Author Archives: curryja

Doubt, uncertainty and ignorance

by Judith Curry

The word “doubt” has a bad connotation in the climate debate owing to the merchants of doubt meme.  Richard Feynman puts the word “doubt”  into the appropriate perspective in the context of science:

When a scientist doesn’t know the answer to a problem, he is ignorant. When he has a hunch as to what the result is, he is uncertain. And when he is pretty damn sure of what the result is going to be, he is still in some doubt. We have found it of paramount importance that in order to progress, we must recognize our ignorance and leave room for doubt. Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty — some most unsure, some nearly sure, but none absolutely certain. 

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Is Extreme Weather Linked to Global Warming?

by Judith Curry

Yale Environment 360 has just posted  a  forum with the same title as this post. I along with 7 other scientists provided a 250 word response to the question:

Do you think there is growing evidence that human-caused global warming is contributing to an increased incidence of extreme weather ?

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Making the lukewarmer case

by Judith Curry

Many skeptics have attempted to lay out their arguments in a broad sense for the broader public, presumably hoping to convince the uninformed or the weakly convinced.  There are books, booklets, ppt presentations, youtube videos.  While these may inform people that are already skeptical, and maybe catch the attention of the uninformed, I suspect that the do not make much if any headway in convincing to be skeptical those that are already convinced.

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UN Talks and Power Politics: Its Not About the Temperature

by Judith Curry

In the wake of the breaking  announcement that Russia, Japan and Canada told the G8 they would not join a second round of carbon cuts under the Kyoto Protocol at United Nations talks this year and the US reiterated it would remain outside the treaty, it is instructive to took a look at what has been going on in the context of the UNFCCC.

The title of this post comes from a recent hearing from the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

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Risk Perception

by Judith Curry

Over at nature.com,  Dave Ropeik has posted an essay entitled “Risk Perception.”

“No matter what the hard risk sciences may tell us the facts are about a risk, the social sciences tell us that our interpretation of those facts is ultimately subjective.”

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Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action

by Judith Curry

“So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.”

I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann .  I thought it had to be a typo or misquote (note, Mann said this, not me :))

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The futility of carbon reduction?

by Tony Brown (tonyb)

This article assesses the impact of UK’s proposed climate change legislation.

“To achieve the target of an 80% reduction in (UK) carbon emissions by 2050 virtually all our electricity will need to come from clean sources.” – Gordon Brown, 2007

 “(UK) Families will have to get used to only using power when it is available”-Steve Holliday, Chief Executive of National Grid- Sunday Times of 22 May 2011

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Freedom of Information

by Judith Curry

Some interesting issues this week regarding Freedom of Information (FOI), related to Michael Mann and the UVa and also some statements by Sir Paul Nurse, President of the Royal Society.

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More tornado madness

by Judith Curry

With the tragic damage and loss of life in Joplin, the tornado madness continues unabated.   Here is the latest from Roy Spencer, Bill McKibben, and Joe Romm.

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What we agree(?) on

by Judith Curry

This post draws heavily from Bishop Hill’s post with (almost) the same title, related to the Cambridge Workshop discussed on the previous thread. Specifically, this addresses the attempt by Dr. Eric Wolff to find a measure of agreement between the two sides in the climate debate.  I attempted something similar on a previous Climate Etc. thread titled What we know with confidence.

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U.S. military and climate skeptics

by Judith Curry

A must read article in the Guardian by Jules Boykoff entitled “U.S. Military Goes to War With Climate Skeptics.

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Null hypothesis discussion thread

by Judith Curry

On the  politics of climate expertise thread, we discussed Kevin Trenberth’s statement:

Given that global warming is “unequivocal”, to quote the 2007 IPCC report, the null hypothesis should now be reversed, thereby placing the burden of proof on showing that there is no human influence. 

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On admitting and correcting mistakes

by Judith Curry

Inside Higher Education (UK) has a lengthy article by Darrel Ince  entitled “Systems failure”, with the subtitle “A scandal involving clinical trials based on research that was riddled with errors shows that journals, institutions and individuals must raise their standards.”   An interview with Ince can be found here.  There is discussion of this on two threads at Bishop Hill (here and here).  The article and interview are very thought provoking, with relevance to the context of the climate debate.

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Tropospheric Temperature Trends

by Judith Curry

A comprehensive history of the controversy surrounding tropospheric temperature trends has recently been published in WIRES Climate Change (h/t WUWT and Lorne LeClerc).

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NASA Earth Science Advisory Subcommittee

by Judith Curry

This week I am attending a meeting of the Earth Science Subcommittee of the NASA Advisory Council.  As described in the Public Notice for the meeting, the topic of this meeting is evaluation of NASA’s  Earth Science Modeling and Activities.

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NCAR Community Climate System Model Version 4

by Judith Curry

A new paper describing the latest version of the NCAR climate model has just been published at the Journal of Climate.  This is the version of the model that is being used for the IPCC AR5.

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Sense from Von Storch

by Judith Curry

NoTricksZone reports on an interview (in German) with Hans von Storch on the topic “Scientists request honest dialogue” that addresses the issue of climate skepticism.

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Redefining dangerous climate change

by Judith Curry

There is some “buzz” about a new paper and essay by Timothy Lenton on dangerous climate change.

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Quote of the week

by Judith Curry

“Do not confuse science with scientists, expertise with experts, or intellect with intellectuals. Society is not anti-intellectual or anti-science, it is anti-intellectuals, opposed to the people who claim those credentials, and for excellent reasons. Even those who on any given issue make appeals to the authority of selected scientists or experts will discount or reject equivalent authority when it does not confirm cherished biases.”

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Monbiot on environmental fixes

by Judith Curry

George Monbiot has published an interesting essay in the Guardian entitled “Lets face it:  none of our environmental fixes break the planet-wrecking project.”  The subtitle to the article is “All of us in the green movement are lost before the planet’s real problem: not too little fossil fuel but too much.”

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Anticipating the Climate Black Swan

by Judith Curry

I just received the reviews on the manuscript I submitted to special issue of the journal Climatic Change, entitled “Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty.”  Overall, the review was pretty mild.  One comment from the editor was about my paragraph that mentioned “black swans.”

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A prediction market for climate outcomes

by Judith Curry

I am a strong believer that academic freedom is essential for scientific progress, and such freedom includes the right to be “wrong.”  In fact, scientists can often learn much from failed experiments and failed predictions.  However, for regulatory science and science for policy, should there be some premium on (and some reward for) actually being “right”?  How can we know what is “right” in the short term? Shi-Ling Hsu has a provocative new essay that advocates an entirely different path for evaluating climate science that draws upon an institution that is truly independent: markets.
.

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Tornado madness

by Judith Curry

I’ve been pretty clear about where I stand with regards to the attribution of extreme events to global warming, e.g. see this thread.  The recent tornado outbreak in the southeast U.S. has spawned a number of statements and articles about the cause of the outbreak including, inevitably, global warming.

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Uncertainty in Catastrophe Modeling

by Judith Curry

Roger Pielke Jr. has a very interesting post on uncertainty in catastrophe modeling.  The basis for the post is an interview with Karen Clark.  Karen Clark developed the first catastrophe model, and is worried that these models are being given more credit and influence than they deserve.

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Brain sprain

by Judith Curry

There is an interesting new paper in press in Behavioral and Brain Science that is generating substantial discussion in the blogosphere, entitled “Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory.”  Perhaps this article can provide us with some insights on the climate debate.

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