World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty

Posted on June 6, 2014 by | 270 comments

by Judith Curry

The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

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270 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

What is skepticism, anyway?

Posted on June 5, 2014 by | 741 comments

by Judith Curry

Two recent essays on skepticism stimulate reflections on both the scientific consensus and the high level of public skepticism.

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741 Comments

Posted in Skeptics

Explaining(?) abrupt climate change

Posted on June 4, 2014 by | 152 comments

by Judith Curry

 . . . suggesting that Dansgaard-Oeschger events resulted from a combination of the effects of sea ice and ice shelves—structures that help define the margins of ice sheets—to account for both the rapid and the slower parts of the cycle.

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152 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Polar regions

AGU: Enforcing the consensus

Posted on June 3, 2014 by | 375 comments

by Michael Asten

I have decided to reject the submission based on the significant scientific consensus regarding the question of human-induced climate change. – Eos editor

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375 Comments

Posted in Consensus

The sociology of correlation and causation

Posted on June 2, 2014 by | 286 comments

by Judith Curry

Correlation doesn’t imply  causation.

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286 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

‘Global warming’ versus ‘climate change’

Posted on June 1, 2014 by | 533 comments

By Judith Curry

We found that the term “global warming” is associated with greater public understanding, emotional engagement, and support for personal and national action than the term “climate change.” 

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533 Comments

Posted in Communication

The Astonishing Math of Michael Ghil’s Climate Sensitivity

Posted on May 30, 2014 by | 478 comments

by Robert Ellison

Climate sensitivity is large in the vicinity of tipping points but moderate otherwise.

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478 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

U.S. House Hearing on the IPCC Process

Posted on May 29, 2014 by | 206 comments

by Judith Curry

The U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space & Technology is holding a Hearing today at 11 a.m.: Examining the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Process

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206 Comments

Posted in IPCC

IPCC: Functional stupidity?

Posted on May 27, 2014 by | 542 comments

by Judith Curry

Our point is that the IPCC has bought into a very specific framing of “the problem” that has rendered climate policy ineffective and has foreclosed the possibility of public consent. – Silke Beck et al.

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542 Comments

Posted in IPCC

Climate casino

Posted on May 26, 2014 by | 114 comments

by Judith Curry

114 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Economics

The heart of the climate dynamics debate

Posted on May 26, 2014 by | 478 comments

by Judith Curry

Lennart Bengtsson’s recent statement on climate research has elicited a response from Andy Lacis, that directly points to the fundamental debate in climate dynamics.

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478 Comments

Posted in climate models

Are climate scientists being forced to toe the line?

Posted on May 24, 2014 by | 901 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate researchers are now engaged in a debate about whether their science is being crippled by a compulsion to conform. They wonder if pressure to reach a consensus is too great. They ask if criticism is being suppressed. No less is at stake than the credibility of research evidence for climate change and the very question of whether climate research is still reliable. – Spiegel

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901 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Skeptics, Sociology of science

How simple is simple?

Posted on May 23, 2014 by | 461 comments

by Tomas Milanovic

This essay has been motivated by Isaac Held’s paper [link] arguing for possible emerging simplicity or even linearity in climate dynamics.

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461 Comments

Posted in climate models

Science and policy – reconciling the two cultures

Posted on May 22, 2014 by | 262 comments

by Judith Curry

There are obvious issues, such as protecting the independence of advice, acknowledging the limitations of science and being clear about what we know and do not know, to understand how science informs but does not make policy, and the need to ensure honest brokerage of information. – Sir Peter Gluckman

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262 Comments

Posted in Policy, Sociology of science

Mechanisms for Warming of the Oceans

Posted on May 21, 2014 by | 425 comments

by Donald Rapp

This paper describes a model that uses the basics of heat transfer to demonstrate than an increase in downwelling infrared radiation associated with increased CO2 reduces heat loss from the mixed layer of the ocean, causing the ocean to warm.

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425 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Climate scientists joining advocacy groups

Posted on May 20, 2014 by | 403 comments

by Judith Curry

Along with Richard Lindzen joining the Cato Institute, Bengtsson now gives us two examples of ‘skeptical’ scientists becoming associated with political advocacy groups, and zero examples of mainstream climate scientists joining political organizations. Who is it that’s politicizing science? – Dana Nuccitelli

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403 Comments

Posted in Ethics

Critique of Mann’s new paper characterizing the AMO

Posted on May 19, 2014 by | 289 comments

by Nic Lewis

Michael Mann has had a paper on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) accepted by Geophysical Research Letters.  The paper seeks to overturn the current understanding of the AMO. But on my reading of the paper Mann’s case is built on results that do not support his contentions.

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289 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Sea level rise tipping points

Posted on May 18, 2014 by | 222 comments

by Rud Istvan

Sea level tipping points are a popular CAGW/media theory, easily suggested by images of calving icebergs and summer meltwater rushing down Greenland moulins. But they are alarmist precautionary mitigation fantasies rather than remotely possible future scenarios on multi-centennial time scales.

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222 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Reflections on Bengtsson and the GWPF

Posted on May 16, 2014 by | 589 comments

by Judith Curry

. . . some scientists are mixing up their role with that of a climate activist. – Lennart Bengtsson

Professor Bengtsson’s persecution shows precisely why independent think-tanks such as the Global Warming Policy Foundation are essential. Truly, the old joke is becoming ever more true: what’s the opposite of diversity? University. – Matt Ridley

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589 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Policy

Lennart Bengtsson resigns from the GWPF

Posted on May 14, 2014 by | 819 comments

by Judith Curry

I have been put under such an enormous group pressure in recent days from all over the world that has become virtually unbearable to me. – Lennart Bengtsson

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819 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Climate Dialogue on Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response

Posted on May 13, 2014 by | 367 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate Dialogue explores different views on climate sensitivity and transient climate response.

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367 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming

Posted on May 7, 2014 by | 876 comments

by Donald Rapp

Why after 400 years of La Niña precedence, did periods of El Niños dominance start in the 20th century? And why did the two periods of strong El Niño dominance in the 20th century occur during a period when the CO2 concentration was rising? Is there a link between rising CO2 and the El Niño – La Niña balance? But if there is such a link, why did El Niños become less prevalent than La Niñas from 1941 to 1976 and be in balance after 1998?

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876 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

U.S. National Climate Assessment Report

Posted on May 6, 2014 by | 416 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate change, once considered a problem for the distant future, has moved firmly into the present.  Climate change is already affecting the American people. – U.S. NCADAC

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416 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Policy

Profits(?) of doom

Posted on May 5, 2014 by | 434 comments

by Judith Curry

For most of the world’s population, climate change means nothing but trouble. For a few, it means laughing all the way to the bank. – George Black

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434 Comments

Posted in Economics

Lennart Bengtsson speaks out

Posted on May 3, 2014 by | 381 comments

by Judith Curry

The whole concept behind IPCC is basically wrong. – Lennart Bengtsson

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381 Comments

Posted in IPCC, Skeptics