Defending the Uncertainty Monster paper

Posted on October 27, 2011 by | 122 comments

by Judith Curry

I’ve completed a revised draft of my response the to Reply to our Uncertainty Monster paper.

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122 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

BEST(?) PR

Posted on October 26, 2011 by | 241 comments

by Judith Curry

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project is giving us much to discuss.  A number people have criticized the BEST PR in terms of posting the papers before the peer review process has completed, issuing a press release, etc.

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241 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Best of the BEST critiques

Posted on October 25, 2011 by | 419 comments

by Judith Curry

The new Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature product and the accompanying papers have generated considerable discussion.  Lets focus on the technical criticisms.

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419 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

IPCC and traceability

Posted on October 24, 2011 by | 342 comments

by Judith Curry

I just got the reviews on my reply to the rebuttal submitted regarding my uncertainty monster paper.  They take exception with my criticism of transparency of the IPCC’s attribution argument.

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342 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Imagining a post-IPCC world

Posted on October 23, 2011 by | 366 comments

by Judith Curry

Max Anacker writes:

Several posters have stated that it would be good to have a separate thread on “How should a post-IPCC world look?”

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366 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Changing minds

Posted on October 22, 2011 by | 487 comments

by Judith Curry

Fred Moolten poses the following challenge:

I would be interested in a post asking participants how their own views have evolved as a result of participation here (and their experiences elsewhere as well). I expect few epiphanies or conversions, but I would be disappointed if no-one acknowledges learning anything. I’m sure you would be too.

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487 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Berkeley Surface Temperatures: Released

Posted on October 20, 2011 by | 960 comments

by Judith Curry

The new surface temperature dataset developed by the Berkeley group is now available, along with four manuscripts that have been submitted for publication.

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960 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Laframboise on the IPCC

Posted on October 19, 2011 by | 1,092 comments

by Judith Curry

I’ve finished reading Donna Laframboise’s book “The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert: An Expose of the IPCC.”

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1,092 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Policy

Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster?

Posted on October 18, 2011 by | 271 comments

by Richard Saumarez

Many continuous signals are sampled so that they can be manipulated digitally.  We assume that the train of samples in the time domain gives a true picture of what the underlying signal is doing, but can we be sure that this is true and the signal isn’t doing something wildly different between samples?  Can we reconstruct the signal between samples and, more important, can we tell if the signal has been incorrectly sampled and is not a true representation of the signal?

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271 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

Self-organizing model of the atmosphere

Posted on October 17, 2011 by | 216 comments

by Frank Lemke

A recent post in our Global Warming Prediction Project discusses the question “What Drives Global Warming?” based on a self-organized interdependent nonlinear dynamic system of equations of 6 variables (ozone, aerosols, clouds, sun activity, CO2, global temperature). It also predicts using this system global warming 6 years ahead (monthly resolved) and it compares the known IPCC AR4 projections with this system prediction and the observed anomalies of the past 23 years.

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216 Comments

Posted in Attribution, climate models

Feedback in climate

Posted on October 16, 2011 by | 496 comments

by Chris Colose

There has been a lot of blog interest recently on feedback theory and climate sensitivity (e.g., Isaac Held, ClimateAudit, Science of Doom, Nick Stokes, one on control theory here at Climate Etc.).

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496 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Gender differences in the academic world: a reflection

Posted on October 15, 2011 by | 94 comments

by Don Aitkin

Our hostess ran a recent thread ‘On being a Radical scholar’, and she built it on article by Dr Kate Clancy, who wrote on the difficult situation of women who are doing their best to climb the academic ladder while also looking after children. I completely sympathised with her, and could identify with the stories that she heard at the Purdue conference that had prompted her essay.

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94 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Letter to the dragon slayers

Posted on October 15, 2011 by | 1,410 comments

by Judith Curry

A letter from Grant Petty provides a fitting finale to our engagement with the skydragons.

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1,410 Comments

Posted in Greenhouse effect

On being a radical scholar

Posted on October 14, 2011 by | 228 comments

by Judith Curry

There are two problems with the current criteria for tenure: they don’t reflect modern, interdisciplinary scholarship, and they don’t include metrics to evaluate influence and perspective beyond peer-reviewed publications.

