Author Archives: curryja

Tall tales and fat tails

Posted on July 31, 2013 | 335 comments

by Judith Curry

The economic value of climate mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming.

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335 Comments

Posted in Economics, Sensitivity & feedbacks

‘Denier’ blogs

Posted on July 30, 2013 | 498 comments

by Judith Curry

Judith Curry’s blog, Climate Etc., is an exception to the stereotype of denier blogs. Curry is a real climate scientist with strong credentials.  Committed to reason, evidence, and open inquiry, she is willing to examine legitimate points the climate skeptics may be making — as well as the evidence and arguments from mainstream climate science. – Society of Environmental Journalists

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498 Comments

Posted in Communication, Skeptics

Uncertainty: lost in translation

Posted on July 29, 2013 | 201 comments

by Judith Curry

We have looked at what uncertainty means and doesn’t mean in science, how it is measured, when it can’t be measured and how that might change through research into the big questions. Above all we asked how other people can grapple constructively with advances in knowledge and changes in thinking, instead of despairing at ‘those uncertain scientists’. – Tracey Brown and Tabitha Innocent

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201 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

World’s Energy Appetite Growing

Posted on July 28, 2013 | 220 comments

by Judith Curry

[W]orld energy consumption will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. – EIA

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220 Comments

Posted in Energy

The 97% ‘consensus’: Part II

Posted on July 27, 2013 | 474 comments

by Judith Curry

[T]here’s good reason to believe that the self-righteous and contemptuous tone with which the “scientific consensus” point is typically advanced (“assault on reason,” “the debate is over” etc.) deepens polarization.  That’s because “scientific consensus,” when used as a rhetorical bludgeon, predictably excites reciprocally contemptuous and recriminatory responses by those who are being beaten about the head and neck with it. – Dan Kahan

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474 Comments

Posted in Consensus

The 97% ‘consensus’

Posted on July 26, 2013 | 349 comments

by Judith Curry

 Isn’t everyone in the 97%?  I am.  – Andrew Montford

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349 Comments

Posted in Consensus

Arctic time bomb (?)

Posted on July 25, 2013 | 200 comments

by Judith Curry

It will be difficult — perhaps impossible — to avoid large methane releases in the East Siberian Sea without major reductions in global emissions of CO2.- Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope, Peter Wadhams

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200 Comments

Posted in Polar regions

Disaster economics

Posted on July 24, 2013 | 112 comments

by Judith Curry

I recently received a query from a journalist:

Do natural disasters help local economies?

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112 Comments

Posted in Economics

UK Met Office on the pause

Posted on July 23, 2013 | 353 comments

by Judith Curry

The recent pause in global surface temperature rise does not, in itself, materially alter the risks  of substantial warming of the Earth by the end of this century. – UK Met Office

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353 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Addicted to cool (?)

Posted on July 21, 2013 | 181 comments

by Judith Curry

This post is motivated by predicted by a high temperature forecast of 105 F today in Reno, NV.

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181 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Ocean acidification discussion thread

Posted on July 19, 2013 | 685 comments

by Judith Curry

Today the surface ocean is almost 30% more acidic than it was in pre-industrial times, and over the next few decades, the level of acidity of the surface ocean will continue to rise without deliberate action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Increasingly this will cause major problems for many marine organisms like shellfish and corals. – Scott Doney

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685 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts

U.S. Senate Hearing “Climate Change: It’s Happening Now”

Posted on July 18, 2013 | 237 comments

by Judith Curry

There was a big hearing today in the Senate on climate change.

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237 Comments

Posted in Policy

Why farmers don’t believe in anthropogenic global warming

Posted on July 17, 2013 | 573 comments

by Judith Curry

If there’s one thing U.S. farmers can count on, it’s bad weather, and perhaps as a result, many of them don’t think humanity is to blame for the long-term shifts in weather patterns known as climate change.

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573 Comments

Posted in Skeptics

Certainly not!

Posted on July 17, 2013 | 212 comments

by Judith Curry

Good science requires cultivating doubt and finding pleasure in mystery. – Stuart Firestein

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212 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

AGW skeptics in the professional community

Posted on July 15, 2013 | 304 comments

by Judith Curry

We find that climate science scepticism is not limited to the scientifically illiterate, but well ensconced within this group of professional experts with scientific training – who work as leaders or advisors to management in governmental, non-governmental, and corporate organizations.

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304 Comments

Posted in Skeptics

Why Libertarians should support a carbon tax

Posted on July 15, 2013 | 266 comments

by Ed Dolan

. . . even if they can’t love it.

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266 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Unforced variability and the global warming slow down

Posted on July 13, 2013 | 425 comments

by Patrick Brown

How we interpret the current slow-down in the rate of global warming depends very much on the length of the ‘leash’ in the true climate system (i.e., how large internal variability is).

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425 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Axioms of ecological policy

Posted on July 12, 2013 | 167 comments

by Judith Curry

“Many of today’s ecological policy issues are contentious, socially divisive, and full of conundrums.” – Robert Lackey

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167 Comments

Posted in Policy

The forecast for 2018 is cloudy

Posted on July 11, 2013 | 265 comments

by Judith Curry

”The dramatic warming predicted after 2008 has yet to arrive.”

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265 Comments

Posted in climate models

Climate vs weather prediction: should we rebalance?

Posted on July 11, 2013 | 88 comments

by Judith Curry

The Weather Forecasting Improvement Act of 2013  introduced by Environment Subcommittee Vice Chairman Jim Bridenstine will prioritize the mission of NOAA to include the protection of lives and property, and make funds available to improve weather-related research, operations and computing resources.

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88 Comments

Posted in climate models, Policy

Manufacturing consensus: clinical guidelines

Posted on July 10, 2013 | 129 comments

by Judith Curry

Yet these and other guidelines continue to be followed despite concerns about bias, because “We like to stick within the standard of care, because when the shit hits the fan we all want to be able to say we were just doing what everyone else is doing—even if what everyone else is doing isn’t very good.” – Jeanne Lenzer

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129 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Ethics

Climate model tuning

Posted on July 9, 2013 | 235 comments

by Judith Curry

Arguably the most poorly documented aspect of climate models is how they are calibrated, or ‘tuned’

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235 Comments

Posted in climate models

Why progressives should love a carbon tax

Posted on July 8, 2013 | 320 comments

by Ed Dolan

. . . and why not all of them do.

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320 Comments

Posted in Energy, Policy

IPCC discussion thread

Posted on July 5, 2013 | 199 comments

by Judith Curry

The Fifth Assessment has been a particularly turbulent period for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). . .  but the pace at which the world changes is stepping up, and we can be sure that the IPCC must adapt to these changes if it still wants to retain significance in the future.

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199 Comments

Posted in IPCC

Climate Risk

Posted on July 2, 2013 | 442 comments

by Judith Curry

How much effort should we exert this year as opposed to 10 years from now? How should we manage discontinuous or highly uncertain effects?  What is the likelihood of a technological deus ex machina? Will climate change mean geopolitical surprise in the Arctic or from petroleum exporting nations? Are we a world filled with highly flexible innovators or low-turnover, high-cost capital stock? – Hultman, Hassenzahl, Rayner

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442 Comments

Posted in Policy