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Author Archives: curryja
Believing Science
by Thomas G. Brown
.
At six, my son began his dinosaur phase. Like many precocious youngsters, he had the multisyllabic names mastered, could cite the diet of the dinosaurs and in some cases knew the height and weight. At a time when Jurassic Park was still on the drawing board, my son lived and breathed dinosaurs. Somewhere in our attic collection sits a set of prehistoric creatures fashioned in molded plastic — figures that my son never doubted were true representations of the original.
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Long before computer aided reconstruction of skeletal remains became possible, artistic representation of scientific conjecture has been used to ignite the imagination of a public eager for scientific stories while unable (or unwilling) to grasp the methods used in the analysis. And textbook editors have often found the artists’ depictions more compelling than the scientific results–the most enduring images of dinosaurs are not the fossils, bones and dating methods but the flesh and blood fiction of a Jurassic Park. And the enduring images of evolution are not the robustness of genetics and the amazing adaptation of species in response to environmental changes. Instead, the general public is treated to artistic representations of evolutionary ancestry that may, or may not, fit the latest genome research.
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Posted in Communication, Scientific method
U.S. to kill funding for the IPCC?
by Judith Curry
Rick Piltz at Climate Science Watch reports that the U.S. House of Representatives votes 244-179 to kill funding for the UN IPCC.
Epistemology of Disagreement
by Judith Curry
For the paper that I am writing on uncertainty and the IPCC, I am including a section on “Consensus, Disagreement, and Argument Justification.” While googling around on this this topic, I encountered a fascinating body of work by Princeton philosopher Thomas Kelly, which I find mind-blowingly relevant to the climate conflict. Here are some excerpts from a few of his papers that I found to be particularly provocative.
Posted in Scientific method
On the consilience of evidence argument
On the Uncertainty and the AR5 thread, Fred Moolten and Paul Dunmore provide starkly different arguments for reasoning about multiple lines of evidence. This issue gets to the heart of the source of much disagreement in the scientific debate about climate change.
Posted in Uncategorized
Attribution of Extreme Events: Part II
by Judith Curry
In Part I, I was very unconvinced by strategies for attributing extreme events to global warming. Today, two new papers have been published in Nature that attribute the recent heavy rains to global warming. For a summary, see this article linked to at Huffington Post. The article said:
Posted in Attribution
Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming: Part II
by Judith Curry
Part I addressed the mid-20th century surface temperature “bump” (peaking circa 1940). The IPCC AR4 states in the figure caption for FAQ3.1, Figure 1:
From about 1940 to 1970 the increasing industrialisation following World War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling, and increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed warming after the mid-1970s.
Posted in Data and observations
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part XI: Convinced or Unconvinced?
by Judith Curry
Josh’s Valentine cartoon has the caption “Share the Love, Man” with a valentine aimed at Lisbon. Almost three weeks after the Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation, is anything new evident from the participants that is of relevance to reconciliation?
Posted in Sociology of science
The Principles of Reasoning. Part III: Logic and climatology
by Terry Oldberg
copyright by Terry Oldberg 2011
As originally planned, this essay was to end after Part II. However, Dr. Curry has asked me to address the topic of logic and climatology in a Part III. By the following remarks I respond to her request.
I focus upon the methodologies of the pair of inquiries that were conducted by IPCC Working Group 1 (WG1) in reaching the conclusions, in its year 2007 report, that:
- “There is considerable confidence that Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change…” [1] and
- the equilibrium climate sensitivity (TECS) is “likely” to lie in the range 2oC to 4.5oC [2].
I address the question of whether these methodologies were logical.
Posted in Uncategorized
Blame on Heartland, Cato, Marshall, etc.
by Judith Curry
On the Chris Colose thread, Andy Lacis wrote:
So, like the tobacco companies before them, they have elected to muddy the waters by deliberately sowing misinformation to confuse and bamboozle the public understanding of what is happening with global climate.
Posted in Politics
Uncertainty and the IPCC AR5: Part II
by Judith Curry
I am currently digging into the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC AR5, pursuant to Part I and the paper that I am writing for Climate Change.
Posted in Uncertainty
(Forthcoming) New Surface Temperature Record
by Judith Curry
The preparation of a new land surface temperature record was heralded last week in this news article entitled “Professor counters global warming myths with data.” The article states:
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study was conducted with the intention of becoming the new, irrefutable consensus, simply by providing the most complete set of historical and modern temperature data yet made publicly available, so deniers and exaggerators alike can see the numbers.
So what is this all about?
Posted in Data and observations
Scale of the clean energy challenge
by Judith Curry
David Roberts at Grist has a really interesting post entitled “The gobsmackingly gargantuan challenge of shifting to clean energy.” The post is based upon an excellent presentation by Saul Griffith. Griffith considers a target of 450 ppm. The punchline of his analysis:
Posted in Energy
Spatio-temporal chaos
by Tomas Milanovic
There are scientists who equate chaos to randomness. I’d put that category at 90%.
There are scientists who equate chaos with Lorenz. They have seen the butterfly attractor picture one day or the other. They know that chaos is not randomness but not much more. I’d put that category at 9%.
There are then scientists who know what is chaos and really understand it. I’d put that category at 1% and much less for the climate scientists.
The chaos one could and should we be talking about as far as climate is concerned is spatio-temporal chaos.
Posted in Uncategorized
On Being a Scientist
by Judith Curry
The National Academies has published a new edition of its book:
ON BEING A SCIENTIST
A GUIDE TO RESPONSIBLE CONDUCT IN RESEARCH
Posted in Ethics
Decadal variability of clouds
by Robert Ellison (Chief Hydrologist)
•
The theory and estimation of the role of cloud in changing Earth’s dynamic energy balance is an area of fundamental weakness in climate science. Low level stratiform cloud forms over cool ocean water and dissipates over warm. The Pacific Ocean is where sea surface temperature (SST) varies most. SST changes dramatically across the Pacific Ocean as a result of a shifting balance between cold, turbulent, nutrient rich and acidic water rising in the eastern Pacific and the suppression of upwelling of sub-surface currents by a warm surface layer. A thermally enhanced satellite image as of the 7th of February 2011 can be found at this NOAA site. It shows the ‘V’ shaped wedge of cold water typical of the 20 to 40 year cool La Niña dominant mode of the Pacific multi-decadal pattern. It covers a good part of the planet.
Posted in Uncategorized
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part X: Alarmists vs Deniers
by Judith Curry
On Jan 28, a group of climate scientists supporting the IPCC consensus wrote a letter to members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senators.
On Feb 8, a group of scientists skeptical of the IPCC consensus countered with their letter to members of the U.S. Congress.
Posted in Sociology of science
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part IX: Chris Colose’s Comment
by Judith Curry
Renewed attention (e.g. Tamino) is being given to Chris Colose’s comment that was originally posted on the thread Education versus Endocrination:
Posted in Sociology of science
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part VIII: McKitrick’s Comments
by Judith Curry
Prior to the Lisbon Workshop, the participants were asked to write a 2 page essay with their thoughts on the topic of the Workshop. There were some very interesting and provocative statements. Ross McKitrick has published his statement here (h/t Bishop Hill). The section headings are:
- The Key to Intellectual Freedom in Economics: No Society Statements
- The Unintended Consequences of the IPCC
Posted in Sociology of science
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part VII: Ravetz speaks
Just in from Tallbloke:
Jerry [Ravetz] has written a new, short, clear essay to try to clarify some issues of misunderstanding of what he is philosophising about on my blog concerning truth and PNS [Post Normal Science].
Posted in Sociology of science
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation: Part VI
by Judith Curry
The recent dust-up between Eric Steig and O’Donnell et al. is an interesting case study as we ponder the issue of reconciliation. This dust-up is in regard to the analysis of temperatures on Antarctica:
Posted in Sociology of science
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part V: The Science is not Settled
by Judith Curry
In Part IV, we explored the kerfuffle surrounding Fred Pearce’s attribution of “the science is settled” to Gavin Schmidt. Kim summarizes it this way:
The great irony, as Shub has pointed out elsewhere, is that here we have alarmists fighting like cats and dogs to make sure it is well understood that the science is not settled.
Well, that is more of a reconciliation than any of us could have hoped for, for all of us to agree that the science is not settled. Even Joe Romm is incensed by the “science is settled” statement (see here and here). The title of Romm’s 2nd post “Fabricated quote used to discredit scientist” adds a whole new dimension: a scientist associated with the “science is settled” statement is discredited. Wow.
So where did “the science is settled” come from? Manacker provides some history. It seems that journos and politicians are the main ones using this phrase. But many scientists have used words that sound similar. There is at least one instance of a leading IPCC scientist using these words, that I am aware of.
Posted in Policy
Slaying a greenhouse dragon. Part III: discussion
By Judith Curry
In Part I, we critiqued Claes Johnson’s chapters in the book Slaying the Sky Dragon. In Part II, I have posted a published article by Martin Hertzberg, who authored a chapter in the Dragon book. My original motivation for doing these threads is to try to lay to rest the debate over the fundamental physics of infrared radiative emission of gases such as CO2 and H2O.
Posted in Greenhouse effect
Slaying a greenhouse dragon. Part II
by Judith Curry
Martin Hertzberg, one of the authors of Slaying the Sky Dragon, has requested that we assess his paper (published in E&E). Since we had so much “fun” with Part I, I said sure.
Posted in Greenhouse effect
Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation: Part IV
by Judith Curry
Fred Pearce’s article in the New Scientist is creating a stir in the climate blogosphere. Fred, a participant in the Workshop, wrote:
But the leaders of mainstream climate science turned down the gig, including NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, who said the science was settled so there was nothing to discuss.
Across the spectrum, participants were mostly united in disagreeing with Schmidt. Climate science, they said, is much less certain than the IPCC mainstreamers say, and peace can be found only if all accept what they dubbed “the uncertainty monster”.
Posted in Sociology of science
Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds
by Judith Curry
Juoakola spotted an interesting paper, that I missed when it was originally published:
NONLINEARITIES, FEEDBACKS AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM
JOSÉ A. RIAL , ROGER A. PIELKE SR., MARTIN BENISTON , MARTIN CLAUSSEN, JOSEP CANADELL , PETER COX, HERMANN HELD , NATHALIE DE NOBLET-DUCOUDRÉ , RONALD PRINN, JAMES F. REYNOLDS and JOSÉ D. SALAS
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks