Dubious climate science about the Texas cold disaster

by Patrick Michaels

A critique of Judah Cohen’s recent cover article in Science linking February’s disastrous cold outbreak in Texas to global warming

I’ve always had trouble with the notion that warming causes cooling. It leaves me with the squeasy feeling I get when my country neighbors insist that putting hot water in the ice cube tray results in quicker ice cubes.  That’s actually an experiment you can run, and I can assure that it most certainly does not (despite the arguments that are likely to follow in the comments section).

But it’s much harder to run a similar experiment on, say, the hypothesis that an anomalous and costly ($200 billion) cold outbreak in Texas last February was caused by global warming. Leaving out that much of the damage had to do with remarkably unprotected generation equipment—both conventional and renewable—it was very cold and windy, even by Texas blue norther standards. You just can’t stick a slightly warmer Texas in the fridge to see if it now freezes faster.

Predictably, champions of the warming-causes-cold-anomalies have come forward, with Judah Cohen, a consulting atmospheric scientist, with his theory that sea-ice changes in the arctic and snow-driven October changes in Siberia conspire to stretch the stratospheric polar vortex down to, say, Texas. Somehow his stuff always makes it into The New York Times, which is likely not a measure of its quality, but rather yet another thing to turn on their climate change alarm (which it rarely turns off).

Cohen concludes:

“Therefore, Arctic change is likely contributing to the increasing of SPV [Stratospheric Polar Vortex] stretching events, including one just prior to the Texas cold wave of February 2021.”

How he reached this conclusion is a conventional story. First, break down some target variable (in this case,100mb-heights) into characteristic patterns, and then use a General Circulation Model (GCM) to explain its behavior.  While Cohen and his four coauthors said the patterns were from “a machine learning technique”, it was actually good old-fashioned cluster analysis, something that has been around physical geography since the ice age.

Guess what.   Amplitudes of some of the clusters are going up, others are going down and, 40% have no statistically significant changes.  Cohen then correlated these changes to October Eurasian snow cover.

Given that Cohen has had some success in correlating October Siberian snow amount and geographic advance across with cold outbreaks into the U.S. (along with reductions in ice cover in the Arctic Ocean), he sought to “prove” the relationship with “a simplified GCM…well suited for isolating the atmospheric response to idealized heating perturbations”.  The model is acronymed MiMA, for Model with an idealized Moist Atmosphere. 

The word idealized isn’t defined, nor is the related reasoning, so we have to consult Chaim Garfinkel, the fourth author of the Cohen paper, and the first author of a paper describing MiMA, where we find out that it’s “idealized” because the extant GCMs are “tuned” so much that they become unstable:

“These comprehensive [general circulation] models, however, tend to be less flexible and tuned such that removing too many relevant forcings leads to unstable behavior.”

A good guess as to what’s “tuned” in the GCMs that leads to unstable behavior might be what’s left out of MiMA  – it has no clouds.  The albedo (think of “reflectivity”) of clouds exerts a net cooling particularly over latitudes away from the tropics.  MiMA artificially decreases the earth’s albedo because of its lack of clouds, from constant 27% down to about a constant 20% (in reality it is never constant), which represents a massive 25% increase in solar radiation heating the earth’s surface.

So, to this simulated climate, Cohen et al. change (raise) the albedo of Siberia and east Asia in the early fall, to compensate for an increase in October snow cover that has been detected since 1979, as well as raise the temperature of the model’s Arctic Ocean to get it to lose more ice.

And, presto-chango, the modified model stretches its wintertime polar stratospheric vortex to somehow get to Texas in February 2021.   How useful this is for his company that makes money  by selling in-advance winter forecasts.  Just think of how many billion dollars (and lives) could be saved the next time he makes such a forecast!

Indeed, Cohen goes on to note: “Third, our analysis is informative for policymakers”. He finishes by noting that it’s unwise to prepare for “only a decrease in severe winter weather” (there is some evidence Texas did this, judging from the performance of their backup gas plants, which were too cold to fire up), when  the stratospheric vortex might stretch all the way down to the Lone Star State,  as shown by his cloudless, constant-albedo model of what can only charitably be related to the earth’s climate.

So does Cohen actually get a better handle on Texas cold outbreaks in an atmosphere with no clouds and a constant albedo?  Except for Siberia, which he did brighten, which, everything else being equal, will become colder from increased snowfall precipitated by a cloudless atmosphere. This allows the big, seasonal cold Siberian high-pressure systems to get larger, increasing the likelihood that the vortex will transport some of its cold air down to Texas.

If you’re scratching your head after reading this, think of how much hair I lost reading Cohen’s paper.  It’s got a lot of pretty pictures that look seductive until you get into the details as to how they were ultimately applied by the MiMA model.

The bottom line is that Cohen et al. are going to have to be lot more convincing before I believe that a single month’s snowfall in Siberia drives the weather thousands of miles and several months away.

308 responses to “Dubious climate science about the Texas cold disaster

  1. My summary of the mild, harmless global warming since the mid-1970s:

    — The most warming was in the Northern half of the Northern Hemisphere, mainly during the coldest six months of the year, and mainly at night.

    A cold weather event for a few days in Texas, is only a tiny part of the 30 to 50 year global average of weather, that we call “climate”.

  2. > How useful this is for his company that makes money by selling in-advance winter forecasts.

    You heard it first at Judy’s!

    • Actually my company makes seasonal temperature forecasts also; we do not use Siberian snow cover as a predictor for our winter forecasts.

      • How useful a contrarian outlet publishing PatM’s Reviewer 2 review is to make money by selling seasonal temperature forecasts.

      • Willard, Dr. Curry directly bets her future financial wellbeing on her scientific work. Your apparent heroes have comfortable sinecures that insulate them from the consequences of incorrect predictions.

      • Dave,

        I see no downside to Pat’s hit job. It requires almost no work from him. The Contrarian Matrix will promote the post. No Denizen will ever double check anything said.

        In the real world, people have to pay for that kind of publicity!

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: No Denizen will ever double check anything said.

        An intriguing comment.

        I read Judah Cohen’s paper and the supplemental information, and I did not find where Patrick Michaels misrepresented anything. What did I miss?

      • Out of interest, when a Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurs in a NH winter, do you have techniques to incorporate such events into your prediction methods?

        I’m not a professional, but SSW events do seem to have quite reasonable predictive value on a scale of 1-3 months going forward….

    • So since Judith thinks motive-impugning of her isn’t justified she has no problem putting up a post that motive-impugns others

      Next she’ll complain about alarmists calling people deniers.

      • Not Joshua above surely.
        He does not denigrate or make derogatory comments about people…..
        He says so repeatedly while

      • I criticized an argument she made. I didn’t assign to her a denigrating label along with hundreds millions of other people, because they have an opinion different than my own.

        You just criticized an argument YOU made, because it was a facile argument clearly rooted in the simple fact that you didn’t understand a basic distinction. .

        Don’t take it personally. Criticizing your argument is not a denigrating argument about you. .

        Even if I slipped up and did assign a denigrating lable to you, along with hundreds of millions of other people, merely because you disagree with (it’s not like I never did that before and it’s not likely I would never slip up on the future and do it again), it wouldn’t change the simple fact that you had done so previously and declined to hold yourself accountable for doing so.

        Are you familiar with tu quoque?

      • Joshua: “she’ll complain about alarmists calling people deniers”

        And she would be right as this is an insult and not helpful in any discussion. Clive Mass has written a post about this:
        https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/05/why-one-should-never-use-term-climate.html

      • Matthew R Marler

        Joshua: I criticized an argument she made.

        Where did you do that? I can not find where you quoted an argument of hers and provided a criticism of it.

      • morfu –

        My point wasn’t clear. Let me try another way.

        We could really solve this whole global warming issue if those poopyheads would just stop calling us poopyheads.

    • Let the ClimateBall commence! Do not discuss the topic! Attack the publisher of an article!!! Cue Russell Crowe: Are you not entertained?

      • If Pat himself deflects from the topic in his Reviewer 2 rant, who will?

      • Surely, thomaswfuller2.

        Climateball is essentially a linear Rube Goldberg type of game, but instead of using kinetic energy, the way Rube did, Bingo often uses disparate, or disconnected names, words, ideas, or conceptual connections in such a way to bind their relationships into a manufactured continuity of thought.

        There was a documentary that used the same logic by way of connecting linear events, i.e., if not for the fact that a certain individual was rejected from art school then WWII would have never started; simpler yet, art was the impetus for WWII.

      • A manufactured continuity lies between your two paragraphs, Trunks.

        There’s no real causality in the Climate Ball. It’s not really linear either. But if that makes you sound cool to say “linear Rube Golberg type of game” (which is not a type of game anyway), be my guest.

      • “Official Rube Goldberg Invention Game”: https://store.steampowered.com/app/292090/Rube_Works_The_Official_Rube_Goldberg_Invention_Game/ It’s a puzzle game too, Bingo, but that it’s also a game isn’t really the point here. The point is that the game evolves from disparate linear connections utilizing kinetic energy to evolve towards a climatic conclusion; whereas your game, also an invention, instead uses disparate connections from words, linearly, to evolve an interpretive POV from each word towards a central climatic conclusion. It’s your perspective that creates the causality in your effort.

        So your game is a contrived thought game that threads interpretations together to buttress a POV. This game is a parlor playground for likeminded ideologues to borrow from, that’s how you promote it, that’s all it is.

      • A game isn’t a type of games, Trunks.

        What you’re referring to is called physics games:

        A physics game is a type of logical puzzle video game wherein the player must use the game’s physics and environment to complete each puzzle.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puzzle_video_game#Physics_game

        The game you’re trying to ridicule while playing it is a variant of a parlour game:

        A parlour or parlor game is a group game played indoors using speech (from French Parler). They were often played in a parlour.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlour_game

        Language is a social art.

      • A game isn’t a type of game? Yea, sure Bingo; there’s only one card game. I used an analogy to describe your nonsense game. Like I said, your game is a nonsense parlor playground.

      • *Rube Works* is a game, Trunks. It’s not a type of game.

        Checkers is a game. It’s not a type of game.

        The Climate Ball is a game. It’s not a type of game.

        Need I go on?

      • Another one of Bingo’s silly dances.

        Since you are drawn to definitions: Analogy—A similarity in some respects between things that are otherwise dissimilar.

        Maybe we should just to play into your silliness; here’s an illustration of some of your bingo square moves:

      • > Maybe we should just to play

        You already do, Trunks. Please own it. For instance, so far you have “manufactured” many “discontinuities” to suggest one and only one thing: that the game in which you deny to participate makes no sense. That’s what I call the Chewbacca Attack:

        https://neverendingaudit.tumblr.com/tagged/Chewbacca

        I’m trying to write a short play on an old exchange between BartR and Brave Brandon that happened before you appeared at Judy’s. You can read the first draft in the collection above cited.

        Do you think a play is a type of game?

      • All the world’s a stage—Bingo, and you think you’ve invented something

      • Putting words into one’s opponent’s mind isn’t part of the Bingo, Trunks.

        You might like:

        The object of the present essay is to demonstrate that it is more than a rhetorical comparison to view culture sub specie ludi. The thought is not at all new. There was a time when it was generally accepted, though in a limited sense quite different from the one intended here: in the -I}th century, the age of world theatre. Drama, in a glittering succession of figures ranging from Shakespeare and Calderon to Racine, then dominated the literature of the West. It was the fashion to liken the world to a stage on which every man plays his part. Does this mean that the play-element in civilization was openly acknowledged? Not at all. On closer examination this fashionable comparison of life to a stage proves to be little more than an echo of the Neo-platonism that was then in vogue, with a markedly moralistic accent. It was a variation on the ancient theme of the vanity of all things. The fact that play and culture are actually interwoven with one another was neither observed nor expressed, whereas for us the whole point is to show that genuine, pure play is one of the main bases of civilisation.

        That’s from a book called Homo Ludens, written by a guy who’s not me.

      • As usual, your stage presence gets rather tedious, please walk this way:

  3. Please be careful with correlation as it doesn’t imply causality although there are straightforward experimental methods of demonstrating the basic greenhouse effect itself. As a flippant example of why the corrlation / causality trap exists, there have been no nuclear wars since 1945 while, during that time, politicians’ salaries in the UK have increased steadily and by more than many other jobs. This clearly doesn’t mean that a pay freeze in the British parliament will trigger a holocaust.

