Author Archives: curryja

[G]iving a very high level of confidence requires a check that you’re not confusing the probability inside one argument with the probability of the question as a whole. – NotWrong

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363 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

Skeptics vs academics

Posted on October 5, 2013 | 946 comments

by Judith Curry

I am trying to understand how sceptics and warmists can look at pretty much the same information and come up with two very different conclusions – Mike Haseler, the Scottish Sceptic

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946 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

IPCC: fit for its purpose?

Posted on October 4, 2013 | 184 comments

The IPCC is showing typical signs of middle age, including weight gain, a growing rigidity of viewpoint, and overconfidence in its methods. It did a great job in the early days, but it’s become ritualized and bureaucratic, issuing big bulk reports that do little to answer the hard questions facing policymakers. – David Keith, as cited by Fred Pearce

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184 Comments

Posted in IPCC

Did the AR5 take the ‘dangerous’ out of AGW?

Posted on October 3, 2013 | 352 comments

by Judith Curry

Section 12.5.5 in the WG1 Report provides some important insights on what is most commonly regarded as the ‘dangerous’ aspects of AGW.

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352 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

Spinning the climate model – observation comparison: Part II

Posted on October 2, 2013 | 746 comments

by Judith Curry

IPCC model global warming projections have done much better than you think. – Dana Nuccitelli

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746 Comments

Posted in climate models, IPCC

Negotiating the IPCC SPM

Posted on October 1, 2013 | 319 comments

by Judith Curry

A fascinating look at the how the deliberations in Stockholm influenced the final IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policy Makers

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319 Comments

Posted in IPCC

IPCC: solar variations don’t matter

Posted on October 1, 2013 | 293 comments

Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due to GHG. – IPCC AR5 Chapter 8

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293 Comments

Posted in IPCC, Solar

IPCC’s pause ‘logic’

Posted on September 30, 2013 | 426 comments

by Judith Curry

Well here it is, the pause discussion is buried in Box 9.2 of the IPCC Working Group I Report.

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426 Comments

Posted in Attribution, IPCC

How the IPCC forgot to mention the pause

Posted on September 29, 2013 | 327 comments

by Judith Curry

[Marotzke] attributed the oversight to a tendency of each group working on each of the 14 chapters to rely on some other chapter to deal with the issue. And anyone who was thinking about it at all thought some other chapter should handle the issue. – CS Monitor

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327 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

2 from the Australian Financial Review

Posted on September 29, 2013 | 185 comments

The latest IPCC report will not bridge the ideological divide on climate change so it is up to governments to find the sensible centre. – Warwick McKibben

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185 Comments

Posted in Policy

IPCC diagnosis – permanent paradigm paralysis

Posted on September 28, 2013 | 658 comments

by Judith Curry

Diagnosis: paradigm paralysis, caused by motivated reasoning, oversimplification, and consensus seeking; worsened and made permanent by a vicious positive feedback effect at the climate science-policy interface.

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658 Comments

Posted in IPCC, Policy, Scientific method

IPCC scientists recommend having the Earth put down

Posted on September 28, 2013 | 150 comments

by Judith Curry

Earth is in a lot of pain, folks. Time to think about sending it off peacefully, for its own sake. Look, at the end of the day, Earth is 4.5 billion years old and had a great life. The last thing you want to do is wait and draw this difficult ordeal out any further. – The Onion

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150 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

95% (?)

Posted on September 27, 2013 | 524 comments

Ok, it is now official:

“The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years”

It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.

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524 Comments

Posted in Attribution, IPCC