Monthly Archives: November 2013

Climate change is an externality that is global, pervasive, long-term, and uncertain–but even though the scale and complexity of this externality is unprecedented, economic theory is well equipped for such problems–and advice based on rigorous economic analysis is any way preferred to wishy-washy thinking. – Richard Tol

Integrated Assessment Model-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. – Robert Pindyck

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385 Comments

Posted in Uncategorized

Reflection on reliability of climate models

Posted on November 25, 2013 by curryja | 403 comments

by Judith Curry

Failure to communicate the relevant ‘weak link’ is sometimes under-appreciated as a critical element of science-based policy-making.

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403 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism: A climate for corruption?

Posted on November 24, 2013 by curryja | 308 comments

Lets take a look at the new ‘Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage’ agreed to by the UNFCCC COP in Warsaw last week, and its potential for breeding a climate of corruption.

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308 Comments

Posted in Policy, South Asia

Data corruption by running mean ‘smoothers’

Posted on November 22, 2013 by curryja | 627 comments

by Greg Goodman

Update added at end of article

Running means are often used as a simple low pass filter (usually without understanding its defects). Often it is referred to as a “smoother”.

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627 Comments

Posted in Data and observations

Social cost of carbon

Posted on November 21, 2013 by curryja | 354 comments

by Judith Curry

The debate on the social cost of carbon is heating up.

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354 Comments

Posted in Policy

20 tips for interpreting scientific claims

Posted on November 20, 2013 by curryja | 174 comments

by Judith Curry

This list will help non-scientists to interrogate advisers and to grasp the limitations of evidence – William J. Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter and Mark A. Burgman.

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174 Comments

Posted in Policy, Scientific method

Fallacies of risk

Posted on November 20, 2013 by curryja | 201 comments

by Judith Curry

In addition to traditional fallacies such as ad hominem, discussions of risk contain logical and argumentative fallacies that are specific to the subject-matter. Ten such fallacies are identified, that can commonly be found in public debates on risk. They are named as follows: the sheer size fallacy, the converse sheer size fallacy, the fallacy of naturalness, the ostrich’s fallacy, the proof-seeking fallacy, the delay fallacy, the technocratic fallacy, the consensus fallacy, the fallacy of pricing, and the infallability fallacy. – Sven Ove Hansson

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201 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

The 2.8% effect

Posted on November 19, 2013 by curryja | 237 comments

by Judith Curry

The Arctic Ocean covers about 2.8% of the total Earth’s surface area – The Encyclopedia of Earth

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237 Comments

Posted in Polar regions

Uncertainty in Arctic temperatures

Posted on November 18, 2013 by curryja | 130 comments

by Judith Curry

Motivated by the paper by Cowtan and Way, this post examines uncertainties in the recent variability of Arctic temperatures.

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130 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Polar regions

The folly of corn ethanol

Posted on November 17, 2013 by curryja | 282 comments

by Judith Curry

“I don’t know whether I can make the environmental argument, or the economic argument” – Tom Vilsack

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282 Comments

Posted in Energy

Interpretation of UK temperatures since 1956

Posted on November 15, 2013 by curryja | 432 comments

by Euan Mearns and Clive Best

In this post we present evidence that suggests 88% of temperature variance and one-third of net warming observed in the UK since 1956 can be explained by cyclical change in UK cloud cover.

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432 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

Posted on November 13, 2013 by curryja | 803 comments

by Judith Curry

Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

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803 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

How to earn trust in climate change debates

Posted on November 12, 2013 by curryja | 478 comments

by Judith Curry

Where trust is most needed, it is least likely to be gained by relying on the source factors identified in empirical scholarship on persuasion.

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478 Comments

Posted in Communication

Denial

Posted on November 11, 2013 by curryja | 755 comments

by Judith Curry

The extension of the “denier” tag to group after group is a development that should alarm all liberal-minded people. One of the great achievements of the Enlightenment—the liberation of historical and scientific enquiry from dogma—is quietly being reversed. – Edward Skidelsky

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755 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

The 52% ‘consensus’

Posted on November 10, 2013 by curryja | 373 comments

by Judith Curry

A comprehensive survey has been conducted of the American Meteorological Society membership to elicit their views on global warming.

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373 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Impacts of China’s hydropower boom

Posted on November 9, 2013 by curryja | 247 comments

by Judith Curry

China is engaged in a push to build hydroelectric dams on a scale unprecedented in human history. While being touted for producing lower-emission electricity, these massive dam projects are wreaking havoc on river systems across China and Southeast Asia. – Charlton Lewis

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247 Comments

Posted in Energy

Open thread weekend

Posted on November 8, 2013 by curryja | 444 comments

by Judith Curry

It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.

444 Comments

Posted in Open thread

Practice-relevant climate adaptation science

Posted on November 8, 2013 by curryja | 154 comments

by Judith Curry

Informing the extensive preparations needed to manage climate risks, avoid damages, and realize emerging opportunities is a grand challenge for climate change science.

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154 Comments

Posted in Policy

John Howard: One Religion is Enough

Posted on November 7, 2013 by curryja | 391 comments

by Judith Curry

“I chose the…title largely in reaction to the sanctimonious tone employed by so many of those who advocate substantial and and costly responses to what they see as irrefutable evidence that the world’s climate faces catastrophe…To them the cause has become a substitute religion.” – John Howard

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391 Comments

Posted in Policy