  4. Patrick Michaels, thank you for this essay.

    How he reached this conclusion is a conventional story. First, break down some target variable (in this case,100mb-heights) into characteristic patterns, and then use a General Circulation Model (GCM) to explain its behavior. While Cohen and his four coauthors said the patterns were from “a machine learning technique”, it was actually good old-fashioned cluster analysis, something that has been around physical geography since the ice age.

    Now that they have done that, they can publish the MiMa “forecasts” for all portions of the earth surface, for all seasons (or at least all winters), for the next 20 years. As was recommended for the modelers who accounted for the recent extreme heat wave for the Pacific Northwest.

    These postdictions are not tests of the theory, but tests of modeler ingenuity in rescuing the theories from unpredicted events. Tests are provided by comparing future events to the forecasts of them.

  5. Good to see that scepticism of a climate signal propagating across the Northern Hemisphere in such a manner has reached climate etc.

    One wonders whether a specific predicting such as whether the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s could be made with this sort of work.

    Keep up the good work.

    • Knowing in advance what I want to “prove”, it is just a matter of trying correlations until I find a supporting one.

      • No matter how beautiful the model, if it doesn’t conform to reality,
        it’s wro-o-ong ! Ht/You know who…

      • True Beth, but then the fights start about establishing and/or accurately measuring reality. There does seem to be an attitude in some quarters that opinions (perhaps including faith) can somehow influence it. Science should be about the search for truth but scientists on their bad days can have the same flaws, hang-ups and prejudices as everyone else.

  6. “…linking February’s disastrous cold outbreak in Texas to global warming”

    Expect much more of this as the natural multidecadal (~60 y quasi-cycle) warming changes to cooling in the next few decades.

    • “Expect much more of this as…” politicians continue to discover there is no limit to the amount of money you can spend under the guise that you can control the weather with it.

      And more importantly, they control the presentation of the weather forecast. Hot, cold, wet, dry, normal or abnormal, it literally doesn’t matter- their “forecast” is for all of those at all times and in all places. Therefore the forecast is never “wrong” and the assumptions on which the forecast is made can never be questioned. Just accept that whatever the weather is, it’s your fault and it’s dire.
      That’s why the EU is patting itself on the back for increased “pledges” to reduce the emissions even as they crank up the volume on fossil fuel use for energy and shut down emissions-free power. They do it because they can. We’re literally in a post-truth political world. How sustainable that is depends on when the money runs out.

      • They control the presentation on everything now.

        The global warming narrative is probably the best example of how the powers that be have perfected their propoganda models over the years successfully silencing and smearing any scientist that publicly questions the big lie.

        Every narrative now seems possible and 2020 was a great year to put their models to the test in other areas, and they passed with flying colours.

        A fake pandemic based on lies
        A global movement Black Lives Matter based on lies
        A fake insurrection
        A fake vaccine

        Oh and for this page, a fake hottest year on record or as the honourable fake socialist Bernie put it, the hottest year in the history of planet earth.

        Indeed it’s easy to tell the biggest lies when you control the presentation.

  7. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Why will the polar vortex be blocked over the Bering Strait?
    This is what blocking over the Bering Strait in the lower stratosphere looked like in January 2018 and 2021.
    https://i.ibb.co/59Dz3HM/gfs-t100-nh-f00.png
    https://i.ibb.co/JQvTR2X/gfs-t100-nh-f00.png
    This was the ozone distribution in February 2020.
    https://i.ibb.co/jbyqPVq/gfs-toz-nh-f00.png
    Because during periods of weak solar magnetic wind fields, ozone and galactic radiation will accumulate during the winter in exactly the area where the greatest Arctic magnetic field weakening occurs. Ozone as a diamagnetic is pushed away by the stronger magnetic field. The concentration of GCR in this region is obvious, which may influence the temperature rise in this region. Conclusion – North America is prone to frequent stratospheric intrusions to the south of the continent during winter.
    The strong magnetic field of the solar wind causes a more uniform distribution of ozone, which can be compared to the shape of the aurora borealis.
    http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/charts/jpg/polar_n_dy.jpg
    https://i.ibb.co/WBxQQ9Q/latest.jpg
    Brief Introduction to Stratospheric IntrusionsStratospheric Intrusions are when stratospheric air dynamically decends into the troposphere and may reach the surface, bringing with it high concentrations of ozone which may be harmful to some people. Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low tropopause heights, low heights of the 2 potential vorticity unit (PVU) surface, very low relative and specific humidity concentrations, and high concentrations of ozone. Stratospheric Intrusions commonly follow strong cold fronts and can extend across multiple states. In satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface. This may be harmful to some people with breathing impairments. Stratospheric Intrusions are more common in the winter/spring months and are more frequent during La Nina periods. Frequent or sustained occurances of Stratospheric Intrusions may decrease the air quality enough to exceed EPA guidelines.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/

  8. Putting all the meters used to control the energy plants indoors would have avoided a lot of these problems. A frozen $100 meter placed outdoors to save money cost millions of dollars.

    • Wonder why ONCOR didn’t use their wireless Smart Meters to selectively switch off individual homes and small businesses for a few hours at a time rather than blackout whole neighborhoods for 2-3 days straight.. Could have saved a lot of lives.

    • Alex Epstein –

      “Instead, the media are telling the story that “fossil fuels failed” because certain gas and coal plants went offline in one of these regions–Texas–due to preventable problems. (We know that these problems were preventable because places that are much colder and snowier than Texas use gas and coal with great success.)”

      https://industrialprogress.com/texas-electricity-crisis-the-big-picture/

  9. I had predicted a cold shot for the first half of February 2021, we had it in the UK too. It was likely exacerbated by the January Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, but was going to happen then anyway, regardless of Siberian snow cover or Arctic sea ice extent.
    I had predicted the deep cold in early April 2021 too, which hit western Europe hard. These events are discretely solar driven, and are predictable at any range.

  10. Arguments about “global warming” have evolved to avoid using that language after the warming stopped. It is now just called “climate change”. Now it doesn’t matter whether we experience sudden and extreme cold or warmth it can always be blamed on climate change as the direction and the degree of the change no longer matter. The broader the label the more that fits under it and the less scrutiny given to the explanation for the attribution. So today global climate is equated with local weather and any bad weather is blamed on climate change.

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  12. The origin of the winter storm Uri was a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event 2-3 weeks before the polar vortex split and that caused the frigid artic air to spill out over N. America. I think human emissions of GHG are contributing to these rouge SSW events and they seem to be increasing in size, strength and frequency.

  13. See excerpts and Figures from the Paper at
    https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

    “Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the very probable long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 5. The correlative UAH 6.0 satellite TLT anomaly at the MTTP at 2003/12 was + 0.26C. The temperature anomaly at 2021/8 was + 0.18 C. (34) This satellite data set shows that there has been no net global warming for the last 17 years. As shown above, these Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear highly improbable. Science, Vol 373,issue 6554 July2021 in ”Climate panel confronts implausibly hot models” (35) says “Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast. In advance of the U.N. report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models…… into useful guidance for policymakers. “It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” says Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.”
    The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 2. From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves droughts and floods and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and late spring frosts.

    Population and Sustainability

    Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (36) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 – 2009. ………. CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.” Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty

    Additionally, the tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere’s water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now competing and stretched to their limits in many areas because of the global population increase. ………………………………… Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains. The 2021 Texas freeze killed about 200 people. Long lines for food and water provided a red-flag warning of the present dangers of a cooling world. Not coincidentally, the Earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. ……………………..The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC “consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation via “net zero” energy policies has been adopted by most Governments, Mainstream Media, NGOs and leading politicians as the basis for climate and energy policy. At COP 26 Individual Governments will decide where and how, given their different political systems and demographics, they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels.”
    It is clear that China and India have the most pragmatically useful climate and energy policies. The UK ,USA and EU are self delusional to the point of being economically suicidal.

  14. Rick Perry, former Sec of Energy and Gov of Texas, said that the problem with the natural gas system in Texas was a reflection of an EPA mandate. The pipeline compressor stations, think pump stations, were mandated to switching from natural gas powered compressors to electric powered in order to curtail emissions. Oops, when the wind stopped so did the compressors.

    • So how do natural gas power plants operate in cold states.
      And why would Texas have to operate differently?

      • joe the non climate scientist

        The compressors are located at the well sites and where low pressure gas lines feed into higher pressure gas lines. the problem is getting the gas into the pipelines .

    • Would the EPA be partly responsible for this disaster?

    • Every time you hear that it was natural gas’ failure that led to the outage, think EPA mandate to use electricity produced in large part by the wind industry, instead of the traditional compressor powered by burning natural gas. Texas has more wind energy than any other state in the union. EPA Web site “Texas leads the nation in wind-powered generation and produced about 28% of all U.S. wind-powered electricity in 2020. ” It is also 3X larger than the second state’s wind power. So when the wind stops blowing, gas stops being pushed into and down the pipelines. No wind, no natural gas. So yes EPA’s mandate is directly responsible.

      • It was ERCOT that ordered ONCOR to dump demand. Gas suppliers were supposed to file a report to ERCOT that designated their facilities (pumps and wells) should be excluded from regional grid shutdowns. Since ERCOT told ONCOR what sections of the grid to shut down based on those ‘critical infrastructure’ filings it boils down to sloppy paperwork. I don’t think there is even a fine for not reporting so nobody broke the law.
        https://www.powermag.com/ercot-program-cut-natural-gas-supply-during-winter-storm/

      • I can’t find any sign of an EPA mandate. Only this: “In 2016, the EPA issued a strong recommendation that pipeline operators convert to electric compressors throughout their operations to reduce gas losses.”

        Please provide a link to the relevant EPA regulation. thanks. My wife thinks this is bogus so I need proof.

    • Rick Perry’s probably best known for two things: failing to convince East Texas landowners that they should simply roll over and accept the confiscation of their property for a toll road project, this on behalf of a foreign-owned construction company; and a disastrous appearance on Dancing with the Stars. Granted, Perry was a better dancer than politician. Treat any allegedly factual statement from him with caution. In the case of an EPA “mandate,” I don’t think EPA ever issued such a directive. In a 2015 proposal, EPA specifically exempted wellhead compressors from conversion.

      • Agreed it was compressor stations that he was referring to. Yes, it was Rick Perry, but he was a Sec of Energy and a Gov of Texas, so he should know what he is talking about.

  15. Patrick Michaels, Is the 20% in this paragraph supposed to be 2%? The math would then be 27% – 2% = 25%.

    MiMA artificially decreases the earth’s albedo because of its lack of clouds, from constant 27% down to about a constant 20% (in reality it is never constant), which represents a massive 25% increase in solar radiation heating the earth’s surface.

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  18. (27-20)/7=.259

  19. Oops

    (27-20)/27=.259

  20. “I’ve always had trouble with the notion that warming causes cooling. ”

    Warming leads to increased snowfall.
    Thousands of articles prove this is true
    Japan Meteorological Agency 2016, Quora, the Conversation, Skeptikal science and WUWT.
    More water in the atmosphere, more rainfall, more evaporation. Evaporation causes cooling.

    Sea level rise causes coral bleaching
    [by drowning them.]
    Sea level rise: may lead to increases in sedimentation for reefs located near land-based sources of sediment. Sedimentation runoff can lead to the smothering of coral.

    More clouds giving more albedo causes rising temperatures.

    All the heat goes scuba diving in the ocean for years.

    So have I.

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  22. It stands to reason that ice ages are caused by global warming.
    Warming of the planet makes it get colder.
    Cooling of the planet makes it get warmer.
    Or something like that.

  23. Ireneusz Palmowski

    North America’s first autumn stratospheric intrusion could occur in as little as four-five days on the West Coast. Remember, ozone in the tropopause does not warm the surface, quite the opposite, it gives off heat to space.
    https://i.ibb.co/n75YGjX/gfs-o3mr-200-NA-f120.png
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/

  24. The VOSTOK ICE CORE has been rising over the last 18,000 years. The CO2 level is rising over the same period. WHY IS THE THERE NO GLOBAL COOLING?????
    COULD IT BE THAT OVER THAT PERIOD THE OCEANS ROSE FORMING THE ICE SHELF?????
    About 10,000 years ago the earth began to lose more heat to the black sky than it retained from the sun. The ocean began to drop.
    IT IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING!!!!! IT IS GLOBAL ICE MAKING AND GLOBAL ICE MELTING!!!!!

    • I am listening to SENATE hearing of the HERO LADY SWIMMERS testify in front of the POLITITIONS responsible for what they went thru.
      Now we can see why they spent 4 years trying to impeach President Trump.
      California showed us yesterday how much power the corrupt elite in this country have.

  25. I wonder if the authors would have felt the urge to explore the Texas cold event without the resulting power outage emergency.

  26. I am about as much of a layman as you can get, save for a few weather and math courses in college and a long term interest in the subject, with casual perusal of climate and weather information, but some things seem just too obviously silly to ignore. The idea that you can ascribe a very short term extreme weather event with some contrived mathematical model is not supportable, by common sense at least, in a chaotic system like Earth’s climate, Who knows what caused a week-long ripple in the Northern Hemisphere westerlies. I know for a fact a very similar cold outbreak hit the southern plains and my state of Oklahoma some 38 years earlier. By the way Oklahoma escaped the Texas sized disaster just by the “hair on our chinny chin chins” – the problem here was a spot shortage of natural gas, ( accompanied by a huge price spike.which citizens will be paying for over the next several decades). Go figure what caused that shortage .Lot more wind turbines now, though.

    I always appreciate Dr. Curry’s views and those of her posters and look forward to more of the same expert back and forth comments.

  27. Ireneusz Palmowski

    For North America, the temperature over the Chukchi Sea is important because with the circulation blocked over the Bering Sea, the jet stream will run from Siberia over the Chukchi Sea.
    https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r02_Chukchi_Sea_ts_4km.png

  28. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Sorry to digress, but I am concerned that a seemingly harmless tropical storm that is approaching the east coast of the US could bring very heavy rainfall to the eastern US.
    https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r09_Canadian_Archipelago_ts_4km.png

  29. Well Europe’s energy consumers have a simple choice:
    Nordstream ga$ or freeze yer a$$ !!

    • CO2 is controlled by the green foliage. As the oceans rose there was less green foliage. After man discovered fire then nature had competition.

  30. I would posit that the increase in Northern Hemisphere Autumn snow extent since 1995 is due to weaker solar wind states increasing negative NAO/AO conditions and driving a warmer AMO, both which reduce the sea ice extent. And that slow solar wind episodes are directly associated with the negative NAO/AO anomalies at an event level.
    The narrative that AWG induced reduced sea ice extent or increased snow cover is causing negative AO conditions, will be well out of steam when the AMO next shifts properly colder.

  31. Willard, I don’t get your complaint. The MiMA model is hardly fit for this purpose. Don’t you think it’s a little weird to paint anomalous snowcover into a GCM that has no clouds? And then run a purportedly dynamic simulation with a constant albedo (except for the artificially jacked Siberian values). The last I heard, PSV intrusions are a winter process, where the albedo of the is sure as heck a lot larger than it is in summer. The authors simply assert that MiMA is fit for purpose without any direct evidence I can find, so this paper naturally tripped my BS-meter.

    • Pat,

      I agree with you: you don’t get it.

      You wrote a “Reviewer 2” rant. Besides the large amount of incredulity it contains (which you repeat now) your rant includes a jab at the motivation of your target. My point is related to that aspect of your Reviewer 2 rant.

      You are writing your Reviewer 2 rant at Judy’s, a known contrarian blog. The curator of that blog operates a company selling forecasting services. You yourself are a known Freedom Fighter think tank talking head.

      To borrow what you once said, that kind of jab can get yourselves “killed.”

      Don’t go there.

      Is that clearer?

      • I don’t think you get it.
        Pat Michael’s comment re Cohen’s motivation is in the context that Cohen is producing a poorly reasoned and argued, specious claim with weak, insufficient and seemingly implausible supporting evidence and methods. If you go to the link in the “offending” passage you see that Cohen’s site seems to rely heavily on this lightly buttressed claim.
        Had Cohen provided a powerful, compelling and convincing case it seems highly unlikely his motivation would have been questioned. But when you advertise your whole service as being based upon this theory and then you claim a single event in a particular place in one particular month occurred because of the dubious theory, of course the motivation is relevant because it is directly linked to the theory in question.

        Do you have anything useful to say or criticize regarding Pat Michaels straightforward and reasonable critique of Cohen’s claims? Cohen as far as I know is a very smart and capable scientist and may at some point prove his theory is remarkably on point. But as of now, Michael’s criticism seems more on point than Cohen.

      • Oh, BrianB.

        Doubling down on Pat’s Reviewer 2 rant simply does not cut it.

        One does not simply justify one’s action because one is right.

        Assuming that Pat is right.

        Have you checked?

        That’s what I thought.

      • Geoff Sherrington

        Willard,
        Are you wanting to repress scientific debate, yes or no? Geoff S

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: Doubling down on Pat’s Reviewer 2 rant simply does not cut it.

        One does not simply justify one’s action because one is right.

        Assuming that Pat is right.

        Have you checked?

        Have you found any errors in Pat’s essay — if so, could you cite a few? Could you quote a few excerpts to justify calling it a “rant” rather than a “critique”?

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: Besides the large amount of incredulity it contains

        Are you besmirching scientific skepticism? The fact is that Cohen et al used an analysis procedure that is highly likely to produce unreliable results, and their specific result was never tested against out-of-sample data.

      • You’re the fifth Denizen who tries to distract me from the point I’m making, Matt Stat. You above all of them ought to know that there’s no need to check a Reviewer 2 rant. Besides, incredulity is just that, incredulity:

        Arguing from incredulity is only a kind of argument, while incredibilism is not only an argument from incredulity: it’s an overall stance by which a proposition is being portrayed as incredible. Skepticism, on the other hand, is an overall principle which guides epistemic practices.

        https://web.archive.org/web/20121031114939/http://planet3.org/2012/08/24/incredibilism/

        I’ve always had trouble with the notion that skepticism could be powered by incredulity.

      • If analysis 1 uses incredulous means for determination, it stands to reason that good epistemic logic by reviewer 1, et al, point out where any lack of credulity exists. This challenge of course represents its own basis for incredulity by the bleacher seat crowd.

      • It stands to reason that the one who needs to scratch is the one who itches.

        It’s more a matter of responsibility than causality, however. Denizens will try anything before they own their responsibility. They may Just Ask Questions. They may voice incredulity. They may ask sammiches. They may pontificate on or ironize about what stands to reason. Sometimes they even channel their inner Chewbacca and declare that nothing makes sense!

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: You’re the fifth Denizen who tries to distract me from the point I’m making, Matt Stat.

        If you made a point I missed it. Hence my request for quotes from Pat’s essay.

        As to “incredulity” as a possibly pejorative synonym for skepticism, all claims should be met with incredulity until backed up by stringent tests of the hypotheses. Everybody has read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, wherein Thomas Kuhn pointed out that most scientific claims are false.

        Cohen et al used an unreliable analysis method. Their result should not be believed until predictions from it are tested by comparison with out of sample data.

        Was it you who admitted to not understanding technical arguments?

      • > If you made a point I missed it.

        It’s right above your own comment, Matt. In fact your comment responds to it:

        You are writing your Reviewer 2 rant at Judy’s, a known contrarian blog. The curator of that blog operates a company selling forecasting services. You yourself are a known Freedom Fighter think tank talking head.

        To borrow what you once said, that kind of jab can get yourselves “killed.”

        Don’t go there.

        Is that clearer?

      • You sound like you’re expressing incredulity, Bingo. “Responsibility” is a good word though. You were asked a question: “Have you found any errors in Pat’s essay”. It would require less exhaustive scratching energy used in your circular exchanges if you could just put the itch to rest instead. So why do you always insist on staying in the shallow end of the wading pool, spattering about?

      • I don’t, Trunks. But of course, as a Denizen who is above all the Climate Ball, you will try to suggest that I do without paying any diligence to what I’m saying. Since I’m here I might as well correct Matt’s strawman:

        As to “incredulity” as a possibly pejorative synonym for skepticism, all claims should be met with incredulity

        The point of the post I cited earlier was exactly the opposite: I argued that skepticism had very little to do with appeals to incredulity!

        Had I no experience with contrarians, I might have a hard time to believe their currect reactions, including yours. Since I have some experience with them, I don’t. Ankle biting and piling on is here to stay.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: You are writing your Reviewer 2 rant at Judy’s, a known contrarian blog. The curator of that blog operates a company selling forecasting services. You yourself are a known Freedom Fighter think tank talking head.

        To borrow what you once said, that kind of jab can get yourselves “killed.”

        Don’t go there.

        If that contains a point, what is the point?

      • > If that contains a point what is the point?

        It’s hard to play dumb and smug at the same time, Matt. The point is quite simple: Pat is writing a Reviewer 2 rant at Judy’s, a known contrarian blog. The curator of that blog operates a company selling forecasting services. Pat is himself a known Freedom Fighter think tank talking head.

        Pat is therefore in no position to impugn motive on anyone.

        What goes for the goose goes for the glass house. More generally, everything you say can be said or done against you, on the Climate Ball field or elsewhere. Relatedly:

        Make an argument that you can get killed on and you will kill us all… If you loose credibility on this issue you lose this issue!

        https://neverendingaudit.tumblr.com/post/15396965101

        Ah, the good ol’ days.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: It’s hard to play dumb and smug at the same time, Matt. The point is quite simple: Pat is writing a Reviewer 2 rant at Judy’s, a known contrarian blog. The curator of that blog operates a company selling forecasting services. Pat is himself a known Freedom Fighter think tank talking head.

        Pat is therefore in no position to impugn motive on anyone.

        The conclusion does not follow. The most you can conclude is the conjecture that Pat might have a motive. His reading of the article and supporting material puts him “in position” to conjecture that the authors have a motive. Even if correct, it does not imply that anything Pat wrote is in error.

        You have not justified your claim that Pat wrote a “rant”. I conjecture that you do not understand any of the technical points.

        I don’t put much stock in conjectures about motives, because they are unreliable, and seldom relevant to understanding or evaluating whether any particular propositions are true. Same is true, of course, of Pat’s conjecture about Judah’s motives.

        So get back on point: did Pat write anything false or unsubstantiated? My reading of Pat and Judah is that Pat is correct. Judah’ et al should not be believed until their hypothesis has been tested against out-of-sample data.

      • I have a comment about private sector motives. Judah Cohen and myself stake the reputation of ourselves and our company on each forecast. Seasonal forecasts are easily verified a few months later.

        This is very different from academic motives, who are increasingly looking for the big publication and the headline, and no one cares if they are shown to be wrong weeks later.

      • > The most you can conclude is the conjecture that Pat might have a motive.

        Incorrect. The conclusion isn’t that Pat’s opponents therefore know Pat’s motives, but that he’s in no position to do so. Nobody

        Knowing Pat’s mind states is irrelevant. He could be a bot and my argument would still hold. Only Pat does matters here. As soon as he impugns motives, he cautions his opponents to do the same. This will get every contrarian killed, starting with his host.

        I can’t believe I need to tell you this. Do you have any kids?

      • > This is very different from academic motives, who are increasingly looking for the big publication and the headline, and no one cares if they are shown to be wrong weeks later.

        You heard it first at Judy’s!

        No one cares about Reviewer 2 rants on a blog, except those excited by the red meat thrown.

      • Judith –

        Surely, a large part of your ability to establish your professional reputation is based on your ability to leverage your academic status, and at some level any forecasting errors you make (which would have to be inevitable to some extent) will be weighed against your perceived academic reputation.

        It always stikes me as interesting that someone who so clearly has monetized her academic stature for decades (both within and outside of academia) further builds her reputation via her activities as a “contrarian” academic.

      • > I have a comment about private sector motives. Judah Cohen and myself stake the reputation of ourselves and our company on each forecast. Seasonal forecasts are easily verified a few months later.

        >> This is very different from academic motives, who are increasingly looking for the big publication and the headline, and no one cares if they are shown to be wrong weeks later.

        I’m so glad I read this. Now I know why we NEVER see errors or outright fraud in the private sector.

      • And before I get attacked… let me state explicitly.

        I don’t question Judith’s motives. I assume she is primarily motivated by a desire to be correct in her opinions. Just as much as the next person (whose interior motivations I can’t actually know).

        My point is that it’s (1) weak to argue against a person’s opinions by making assumptions about their motivations (when you can’t actually know what they are) and, (2) perhaps even weaker to invent reasons and categories for why your motives shouldn’t be questioned, while the motives of those who have opinions different than your own are fair game.

