JC interview: hurricanes and global warming

Posted on October 6, 2017 by | 149 comments

by Judith Curry

My recent interview with David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation on Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and the link with global warming.

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149 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

Posted on September 26, 2017 by | 402 comments

by Ross McKitrick

A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a diagram of temperature change versus cumulative carbon emissions since 1870.

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402 Comments

Posted in climate models

Nature Unbound V – The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle

Posted on September 15, 2017 by | 108 comments

by Javier

The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.

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108 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Hurricane Irma eyes Florida

Posted on September 8, 2017 by | 271 comments

by Judith Curry

Cat 5 Hurricane Irma is one for the record books; it’s eye is on Florida.

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271 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

Hurricane Harvey: long-range forecasts

Posted on August 27, 2017 by | 404 comments

by Judith Curry

The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas.  Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts.

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404 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report

Posted on August 20, 2017 by | 319 comments

by Judith Curry

Calling on CE Denizens to review the Climate Science Special Report:  nominate an official reviewer, or participate in the CE Crowdsourced Review.

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319 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science

Reviewing the CCSR: Discussion thread

Posted on August 20, 2017 by | 119 comments

by Judith Curry

This post is running parallel to the post Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report (a technical post), to accommodate general discussion on the topic

119 Comments

Posted in Scientific method

What do we know about Arctic sea ice trends?

Posted on August 16, 2017 by | 200 comments

by Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly

Satellite observations indicate that the average Arctic sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start of the satellite records in October 1978. Is this period long enough to assess whether the current sea level trend is unusual, and to what extent the decline is caused by humans?

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200 Comments

Posted in Polar regions

The blame game

Posted on August 14, 2017 by | 182 comments

by Judith Curry

For the sake of argument, let’s accept the IPCC conclusions regarding attribution of global warming, and their 21st century projections.  So, exactly who in the U.S. bears the blame for current and future damages?

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182 Comments

Posted in Ethics, Politics

Nature Unbound IV – The 2400 Bray cycle. Part C

Posted on August 7, 2017 by | 413 comments

by Javier

A possible mechanism for the effect of solar variability on climate, whereby solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.

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413 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Data and observations

Electricity in Texas. Part II: the cost of a 100% renewable grid

Posted on August 6, 2017 by | 246 comments

by Peter Davies

While onshore wind generation has been relatively inexpensive for some time, solar PV and lithium ion battery storage costs have recently shown dramatic reductions. So can Texas, with excellent onshore wind and solar resources, be powered economically entirely by renewables in the 2030-40 time frame? This article brings together the available public material to estimate the cost.

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246 Comments

Posted in Energy

Update on the strength of aerosol forcing

Posted on July 29, 2017 by | 298 comments

by Frank Bosse

Increasing evidence of small aerosol forcing supports the importance of internal variability in explaining inter hemispheric differences in temperature variability.

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298 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Stealth advocacy: a survey of weathercasters’ views on climate change

Posted on July 19, 2017 by | 346 comments

by Mike Smith

For a decade, the weathercaster and broadcast meteorology communities have been subject of a focused campaign to force them to cover global warming in a manner acceptable to the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union and other advocacy groups.

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346 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Nature Unbound IV – The 2400-year Bray cycle. Part B

Posted on July 16, 2017 by | 207 comments

by Javier

In Part A, we established the existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray. This climate cycle correlates in period and phase with a ~ 2400-year cycle in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, that corresponds with clusters of solar grand minima at times of abrupt cooling and climate deterioration. The relationship between solar activity and cosmogenic isotope production during the past centuries confirms the ~ 2400-year solar cycle as the origin of the climate cycle.

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207 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Alarm about alarmism

Posted on July 15, 2017 by | 222 comments

by Judith Curry

The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)

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222 Comments

Posted in Communication, Sociology of science

Nature Unbound IV – The 2400-year Bray cycle. Part A

Posted on July 11, 2017 by | 136 comments

By Javier

The existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray, is supported by abundant evidence from vegetation changes, glacier re-advances, atmospheric changes reflected in alterations in wind patterns, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, drift ice abundance, and changes in precipitation and temperature. This is established with proxy records from many parts of the world.

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136 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Framing the challenge for the climate red team

Posted on July 9, 2017 by | 298 comments

by Judith Curry

There is an opportunity to steer the proposed red team exercise in a useful direction.  The first step is to frame the problem to be addressed.

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298 Comments

Posted in Policy, Sociology of science

Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?

Posted on July 8, 2017 by | 122 comments

by Nic Lewis

A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based climate sensitivity estimates from historical records into line with model-derived estimates.

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122 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics

Posted on July 5, 2017 by | 137 comments

by Vincent Randall

A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

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137 Comments

Posted in Economics, Uncertainty

What is red teaming?

Posted on July 3, 2017 by | 330 comments

by Judith Curry

Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a ‘red team’ to debate climate science.  What exactly is ‘red teaming’, and how can this be implemented in a way that is useful for climate science and for policy makers?

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330 Comments

Posted in Policy, Sociology of science

Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century

Posted on July 1, 2017 by | 217 comments

 

by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website.

Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

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217 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

National Climate Assessment and the Trump administration

Posted on June 21, 2017 by | 352 comments

The National Climate Assessment must be redirected or terminated

by Patrick J. Michaels

Periodic National Assessments of the effects of climate change on the U.S. are mandated by the 1990 Global Change Research Act. The next Assessment Report is scheduled to be published in late 2018.

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352 Comments

Posted in Policy, Sociology of science

The radically fragmented and decentralized age of information

Posted on June 20, 2017 by | 121 comments

by Judith Curry

Why real nobodies are more powerful than repressed somebodies.

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121 Comments

Posted in Communication, Sociology of science

CFAN’s forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Posted on June 8, 2017 by | 104 comments

by Judith Curry

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s  first seasonal forecast for  Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.

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104 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

Paris Accord: QTIIPS

Posted on June 4, 2017 by | 527 comments

by Judith Curry

QTIIPS stands for Quantitatively Trivial Impact + Intense Political Symbolism. – Keith Hennessey

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527 Comments

Posted in Policy