(Forthcoming) New Surface Temperature Record

by Judith Curry

The preparation of a new land surface temperature record was heralded last week in this news article entitled “Professor counters global warming myths with data.”  The article states:

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study was conducted with the intention of becoming the new, irrefutable consensus, simply by providing the most complete set of historical and modern temperature data yet made publicly available, so deniers and exaggerators alike can see the numbers.

So what is this all about?

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Scale of the clean energy challenge

by Judith Curry

David Roberts at Grist has a really interesting post entitled “The gobsmackingly gargantuan challenge of shifting to clean energy.”  The post is based upon an excellent presentation by Saul Griffith.   Griffith considers a target  of 450 ppm.  The punchline of his analysis:

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Spatio-temporal chaos

by Tomas Milanovic

There are scientists who equate chaos to randomness. I’d put that category at 90%.

There are scientists who equate chaos with Lorenz. They have seen the butterfly attractor picture one day or the other. They know that chaos is not randomness but not much more. I’d put that category at 9%.

There are then scientists who know what is chaos and really understand it. I’d put that category at 1% and much less for the climate scientists.

The chaos one could and should we be talking about as far as climate is concerned is spatio-temporal chaos.

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On Being a Scientist

by Judith Curry

The National Academies has published a new edition of its book:

ON BEING A SCIENTIST
A GUIDE TO RESPONSIBLE CONDUCT IN RESEARCH

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Decadal variability of clouds

by Robert Ellison (Chief Hydrologist)

The theory and estimation of the role of cloud in changing Earth’s dynamic energy balance is an area of fundamental weakness in climate science.  Low level stratiform cloud forms over cool ocean water and dissipates over warm.  The Pacific Ocean is where sea surface temperature (SST) varies most.  SST changes dramatically across the Pacific Ocean as a result of a shifting balance between cold, turbulent, nutrient rich and acidic water rising in the eastern Pacific and the suppression of upwelling of sub-surface currents by a warm surface layer.  A thermally enhanced satellite image as of the 7th of February 2011 can be found at this NOAA site.  It shows the ‘V’ shaped wedge of cold water typical of the 20 to 40 year cool La Niña dominant mode of the Pacific multi-decadal pattern.  It covers a good part of the planet.

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part X: Alarmists vs Deniers

by Judith Curry

On Jan 28, a group of climate scientists supporting the IPCC consensus wrote a letter to members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senators.

On Feb 8, a group of scientists skeptical of the IPCC consensus countered with their letter to members of the U.S. Congress.

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part IX: Chris Colose’s Comment

by Judith Curry

Renewed attention (e.g. Tamino) is being given to Chris Colose’s comment that was originally posted on the thread Education versus Endocrination:

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part VIII: McKitrick’s Comments

by Judith Curry

Prior to the Lisbon Workshop, the participants were asked to write a 2 page essay with their thoughts on the topic of the Workshop.  There were some very interesting and provocative statements.  Ross McKitrick has published his statement here (h/t Bishop Hill).  The section headings are:

  • The Key to Intellectual Freedom in Economics:  No Society Statements
  • The Unintended Consequences of the IPCC

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part VII: Ravetz speaks

Just in from Tallbloke:

Jerry [Ravetz] has written a new, short, clear essay to try to clarify some issues of misunderstanding of what he is philosophising about on my blog concerning truth and PNS [Post Normal Science].

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation: Part VI

by Judith Curry

The recent dust-up between Eric Steig and O’Donnell et al. is an interesting case study as we ponder the issue of reconciliation.   This dust-up is in regard to the analysis of temperatures on Antarctica:

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation. Part V: The Science is not Settled

by Judith Curry

In Part IV, we explored the kerfuffle surrounding Fred Pearce’s attribution of “the science is settled” to Gavin Schmidt.   Kim summarizes it this way:

The great irony, as Shub has pointed out elsewhere, is that here we have alarmists fighting like cats and dogs to make sure it is well understood that the science is not settled.

Well, that is more of a reconciliation than any of us could have hoped for, for all of us to agree that the science is not settled.  Even Joe Romm is incensed by the “science is settled” statement (see here and here).  The title of Romm’s 2nd post “Fabricated quote used to discredit scientist” adds a whole new dimension:  a scientist associated with the “science is settled” statement is discredited. Wow.

So where did “the science is settled” come from?  Manacker provides some history.  It seems that journos and politicians are the main ones using this phrase.   But many scientists have used words that sound similar.  There is at least one instance of a leading IPCC scientist using these words, that I am aware of.

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Slaying a greenhouse dragon. Part III: discussion

By Judith Curry

In Part I, we critiqued Claes Johnson’s chapters in the book Slaying the Sky Dragon.   In Part II, I have posted a published article by Martin Hertzberg, who authored a chapter in the Dragon book.   My original motivation for doing these threads is to try to lay to rest the debate over the fundamental physics of infrared radiative emission of gases such as CO2 and H2O.