        Identity-oriented antipathy is always suspect, imo.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: I can’t believe I need to tell you this. Do you have any kids?

        It’s your right to believe that what you write makes sense, and I guess you do.

        My kids are ages 35+, and have interesting jobs in the tech sector of the economy. How that relates to the truth of any of Pat’s propositions you are free to elaborate.

      • What I’m saying shouldn’t be that hard to get, Matt:

        Whatever you said or did to your children, they can do or say in return to you. The only time this does not apply is when you can invoke parental authority. This kind of authority is irrelevant here, as science is meant to be a symmetrical game.

        If Pat probes interests (note: not motivations, but interests), he can’t whine if his own interests are being probed.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Willard: Whatever you said or did to your children, they can do or say in return to you.

        And this is relevant to Pat’s essay how?

      • The sentence is from Pat’s essay, Matt. Let’s see if you can get that I can see how manipulative is your line of questioning:

        Are you suggesting that Pat should remove the sentence I criticize because it has no business in his Reviewer 2 rant?

    • Poor wee willie is a fanatical cultural warrior whose professed objective is talking past contrarians while waiting for the AI economic overlord to direct global production and consumption. He and Joshua are less interested – rather not at all – in natural sciences but in trifling diversions from critical discourse. They are incapable of addressing the post and repeat obsessively the same irrelevant complaints and insults – they should be culled relentlessly. Incessant repetition should be grounds for moderation.

      • There’s no need to address a Reviewer 2 rant, Chief.

        Thank you for this comment. I will add them to your contribution to the natural sciences.

      • > Incessant repetition should be grounds for moderation.

        Oh, and why not:

        YOUR HEARD THAT FROM CHIEF!!!!11

      • Managing the interface between natural systems and human development has been the primary focus of my life.

        Por wee willies only talent is for silly games.

      • Right now you’re more trying to manage the halls of this blog right now, Chief. Soon enough you’ll return to spamming. That’s how you always win every thread!

      • But this is a game where I have an advantage over poor wee willie. I know his moves. He has so few of them – none of them science. And so he whines about losing.

      • You know my moves so well that you need to repeat your strawman about some fanatical cultural warrior whose professed objective is talking past contrarians while waiting for the AI economic overlord to direct global production and consumption, Chief.

        That you’re being enabled is the only reason why you win by spamming.

      • > YOUR HEARD THAT FROM CHIEF!!!!11

        Lol. Always the Chief of unintentional irony.

      • The strategy of these cultural warriors is to advance public acceptance of economic and social transformation with faith in the certainty of a catastrophic science that cannot exist. Attributing extreme weather events to anthropogenic causes is a key objective. Not knowing any science – Joshua and poor wee willie are reduced to repeating the same calumny incessantly in the irrational belief that it advances their cause.

      • Get over yourself, Chief. This is just a blog. Western Civilization does not rest on your shoulders. Your shining armor slows you down. It’s so passé!

        What you need is a quote, a link, and a video.

        Now’s your chance.

      • > Get over yourself, Chief.

        Will never happen. Never. Just not in his makeup.

        Blog wars against enemies must be fought by noble heroes.

      • Not true. Blog wars are fought by ignorant weasels. If you want to know what they are agin.

      • I’m not agin, Chief. You’re agin:

      • ‘You yourself are a known Freedom Fighter think tank talking head.’ poor wee willie

        Poor wee willie routinely uses the term as denigration. And cites Braveheart rather than the US constitution. Some people have no serious intent.

      • The AI overlords make me do it, Chief:

        https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/05/13/freedom-fighters/

        So once again you butt in an exchange for your silly signaling.

      • Poor wee willie doesn’t do ‘exchanges’. Talking past contrarians as a gambit is to be found on his Tumblr site. The AI overlord was seriously advanced by poor wee willie as a way of doing away with markets. Computers can save the planet by directing production and consumption. There is an obvious cultural divide never to be bridged between free markets and neo-socialists.

        Every comment by poor wee willie is an odd angry shot recycled endlessly in his fanatical culture war. We may as well recognise it for what it is.

      • Willard: “Don’t go there.”
        Do as I say, not as I do.

      • Chief –

        > Every comment by [X] is an odd angry shot recycled endlessly in his fanatical culture war. We may as well recognise it for what it is.

        Now who is the first person that comes to mind there?

        Tell the truth. Are you a Poe?

      • Says Joshua with unintended irony. The game is afoot, the moves are ridicule and denigration and we should understand the rules.

        ‘Alinsky would find an external antagonist to turn into a “common enemy” for the community within which he was operating. Often, this would be a local politician or agency that had some involvement with activity concerning the community. Once the enemy was established, the community would come together in opposition of it. This management of conflict heightened awareness within the community as to the similarities its members shared as well as what differentiated them from those outside of their organization.[4] The use of conflict also allowed for the goal of the group to be clearly defined. With an established external antagonist, the community’s goal would be to defeat that enemy.[4]’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals

        We have seen the enemy and it is us. It includes me for suggesting that innovative and entrepreneurial responses to greenhouse gas emissions are far more likely to be effective than top down imposition by government.

        They have failed and will continue to fail. Do they imagine that disrupting CE with incessant pettifogging plaints will turn that around?

      • [CHIEF] the moves are ridicule and denigration

        [ALSO CHIEF] Poor wee willie doesn’t do ‘exchanges’. Talking past contrarians as a gambit is to be found on his Tumblr site. The AI overlord was seriously advanced by poor wee willie as a way of doing away with markets. Computers can save the planet by directing production and consumption. There is an obvious cultural divide never to be bridged between free markets and neo-socialists.

      • The funny thing is I’d never heard of Alinsky until I began to be told over and over that I’m following his rules.

        > We have seen the enemy and it is us. It includes me for suggesting that innovative and entrepreneurial responses to greenhouse gas emissions are far more likely to be effective than top down imposition by government.

        I have never. EVER. said anything negative about you (or anyone else) suggesting innovative and entrepreneurial responses to GHG emissions

        Not once.

        Nope.

        Not once.

        But then again, you have long enjoyed fantasizing about me, particularly when somehow it furthers your delusions of grandeur.

      • Joshua | September 17, 2021 at 8:25 pm |
        You have gone up in everyone’s estimation.
        “I have never.
        EVER.
        said anything negative about you (or anyone else)
        Not once.
        Nope.
        Not once.””

        I didn’t leave anything out, did I?

        Negative things seem to be your forte of late.
        Try to be constructive and helpful, please.

      • amgech –

        I’m quite critical of arguments that I think fail. Of course at any time my criticisms can be wrong.

        I don’t typically criticize individuals although I recognize that distinction has some limited utility.

        I’m more likely to be critical of groups, but try to remember to caveat those criticisms, e. g., some “skeptics.”

        I don’t feel any particular reason to think there’s anything wrong about criticizing arguments. I welcome criticism of my arguments, as long as they are made in good faith.

        Anytime I mess up and criticize individuals (at least because of arguments they’ve made) or groups without caveats, I’m more than happy to acknowledge there are a number of reasons why that’s almost always facile, fallacious, and counterproductive.

        And none of that makes your arguments any less bad, unfortunately.

      • I forgit to mention…

        I do make exceptions for people like Chief, or a Don Montfort, or a David Young, or other commenters who clearly aren’t interested in good faith exchange at any level. You know, the ones who just can’t get past their fantasies about me as Chief just displayed, or xaim to not read my comments when obviously they do, or constantly insult me, etc.

        For them, there’s zero chance of productive dialog anyway, so while ecdn there I try to remember to avoid personal criticisms, and instead to focus on their arguments, I don’t see any particular reason to hold myself accountable when I forget.

      • Alinski’s rules for radicals are subsumed in Janis’ signs of groupthink that in turn are indistinguishable from neo-socialist progressive shibboleths. Does anyone expect good faith dialogue from Joshua or poor wee willie? It has never happened. Every comment after empty incessantly obsessive comment.

        They have busied themselves under this post impugning motive and character without a scintilla of science. What they collectively need is climate catastrophe to create momentum for social and economic transformation. Any suggestion that it may not be all that immediately catastrophic is a threat to the narrative that needs must be countered with all that they have. Shallow sophistry and denigration.

        Does any denizen doubt this underlying climate war social dynamic?

      • > busied themselves under this post impugning motive

        That’s, like, false, Chief.

        I see you haven’t discussed the topic of Pat’s Reviewer 2 rant in this thread. So look who’s busing himself now!

      • Shine a light on it and they take cover in deceit.

      • Chief –

        I love how you say just totally false sh1t, obviously just built on fantasizing about me, and then just carrying on as if it never happened. Here read this again:

        > We have seen the enemy and it is us. It includes me for suggesting that innovative and entrepreneurial responses to greenhouse gas emissions are far more likely to be effective than top down imposition by government.

        I have never. EVER. said anything negative about you (or anyone else) suggesting innovative and entrepreneurial responses to GHG emissions

        Not once.

        Nope.

        Not once.

      • And please, don’t sulley Pogo’s good name by quoting him. He deserves better fate than that.

      • Chief –

        You always have been, and always will be, the chief of unintentional irony

        -snip-

        Cartoonist Walt Kelly, modified Commodore Perry’s quote to, “We have met the enemy and he is us,” in a cartoon he created in 1970 celebrating the first Earth Day in 1970. The message being that man – from his treatment of the earth – is the planet’s enemy.May 7, 2018

      • As I have said, I have a masters degree in environmental science. I have spent a life conserving ecologies and an eternity – or what seems like it – with Joshua’s denials of what I didn’t say he said. In all the verbiage he doesn’t say much. And what there is is not worth reading. I generally don’t. And I’m don’t know why he can’t take my word on that.

        Only rich economies can afford environments. Innovative and entrepreneurial communities – the basis of which are the norms of economic freedom – provide solutions that Joshua avoids. I have written about polycentric management of commons, conservation and restoration of soils and ecosystems, building resilient infrastructure and developing nuclear engines. They want none of it.

      • Joshua | September 18, 2021
        Cartoonist Walt Kelly, modified Commodore Perry’s quote to, “We have met the enemy and he is us,” in a cartoon he created in 1970 celebrating the first Earth Day in 1970.

        Now this is good blogging, Joshua.
        I have a Pogo comic about “We have met the enemy and he is us,”
        And I felt it dated back to well before 1970 but could be wrong.

        We could playfully try to attach some characteristics to denizens of the swamp but I fear it would lead to you, Willard and I ending up as the bat boys and the chief more as Albert the Alligator.
        On second thoughts I will just leave it there so as not to offend anyone.

      • Chief –

        What explains why you do boldly make statements that simply aren’t true?

        First you say:

        > We have seen the enemy and it is us. It includes me for suggesting that innovative and entrepreneurial responses to greenhouse gas emissions are far more likely to be effective than top down imposition by government.

        I point out that statement is false. I have NEVER criticized YOU or ANYONE ELSE for suggesting innovative and entrepreneurial responses to GHGs. Not you. Not anyone else. EVER. If you think you can find a comment where I did, have at it. Search all you like. But you won’t find it. Ever.

        Then you go on to say I was wrong when I say what you said, WHEN I QUOTED WHAT YOU SAID, and claim you didn’t say it (despite being quoted).

        > – with Joshua’s denials of what I didn’t say..

        You said it, Chief. You were wrong. Maybe you’re embarrassed, and have trouble acknowledging that you were wrong. It would fit with your narcissisric tendencies. It’s really not that big a deal, though. You’re wrong frequently.

        But why do you just go ahead and make wrong statements, and then deny that you made them, when it’s so easy to show that you said what you said?

        Such odd behavior. Reminds me of when you claim to not read my comments and then read them and respond to them.

        Such odd behavior.

      • We have seen the enemy and it is not them but us. Pat Michaels and Judith Curry are assumed to be be on the wrong side of climate science. They are therefore targets for cancelling on some spurious point or other.

      • Chief –

        Neither Judith nor Pat nor you are my enemy. Stop fantasizing.

      • Identifying protagonists – catastrophists and contrarians – in the climate war is just being realistic. That Joshua is a catastrophist seems evident – but also as unimportant as Joshua himself. The larger picture is of cultural groupings. Climate warriors on both sides. The cultural left assuming on the basis of weather memes – to get back to the post – that climate science justifies an agenda of social and economic transformation – while commonly dissembling about their true intentions – or else thinking magically and demanding everyone else does the same in the name of science. The cultural right – of course assuming that large changes wrought by people in the Earth system are inevitably benign. ​

        True progress is to be made in innovative and entrepreneurial cultures in efficient free market economies with solid economic growth. I doubt I am wrong in putting Joshua in the camp of the cultural left who fundamentally object to anything less than a totalitarian technocracy running everything – under the rubric of poor wee willie’s AI economic overlord. Let Joshua deny it. I do admit to being surprised that he didn’t repeat the butt hurt accusation made many times in the past. Weird as that is it’s his best argument.

