by Ross McKitrick
A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a diagram of temperature change versus cumulative carbon emissions since 1870.
Posted in climate models
by Javier
The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.
Posted in Uncategorized
by Judith Curry
Cat 5 Hurricane Irma is one for the record books; it’s eye is on Florida.
Posted in Hurricanes
by Judith Curry
The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas. Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts.
Posted in Hurricanes
by Judith Curry
Calling on CE Denizens to review the Climate Science Special Report: nominate an official reviewer, or participate in the CE Crowdsourced Review.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
This post is running parallel to the post Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report (a technical post), to accommodate general discussion on the topic
Posted in Scientific method
by Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly
Satellite observations indicate that the average Arctic sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start of the satellite records in October 1978. Is this period long enough to assess whether the current sea level trend is unusual, and to what extent the decline is caused by humans?
Posted in Polar regions
by Judith Curry
For the sake of argument, let’s accept the IPCC conclusions regarding attribution of global warming, and their 21st century projections. So, exactly who in the U.S. bears the blame for current and future damages?
by Javier
A possible mechanism for the effect of solar variability on climate, whereby solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.
Posted in Adaptation, Data and observations
by Peter Davies
While onshore wind generation has been relatively inexpensive for some time, solar PV and lithium ion battery storage costs have recently shown dramatic reductions. So can Texas, with excellent onshore wind and solar resources, be powered economically entirely by renewables in the 2030-40 time frame? This article brings together the available public material to estimate the cost.
Posted in Energy
by Frank Bosse
Increasing evidence of small aerosol forcing supports the importance of internal variability in explaining inter hemispheric differences in temperature variability.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Mike Smith
For a decade, the weathercaster and broadcast meteorology communities have been subject of a focused campaign to force them to cover global warming in a manner acceptable to the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union and other advocacy groups.
Posted in Sociology of science
by Javier
In Part A, we established the existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray. This climate cycle correlates in period and phase with a ~ 2400-year cycle in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, that corresponds with clusters of solar grand minima at times of abrupt cooling and climate deterioration. The relationship between solar activity and cosmogenic isotope production during the past centuries confirms the ~ 2400-year solar cycle as the origin of the climate cycle.
Posted in Data and observations
by Judith Curry
The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
By Javier
The existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray, is supported by abundant evidence from vegetation changes, glacier re-advances, atmospheric changes reflected in alterations in wind patterns, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, drift ice abundance, and changes in precipitation and temperature. This is established with proxy records from many parts of the world.
Posted in Attribution, Data and observations
by Judith Curry
There is an opportunity to steer the proposed red team exercise in a useful direction. The first step is to frame the problem to be addressed.
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science
by Nic Lewis
A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based climate sensitivity estimates from historical records into line with model-derived estimates.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
by Vincent Randall
A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’
Posted in Economics, Uncertainty
by Judith Curry
Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a ‘red team’ to debate climate science. What exactly is ‘red teaming’, and how can this be implemented in a way that is useful for climate science and for policy makers?
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science
by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website.
Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.
Posted in Climate change impacts
The National Climate Assessment must be redirected or terminated
Periodic National Assessments of the effects of climate change on the U.S. are mandated by the 1990 Global Change Research Act. The next Assessment Report is scheduled to be published in late 2018.
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
by Judith Curry
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s first seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Posted in Hurricanes
by Judith Curry
QTIIPS stands for Quantitatively Trivial Impact + Intense Political Symbolism. – Keith Hennessey
Posted in Policy
by Javier
The Neoglacial has been a period of progressive cooling, increasing aridity, and advancing glaciers, culminating in the Little Ice Age. The main Holocene climatic cycle of ~ 2400 years delimits periods of more stable climatic conditions which were identified over a century ago. The stable periods are punctuated by abrupt changes.
Posted in Attribution, Data and observations
