by Judith Curry
Part one has engendered considerable discussion. In addition to the discussion at the Blackboard, Roger Pielke Sr. has written an essay entitled “Missing the point of sensitivity” which is discussed at WUWT. Josh has prepared a cartoon:
One point that strikes me is that people at level 2 in my epistemology ranking are making very solid arguments. I agree with Shewonk that level 1 are making most of the fundamental contributions in terms of the peer reviewed literature (but level 2 people are increasingly submitting papers to journals). If climate scientists can’t convince level 2’s and also level 3’s, people who are looking at the arguments carefully, reading the primary literature, and analyzing data, then it seems to me that the arguments can’t be that strong (or the confidence levels can’t be that high). This just isn’t an issue of “communication” (communication is more relevant for level 4’s).