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Slaying a greenhouse dragon. Part II

by Judith Curry

Martin Hertzberg, one of the authors of Slaying the Sky Dragon, has requested that we assess his paper (published in E&E).  Since we had so much “fun” with Part I, I said sure.

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation: Part IV

by Judith Curry

Fred Pearce’s article in the New Scientist is creating a stir in the climate blogosphere.  Fred, a participant in the Workshop, wrote:

But the leaders of mainstream climate science turned down the gig, including NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, who said the science was settled so there was nothing to discuss.

Across the spectrum, participants were mostly united in disagreeing with Schmidt. Climate science, they said, is much less certain than the IPCC mainstreamers say, and peace can be found only if all accept what they dubbed “the uncertainty monster”.

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Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds

by Judith Curry

Juoakola spotted an interesting paper, that I missed when it was originally published:

NONLINEARITIES, FEEDBACKS AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM

JOSÉ A. RIAL , ROGER A. PIELKE SR., MARTIN BENISTON , MARTIN CLAUSSEN, JOSEP CANADELL , PETER COX, HERMANN HELD , NATHALIE DE NOBLET-DUCOUDRÉ , RONALD PRINN, JAMES F. REYNOLDS and JOSÉ D. SALAS

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Politics and predicting the Pakistan floods

by Judith Curry

My Georgia Tech colleagues Peter Webster, Violeta Toma and Hyemi Kim have a new paper out entitled “Were the Pakistan floods predictable?”  The topic of the 2010 Pakistan floods were discussed on previous threads here and here.

The punchline of this paper is:

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation: Part III

by Judith Curry

At the Workshop, there was an interesting  presentation made by by Jeroen van der Sluijs, who also presented this at the public event.   The talk addresses paradigms of uncertain risk, and how to act under conditions of uncertainty.

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Slaying a greenhouse dragon

by Judith Curry

On the Pierrehumbert thread, I stated:

So, if you have followed the Climate Etc. threads, the numerous threads on this topic at Scienceofdoom, and read Pierrehumbert’s article, is anyone still unconvinced about the Tyndall gas effect and its role in maintaining planetary temperatures?   I’ve read Slaying the Sky Dragon and originally intended a rubuttal, but it would be too overwhelming to attempt this and probably pointless.

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation: Part II

by Judith Curry

Here are some reactions from the Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Debate.  These are my personal reflections, and include some of the perspectives and statements made by others (without any attribution of names).  First, I would like to thank  Jerome Ravetz and Angela Pereira for organizing this Workshop.

The first issue is what exactly is meant by reconciliation, and who actually wants it?  Reconciliation is defined (wikipedia) as re-establishing normal relations between belligerents: re-establish dialogue, reinstate balance,  restore civility.  It is not clear that there has ever been normal relations between, say, the mainstream IPCC researchers and  the skeptical climate blogosphere. Consensus building was not seen as having any part in a reconciliation.  Rather there was a desire to conduct impassioned debates nonviolently, and to create an arena where we can fight a more honest fight over the science and the policy options.

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Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Change Debate

Update:  WUWT has posted the rationale statement prepared by the workshop organizers, Jerome Ravetz and Angela Pereira

by Judith Curry

This week, I will be in Lisbon attending a Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Change Debate.  The Workshop was conceptualized by Jerome RavetzSilvio Funtowicz, Angela Pereira, James Risbey, and Jeroen van der Sluijs.

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Probabilistic(?) estimates of climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry

James Annan (with Hargreaves) has a new paper out, entitled “On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.”  Here is the abstract:

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AMS Annual Meeting

Update:  notes on Trenberth’s presentation here.  Ryan Maue comments at WUWT.

by Judith Curry

The Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) will be held this week (Jan 23-27)   in Seattle, WA.    Program details are provided here.  An overview of what is going on at the meeting is provided in here.

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A disastrous truth

by Judith Curry

The Financial Times has an interesting article entitled “A disastrous truth” by Simon Kuper (h/t Roger Pielke Jr.).  The title is a clever play on the words of Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth.”

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Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming

by Peter Webster

The mid-20th century temperature “bump” (peaking circa 1940) is an interesting feature of the temperature record.  This “bump” was discussed in an email from Tom Wigley to Phil Jones referring to a WUWT post that  discusses a paper by Thompson et al.

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Politics of Climate Expertise: Part IV

by Judith Curry

Donna Laframboise at NoFrakkingConsensus has a new post entitled “IPCC Nobel Laureates Lack Scientific Credibility,” with the subheading:

IPCC insiders say many of those who shared in the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have weak scientific credentials. They were chosen because they are of the right gender or come from the right country.

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