UK Parliament: IPCC 5th Assessment Review

Posted on December 18, 2013 by | 288 comments

by Judith Curry

The UK House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee has invited submissions to an inquiry on the IPCC 5th Assessment.

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288 Comments

Posted in IPCC

The blogosphere and thought leaders

Posted on December 17, 2013 by | 136 comments

by Judith Curry

Little boys and girls in ancient Athens grew up wanting to be philosophers. In Renaissance Florence they dreamed of becoming Humanists. But now a new phrase and a new intellectual paragon has emerged to command our admiration: The Thought Leader. – David Brooks

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136 Comments

Posted in Communication, Sociology of science

How far should we trust models?

Posted on December 16, 2013 by | 293 comments

by Judith Curry

In economics, climate science and public health, computer models help us decide how to act. But can we trust them? – Jon Turney

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293 Comments

Posted in climate models

Masters(?) of many trades

Posted on December 15, 2013 by | 179 comments

by Judith Curry

Our age reveres the specialist but humans are natural polymaths, at our best when we turn our minds to many things. – Robert Twigger

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179 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

Posted on December 12, 2013 by | 276 comments

by Judith Curry

. . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and Jerome Ravetz

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276 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Hearing: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather

Posted on December 11, 2013 by | 241 comments

by Judith Curry

The U.S. House Subcommittee on  Environment is holding a Hearing today: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather.

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241 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

Open thread

Posted on December 10, 2013 by | 198 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

198 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Pathological altruism

Posted on December 9, 2013 by | 461 comments

by Judith Curry

Pathological altruism can be conceived as behavior in which attempts to promote the welfare of another, or others, results instead in harm that an external observer would conclude was reasonably foreseeable.

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461 Comments

Posted in Policy

Public engagement and communicating uncertainty

Posted on December 8, 2013 by | 349 comments

by Judith Curry

Some interesting discussion this past week on the topic of public engagement and communicating climate uncertainty.

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349 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

Selection bias in climate model simulations

Posted on December 6, 2013 by | 162 comments

by Judith Curry

Selection biases in information processing occur when expectations affect behavior in a manner that makes those expectations come true.

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162 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Science Plan

Posted on December 5, 2013 by | 119 comments

by Judith Curry

The US CLIVAR Program has published a Science plan that provides a roadmap for the next 15 years [link].

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119 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Open thread

Posted on December 4, 2013 by | 287 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics into discussion; this thread will be more lightly moderated than topical threads.

287 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Blog commenting policy

Posted on December 3, 2013 by | 337 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s time for a discussion on blog commenting policy and moderation.

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337 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Has science lost its way?

Posted on December 1, 2013 by | 409 comments

by Judith Curry

“The journals want the papers that make the sexiest claims. And scientists believe that the way you succeed is having splashy papers in Science or Nature — it’s not bad for them if a paper turns out to be wrong, if it’s gotten a lot of attention.” – Michael Eisen

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409 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Impact(?) of natural variability on Nebraska drought

Posted on November 29, 2013 by | 266 comments

by Judith Curry

So, would you turn down a $44K grant to investigate the natural variability of drought in Nebraska?

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266 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

Is Earth in energy deficit?

Posted on November 28, 2013 by | 673 comments

by Steve McGee

Unlike many fiscal budgets, earth’s energy budget is widely believed to be in surplus.

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673 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Social cost of carbon: Part II

Posted on November 27, 2013 by | 385 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate change is an externality that is global, pervasive, long-term, and uncertain–but even though the scale  and complexity of this externality is unprecedented,  economic theory is well equipped for such problems–and advice based on rigorous economic analysis is any way preferred to wishy-washy thinking. – Richard Tol

Integrated Assessment Model-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. – Robert Pindyck

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385 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Reflection on reliability of climate models

Posted on November 25, 2013 by | 403 comments

by Judith Curry

Failure to communicate the relevant ‘weak link’ is sometimes under-appreciated as a critical element of science-based policy-making.

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403 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism: A climate for corruption?

Posted on November 24, 2013 by | 308 comments

Lets take a look at the new ‘Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage’ agreed to by the UNFCCC COP in Warsaw last week, and its potential for breeding a climate of corruption.

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308 Comments

Posted in Policy, South Asia

Data corruption by running mean ‘smoothers’

Posted on November 22, 2013 by | 627 comments

by Greg Goodman

Update added at end of article

Running means are often used as a simple low pass filter (usually without understanding its defects). Often it is referred to as a “smoother”.

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627 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Social cost of carbon

Posted on November 21, 2013 by | 354 comments

by Judith Curry

The debate on the social cost of carbon is heating up.

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354 Comments

Posted in Policy

20 tips for interpreting scientific claims

Posted on November 20, 2013 by | 174 comments

by Judith Curry

This list will help non-scientists to interrogate advisers and to grasp the limitations of evidence  – William J. Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter and Mark A. Burgman.

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174 Comments

Posted in Policy, Scientific method

Fallacies of risk

Posted on November 20, 2013 by | 201 comments

by Judith Curry

In addition to traditional fallacies such as ad hominem, discussions of risk contain logical and argumentative fallacies that are specific to the subject-matter. Ten such fallacies are identified, that can commonly be found in public debates on risk. They are named as follows: the sheer size fallacy, the converse sheer size fallacy, the fallacy of naturalness, the ostrich’s fallacy, the proof-seeking fallacy, the delay fallacy, the technocratic fallacy, the consensus fallacy, the fallacy of pricing, and the infallability fallacy. – Sven Ove Hansson

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201 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

The 2.8% effect

Posted on November 19, 2013 by | 237 comments

by Judith Curry

The Arctic Ocean covers about 2.8% of the total Earth’s surface area   –  The Encyclopedia of Earth

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237 Comments

Posted in Polar regions

Uncertainty in Arctic temperatures

Posted on November 18, 2013 by | 130 comments

by Judith Curry

Motivated by the paper by Cowtan and Way, this post examines uncertainties in the recent variability of Arctic temperatures.

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130 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Polar regions