      • So you are of the socialist left but don’t think that climate change is an existential threat sometime this century that can only be dealt with by draconian government regulation? Or that capitalism is the problem and not the solution? Get serious.

      • We are the other in Joshua’s little world and he has still not fessed up.

      • There is a class of protagonist in the climate war who are quite keen on catastrophic weather as a justification for social and economic transformation. I’m never quite sure what that means – other than poor wee willie’s hilarious AI economic overlord. That capitalism is the problem and that the solution – contrary to experience – is government. From years of exposure I put Joshua absolutely in that camp. He may deny it – or more likely evade – but I wouldn’t believe it.

        Joshua imagines that I pore over his every word. I barely glance at the comments I respond to. It is all the same ole garbage he invariably indulges in. I am not about to suffer the tedium of reviewing vast numbers of past comments when he could just either fess up or deny that he is in that neo-socialist camp. What’s it to be Joshua? Truth or dare?

      • These AI overlords sure have premium rent in your cosmogony, Chief.

      • I discussed Hayek’s problem of knowledge in markets – from which comes his analysis of the failure of centralised planning. Billions of consumers and millions of suppliers. Poor wee willie thinks that computers could do the job. It might be a cliché but I can’t make this up.

  32. I have been pondering what if anything to write here. While keeping it on topic, fresh and pertinent. The problem in my view boils down to the limits of scientific knowledge. The earth system is a problem in fluid dynamics. Driven by planetary rotation, modulated by energy flow and heat distribution and subject to intense and rapid shifts in emergent spatiotemporal chaotic patterns of ‘quasi standing waves’. When divested of simple cause and effect future tipping points are inevitable – but who is to say what their cause will be. In such a coupled, chaotic, nonlinear system identifying anthropogenic causes against a backdrop of intense natural variability is beyond the limits of current science. Any claim to have done so is – ipso facto – dubious science.

    • In such cases, Judith’s wicked problems.
      The approach may be to just do the best you can with the bulk of the science and leave the scary but rare stuff aside.
      ” In such a coupled, chaotic, nonlinear system identifying anthropogenic causes against a backdrop of intense natural variability is beyond the limits of current science.”
      This does not mean that you cannot try to look with the caveat that it might not be correct occasionally.
      For instance if the chaos results in a return to 1970’s style temperatures and sea ice extent where does it leave our knowledge and beliefs?
      Skeptics would claim they were right.
      AGW types would suddenly become interested in your ideas and claim it was just a correction due to amazingly, natural variation.
      Your argument would still be valid but most people would still not understand it or validate it.

    • Imagining that tipping points are rare might be comforting but it is not true.

      • Imagining that tipping points are rare might be comforting but it is not true.
        True tipping points in particular situations are rare and usually not known until they happen.
        That is why they are called tipping points.
        If they happened every second you would have to use some other sort of description.
        Many things happen that are unexpected down to the toss of a coin but to compare the mundane tipping points to the ones we are talking about is a misuse of the terminology.
        13 Spades is a rare hand equivalent to a tipping point in bridge.
        Every other hand possible though is just as rare but never causes marvel or disbelief.

      • Tipping points are not random events like the toss of a coin or a hand of cards dealt. They emerge as shifts in spatiotemporal fractal patterns in fluid flow dynamics. At the scale of planetary waves we have the major chaotic oscillators that drive the dynamically complex interaction of subsystems – atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cyrosphere and biosphere – to emergent states.

        But the point was the limits of knowledge in a naturally variable system. You seem to agree.

      • UK-Weather Lass

        Yet another series of interesting exchanges that are well worth the read between RIE and angech. Thanks to you guys once again for keeping threads honest when others simply cannot resist their banal attempts to appear superior.

        Is the term tipping point misunderstood, abused, or superfluous? Nature appears to have infinite tipping points, events over which it has no control and no ‘real’ predetermined outcome influence. As an example, which sperm gets to fertilize an egg by winning the race? We may call it the ‘fittest one’ because it won, but we have no idea what happened during the race. How many tipping points were there during that race? Would the event have been any more unique had another sperm won?

        What we seem to be doing in much environmental and climate science is looking out for ‘catastrophic events’ which we believe prove the harm we are doing on Earth when such events may be very regular on billions of years timescales. Life is naturally risk averse until it is dead and doesn’t ever knowingly present as a sitting duck even if nature can see it as such when it is being spectacularly ‘destructive’.

        The Bridge hand analogy used by angech is, IMO, a perfect description of our failure to see tipping points in everyday events – the tipping points that make everything look and feel normal – when actually everything around us is unique because it cannot ever have happened in exact likeness before. As angech says every deal of a pack of cards is potentially unique, as is every coin toss etc., but to a gambler standing to lose a lot of money each may prove to be a tipping point.

      • “Yet another series of interesting exchanges that are well worth the read between RIE and angech. ”

        Thank you for the compliment to both of us.
        And your comments.
        RIE is much more up to speed on the science particularly with reference to chaos theory and tipping points.
        He also has that lovely knack of being able to back up his comments with appropriate references.

        “Is the term tipping point misunderstood, abused, or superfluous? Nature appears to have infinite tipping points.”
        “our failure to see tipping points in everyday events”

        All three.
        Most important tipping points are usually only recognized well after they happen, not before or during.
        People can also see tipping points when they believe in them or want them to happen.

  33. A measure of what I would call the likelihood of AGW being real.
    Simply take the Arctic ice Jaxa sea ice area for the last 43* years as gospel.
    If AGW is real the sea ice should decrease every year as it warms.
    If we take this year where the lowest extent was 11th we can do a simple percentage
    11/43 is roughly a 75% chance AGW is real.
    If we have a series of years where it is the lowest we can use that to say it is 99% real.
    On the other hand, if it ever returns to 1979 values we could say it is 99% certain that the theory is wrong.

    438 years thereabouts, whatever the reliable satellite figures are.

    • AGW is real and it is caused by people. Says so in the name.

      • Ricjard Greene

        I like your thought:, Mr. Ellison:
        “AGW is real and it is caused by people. Says so in the name.”

        For those with no spare time to read the latest IPCC report, which is really about imaginary future CAGW, not AGW, here is my summary, which also applies to every other IPCC report in past decades:

        After assuming all climate change is man made, and dangerous, we have concluded that climate change is man made, and dangerous.

        PS:
        Please don’t waste more time fighting with Willard.
        He is a lost cause

      • Richard Greene to Mr. Ellison:
        “PS:
        Please don’t waste more time fighting with Willard.
        He is a lost cause”

        It is more like watching young puppies or kittens at play sharpening their claws and teeth.
        All playful, Little nips and scratches here and there. Occasionally and accidental [?] bite and things get a bit rough for a while.
        Having Willard, Nick Stokes and Mosher [the good old days] commentating meant the subjects under discussion were relevant, interesting and upsetting [ie true against] certain established but obviously false AGW facts.
        No Willard means no controversy.

        I don’t think either of them mind playing with each other.
        AGW is a lost cause”

      • Curious George

        “AGW is real and it is caused by people. Says so in the name.”
        That would be a RAGW.

    • Angech: Radiative transfer calculations show that rising CO2 slows radiative cooling to space. The law of conservation of energy demands that our climate system warm somewhere below the TOA until outgoing and incoming fluxes are in balance. However, rising CO2 slows radiative cooling to space only because temperature falls with altitude where most thermal infrared photons are being absorbed. Antarctica is the one place on the planet where temperature increases with altitude winter (but decreases with altitude in the summer). To some extent, Antarctica is cut off from the rest of the planet by circumpolar winds and current and doesn’t show much, if any, warming. Air subsides over Antarctica and cold winds freezes the sea ice around the continent. So the phenomena you note are perfectly consistent with the AGW hypothesis – but this complications are not highly publicized. (The consensus wants the public to think AGW is caused by simple trapping of heat by GHGs that anyone can understand.)

      • Franktoo | September 17, 2021
        Thank you for your response

        “Radiative transfer calculations show that rising CO2 slows radiative cooling to space.”

        An interesting comment.

        Radiative cooling is the process by which a body loses heat by thermal radiation. As Planck’s law describes, every physical body spontaneously and continuously emits electromagnetic radiation.

        How does CO2 stop or slow other particles emitting radiation?
        It cannot.

        As far as I am aware all of the radiation that comes in is supposed to go out.
        Think about that.
        If energy comes in it goes out at the same rate.
        Physics.

        “The law of conservation of energy demands that our climate system warm somewhere below the TOA until outgoing and incoming fluxes are in balance”.

        No.
        Remember that the TOA by definition is where the fluxes are always balanced.
        Hence energy is always balanced.
        By definition.

        What people are confusing is the idea that heat can be trapped anywhere in a system.
        Because they see different substances at different temperatures and think they have the same energy.

        Again with the unreal analogies.
        The earth .
        No energy for a day, no sun for a day very cold.

        Turn on the sun
        How many Hiroshima bombs hit the earth in 8 minutes?
        How much does this heat up the atmosphere and the earth surface and the top of the by now frozen oceans?

        Lets say 100 million.
        Within 8 minutes .
        Look at the next 8 minutes,
        another 100 million in but also 100 million out.
        How is that possible.
        Planck.

        What temperatures do we see.
        Boiling oceans and hell like atmosphere on the sunny side.
        116C on land. Clouds everywhere.
        Get a lot of clouds at 116C on ice.
        1364 W/M squared all in
        Average temp of globe ? 255C and rising
        After 24 hours
        still 100 million in and out every 8 minutes.
        but now a rearrangement of the deck chairs.

        Instead of one very cold segment super heating we have a spread of radiatively warmer molecules. We have GHG in the air intercepting IR from the sun and radiating it back out.
        Not storing heat. They merely emit what they get in and have to be at that temperature to do so.
        Going down it is now less hot locally as convection spreads the areas losing the heat out.
        100 million bombs in 8 minutes is the sort of energy flow that needs objects at our current earth temperature to do so. Bingo.
        In 24 hours we have a reconstituted earth atmosphere strangely identical to what we have now.
        Further spread of the energy levels of the emitting molecules leads to slow glacier melting and warming seas at the expense of cooling earth land surface and atmospheric warmth.

      • While ultimately energy out will equal energy in – and the system will tend to energy equilibrium at TOA due to the Planck feedback – warming and cooling of the planet is due to energy imbalances.

        d(heat&work)/dt = energy in – energy out

        Warming implies that more energy is being retained in the system.

      • Robert I. Ellison | September 18, 2021
        Thanks for putting up the conventional and most likely correct viewpoint.

        “While ultimately energy out will equal energy in – and the system will tend to energy equilibrium at TOA due to the Planck feedback – warming and cooling of the planet is due to energy imbalances.
        d(heat&work)/dt = energy in – energy out
        Warming implies that more energy is being retained in the system.”

        How is energy retained in a system?
        How can energy be retained in a system?

        Any system that is above 0 K releases energy until it has no more it is able to release.
        There are no batteries.
        No storage systems and no way to slow down EM flow at the micro level.

        Heat comes in, Heat goes out.

        What you claim is retained energy does not and cannot exist.
        Why do you think a surface has extra energy?
        Surfaces go to the emission temperature for the energy they have both naturally and received.
        They cannot store it or make it.
        It is either in them [and will go out] Or coming into them, in which case it gores to the right temperature to go out.

        What people see is a hot seat in the sun and they say there is energy stored in that.
        There is energy and it has a temperature for that energy but it is never storing extra energy.
        The warming seat only implies that it has received extra energy and is about to release it.
        Measure it and you say it is warmer.
        But not from any stored extra energy, just the energy it is about to put out.

      • Oceans store most of the heat in the system.

      • Robert I. Ellison | September 18, 2021 at 3:52 am |

        “Oceans store most of the heat in the system.”

        No.

        No storage whatever.