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228 Comments

Posted in Open knowledge

Advocacy science and decision making

Posted on October 13, 2011 by | 209 comments

by Judith Curry

Partisan groups lobbying for preferred outcomes have a long history of the selective use of information to support predetermined conclusions. This is acceptable in politics, but not in science.  The motivations for such advocacy science may be a sincere desire to improve the protection of . .  ecosystems and frustration with decision-making processes that seem to give too little weight to longer term environmental considerations, or a cynical strategy to exploit the challenges that uncertainty poses to decision-making. Whatever the cause, making science advice itself partisan means it no longer deserves to be treated in any special way in the decision-making process. There is a serious risk that the long-term costs of merging advocacy with science advice would outweigh any short-term benefits of greater impact on a particular decision. If scientists do wish to increase the impact of science advice on decision-making, there are alternatives to advocacy in doing so. These approaches make the advice more amenable to decision-makers, while avoiding turning science advisors into partisan lobbyists.

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209 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Policy

The case(?) for climate change alarmism

Posted on October 12, 2011 by | 509 comments

by Judith Curry

“Rather than justifying a lack of response to climate change, the emphasis on uncertainty enlarges the risk and reinforces the responsibility for pursuing successful long-term mitigation policy,” according to a 2010 analysis by researchers at Sandia National Laboratory.

All things considered, alarmism seems like common sense to me.

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509 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

CO2 control knob technical discussion thread

Posted on October 11, 2011 by | 478 comments

by Judith Curry

The original thread for Andy Lacis’ post got derailed by non-technical comments.  This thread is STRICTLY for technical comments (heavy moderation will be imposed); make your general comments on the original thread.

478 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Climate, control theory, feedback: does it make sense?

Posted on October 10, 2011 by | 275 comments

by Richard Saumarez

You may wonder why a medic is writing a post on control theory in climate.

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275 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Atmospheric CO2: the greenhouse thermostat

Posted on October 9, 2011 by | 794 comments

by Andrew Lacis

The one year anniversary is soon approaching for the Science paper that we wrote a year ago to illustrate the nature of the terrestrial greenhouse effect. I describe here how this paper came to be.

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794 Comments

Posted in Greenhouse effect

USGCRP draft strategic plan

Posted on October 8, 2011 by | 282 comments

by Judith Curry

The public comment period for the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) 2012-2021 Strategic Plan is open until November 29, 2011.  Lets take a look at the draft plan.

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282 Comments

Posted in Policy

IPCC discussion thread

Posted on October 6, 2011 by | 721 comments

by Tony Brown

Posts in the thread on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC have raised a basic question regarding the credibility of the IPCC as the world’s foremost source of information on climate, and hence its future relevance.

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721 Comments

Posted in IPCC, Sociology of science

2011 Nobel Prize Winners in Physics and Chemistry

Posted on October 5, 2011 by | 120 comments

by Judith Curry

There are some climate-relevant stories associated with the 2011 Nobel Prize winners in Physics and Chemistry.

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120 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Climate crises: half a millennium ago

Posted on October 4, 2011 by | 299 comments

by Judith Curry

[A] key message within Gore’s Climate Reality Project was that our recent strange weather and accompanying social problems are inextricably linked to the climate crisis. And say what you will about Gore, that part seems increasingly true. What’s more, there’s nothing new about such cause-and-effect. According to a new study, climate change has played a significant role in several of the  crises of pre-industrial Europe and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere over the course of the 300 years.

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299 Comments

Posted in History

Climatic Change special issue on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC

Posted on October 4, 2011 by | 190 comments

by Judith Curry

It is now published:  the Climatic Change Special Issue on Guidance for Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty and Confidence in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change.

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190 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Sceptical about scepticism

Posted on October 3, 2011 by | 352 comments

by Judith Curry

Nature Climate Change published a review of the James Lawrence Powell’s book “The Inquisition of Climate Science.”  The review, written by Fred Pearce, is titled “Sceptical about Sceptics.”

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352 Comments

Posted in Skeptics