by Judith Curry
“Rather than justifying a lack of response to climate change, the emphasis on uncertainty enlarges the risk and reinforces the responsibility for pursuing successful long-term mitigation policy,” according to a 2010 analysis by researchers at Sandia National Laboratory.
All things considered, alarmism seems like common sense to me.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
The original thread for Andy Lacis’ post got derailed by non-technical comments. This thread is STRICTLY for technical comments (heavy moderation will be imposed); make your general comments on the original thread.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Richard Saumarez
You may wonder why a medic is writing a post on control theory in climate.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Andrew Lacis
The one year anniversary is soon approaching for the Science paper that we wrote a year ago to illustrate the nature of the terrestrial greenhouse effect. I describe here how this paper came to be.
Posted in Greenhouse effect
by Judith Curry
The public comment period for the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) 2012-2021 Strategic Plan is open until November 29, 2011. Lets take a look at the draft plan.
Posted in Policy
by Tony Brown
Posts in the thread on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC have raised a basic question regarding the credibility of the IPCC as the world’s foremost source of information on climate, and hence its future relevance.
Posted in IPCC, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
There are some climate-relevant stories associated with the 2011 Nobel Prize winners in Physics and Chemistry.
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
[A] key message within Gore’s Climate Reality Project was that our recent strange weather and accompanying social problems are inextricably linked to the climate crisis. And say what you will about Gore, that part seems increasingly true. What’s more, there’s nothing new about such cause-and-effect. According to a new study, climate change has played a significant role in several of the crises of pre-industrial Europe and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere over the course of the 300 years.
Posted in History
by Judith Curry
It is now published: the Climatic Change Special Issue on Guidance for Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty and Confidence in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change.
Posted in Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
Nature Climate Change published a review of the James Lawrence Powell’s book “The Inquisition of Climate Science.” The review, written by Fred Pearce, is titled “Sceptical about Sceptics.”
Posted in Skeptics
by Judith Curry
Robert Socolow of Princeton University has written and essay “Wedges Reaffirme,” that examines the impact of his 2004 paper with Stephen Pacala, entitled “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies”.
Its core messages are as valid today as seven years ago, but they have not led to action.
by Judith Curry
Six Italian seismologists and one government official went on trial for manslaughter in Italy last week. The unusual trial stems from accusations that the seven failed to adequately communicate the potential for a major earthquake to the population around the central Italian town of L’Aquila, which was hit by a devastating magnitude 6.3 earthquake in the predawn hours of April 6, 2009.
Posted in Ethics
by Judith Curry
I’m in San Diego, with a few moments to catch up on the blog and share my impressions of my visit to MIT.
Posted in Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
This Thursday, I will be visiting the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) at MIT, giving the Victor Starr Lecture.
Posted in Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
…on average, climate change researchers will prefer to reach a decision or come to closure and ‘move on’ to the next step more quickly than the general population.
Posted in Communication
by Judith Curry
A new paper is in press that sheds some light on the relationship between cosmic rays and lower tropospheric cloud cover.
Posted in Solar
by Judith Curry
I think I am gaining some insight into the debate between scientists versus engineers regarding climate model verification and validation.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
It is difficult these days to get a paper published in a mainstream climate journal if it emphasises the uncertainty associated with some basic aspect of global warming.
by Judith Curry
A blogospheric debate has erupted this weekend over who is more anti-science: the political right, or the left.
Posted in Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
“Climategate”—the unauthorized release of, and news stories about, e-mails between climate scientists in the United States and United Kingdom—undermined belief in global warming and possibly also trust in climate scientists among TV meteorologists in the United States.
Posted in Communication
by Judith Curry
Update: response from Jared Diamond.
Several years ago, I read with great interest Jared Diamond’s book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. The starkest example in the book was the ecological collapse of Easter Island.
Mark Lynas has written a provocative essay that argues that “recent archaeological work suggests that the eco-collapse hypothesis is almost certainly wrong – and that the truth is far more shocking.”
Posted in Climate change impacts
by Judith Curry
Circa 2003-2005, we had the “hockey wars”. In 2005-2006, we had the “hurricane wars”. It looks like this is the season for “cloud wars.”
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Judith Curry
Here is the punchline of a new paper by Besley and Nisbet:
Most scientists in the US and UK blame public ignorance of science for flawed policy preferences and political choices. They tend to be critical of media coverage, yet rate favorably their own experience with the media. Scientists say policy-makers and journalists are the most important groups to engage and view the public as having secondary importance in political decision-making. Among scientists, perceptions of science-related policy debates are likely to be influenced by ideology and like-minded information sources such as blogs.
Posted in Communication
by Judith Curry
John and Michel are hypothetical pub owners in Britain and France. Lenny Smith asks the following questions:
Can today’s science tell John what +4 degrees would be like for his pub? Or his insurer? (or their reinsurer?) Or better still “climate-proof” his business? Is it a question of mere probabilities? Or might models see a “Big Surprise”? How to best manage Expectations (Theirs) and Credibility (Ours) ? Why is this so hard? Should Michel care about global mean temperature?
Posted in Climate change impacts
