by Judith Curry
Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project aims to “reveal the complete truth about the climate crisis” and “bringing the facts about the climate crisis into the mainstream and engaging the public in conversation about how to solve it.” Gore’s promotional video accuses “Big Oil” and “Big Coal” of evil manipulation.
Posted in Communication
by Judith Curry
Much has been written on the need for better communication of climate science and for rebuilding trust in the wake of Climategate. Such efforts are generally dismissed by climate skeptics as manipulative and further increase distrust. But surely there must be better modes of communication between climate scientists and the lay public?
Posted in Communication
by Judith Curry
The consensus on anthropogenic climate change provided by the IPCC is the source of much controversy. Central to the controversy is the meaning and implications of “consensus,” in both scientific and sociological contexts.
Posted in Scientific method
by Judith Curry
Two key questions in the climate debate are:
Posted in Attribution
by Tony Brown
The IPCC AR4 projected sea level rise in 2100 to range from 18-59 cm, depending on the emission scenario. More recent projections are for a 1 m sea level rise in 2100 [here and here]. Apart from the issue of uncertainty and reliability of these future sea level projections, how do these magnitudes of sea level rise compare with historic variations in sea level rise?
Posted in History
by Judith Curry
I’ve just come across three really interesting words, that I have somehow missed up to this point in my studies on uncertainty and ignorance: agnotology, agnoiology and cognitronics.
Posted in Uncertainty
by David Ritson
After the Copenhagen meeting and Himalaya-gate the IPCC has been faced with serious credibility problems. Himalayan-gate was largely dismissed by the establishment loyalists as a minor error that slipped through the system and was then corrected. What was so disquieting was not he occurrence of a mistake but the subsequent reaction of the IPCC chairman, Dr. Pachauri. Dr Pachauri, when questioned in an interview (youtube), not only reaffirmed the correctness of the original report but characterized the Indian government report, whose disaster-predictions were measured in centuries not decades, as “voodoo science”. Only after a month’s delay, and under pressure, was the mistake admitted (youtube).
Posted in IPCC
by Judith Curry
Nic Lewis sent me the following message in an email:
I have some news to report on a response to the letter forming this post from the IPCC authors. Gabi Hegerl, joint coordinating lead author of Chapter 9, emailed me late yesterday afternoon to say that she had brought my letter to the attention of the WG1 AR5 Co-Chairs to initiate the appropriate handling of the alleged error, and that it will be dealt with in accordance with the recently approved “IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors in IPCC Assessment Reports, Synthesis Reports, Special Reports or Methodology Reports.
Posted in IPCC
JC note: Pursuant to Nic’s post on “The IPCC’s alteration of Forster & Gregory’s model-independent climate sensitivity results,” he has sent a letter to Gabi Hegerl, who was coordinating lead author on chapter 9 of the IPCC AR4.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 (AR4) contained various errors, including the well publicised overestimate of the speed at which Himalayan glaciers would melt. However, the IPCC’s defenders point out that such errors were inadvertent and inconsequential: they did not undermine the scientific basis of AR4. Here I demonstrate an error in the core scientific report (WGI) that came about through the IPCC’s alteration of a peer-reviewed result. This error is highly consequential, since it involves the only instrumental evidence that is climate-model independent cited by the IPCC as to the probability distribution of climate sensitivity, and it substantially increases the apparent risk of high warming from increases in CO2 concentration.
Posted in IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
A new paper has been published in PNAS entitled “Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.”
Posted in Attribution
by Judith Curry
In the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the EPA (discussed previously here) included this footnote:
“For views opposing EPA’s, see, e.g., Dawidoff, The Civil Heretic, N. Y. Times Magazine 32 (March 29, 2009). The Court, we caution, endorses no particular view of the complicated issues related to carbon dioxide emissions and climate change.”
Posted in Skeptics
by Judith Curry
The title for this post comes from a post at Pew Climate, highlighting a big three-part series featured on ScientificAmerican.com to explain the link between climate change extreme weather.
Posted in Attribution
by Judith Curry
On the previous sea surface temperature thread, I stated “Do you for one minute believe that the uncertainty in global average sea surface temperature in the 19th century is 0.3C? I sure as heck don’t.” Sharper00 challenged me to further support this statement, which provides the motivation for this thread along with the recent release of the latest version of the Hadley Centre SST dataset (HADSST3).
Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
Chris Mooney has a new post up entitled “A little knowledge: why the biggest problem with climate skeptics may be their confidence.” Mooney’s post responds to Kahan et al.’s new study entitled “The tragedy of the risk-perception commons: culture conflict, rationality conflict, and climate change.”
Posted in Communication, Skeptics
The lead statement to the IPCC press release announcing their renewables report stated “Close to 80 percent of the world’s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century if backed by the right enabling policies a new report shows.” I believe that the only way this could happen is if there were multiple miracles but don’t take my word for it. Do you your own analysis.
Posted in Energy
by Tony Brown
Over the years I have become intrigued at the manner in which historic surface temperature records- that were never intended to be more than a broad reflection of the micro climate around them- have been used as if they were highly accurate scientific data and subsequently used to inform policy. I have written two articles about their historic accuracy, both of which can be accessed through this link.
Posted in Data and observations
by Judith Curry
I am visiting my 9 month old granddaughter Clara this week, which provides motivation for this post about intergenerational equity and justice.
Posted in Ethics
by Don Aitkin
This essay was prompted by the recent thread ‘Understanding(?) the Conflict’. On this website, and elsewhere over the last few years, I have seen a great variety of explanations of how AGW orthodoxy got to the position of authority that it now enjoys in the Western world. I do not have a complete answer — at least, not a simple one — but I think that the question I have used as the title for this essay is an important one, and what follows is an attempt to respond to it.
Posted in Week in review
by Judith Curry
The Center for Climate Change Law at the Columbia Law School and the Republic of the Marshall Islands recently co-sponsored a conference on “Threatened Island Nations: Legal Implications of a Changing Climate.”
Posted in Climate change impacts
by Judith Curry
A new paper on sea level variations over the past two millennia is receiving substantial attention.
Posted in Attribution, Data and observations
by Judith Curry
The current issues surrounding conflict of interest guidelines for the IPCC are summarized in this recent news release from the U.S. House Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight:
Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Chairman Paul Broun (R-GA) today sent a letter to United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, calling for the adoption of a Conflict of Interest Policy for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“Despite my previous requests for the IPCC to adopt and enforce more stringent policies related to conflicts of interest and the use and citation of ‘gray literature,’ the IPCC has delayed action.”
In the letter, Broun wrote that it is “imperative for the IPCC to adopt a rigorous conflict of interest policy before its 34th Session, tentatively scheduled to take place in January 2012.”
by Judith Curry
Pursuant to the controversy surrounding the last analysis of sea level rise from the University of Colorado, I spotted this article entitled “What will climate change and sea level rise mean for barrier islands?”
Posted in Climate change impacts
by Judith Curry
The events of the past week have provided some potential insights into the conflict over the climate debate among the climate establishment, McIntyre & McKitrick, skeptical scientists, the extended peer community of the climate blogosphere, and a public that is trying to to make sense of it all.
Posted in Skeptics
by Judith Curry
Mark Lynas has a new post up entitled “Questions the IPCC must now urgently answer.” It is even more powerful than his previous post. I may not be able to predict the climate, but I think I can predict certain outcomes in the climate debate.
Posted in IPCC
