by Judith Curry
A pacated dialogue between two serious thinkers who disagree about climate change.
by Judith Curry
A pacated dialogue between two serious thinkers who disagree about climate change.
Posted in Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
Spatial Requirements of Wind/Solar and Nuclear Energy and Their Respective Costs
“In addition to the energy sector, the climate debate also needs a transition. From ideology and wishful thinking, to facts, figures and rationality.”
By Nic Lewis
A critique of the paper “Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect”, by Zhou, Zelinka, Dessler and Wang. Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
By Nic Lewis
Introduction
Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major second wave would occur. This thinking has been proved wrong. In this article I give an explanation of why I think major second waves have happened. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
Looking ahead towards new energy technologies, plus my own saga and rationale for transitioning my personal power generation and consumption. Continue reading
Posted in Energy
By Nic Lewis
Key points
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
I just finished reading an article entitled Asymptomatic Spread Revisited. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
How the ‘blame game’ gets in the way of solving complex societal problems.
by Judith Curry
“Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”
Posted in Communication, Uncertainty
by Andy West
“For me the question now is, now that we know that renewables can’t save the planet, are we going to keep letting them destroy it?”. – Michael Schellenberger Continue reading
Posted in Energy
by Frank Bosse
A recent paper published in “Nature” made some excitement in the media, see here or here.
Posted in Hurricanes
by Kenneth Fritsch
Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model that can account for the period disconnection using the negative forcing of aerosol/cloud effects in the Historical period that is carried forward into the Future period. I attribute some of the uncertainty in simulations of this simple model to endogenous model decision (selection) uncertainty that leads to variations in the changes of the negative forcing in the Historical period carried forward into the Future period.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
“I’m reaching out to scientists this week about the election. How do you feel about it? Which of the candidates has the best plan, for you, in science and technology?”
Posted in Politics
by Judith Curry
An alternative assessment of U.S. Supreme Court Justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett’s statements on climate change.
Posted in Politics
By Nic Lewis
An interesting new paper by Marc Lipsitch and co-authors, “Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2”, has recently been published.[1] It discusses immunological and epidemiological aspects and implications of pre-existing cross-reactive adaptive immune system memory arising from previous exposure to circulating common cold coronaviruses. They argue that key potential impacts of cross- reactive T cell memory are already incorporated into epidemiological models based on data of transmission dynamics, particularly with regard to their implications for herd immunity. I believe that they are mistaken on the herd immunity point, as I will show in this article. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.
Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty
By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Posted in Extreme events
By Nic Lewis
Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized