Climate Etc.

Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.

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261 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

Posted on December 20, 2019 by niclewis | 67 comments

By Nic Lewis

In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy available here). I wrote that I would defer dealing with the differences between observed and CMIP5 model-simulated historical warming, which formed the basis of CJ20’s numerical analysis, until a subsequent article. I now do so. Continue reading →

67 Comments

Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized

Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 1

Posted on December 16, 2019 by niclewis | 113 comments

By Nic Lewis

A comment on LC18 (recent paper by Lewis and Curry on climate sensitivity) by Cowtan and Jacobs has been published, along with our response.

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113 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

The toxic rhetoric of climate change

Posted on December 14, 2019 by curryja | 443 comments

by Judith Curry

“I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. It’s making my sick to my stomach, I’m not eating or sleeping and I’m getting panic attacks daily. It’s currently 1 am and I can’t sleep as I’m petrified.” – Young adult in the UK

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443 Comments

Posted in Communication

Madrid

Posted on December 2, 2019 by curryja | 432 comments

by Judith Curry

The UN Climate Change Conference this week in Madrid provides an important opportunity to reflect on state of the public debate surrounding climate change.

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432 Comments

Posted in Policy, Politics

Legacy of Climategate – 10 years later

Posted on November 12, 2019 by curryja | 388 comments

by Judith Curry

My reflections on Climategate 10 years later, and also reflections on my reflections of 5 years ago.

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388 Comments

Posted in Skeptics, Sociology of science

Escape from model land

Posted on October 29, 2019 by curryja | 348 comments

by Judith Curry

“Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

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348 Comments

Posted in climate models, Uncertainty

Reflections on energy blogging

Posted on October 21, 2019 by curryja | 175 comments

by Planning Engineer

Five years ago today I started guest blogging on Climate Etc., focusing on energy related issues.

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175 Comments

Posted in Communication, Energy

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

Posted on October 18, 2019 by niclewis | 64 comments

By Nic Lewis

The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading or definitely incorrect.

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64 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized

Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity, regression, statistics

Climate ‘limits’ and timelines

Posted on October 16, 2019 by curryja | 126 comments

by Judith Curry

Some thoughts in response to a query from a reporter.

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126 Comments

Posted in Policy

Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome

Posted on September 25, 2019 by niclewis | 152 comments

By Nic Lewis

The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.

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152 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Tagged Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

A philospher’s reflections on AGW denial

Posted on September 11, 2019 by curryja | 304 comments

by Dr. Paul Viminitz

Of the things I care most about, AGW is near the bottom. But because, as George W. Bush put it, either you’re with us or you’re against them, I think I’d rather be interestingly wrong than politically correct. Accordingly I rehearse what I take to be the case for AGW denial, masquerading – so as to continue to get dinner invitations – as tongue in cheek.

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304 Comments

Posted in Skeptics

Don’t overhype the link between climate change and hurricanes

Posted on September 10, 2019 by curryja | 101 comments

by Judith Curry

Doing so erodes scientific credibility — and distracts from the urgent need to shore up our vulnerability to storms’ impacts.

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101 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

‘Alarmism enforcement’ on hurricanes and global warming

Posted on September 7, 2019 by curryja | 129 comments

by Judith Curry

I used to be concerned about ‘consensus enforcement’ on the topic of climate change. Now I am concerned about ‘alarmism enforcement.’

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129 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes, Sociology of science

ENSO predictions based on solar activity

Posted on September 1, 2019 by curryja | 174 comments

by Javier

By knowing or estimating where in the solar cycle we are we can get an estimate of the chances of a particular outcome even years ahead.

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174 Comments

Posted in Solar

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

Posted on August 22, 2019 by curryja | 200 comments

by Judith Curry

My new manuscript is now available.

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200 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Re-evaluating the manufacture of the climate consensus

Posted on August 21, 2019 by curryja | 137 comments

by Judith Curry

A new book by Oppenheimer, Oreskes et al. entitled ‘Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy‘ makes a case against consensus seeking in climate science assessments.

Climate Etc.

Analysis of a carbon forecast gone wrong: the case of the IPCC FAR

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

Why the CO2 reduction pathways are too stringent

Two more degrees by 2100!

3 degrees C?

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 1

The toxic rhetoric of climate change

Madrid

Legacy of Climategate – 10 years later

Escape from model land

Reflections on energy blogging

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

Climate ‘limits’ and timelines

Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome

A philospher’s reflections on AGW denial

Don’t overhype the link between climate change and hurricanes

‘Alarmism enforcement’ on hurricanes and global warming

ENSO predictions based on solar activity

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

Re-evaluating the manufacture of the climate consensus

The latest travesty in ‘consensus enforcement’

Climate Change and Land: discussion thread

Child prophets and proselytizers of climate catastrophe

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