Category Archives: Attribution

by Judith Curry

The recent pause in global surface temperature rise does not, in itself, materially alter the risks  of substantial warming of the Earth by the end of this century. – UK Met Office

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by Patrick Brown

How we interpret the current slow-down in the rate of global warming depends very much on the length of the ‘leash’ in the true climate system (i.e., how large internal variability is).

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by Judith Curry

In the end, the so-called scientific consensus on global warming doesn’t look like much like consensus when scientists are struggling to explain the intricacies of the earth’s climate system, or uttering the word “uncertainty” with striking regularity. – Nate Cohn

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by Judith Curry

So, exactly how are the oceans sequestering heat below 700 m?  And how might this heat return to the surface to impact the surface climate?

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by Judith Curry

Is global warming slowing down? – David Appell

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by Shaun Lovejoy

When the International Meteorological Organization defined the first climate normal from 1900 to 1930, the belief was that the climate was constant, and that the newly defined climate ‘normal’ would give a close approximation to the climate.

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by Vaughan Pratt

The title of this post is taken from my AGU Fall Meeting poster presentation on the afternoon of Tuesday Dec. 4 (tomorrow).

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by Judith Curry

The recent articles in the Daily Mail and the Guardian are generating heated reactions – more heat than light.  Lets break down the arguments on both side and assess them systematically.

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by Judith Curry

Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming. – Nature

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by Judith Curry

These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. – Wallace et al.

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by Judith Curry

Much is being made of Hansen’s ‘loaded dice’ as a metaphor for the changing climate.  I think we should be talking about ‘fuzzy dice.’

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by Judith Curry

Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases. These findings are stronger than those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on global warming. In its 2007 report, the I.P.C.C. concluded only that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans.  –  Richard Muller, NYT op-ed

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by Judith Curry

“Climate dice”, describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively “loaded” in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming.  We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were “caused” by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming. – Hansen, Sato, Ruedy

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by Judith Curry

The latest issue of the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society has published a collection of papers that illustrate different methodologies for attributing causes of recent extreme weather events.

Attribution of extreme events shortly after their occurrence stretches the current state-of-theart of climate change assessment. To help foster the growth of this science, this article illustrates some approaches to answering questions about the role of human factors, and the relative role of different natural factors, for six specific extreme weather or climate events of 2011. – TC Petersen, PA Stott, S. Herring

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