Author Archives: curryja

Different agents may have effects on global temperature (GMST) different to those which would be expected simply by reference to the radiative forcing they exert. This difference is encapsulated in the term “forcing efficacy”.

Continue reading →

265 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

On distinguishing disbelief and nonbelief

Posted on January 9, 2016 | 401 comments

by Judith Curry

It is important to distinguish between disbelief and nonbelief– between believing a sentence is false and merely not believing it true.

Continue reading →

401 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Skeptics, Sociology of science

Renewables and grid reliability

Posted on January 6, 2016 | 316 comments

by Planning Engineer

The costs of major grid outages are staggering and recovery from such outages is challenging; therefore the North American grids are planned and operated to ensure high levels of reliability.

Continue reading →

316 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Climate models and precautionary measures

Posted on January 5, 2016 | 226 comments

by Judith Curry

Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb

Continue reading →

226 Comments

Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty

A War Against Fire

Posted on January 1, 2016 | 395 comments

by Judith Curry

The most savage controversies are those as to which there is no good evidence either way. -Bertrand Russell

Continue reading →

395 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

2015 → 2016

Posted on December 31, 2015 | 185 comments

by Judith Curry

Ringing in the New Year at Climate Etc.

Continue reading →

185 Comments

Posted in Week in review

Year in review – top science stories

Posted on December 27, 2015 | 123 comments

by Judith Curry

The ‘best of 2015’ lists are starting to appear.

Continue reading →

123 Comments

Posted in Week in review

Week in review – science and technology edition

Posted on December 26, 2015 | 242 comments

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Continue reading →

242 Comments

Posted in Week in review

NOAA fails walrus science

Posted on December 25, 2015 | 190 comments

by Jim Steele

NOAA’s Arctic report card made claims that hinge on the unproven hypothesis that a reduction in sea ice is detrimental by denying walruses access to foraging habitat.

Continue reading →

190 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

The Climate of XMAS

Posted on December 24, 2015 | 155 comments

by Judith Curry

My very best wishes to all of you for the holiday season.

Continue reading →

155 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus

Posted on December 21, 2015 | 293 comments

by Bob Tisdale

A closer look at the uncertainties in the mid 20th century ocean surface temperatures.

Continue reading →

293 Comments

Posted in Oceans

What is there a 97% consensus about?

Posted on December 20, 2015 | 388 comments

by Frank Hobbs (franktoo)

At the Senate Hearing on “Dogma and Data”, dogma about the 97% consensus went unchallenged. Democratic Senators constantly recited the phrase “97% consensus”, but it is not clear whether they – or their Republican opponents – had the slightest idea what the phrase meant: 97% of what group support a consensus about exactly what?

Continue reading →

388 Comments

Posted in Consensus

Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters

Posted on December 17, 2015 | 885 comments

by Judith Curry

30 year trends of temperature are shown to be lower, using well-sited high quality NOAA weather stations that do not require adjustments to the data.

Continue reading →

885 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Climate models versus climate reality

Posted on December 17, 2015 | 244 comments

by Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger

Perhaps the most frank example of the growing disconnection between forecast and observed climate change was presented by University of Alabama’s John Christy to the Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives on December 8.

Continue reading →

244 Comments

Posted in climate models

The new climate ‘deniers’

Posted on December 16, 2015 | 396 comments

by Judith Curry

New members of the climate ‘deniers’ club: James Hansen, Ken Caldeira, Kerry Emanuel, Tom Wigley . . . and Bill Gates.

Continue reading →

396 Comments

Posted in Energy, Uncategorized

Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated?

Posted on December 15, 2015 | 124 comments

by Sergey Kravtsov, Marcia Wyatt, Judith Curry and Anastasios Tsonis

A discussion of two recent papers: Steinman et al. (2015) and Kravtsov et al. (2015)

Continue reading →

124 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Paris: impacts?

Posted on December 13, 2015 | 191 comments

by Judith Curry

The world’s leaders are touting victory as a result of the COP21 deliberations in Paris.

Continue reading →

191 Comments

Posted in Policy

A closer look at scenario RCP8.5

Posted on December 13, 2015 | 561 comments

by Larry Kummer

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides the basis for these: RCP8.5. Even a casual examination of this shows it to be a useful worst-case scenario, but not “business as usual”.

Continue reading →

561 Comments

Posted in Policy