Let’s play hockey – again

Posted on March 11, 2013 by | 1,147 comments

by Rud Istvan

On March 8, 2013, mainstream media around the world carried headlines trumpeting a new study in Science, the gist typified by NBC News:

Warming fastest since dawn of civilization

Except that is not what the paper was about.

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1,147 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

New perspectives on climate sensitivity

Posted on March 10, 2013 by | 495 comments

by Judith Curry

Here is a summary of some important new papers on the topics of climate sensitivity and attribution.

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495 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Time for some optimism about the climate crisis (?)

Posted on March 9, 2013 by | 196 comments

by Judith Curry

First we discuss the interlinked problems of climate change, peak fossil fuels and the credit crunch and then grounds for some optimism, including means of adjusting energy and commodity markets to start to address these ills, and other measures to deal with non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. – Richard Douthwaite and David Knight

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196 Comments

Posted in Policy

Direct Statistical Simulation

Posted on March 6, 2013 by | 430 comments

by Judith Curry

[A] technique called direct statistical simulation dramatically reduces the time and brute-force computing that current simulation techniques require. The process does a good job of modeling fluid jets, fast-moving flows that form naturally in oceans and in the atmosphere. The findings are a key step toward bringing powerful statistical models rooted in basic physics to bear on climate science.

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430 Comments

Posted in climate models

Hearing postponed

Posted on March 6, 2013 by | 182 comments

by Judith Curry

Dr. Curry,

Due to the weather and the OPM announcement (below) that Federal Offices will be closed, today’s hearing on “Policy-Relevant Climate Issue in Context” will be postponed.  I’m sorry for the trouble.

FEDERAL OFFICES in the Washington, DC, area are CLOSED. Emergency and telework-ready employees required to work must follow their agency’s policies, including written telework agreements.

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182 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Forthcoming Congressional Hearing

Posted on March 4, 2013 by | 403 comments

The U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Environment of the Committee on Science, Space & Technology is holding a Hearing this Wed on “Policy Relevant Climate Issues in Context.”  Witnesses:

  • Bjorn Lomborg
  • Judith Curry
  • William Chameides

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403 Comments

Posted in Communication, Policy

Spinning the climate model – observation comparison

Posted on February 22, 2013 by | 1,225 comments

by Judith Curry

In the past 6 months or so, we have seen numerous different plots of the CMIP5 climate model simulations versus observations.

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1,225 Comments

Posted in climate models, Communication, Uncertainty

Adapting to climate change: Challenges and opportunities for U.S. business community

Posted on February 19, 2013 by | 310 comments

by Judith Curry

The wide variation in temperature, rainfall and other measures predicted by the various climate models makes it difficult for both policymakers and the private sector to decide when and how much capital to invest in measures to adapt to possible changes in the climate.  – Margo Thorning

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310 Comments

Posted in Policy

Congressional testimony and normative science

Posted on February 16, 2013 by | 859 comments

by Judith Curry

Last week, the U.S. Senate held a hearing entitled Senate Briefing on the Latest Climate Science.
.

859 Comments

Posted in Ethics

The horsemeat argument

Posted on February 13, 2013 by | 819 comments

by Judith Curry

So, what does the UK scandal involving horsemeat in lasagna have to do with climate change?

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819 Comments

Posted in Communication, Ethics

IEA Facts and Fictions

Posted on February 11, 2013 by | 363 comments

by Rud Istvan and Brandon Shollenberger

Comments on the previous Climate Etc post on Maggio and Cacciola’s paper, When will oil, natural gas, and coal peak? motivated an analysis of the World Energy Outlook produced annually by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

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363 Comments

Posted in Energy

Sensitivity about sensitivity

Posted on February 4, 2013 by | 1,165 comments

by Judith Curry

. . . the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. – James Annan

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1,165 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Another Hockey Stick

Posted on February 1, 2013 by | 507 comments

by Rud Istvan

Fossil fuel availability affects how much CO2 will be emitted, which might or might not affect climate much. Hubbert’s 1956 insight suggests total peak oil is near (around 2020), and that gas and coal will peak by midcentury.

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507 Comments

Posted in Energy

Condensation-driven winds: An update

Posted on January 31, 2013 by | 1,404 comments

by Anastassia Makarieva, Victor Gorshkov, Douglas Sheil, Antonio Nobre, Larry Li

It’s official: our controversial paper has been published. After a burst of intense attention (some of you may remember discussions at Climate Etc., the Air Vent and the Blackboard), followed by nearly two years of waiting, our paper describing a new mechanism driving atmospheric motion has been published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

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1,404 Comments

Posted in climate models

Macroweather, not climate, is what you expect

Posted on January 21, 2013 by | 198 comments

by Shaun Lovejoy

When the International Meteorological Organization defined the first climate normal from 1900 to 1930, the belief was that the climate was constant, and that the newly defined climate ‘normal’ would give a close approximation to the climate.

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198 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Berkeley Earth Update

Posted on January 20, 2013 by | 906 comments

by Steve Mosher

It has been a while since we’ve done an update and there is much to report on, including an update to the web site, some additional memos/papers to discuss and an update on the papers. Let’s start with the web site.

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906 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Blog commenting etiquette

Posted on January 18, 2013 by | 452 comments

by Judith Curry

There is a sad lack of etiquette guides for new media. Granted, Miss Manners and her brethren have started weighing in on the correct way of handling everything from Facebook snubs to Twitter meltdowns, but there is still no set of guidelines for the proper way to handle oneself while blogging. So, an unwritten etiquette has been created for blogging, but without the benefit of a rulebook that new bloggers can consult. – Emily

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452 Comments

Posted in Welcome

Hansen on the ‘standstill’

Posted on January 16, 2013 by | 966 comments

by Judith Curry

The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.  – James Hansen et al.

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966 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Geek manifesto

Posted on January 14, 2013 by | 144 comments

by Judith Curry

British journalist Mark Henderson makes a passionate case for why science and scientists deserve a greater role in politics in The Geek Manifesto. But he offers no discussion — much less remedy — for “geeks” who play politics via science. Increasing the influence of scientists won’t clean up our politics; for that, we simply need to practice better politics, which means holding institutions and authorities, including scientists, accountable to the public. – Roger Pielke Jr.

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144 Comments

Posted in Policy

Draft U.S. Climate Assessment Report

Posted on January 12, 2013 by | 204 comments

by Judith Curry

The U.S. National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) has released a draft of its report for public comment.

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204 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

Trusting (?) the experts

Posted on January 10, 2013 by | 972 comments

by Judith Curry

Mathbabe asks ‘Whom can you trust?’ and discusses trusting experts, climate change research, and scientific translators.

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972 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Sociology of science

Improving weather forecasts for the developing world

Posted on January 6, 2013 by | 323 comments

by Judith Curry

Global prediction partnerships would cost little and reduce the regional carnage caused by floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. – Peter Webster

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323 Comments

Posted in Policy, South Asia

Peak (?) farmland

Posted on January 5, 2013 by | 147 comments

by Judith Curry

We are confident that we stand on the peak of cropland use, gazing at a wide expanse of land that will be spared for Nature. – Ausubel, Werner and Waggoner

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147 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

Is fat good?

Posted on January 4, 2013 by | 325 comments

by Judith Curry

Epidemiologists struggle to explain a study that challenges a core belief:  Fat will kill you. – William Saletan

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325 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Scientific method

New Year’s resolution for scientists

Posted on January 3, 2013 by | 552 comments

by Judith Curry

Here’s a New Year’s resolution for scientists, especially in the United States: gain the confidence of people and politicians across the political spectrum by demonstrating that science is bipartisan. – Daniel Sarewitz

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552 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized