Climate Etc.

A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those made in the Fourth National Climate Assessment from the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

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185 Comments

Posted in Energy

Early 20th century global warming

Posted on January 23, 2019 by curryja | 377 comments

by Judith Curry

A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950. Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.

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377 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

Posted on January 21, 2019 by niclewis | 92 comments

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.

Contrary to what the paper indicates:

Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

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92 Comments

Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans

Ocean Heat Content Surprises

Posted on January 14, 2019 by curryja | 271 comments

by Judith Curry

There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications.

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271 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Sea levels, atmospheric pressure and land temperature during glacial maxima

Posted on January 4, 2019 by curryja | 86 comments

by Alan Cannell

The new tropical lands: a carbon sink during formation and huge source of carbon dioxide and methane when lost to the sea.

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86 Comments

Posted in Oceans

Reconstructing a dataset of observed global temperatures 1950-2016 from human and natural influences

Posted on January 3, 2019 by curryja | 191 comments

by Frank Bosse

A demonstration that multidecadal variation since 1950 leads to overestimation of the Transient Climate Response (TCR).

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191 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

Posted on January 2, 2019 by curryja | 110 comments

by Judith Curry

“You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine Hayhoe, co-author of the 4th National Climate Assessment Report.

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110 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty

Cliff Mass: victim of academic political bullying

Posted on December 12, 2018 by curryja | 148 comments

by Judith Curry

There is a disturbing story coming out of the University of Washington surrounding Cliff Mass.

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148 Comments

Posted in Politics, Sociology of science

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

Posted on December 11, 2018 by niclewis | 220 comments

By Nic Lewis

An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO₂ emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections.

AR5 claims that CO₂-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations indicate that it would halve. Continue reading →

220 Comments

Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks

Politics of climate expertise

Posted on December 3, 2018 by curryja | 339 comments

by Judith Curry

“Concerning the inability of expert knowledge to resolve environmental controversy and the pressing need for a pragmatic reframing of policy problems to allow for solutions based on bipartisan values.”

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339 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

Posted on November 29, 2018 by curryja | 145 comments

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

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145 Comments

Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

Posted on November 27, 2018 by curryja | 193 comments

by Judith Curry

I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

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193 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Oceans

CAGW: a ‘snarl’ word?

Posted on November 26, 2018 by curryja | 283 comments

The term ‘CAGW’ has both appropriate and inappropriate usage.

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283 Comments

Posted in Communication

Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

Posted on November 24, 2018 by curryja | 202 comments

by Judith Curry

In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

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202 Comments

Posted in Energy

Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

Posted on November 23, 2018 by niclewis | 47 comments

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story Continue reading →

47 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty

Admitting mistakes in a ‘hostile environment’

Posted on November 19, 2018 by curryja | 262 comments

by Judith Curry

Reflections on Nic Lewis’ audit of the Resplandy et al. paper.

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262 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

Posted on November 17, 2018 by niclewis | 47 comments

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O₂/N₂ ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These are combined to produce an estimate (ΔAPO_Obs) of changes in atmospheric potential oxygen since 1991 (ΔAPO). They break this series down into four components, including one attributable to ocean warming (ΔAPO_Climate). By estimating the other three, they isolate the implied ΔAPO_Climate and use it to estimate the change in ocean heat content. In two recent articles, here and here, I set out why I thought the trend in ΔAPO_Climate – from which they derived their ocean heat uptake estimate – was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated. Continue reading →

Climate Etc.

Hurricanes & climate change: landfalls

Hurricanes and Climate Change: Attribution

Hurricanes & climate change: detection

Sea level rise whiplash

Climate hypochondria and tribalism vs. ‘winning’

Hearing – Climate Change: The Impacts and the Need to Act

Congressional hearings

Reassessing the RCPs

Early 20th century global warming

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

Ocean Heat Content Surprises

Sea levels, atmospheric pressure and land temperature during glacial maxima

Reconstructing a dataset of observed global temperatures 1950-2016 from human and natural influences

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

Cliff Mass: victim of academic political bullying

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

Politics of climate expertise

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

CAGW: a ‘snarl’ word?

Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments

Admitting mistakes in a ‘hostile environment’

Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction

The catastrophe narrative

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