left out a (quack).
Dr. Curry, welcome to Washington DC. The government shuts on the rumor of a snowflake. You have proven a good meteorologist, since you called this snowfall as very dicey. For your sake I hope the rescheduled hearing is not inconvenient, and that you made it back to Atlanta safely and comfortably.
My googling skills have proven inadequate, but when Michael Kinsley wrote The New Republic TRB column he once described the tendency for D.C to shut down whenever any snow appeared, along with much anticipatory fear and trembling. He mentioned the contagious nature of this attitude, with friends asking him if he was really going to go outside at which point he “remembered he was from Boston and went out to brave the fearsome two-inch drifts” or something to that effect.
Go figure? Are all those government offices closed because its too hot?
Just asking!
Mailman
James Hansen organised the snow fall.
Hearing postponed?
Or Global warming postponed?
“ We now return control of your television set to you, until next week, at the same time when the Control Voice will take you to… The Outer Limits. ”
Generalissimo
I sure hope they had Hank Wangford in the show. He does both types of music too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hank_Wangford
It is bright and cheerful in Sydney’s western plains – but with the shadow of a maybe cyclone at home in central Queensland. Shibboleth and I are mounting up again – heading out for some Appalachian bluegrass bango pickin’ fun with Abigail Washburn. Then almost immediately home.
The last intercepted message from an enemy stronghold in Byron Bay is encouraging. ‘The country’s wet with the late summer east coast drenching. The frogs … I swear you would be able hear the frogs from low orbit satellite … I think … there’s something wrong … with the frogs … argggh…’
She and Kae – guitar playing husband – are genuine hillbilly rednecks. Story is they had dinner with the in laws. It was chicken this and chicken that. Everything on the table – and there was lots – was chicken of some sort. They were a bit surprised – but ate anyway. It was quite good. Later – sittin’ and pickin’ on the porch this chicken wobbles around the corner and falls over dead.
‘Say’ – says Abigail – ‘watcha reckons wrong with the chicken?’
‘Don’t rightly know… but they’s diein’ faster n then we can eat em.’
I have a few Generalissimo type announcements. And which part of stay tuned for … didn’t you?
As of immediately – all tourism to and from Minnesota – will be banned. UNtopia Global has set up a branch office in Moscow. UNtopia – Moscow will service out clients needs and try to avoid the whole unfortunate Gulag connotation. Much of the east coast of Australia is under quarantine until we get a better handle on the frog situation.
Best Regards
Generalissimo Skippy
Generalissimo Skippy,
Hmm …I wouldn’t eat the chicken if’n I was yew …
the frogs!
In the foothills where the streams unite,
From beds of reeds along the river’s course,
Song birds by day and croaking frogs by night
Celebrate the shining river’s source.
And the plover calls upon the wind,
The coot hen answers in the valley…
Beth
Banjo!
This is how I try to flatpick the guitar – Tony Rice/Clarence White style:
Speaking of flat-picking on guitar, I watch the RFD cable channel to catch Jimmy Capps whenever I can. He’s a consummate studio musician, who’s been on many hit country records. He plays the Sheriff on Larry’s Country Diner and is on most of the Country Family Reunion programs. You can find him on You Tube as well. The backup performers don’t get the credit they deserve.
JCH
Mighty fine pickin’ and singin’
Max
Judith, I too was to travel to DC today for a meeting tomorrow and Friday. Unlike yours, my first flight was cancelled yesterday, my second yesterday and then my third this morning (this latter a flight from Atlanta). Was about to look for a fourth option when the email came in to say the meeting was cancelled. Glad I didn’t make it!
Speaking of pilgrimages and climate change narratives,
here’s a good one from mosomoso. He’s allowing me
to post it here on Climate Etc.
http://withtwist.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/global-ingratitude-a-pilgrims-tale/#comment-420
Fascinating thread at WUWT.
Many a time I have had “skeptics” tell me that “skeptics” don’t doubt that the earth is warming, of that ACO2 has a warming effect – they only doubt the magnitude of that effect as estimated by the IPCC. (It is interesting to note that they alternate telling me what “skeptics” do and don’t believe with telling me that you can’t characterize “skeptics'” beliefs because they aren’t monolithic – but that’s another story).
Anyway, take a gander at the comments here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/06/nasa-satellite-data-shows-a-decline-in-water-vapor/#more-81521
It’s just full of “skeptics” making it abundantly clear that they don’t doubt the earth is warming or that ACO2 has a warming effect (although they doubt the IPCC’s estimate of that effect).
Heh. “Skeptics” crack me up.
zzzzzzzzzzzz….. …… zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Why, obviously, those apparent skeptical opinions are just astroturfed clods of ‘unreality’ congealed out of fantasy.
==========
Joshua,
As a noted partisan “warmer”, are you involved in Big Al Gore’s mindless climate spam campaign?
Andrew
Joshua:
”
Heh. “Skeptics” crack me up.
”
Always good for a laugh. Especially WUWT.
See Pommer’s Law:
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Pommer's_Law
The best thing is when fake skeptics put on their best false modesty and, with no hint of irony whatsoever, kindly try to give advice on rational argumentation to “warmists” and “alarmists”.
That’s usually right after the implication that because there is snow in someone’s backyard, therefore, Al Gore and cosmic rays.
Blog scientists – step right up – two for a dollar – batteries not included.
Speaking of which:
Whatever happened to Tony Watt’s “game-changing” paper anyway?
Maybe it’s next in line behind Jimmy Hansen’s “Super El Nino” paper.
Heinrech, Same place as Hansons no more snow for our children.
Scott
Once again JOshua, you leave me flummoxed. You’ve somehow got it in your head that all you have to do is smirk and sneer and throw in an occasional “lol” as if it were a pinch of fairy dust. Putting skeptics in quotes is not an argument, it’s a pose. TRying saying something meaningufl for a change. That is if you’ve got something meaningful to say. Which I doubt.
Sorry. Meant to write “meaningful.” An adjective that almost almost never applies to “Joshua’s” posts.
Prof Curry goes to Washington
Hear Ye! Hear Ye!
Let’s Close Washington
and stop the bleeding.
There is no gain spending other peoples money.
De-fund UN-sponsored global warming pseudoscience
and federal funding of public education
(truth matters so keep it local).
Billions if dollars slip through bureaucrats’ fingers
without a trace
like sands through a bottomless hourglass.
It is time to put theorizing about humanity destroying the Earth on hold.
Give it a couple of decades before subsidizing more fearmongering.
Let’s all agree on that for now:
no more government-funded meetings on the topic of
disastrous, calamitous and catastrophic consequences of global warming
(and Americans driving SUVs)—
climate change is a dead horse walking.
In the future climatists must indulge their interest in doomsday prognostications
on their own time;
on their own dime.
Relative to the variability in the data,
the changes in the globally averaged temperature anomaly
look negligible. ~R. S. Lindzen
Here, a sample of progressive media, offered without comment:
Cliff Mass has a detailed analysis of why the forecast failed. It includes some words with which readers of this blog will agree …
The screaming message in all of this (and I am leaving a lot out) was that there was HUGE uncertainty in this forecast, uncertainty that was not communicated to the public by my profession or the media. Would decision makers have sent government workers home or cancelled schools if they knew that the chances of a big snow was marginal? I don’t know….but they deserve to have had this information, and I believe they could have made better decisions.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-dc-snowstorm-forecast-failure.html
Bjorn Lomborg explains why eco-extremists are so wrong on Golden Rice
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/featured/prime-time/867432237001/tears-for-a-tyrant/2210125152001#2210125144001
thisisnotgoodtogo | March 8, 2013 at 9:34 am |
Can you point to where Bjorn Lomborg explains why Bjorn Lomborg is so wrong?
I mean, you can go back and check his track record on claims, predictions, revisions of his claims and admissions he was wrong last week but this week he’s making another claim.. But I have yet to see Bjorn Lomborg explain why Bjorn Lomborg is never right. And shouldn’t that be the first beam explained by a man explaining the mote he imagines in others’ eyes?
Let’s take a look at what Lomborg gets wrong in the clip provided:
1.) Lomborg makes no mention of the difference between Golden Rice and Golden Rice 2. GR2 didn’t exist until 2005; GR has only 4% (far below the threshold where it would make a dietary difference) of the additional nutrients of GR2. Had original GR gone into production on a massive scale immediately, it would have had no measurable impact, and arguably may have taken the wind out of GR2’s sails.
2.) Lomborg implies that all the opposition to GR was from eco extremists. This is patently not so. Some six dozen patents had to be used to produce GR; to distribute GR “for free” huge deals had to be struck with the IP holders, which took time and a large blitz by pro-GR advocates. Additionally, many of the opponents were not objecting on eco bases: farm cartels objecting to the loss of income for their traditional sources of the new nutrients in GR, like growers of yams and sweet potatos, dark green vegetables and yellow or orange root vegetables; governments of states and nations where such goods dominated the market as an export good (including some in the USA); religious nuts who hold that only God should make a gene; established charitable organizations who felt undercut by this competing effort because if people could feed themselves then the charities couldn’t force the people to listen to sermons while being fed. How “progressive” do these non-eco opponents of GR sound to you?
3.) Lomborg doesn’t mention the mix of responses from eco-extremists, including that most threw their full weight behind GR2, even while some remained opposed.
4.) Lomborg missed valuable opportunity after valuable opportunity to educate viewers on what’s really happening with food poverty, apparently quite willing to be used to let his interviewer score irrelevant political points not based in reality.
5.) Lomborg implies the technology is ready “right now”. Well, no. Any technology on this scale takes years to push to market. GR2 is moving at about the fastest pace of any product into its class to market.
And that’s before they even get into CO2, where Lomborg does advocate significant and thoughtful, economically efficient, rapid action. Not Big Government subsidies to huge corporations, but those measures that are easy, fast and cheap such as grass roots would take up once carbon is priced. Lomborg’s not entirely wrong on facts, he makes some pertinent observations, but he’s always willing to use Big Government programs to reproduce the problems of the carbon industries in the non-carbon sector.
How is that not wrong?
Bart R,
I usually have to skip your comments because they are so long winded. Try pithy instead of hot air.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
But seriously, you have a voice in the discussions but the point gets lost.
You think Lomborg is wrong because you think US carbon pricing will reduce increase in temps by .ox%. You support no regret carbon sequestration actions because it will reduce temps by 0.x%.
I support low hanging fruit actions like your suggestions of increased trees and recover great plains tall grass plantings. They are easy to do and don’t impact much but improve the environments no matter what.
Scott
Scott | March 10, 2013 at 11:37 am |
You flatter me, by imagining I think so far ahead and make so much room in my concerns for others.
I think Lomborg wrong because Lomborg’s wrong. He isn’t always wrong. It’s not like he was born under some fairy tail curse that turns everything he does wrong. But when he’s wrong in some testable way, then I’m not such a saint that I fail to test what he says.
I’m just malicious that way about my skepticism. I want to know if what I’m being told is crap or treasure.
That’s why I say Lomborg’s wrong, where he’s wrong.
It’d be great if Lombord saved me the trouble, and did that himself beforehand.
I don’t have a no-regrets policy. I don’t have a sequestration plan. Those straw men hold no interest for me.
Sorry to disappoint.
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