Pasteur’s quadrant

Posted on May 15, 2013 by | 134 comments

by Judith Curry

The savage budgetary pressures we will have at least into the 21st Century are part of the reason why we must attempt to develop a fresh contract between science and government. – Donald Stokes

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134 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Lennart Bengtsson on global climate change

Posted on May 13, 2013 by | 656 comments

[T]he really important question is to know how much warmer it will be and how fast this is likely to happen as this determines a realistic and sensible cause of action. In spite of all research and modelling experimentation we are actually less sure what will happen than what might appear from all reassuring reports that dominates the media. – Lennart Bengtsson

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656 Comments

Posted in Communication, Policy

Open thread weekend

Posted on May 11, 2013 by | 716 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

716 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

More on the ‘pause’

Posted on May 7, 2013 by | 1,130 comments

by Judith Curry

Is global warming slowing down? – David Appell

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1,130 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Consensus and controversy

Posted on May 6, 2013 by | 420 comments

by Judith Curry

This report outlines the main positions and debates surrounding the literally hot topic of man-made global warming.  Inspired by social studies of science and technology, the goal of the report is to document, describe and take stock of this potent scientific and public ‘battlefield’ that plays out arguably some of the more pressing issues of our time. – Emil Royrvik

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420 Comments

Posted in Consensus

Open thread weekend

Posted on May 4, 2013 by | 485 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

485 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

The art and science of effective science advice

Posted on April 28, 2013 by | 954 comments

by Judith Curry

“Universities, then, are doing the research. Governments, and their public services, want the evidence. Why is it so difficult to get these two worlds to meet at an intersection of knowledge that can influence in significant ways the making of public policy? Why does Australia’s large public investment in research and development contribute so little to addressing the political response to the nation’s economic and social challenges?” – Peter Shergold

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954 Comments

Posted in Policy

Open thread weekend

Posted on April 27, 2013 by | 546 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

546 Comments

Posted in Week in review

Congressional Hearing on Policy-Relevant Climate Issues in Context

Posted on April 25, 2013 by | 636 comments

by Judith Curry

The Hearing on Policy-Relevant Climate Issues in Context is now beginning.

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636 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncategorized

Congressional hearing rescheduled

Posted on April 24, 2013 by | 254 comments

by Judith Curry

The U.S. House Subcommittee on Environment Hearing on Policy Relevant Climate Issues in Context will be held tomorrow, April 25 at 10 a.m.

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254 Comments

Posted in Policy

Do scientific assessments need to be consensual to be authoritative?

Posted on April 22, 2013 by | 632 comments

by Judith Curry

The drive for consensus within the IPCC process, and its subsequent public marketing, has becomes a source of scientific weakness rather than of scientific strength in the turbulent social discourses on climate change. – Mike Hulme

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632 Comments

Posted in Consensus

What are the factors contributing to the reduction in U.S. carbon emissions?

Posted on April 21, 2013 by | 349 comments

by Judith Curry

The U.S. was the largest emitter carbon dioxide (CO2) until 2006 when China’s emissions exceeded the U.S.  U.S. CO2 emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels peaked in 2007 and have declined significantly over the past five years.  – John Miller

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349 Comments

Posted in Energy

10 signs of intellectual honesty

Posted on April 20, 2013 by | 880 comments

by Judith Curry

When it comes to just about any topic, it seems as if the public discourse on the internet is dominated by rhetoric and propaganda. People are either selling products or ideology. In fact, just because someone may come across as calm and knowledgeable does not mean you should let your guard down and trust what they say. What you need to look for is a track record of intellectual honesty. – Mike Gene

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880 Comments

Posted in Ethics

Open thread weekend

Posted on April 19, 2013 by | 155 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

155 Comments

Posted in Week in review

Meta-uncertainty in the determination of climate sensitivity

Posted on April 17, 2013 by | 648 comments

by Judith Curry

Two heavyweight climate scientists have published very different ideas about how much the Earth is going to warm in the coming decades. – Washington Weather Gang

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648 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Predictions of climate change impacts on fisheries can be a mirage

Posted on April 14, 2013 by | 116 comments

by Judith Curry

A novel method for causal inference has been motivated by .  .  .  sardines.

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116 Comments

Posted in Causation, Climate change impacts, Policy

Open thread weekend

Posted on April 13, 2013 by | 1,175 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

1,175 Comments

Posted in Welcome

The Forest 2006 climate sensitivity study and misprocessing of data – an update

Posted on April 10, 2013 by | 439 comments

by Nicholas Lewis

Some of you may recall my guest post at Climate Etc last June, here, questioning whether the results of the Forest et al., 2006, (F06) study on estimating climate sensitivity might have arisen from misprocessing of data.

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439 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Historic Variations in Arctic sea ice. Part II: 1920-1950

Posted on April 10, 2013 by | 353 comments

by Tony Brown

Satellite observations that provide an hour by hour picture of every part of the Arctic make it easy to forget that large areas of it had not even been even explored 80 years ago – let alone its ice extent minutely observed.  This paper explores the controversy surrounding the period 1920-1950, which was a period of substantial warming in the Arctic.

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353 Comments

Posted in History, Polar regions

We’re not screwed (?)

Posted on April 2, 2013 by | 1,247 comments

by Judith Curry

We’re screwed: 11,000 years’ worth of ­climate data prove it.  It’s among the most compelling bits of proof out there that human beings are behind global warming, and as such has become a target on Mann’s back for climate denialists looking to draw a bead on scientists. — The Atlantic, March 9th

We’re not screwed. The trouble is, as they quietly admitted over the weekend, their new and stunning claim is groundless. The real story is only just emerging, and it isn’t pretty. – Ross McKitrick

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1,247 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Ethics

UK MSM on climate sensitivity

Posted on March 31, 2013 by | 358 comments

by Judith Curry

If climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, climate sensitivity would be on negative watch. But it would not yet be downgraded. – The Economist

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358 Comments

Posted in climate models, Communication, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

Posted on March 29, 2013 by | 807 comments

by Judith Curry

Kevin Trenberth famously stated in the CRU emails:

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.

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807 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

American Physical Society

Posted on March 24, 2013 by | 946 comments

by Judith Curry

The American Physical Society (APS) has a new Topical Group on the Physics of Climate (GPC).

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946 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Playing hockey – blowing the whistle

Posted on March 19, 2013 by | 933 comments

by Rud Istvan

This instantly ‘famous’ 2013 Science hockey stick paper derived from Marcott’s 2011 Ph.D thesis at Oregon State University, available here. His thesis doesn’t show a hockey stick ‘blade’ projecting above its anomaly baseline NCDC 1961-1990. H/T to Jean S, posted at Climate Audit. Something changed after the thesis was published to produce the new ‘blade’ in Science. That something was significant, since the Science paper’s Supplementary Information discussion said it did not enable discriminating such a temperature variation (i.e. a ‘blade’) on such a short a time scale.

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933 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Obesity (?) of the U.S. scientific research enterprise

Posted on March 17, 2013 by | 178 comments

by Judith Curry

The scientific enterprise is not immune from the perils of obesity.  – Mike Kelly

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178 Comments

Posted in Policy