        Take a cannon ball. where does it store heat?
        Nowhere.
        Take a block of ice where does it store heat?
        Nowhere.
        No batteries.
        Now take a kilometer block of ocean where does it store heat.
        Magically, because it is warmer than the ice block, it must be storing heat?
        No.
        No batteries. No storage mechanism’

        Take any non self heating object and show me and yourself exactly where this heat is stored.

        The oceans receive 2/3 of the heat as 2/3 of the surface area.
        The heated part is only a thin skim on the top of deep cool naturally conducting and radiating water molecules not heated by the sun.
        The sun provides enough energy in 8 minutes for it to have to get hotter [temperature wise] to release the extra energy that the sun has put in energy wise.
        There is no stored energy.
        The energy state you see is merely what it has to be for the energy that has has just come in from the sun and is going to go straight out again.

        It is a massive amount of energy for a very small surface film on the surface film of the deeper oceans.

      • It is technically a nonequilibrium thermodynamic system. Energy flows in, the planet warms, heat is transported and flows out again. But it is not a steady state – if there is an imbalance in energy in and energy out for whatever reason the planet warms or cools. A warmer planet planet contains more energy and vice versa. Most planetary heat content – some 92% – is in oceans.

      • Heat is stored in water as internal energy at phase transitions – or in the kinetic energy of molecules.

      • “”But it is not a steady state – if there is an imbalance in energy in and energy out for whatever reason the planet warms or cools. A warmer planet planet contains more energy and vice versa. Most planetary heat content – some 92% – is in oceans.
        Heat is stored in water as internal energy at phase transitions – or in the kinetic energy of molecules.”

        But it is a steady state.
        As you have repeated many times energy in equals energy out.
        That is the definition of a steady state.

        Take a tank of water full to the brim with a 1 inch pipe putting I litre of water extra in a minute.
        The water runs out over the top 1 litre a minute.
        There is no more water [energy] in the tank after 1 minute than when you started.
        You have put more energy [water] in but that has all come out.

        There is no magic storage of water or heat.
        None.
        Very hard to get this concept because it looks like there is more energy in the system as the system is radiating more heat.
        But the water is active with force too, the water is moving, running over the edge

        No batteries RE
        No storage.
        The bonds in the molecules can vibrate taking the energy in and stop when they put it out. What you measure as the temperature is the energy or heat that has already been lost [why it is heating up your thermometer.]

      • “Heat is stored in water as internal energy at phase transitions – or in the kinetic energy of molecules.”

        “Heat is present in water as internal energy at phase transitions – or in the kinetic energy of molecules.”.

        What makes you think it is stored?
        Seriously.
        If you take some water, under ideal conditions in space away from the sun.
        Does it store its heat?
        No.
        The heat is always going out.
        Always.
        SB.

        What gives the illusion that heat is being stored as you put it above?
        Because it is only an illusion.
        No batteries hiding in the phase transitions.
        The reason you assume it is storing energy is because you conceive of it being in a glass or a lake or an ocean at earth conditions.

        Every second it is having energy poured into it from the sun [the heat source for the earth]
        and it is pouring out that energy to reach the steady state of its environment.
        It is not storing it.
        It has no storage.

        Kinetic energy?
        When an object is heated parts move faster.
        Temperature definition.
        Not energy.
        Energy is mass of moving particles by temperature.
        Every moving molecule leaves a somewhat slower and less vibrating group of surface molecules as the flip side. The energy comes in and out by IR .
        The jiggling of part of the system is compensated by less movement elsewhere

      • I should see it as a frozen comet rather than water in the Earth system? Kinetic energy is energy as it moves through the system from the source to black space. You say there is a difference between energy stored and present in the system. Science demands simple and precise language – but this is a distinction without merit.

      • I’m happy.
        I think the tank of water analogy is awesome
        in explaining that energy input is not energy storage.
        No batteries in nature.

        Similar to the problem with attractive forces like gravity.
        Someone has to find a lassoo, chuck it over an object, crank up an energy source and pull it in.
        Too many steps.
        People still believe in gravity pulling them down.
        Much simply to have objects flow into empty space as per Einstein.

      • Water above absolute zero has a calculable energy content. Stretching analogies past breaking points is not science.

  34. 43* YEARS.

  35. Before there was dubious climate science, there was dubious ozone science.

    https://wp.me/pTN8Y-8uZ

  36. Ireneusz Palmowski

    SOI is rising and the Niño 4 index is falling rapidly.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

  37. Ireneusz Palmowski

    You can already see the first blast of winter in the Rocky Mountains.
    https://i.ibb.co/myNch1D/gfs-o3mr-200-NA-f120.png

    • Snow in the US Rockies this morning. As I recall there was snow in the same region up through June, which means only 2 months without snow.

  38. See comment earlier on this thread
    https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/14/dubious-climate-science-about-the-texas-cold-disaster/#comment-959797
    Here are quotes from the comment.

    See excerpts and Figures from the Paper at
    https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

    “In Figure 4 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

    The CI designation here integrates changes in solar magnetic field strength, TSI, EUV, IMF, Solar wind density and velocity, CMEs, proton events, the BZ sign and changes in the GCR neutron count which modulates cloud cover and thus albedo.

    The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

    Figure 4 shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar “activity” variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

    The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

    The temperature increase since the1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar ” activity” Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 “Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD” (ibid). Figure 4 also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (27). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 – 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. The Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans.
    The CET in Figure 4 shows that this up-leg in the CET has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 3 at least that same amount of future cooling from the 2004 high is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 4 without any measurable effect of C02 levels…………………………………………..
    “Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the very probable long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 5. The correlative UAH 6.0 satellite TLT anomaly at the MTTP at 2003/12 was + 0.26C. The temperature anomaly at 2021/8 was + 0.18 C. (34) This satellite data set shows that there has been no net global warming for the last 17 years. As shown above, these Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear highly improbable. Science, Vol 373,issue 6554 July2021 in ”Climate panel confronts implausibly hot models” (35) says “Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast. In advance of the U.N. report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models…… into useful guidance for policymakers. “It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” says Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.”
    The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 2. From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves droughts and floods and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and late spring frosts………..”
    No later commentators in the thread appear appear to have read or wish to question the above.
    The reality is that general trends out to about 2700 and short term forecasts out to 2037 seem reasonably obvious from the patterns of past data.
    Another deep freeze for Texas in March/April 2022 appears to be very likely

  39. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The low, whose center remains over Louisiana, is recovering and bringing downpours from Louisiana to Florida.
    You can clearly see the effect of La Niña in US weather.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

  40. Ireneusz Palmowski

    How anomalies of the stratospheric polar vortex work.
    “Linking the pattern of AO in the troposphere to the strength modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex provides perhaps the best measure of the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. By examining the time series of AO signatures at the troposphere and stratosphere levels separately, it is shown that AO anomalies tend to appear first in the stratosphere and propagate downward. The mid-winter correlation between the 90-day low-pass filtered 10-hPa anomaly and the 1000-hPa anomaly exceeds 0.65 when the surface anomaly time series is delayed by about three weeks. The tropospheric signature of the AO anomaly is characterized by significant changes in storm tracks and midtropospheric flow strength, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe. Implications of large stratospheric anomalies as precursors to changes in tropospheric weather patterns are discussed.”

    These anomalies translate into geopotential anomalies, resulting in circulation changes in the upper troposphere.
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_JFM_NH_2021.png
    “Geopotential anomalies from the Earth’s surface to the central stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere are dominated by a mode of variability known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO is represented here by the leading mode (first empirical orthogonal function) of low-frequency variability of the winter geopotential in the 1000-10 hPa range. In the central stratosphere, the AO signature is a nearly zonally symmetric pattern representing a strong or weak polar vortex.”
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JD900445

  41. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The stratosphere functions very differently than the troposphere. Heat dissipates with ozone in the lower stratosphere, reaching its lowest temperature at the tropopause, with the tropopause (lowest temperature) on planets with fairly dense atmospheres occurring at a pressure level of about 0.1 bar.
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2021.png
    “A minimum atmospheric temperature, or tropopause, occurs at a pressure of around 0.1 bar in the atmospheres of Earth, Titan, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, despite great differences in atmospheric composition, gravity, internal heat and sunlight. In all of these bodies, the tropopause separates a stratosphere with a temperature profile that is controlled by the absorption of short-wave solar radiation, from a region below characterized by convection, weather and clouds.”
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2020

  42. Willard, please. So, your argument is that questioning motives is inappropriate? You have refused to criticize the specific criticisms identified by Pat and have painfully, agonizingly, and awfully returned to your trivial point. You have diminished the value of this post by focusing on something that has been established in academics and industry for years. Motives matter but do not discredit valid arguments and data. You have painfully, awfully, annoyingly, and destructively focused this post on an issue that does not need to be addressed. Please desist and get over yourself and go away.

    • Hi Dr. Curry,

      Well said, especially as the success or failure of your enterprises (and whether they stay solvent) will result on your accuracy. There are many far brighter people than myself in the academic world but I wonder how many would take responsibility if their conclusions or recommendations on any topic went wrong. Working in engineering risk assessment means I can be expensively held accountable (or even wind up in jail) if I foul up. I raised this point on the issue of food security in the article I wrote for the climate coalition which is on their website. Academic does have another meaning of course here.

  43. Dear Denizens of Judith’s place: Please, in the future, do not address Willard in any way shape or form, unless he happens on rare occasion to add a pertinent question or opinion to the discussion. It was remarkably clear here that all he wanted to do here was to hijack this thread so the real, valid criticisms of the work in question would not appear. Come on, we are better than this. Don’t answer him because your ego can’t stand his. Just do not respond to him. As a scientist in another field, I first became suspicious of climate science by reading responses made by climate scientists on other blogs, which were not consistent with responses actual trained scientists would have made. I know nothing of Willard and do not want to, but contrarian sites need to be better than “REAL CLIMATE” and we need to act like we respect the principles and practices of science. PLEASE!!

    Don’t expect a response from me, Willard. I don’t need to prove anything to anybody.

    • joe - the non climate scientist

      Stephen – I concur

      stephen’s comment – “As a scientist in another field, I first became suspicious of climate science by reading responses made by climate scientists on other blogs, which were not consistent with responses actual trained scientists would have made.”

      similar observation with other “science only based websites such as “”skeptical Science”.

  44. Dear Denizens of the Curry blog:

    Please, I am begging you, do not respond to Willard ever again unless he happens to make a pertinent contribution to the discussion. His effort on this thread was painfully obvious. He wanted to hijack the thread to an irrelevant point and prevent real contributions about the critique of the paper in question. The first reason that I became suspicious of climate science was the response of major players in that field to comments on REAL CLIMATE. As I scientist in another field, these responses did not remotely resemble the responses that would have been made by real scientists. Particularly at the more objective climate science sites (like Judith’s), we need to demonstrate that we do not need to respond to folks like Willard who are obviously trying to prevent meaningful discussion.

    Willard, no need to reply to me. I don’t need to prove anything to anyone.

    • Stephen Pruett Please, I am begging you, do not respond to Willard ever again unless he happens to make a pertinent contribution to the discussion.

      My advice? Keep you composure and skip over what he writes.. I seldom read his contributions. In this thread, something intrigued me. His responses were nonsensical, so skip our whole interchange.

  45. just following the science but seems to me – the author’s couch their conjectures in mathematical models whereas most of the biased, misleading and misinforming pandemic doomster soothsayers simply lie out their arses…

    • The Covid science and public policy nightmare might be just what we needed to bring to a head a problem long time festering: peer reviewed garbage coupled with political gatekeepers blocking good science.

      https://spectatorworld.com/topic/wuhan-coverup-covid-typical-scientific-corruption/

      “Giving phony research a scientific veneer, it turns out, is not all that hard, according to David Randall and Christopher Welser, co-authors of the ‘The Irreproducibility Crisis of Modern Science: Causes, Consequences, and the Road to Reform.’ Typical methods include using unreliable statistical formulas, depending on sample sizes that are too small to be accurate, giving credence to small effects, and, most suspiciously of all, refusing to share one’s raw experimental data with colleagues.”

      “One result, well-documented for more than 25 years, is that any academic study that contradicts left-wing thinking has an especially difficult time getting the peer endorsements needed for publication. This is true even when the rejected paper is just as comprehensively researched as the more liberal papers commonly accepted by prestigious journals.”

      “Ioannidis himself now believes that up to half of the discoveries ever published in peer-reviewed social science and medical journals are wrong, an opinion he shares with National Association of Scholars (NAS) president Peter Wood. One terrible result, says Wood, is that many of the regulations, laws, and programs routinely passed by Congress on the basis of supposedly solid research have no real scientific justification.”

    • “Ioannidis himself now believes that up to half of the discoveries ever published in peer-reviewed social science and medical journals are wrong, an opinion he shares with National Association of Scholars (NAS) president Peter Wood. One terrible result, says Wood, is that many of the regulations, laws, and programs routinely passed by Congress on the basis of supposedly solid research have no real scientific justification.”

      https://spectatorworld.com/topic/wuhan-coverup-covid-typical-scientific-corruption/

      • As a religious leader Mann perhaps had a great deal of influence over his sycophantic followers. But as a scientist you are not supposed to teach how to produce a flood of hockey stick-shaped graphs by simply feeding noise into a mathematical model that works like a maniacal global warming doomsday machine stuck in maximum overdrive.

  46. Ireneusz Palmowski

    North America will now be between two strong highs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. They will be pushing a tropical wave over the Gulf of Mexico and North America.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

    • I wonder how much centennial and millennial variability there has been in precipitable water within the Indo Pacific Warm Pool. Would that map have looked the same during the MWP and LIA. I assume it would correlate with the SST variability. In the very little research I just did, this was interesting.

      “ The global PWs have been changing in the past 60 years and, to some extent, strongly in recent 10 years. Based on the analysis of the long-term accumulation of radiosonde observations, it is found that PWs at Australian stations present statistically significant decreasing trends in the last 60 years, while PWs at most stations in the US have increasing trends, which is consistent with previous studies.”

      Zhang, et al 2018

      Yet another variable for the debate about forest fires in Australia.

      • Ireneusz Palmowski

        Dry air can be very cold. This is the case during La Niña in California. Cold winds from the northeast increase the threat of forest fires, especially since there may be more stratospheric ozone in the winter air.

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      Tropical Storm PETER
      As of 12:00 UTC Sep 19, 2021:

      Location: 17.4°N 55.8°W
      http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=conus&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

  47. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Only one very faint spot is now visible on the solar disk.
    https://i.ibb.co/KjQKt4d/latest.jpg

  48. ‘The bottom line is that Cohen et al. are going to have to be lot more convincing before I believe that a single month’s snowfall in Siberia drives the weather thousands of miles and several months away.’ PM

    Me too. Zonal or meridional patterns of storm fronts are emergent behaviour of the polar vortices caused by the interaction of many processes in a coupled, nonlinear, complex dynamical system. But if we can solve global warming by calling Joshua a ‘poopyhead’ – I’m in.

  49. Pingback: Weekly Climate And Energy News Roundup #471 – Watts Up With That?

  50. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Strange situation on the Sun. It looks like the solar fields are at the poles, and they should be moving towards the equator until the polarity changes.
    No sunspots.
    https://i.ibb.co/FzVN23C/AR-CH-20210917.png

  51. Geoff Sherrington

    This thread has been seriously disrupted by repeated, low-quality, off-topic comments by three known serial offenders.
    Judith, might it be time for a period in the sin bin?
    I suspect that among many others, I am no closer to an answer about the primary causes of the Texan electricity failure last February. As an Aussie, I have action all around me to increase penetration of renewables despite the questionable benefit of those already installed.
    Judith, I hold you and your blog in high regard and I regret the likely loss of knowledgeable potential contributors who might have deserted these pages for the time being because of the damage from these trolls. (That outcome might have been the planned objective).
    What, might I please ask, is now considered to be the most reliable and credible available report that analyses the Texan event? Geoff S

    • Joe - the non climate scientist

      Geoff – Texas February electric failure ” The Time line and Evenosts of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts” July 2021 , University of Texas at Austin.

      The report/study seems fairly technical with lots of discussion of load forecasts and other discussions of loads and specific events covering those 3-4 days prior to the 1am Feb 15th event. Also a lot of discussion on safety shut off when grid frequency drops. Depending of the degree of drop in frequency, the grid (or portions of the grid ) are designed for automatic shut down with in 9 minutes down to as quickly as 2 secs (59.4 hz with 2 sec shutoff when frequency drops below 57.5hz).

      Very little discussion of the broad policy issues / energy generation mix with the exception of a comment that Wind lost power generation the earliest (Feb 10th).

      I emphazie the point about frequency because, Wind has such drastic shifts in electric generation, that frequency in the grid becomes much more difficult to maintain at required frequency. (at least, that is my understandig)

      • Would it surprise anyone that the main reason the grid almost collapsed was due to the private sector not filing a required ‘notice of critical infrastructure’ report with ERCOT? Why should they since there was no penalty for ignoring it for years. ERCOT saw this weather event coming a week in advance but did next to nothing to reach out to the private sector (gas production and distribution) to avoid being disconnected from the grid. The 2-3 day-ahead wind/solar forecasts were about 80-90 percent accurate – I should know since I have my own solar and never lost the grid where I live (I’m near a small telco antenna farm).
        https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/14/dubious-climate-science-about-the-texas-cold-disaster/#comment-959819

      • joe - the non climate scientist

        Jack from Texas – ” The 2-3 day-ahead wind/solar forecasts were about 80-90 percent accurate – I should know since I have my own solar and never lost the grid where I live”

        Not sure what your definition of 80-90 accurate is supposed to mean. Wind was expected to generate at 10-12% of capacity, but only produced at 5-7% capacity. On a separate note, that is common during the winter months, so the question is how more wind generation is going to solve the problem.

        jacksmith comment – “Would it surprise anyone that the main reason the grid almost collapsed was due to the private sector not filing a required ‘notice of critical infrastructure’ report with ERCOT?”

        Most knowlegeable people would seriously doubt that failure to file a report caused the blackout

      • Joe,
        I know it seems so simplistic but ERCOT used that list to tell ONCOR which parts of the grid to NOT shut down. The (2012) requirement to make sure that all the players in the oil & gas sector kept the paper work up to date was the responsibility of the Texas Railroad Commission who controls the fossil fuel infrastructure. Layers of different regulators and agencies ended up with someone dropping the ball. The biggest cause of the cascading blackouts was ONCOR shutting down remote well and pumping stations that actually didn’t freeze during the storm. Most all of our technology worked pretty well considering the extreme conditions, even the gas networks that had electrical power.

      • joe - the non climate scientist

        Jack for Tx

        Your explanation doesnt make sense
        1 The decisions on maintaining gas supplies etc are made in real time, not based on reports filed monthly, semi annually or annually.
        2 Oncor only covers 1/3 to 1/4 of of Texas. Its doubtful that Oncor had the ability to shut down pumping stations across the entire state when they service less than a 1/3 of the state.

      • Joe,
        You are right about ONCOR, they only control a large percentage of the affected areas but not all. The rest of the utilities function the same way as ONCOR does under ERCOT I think. It seems to me the weak link was having the Railroad Comm. be responsible to keep the records up to date. I also fault ERCOT for not having a plan to use the wireless smart meter network to control the demand side instead of having days long blackouts. Sales of small backup power systems have been through the roof with 6-9 month lead times. Lots of people spending big $$ to avoid having to depend on the grid.

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      If you bring up the topic of stratospheric intrusions into the southern US during the fall/winter/spring season, I will concede the point.
      https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_200_NA_f000.png
      https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      And that’s the forecast for the next few days.
      https://i.ibb.co/2jTmBwT/gfs-o3mr-250-NA-f036.png
      https://i.ibb.co/k2p0gx5/gfs-T2ma-us-7.png

    • Geoff

      Yes, this thread has gone off the rails, crashed down a hillside and landed upside down in the river.

      It takes a lot of effort to write an article and it is a shame for the author that the topic has not been allowed to develop through the medium of questioning, argument and discussion

      Tonyb

    • February 2021 was not the first time Texas had problems delivering electricity during extremely cold weather. These problems go back to the 1980s. The problem was worse in February 2011. And the worst, so far, was February 2021. I assume the next unusually cold weather period will be even worse than February 2021.

      An official August 2011 report diagnosed the February 2011 rolling blackouts that caused 3.2 million Texans to lose power. That report is at the link below.
      It is a long report that I read after the February 2011 incident.

      The report said the entire Texas energy infrastructure (beyond just electricity power plants) was not winterized like what you would see in colder Northern states. Even the windmills they bought did not have the optional blade deicers.

      Having lots of windmills in 2021 did not directly cause the blackout. They were expected to provide little output in February 2021. In spite of roughly half having blade icing problems, the rest of the windmills produced about two thirds of the output ERCOT had expected from ALL their windmills. Except for a few hours before the blackouts began, when there was little wind power output. Unfortunately, very low output can happen for an hour or more every week with the ERCOT windmills. That’s why over 100% fossil fuel backup is required.

      The primary problem in Texas was investing in a lot of windmills after 2011, and NOT investing in more fossil fuel plants, and not winterizing the energy infrastructure, as recommended in the August 2011 report. The unusually cold weather problem is not solved, and apparently will never be solved — too expensive. Better to waste money on more windmills?

      https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf

      • joe - the non climate scientist

        Richard G – there are three separate issues with the Ercot Feb 2021 black out.

        1) What specific causes led up to the failure.
        2) What were the ancillary causes that help facilitate the failure
        3) what is long term solution

        1) the immediate problem was the gas delivery issues, complete failure of renewables, and failure to winterize.
        2) The diversion of improvements and upgrades to the unreliable renewables ,
        3) While renewables were not the immediate direct cause, the near complete failure of renewables clearly demonstrates that they are not only NOT a solution, but in fact greatly inhibit a comprehensive solution

      • Richard Greene

        To Joe the non climate scientist (didn’t see a Reply button by your name):

        There was NOT a complete failure of the renewables (windmills).

        Failure is an engineering term.
        The windmills did not fail, from an engineering point of view.

        They did what they were designed to do — produce some amount of power when the wind is blowing more than 6 or 7 mph.. And the Texas windmills, without the optional blade deicers, were not designed to produce power when the blades are iced. And that is exactly what happened.

        In fact the ERCOT windmills that were still operating (not iced) managed to average about 2/3 of the expected low output ERCOT had projected for February. For a few hours before the blackout, much less output. That’s the way the wind blows!

        It is unfair to blame windmills for more than a small portion of the lack of power in Texas.

        It is fair to blame Texans for investing so much money in windmills, KNOWING they are the least reliable source of electricity, and also creating an ERCOT grid with too little spare capacity — roughly half the national average (should have been above average with so many windmills).

        The problem was not with the windmills failing to do what they were designed to do. The problem with windmills was Texans thinking that lots of unreliable windmills were a good investment for their electric grid.

        Remember that Texas had cold weather problems in 2011 with far fewer windmills in use back then.

      • joe the non climate scientist

        Richard coment – ” In fact the ERCOT windmills that were still operating (not iced) managed to average about 2/3 of the expected low output ERCOT had projected for February. For a few hours before the blackout, much less output. That’s the way the wind blows!”

        Richard – I think we agree, though let me clarify my comment. While wind generated as you said 2/3 of projection, the projection was that wind would produce approx 10% of capacity, where as wind produced 6-8% of capacity, so they did produce 2/3 of their projected output. That being said, winds generation went for 25mw per hour the prior week down to 1-3 mw per hour from feb 12 through the the 19th with only a few hours generating 7-8mw.

        I think we also agree that wind can not nor ever will be reliable enough.

  52. Agreed, Geoff. Far too many of the posts here are the repetitive output of three posters.

    While it’s true that discussions evolve and rightly provoke additional comments as new issues (perspectives) surface, simple arguments don’t seem to advance at least my understanding.

    I dropped reading at two other blogs because they came to host relentless food fights and later became echo chambers for views I couldn’t share.

    Judy, is it possible to revisit the rules regarding posting frequency or even better put the miscreants identified by Geoff on some time-out cycle?

  53. OOPs, sorry! read Judith for Judy above.

  54. The EU is having a serious energy crunch. So much so that two fertilizer plants had to shut down. This push for “green energy” is having a negative impact on crops that “global warming” can only hope for.

    https://judithcurry.com/2021/09/11/week-in-review-science-edition-129/#comment-960099

  55. Ireneusz Palmowski

    In two days, a spike in the stratosphere will move over the Midwest that could hurt agriculture. Such an early stratospheric intrusion this year is a serious warning for North America ahead of the coming winter.
    https://i.ibb.co/DWmRZLN/gfs-o3mr-150-NA-f048.png
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_150_NA_f048.png
    A large high has developed over central Canada and temperatures will drop quickly.

  56. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The animation below perfectly shows the meridional circulation over North America. You can also see that storm Peter in the Atlantic has survived the shear and is approaching Hispaniola from the north.

  57. Ireneusz Palmowski

    America should know that we are entering a new climate era, the era of the quiet Sun. There is currently an absence of large sunspots, a strong decrease in high-energy UV radiation that produces ozone in the stratosphere, and very high levels of galactic radiation as during the solar cycle minimum.
    https://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/solar/mgii_composite_2.png
    https://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/gomemgii.html
    https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/monitor.gif


  58. Britain risks blackouts for industry if harsh winter strikes Europe
    businesstelegraph
    September 20, 2021No comment
    posted on Sep. 20, 2021 at 11:20 pm

    A harsh winter could force the UK to restrict business’ energy supplies shutting down factories in a throw-back to the three-day week of the 1970s, according to sector experts.

    A spike in natural gas prices forced the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng into crisis talks with energy providers over the weekend. It has thrown the security of the country’s energy supplies into the spotlight, revealing vulnerabilities which government advisors claim to have repeatedly raised with government to no avail.

    The business secretary emphasised the UK’s ability to produce nearly 50 per cent of the gas it needed last year in a statement to parliament on Monday and also suggested that key energy ally Norway could help meet shortfalls from elsewhere. He dismissed suggestions that there could be any supply shortages in the months ahead.

    However, UK gas production has fallen this year and net imports of gas to the UK more than doubled in the three months to June compared to the same period in the previous year, the latest data released in August showed. Exports fell by more than three-quarters (76 per cent) and imports rose by 31 per cent during this period.

    The UK’s gas storage would run low within weeks if there was a Europe-wide supply crunch triggered by a severe winter, according to academics and consultants who have advised the UK on energy security and market capacity. The supply crunch would most likely hit Britain in February and March: the worst months for storage levels in recent years, according to data gathered by the National Grid which overseas energy infrastructure.

    “From an industrial perspective the risk that we cannot ignore is that the price rises so high that it chokes off activity and the economic recovery,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “We could get to a point of rationing energy, and politicians don’t want people freezing in their homes so the other option is for industry to shut down.”

    Energy-intensive industries would be the first to be impacted, Mr Hansen said, pointing to nitrogen fertiliser companies that suspended production last week. These concerns round counter to statements from the government on Monday after meetings with energy companies.

    https://www.businesstelegraph.co.uk/britain-risks-blackouts-for-industry-if-harsh-winter-strikes-europe/

  59. ‘For example, lake sediments have been analysed to demonstrate that a grand minimum of solar activity, the Homeric Minimum (∼2,750–2,550 years before present), affected climate conditions through western Europe through altered regional circulation consistent with the negative phase of the NAO48.’ https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

    I struggle with the language let alone the details of related ocean and atmospheric circulation. Jet streams form below the tropopause at the polar front between the polar cells and the midlatitude cells. Polar vortices form as a result of planetary rotation. The walls of the vortices extend from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere forming the polar fronts. The location of the fronts change with polar temperatures and related height of the tropopause over the poles and polar surface pressure. More negative southern and northern annular modes (SAM and NAM) – indices of polar and subpolar surface pressure – drive excursions of the polar fronts into lower latitudes. While lower solar activity may cause a more negative bias in the highly variable annular modes – these indices have drifted positive in the past few decades resulting in stronger polar westerlies at higher latitudes. Albeit with frequent shifts to negative states.
    More zonal polar westerlies drive enhanced flow in gyres in all the world’s oceans. This causes enhanced upwelling on eastern oceanic margins. Changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation feed back into the polar annular modes.

    My feeling is that internal dynamics – including the effects of greenhouse gas emissions – are more important than solar variability in this mode of climate variability. But it is far from simple.

  60. The July 23 2021 Week in Review is no longer accepting replies.
    I checked the August 3rd entry pile of numbers and noticed I ow an apology..to the CDC, testers ant contact tracers. I thought the CDC had to be playing with the total test number. I thought the testers and contact tracers could not be doing that many tests.
    This month shows I was completely wrong. ALL ARE WORKING HARDER THAN EVER AND SAVING MANY LIVES.

  61. Ireneusz Palmowski

    “The steep rise in European gas prices has been driven by a combination of a strong recovery in demand and tighter-than-expected supply, as well as several weather-related factors. These include a particularly cold and long heating season in Europe last winter, and lower-than-usual availability of wind energy in recent weeks.”
    “Recent increases in global natural gas prices are the result of multiple factors, and it is inaccurate and misleading to lay the responsibility at the door of the clean energy transition,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

    Going forward, the European gas market could well face further stress tests from unplanned outages and sharp cold spells, especially if they occur late in the winter. Gas storage levels in Europe are well below their five-year average but not markedly below their previous five-year lows, which were reached in 2017.”
    “Based on the available information, Russia is fulfilling its long-term contracts with European counterparts – but its exports to Europe are down from their 2019 level. The IEA believes that Russia could do more to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure storage is filled to adequate levels in preparation for the coming winter heating season. This is also an opportunity for Russia to underscore its credentials as a reliable supplier to the European market.”

    “European electricity prices have climbed to their highest levels in over a decade in recent weeks, rising above 100 euros per megawatt-hour in many markets. In Germany and Spain, for example, prices in September have been around three or four times the averages seen in 2019 and 2020. This increase has been driven by the surge in gas, coal and carbon prices in Europe. The strong rise in gas prices led electricity providers in a number of European markets to switch from gas to coal for power generation – a trend that would have been more pronounced if it had not been for the increase in the price of carbon emission allowances on the European market.”
    https://www.iea.org/news/statement-on-recent-developments-in-natural-gas-and-electricity-markets

  62. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Due to a clear downward trend in the strength of the solar magnetic field, which may continue for decades, a change in past weather patterns is to be expected. This is due to the strong ionization of the lower stratosphere due to the increase in galactic radiation and the decrease in ozone production in the upper stratosphere. North America will be subject to greater circulation changes in winter as the geomagnetic field over North (and South) America weakens.

  63. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The relationship between climate parameters and the Earth’s magnetic field has been described by many authors. However, the lack of a viable mechanism to explain this relationship has hindered progress in this field of research. Based on instrumental observations, we reveal a spatial-temporal correlation between key geomagnetic field structures, Earth’s surface air temperature and pressure fields, ozone, and specific humidity near the tropopause. We propose the following chain of causal relationships as one plausible explanation for these correlations: (1) modulation of the intensity and depth of penetration of energetic particles (galactic cosmic rays (GCRs)) in the Earth’s atmosphere by the geomagnetic field; (2) perturbation of ozone density near the tropopause under the influence of GCRs; (3) temperature change near the tropopause due to the high absorption capacity of ozone; (4) the adjustment of the static stability of the extratropical upper troposphere, and consequently the specific humidity, to the modified tropopause temperature; and (5) the change of the surface air temperature due to the increase/decrease of the water vapor greenhouse effect.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281441974_Geomagnetic_Field_and_Climate_Causal_Relations_with_Some_Atmospheric_Variables

  64. While there may be a link between solar variability and polar surface pressure – there are other factors. Low solar activity is connected with polar storm fronts moving into lower latitudes. Yet the polar annular mode indices have been moving positive in recent decades. It’s a puzzle that is not solved – and isn’t that what science is about?

    https://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2019/02/lam-2013-geopotential-at-polaes.png
    http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/507981/1/grl52088.pdf

  65. The polar jet stream is located at the top of the troposphere between the polar atmospheric circulation cell and the Ferrel cell.

    http://www.eumetrain.org/data/5/569/media/images/jet_stream/fig2.jpg

    The polar vortices extend from the surface to the stratosphere and are caused by planetary rotation and modulated by polar surface pressure. High polar surface pressure causes the polar front to move into lower latitudes bringing with it cold and storms. More polar storm excursions into lower latitudes – caused by higher polar surface pressure whatever the mechanism – is associated with low solar activity. There are a number of proposed mechanisms and none are scientifically definitive.

    e.g. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001/meta

    Although highly variable the polar annular mode indices have been showing lower polar pressure (more positive indices) in recent decades suggesting that something other than solar variability is responsible.

  66. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Large effects of solar variability related to the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC) are seen in the stratosphere, but only if the data are grouped according to the phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation). New results based on an extended, 66-year long data set fully confirm earlier findings and suggest a significant effect of the SSC on the occurrence of the Major Midwinter Warmings (MMWs) over the Arctic as well as on the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and on the mean meridional circulation. By means of teleconnections the dynamical interaction between the Arctic and the Tropics in the stratosphere and in the troposphere is shown for the whole data set and compared with the anomalies of single events. The results suggest strongly that dur- ing the northern winter the teleconnections between the Arctic and the Tropics were determined by the MMWs and the undisturbed, cold winters, respectively. These events in the stratosphere depend, however, on the 11-year SSC and on the QBO. The stratosphere is least disturbed during the northern summer when the interannual vari- ability is small. And if the different phases of the QBO are introduced, a large solar signal is found in the eastphase of the QBO (more than two standard deviations). It is shown that the QBO not only modulates the solar signal on the decadal scale, but that the QBO is itself modulated by the solar variability.
    https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo_wind.jpg
    During solar minima the so-called “Holton-Tan Relationship”is valid for bothphases of the QBO: In the QBO-eastphase the Arctic is relatively warm, with frequentMMWs, while during the westphase cold polar vortices dominate. However, during solar maxima the situation is reversed, especially during the westphase of the QBO. New results based on an extended, 66-year long data set fully confirm our earlier 276 K. Labitzke and M. KunzeFig. findings and suggest a significant effect of the SSC on the occurrence of the MajorMidwinter Warmings (MMWs) as well as on the strenght of the stratospheric polarvortex and on the mean meridional circulation.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237105625_Variability_in_the_stratosphere_The_sun_and_the_QBO

  67. Over on the other side of the pond, it is funny in a dark sort of way to see how big a sacrifice in terms of financial loss and number of economic trash-people freezing or starving to death, Europe is willing to pay, in order to protect their sacred right to regard gas from Russia’s Nordstream 2 as racially impure. Quite a lot I would guess, if past form is anything to go by. How are stockpiles of coffins looking? If it’s so important for America that Europe continue treating Russians as untermenschen, and their gas as racially impure, maybe they can help out by shipping over a few million coffins of nice American wood?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58650634

  68. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The current apparent increase in geomagnetic activity may result in more rapid movement of tropical storms in the Atlantic toward North America.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

  69. It’s not science, but it’s important:

    Murdoch’s News Corp has spent the past 15 years mitigating its own climate risk while giving media outlets like Fox News carte blanche to deny climate change altogether.

    https://archive.ph/hKeGJ#selection-877.0-877.169

    • Geoff Sherrington

      Willard claims significance for – “including a front-page story about an industry report claiming the policy would cost 23,000 resource sector jobs. And it worked: Australian Parliament eventually voted against Rudd’s carbon-reduction effort”
      What is your motivation to publicize incorrect post-mortem versions of the real story?
      I was there, living through this Retired from managing government relations for a major Aust company, still connected to real players behind National policy development.
      People voted against this because first, Rudd was showing himself as an untrusty leftie with odd ideas, plus people did not want to pay more $$$ for electricity and plus a polled majority repeatedly put global warming on the bottom of their worry list. Geoff S

      • > Willard claims

        If you want a claim to put words in my mouth, Geoff, try this one:

        Murdoch’s News Corp has spent the past 15 years mitigating its own climate risk while giving media outlets like Fox News carte blanche to deny climate change altogether.

        Anyone who read your comments (I now don’t because of they reach diminishing returns quickly) can guess where you lie on the political spectrum and should not be surprised by how you are putting words in my mouth.

      • Geoff Sherrington

        Willard,
        Did you or did you not post that quote because you could claim that it had significance?
        Question: What words did I put in your mouth? Answer: None. Geoff S

      • Geoff,

        Here’s what I think is significant:

        What few people knew during all this is that the parent company of these Australian news outlets, Murdoch’s News Corporation, actually thought carbon pricing was a good idea.

        I don’t mind much your hypocrisy.

        I mind Rupert’s.

    • In my 24 years of following climate science, i have only discovered a few people who claimed the climate was not changing, and they were only referring to a short period of time. No one I heard on Fox News in the past 24 years ever claimed our planet’s climate never changes.

      Willard, you are a typical leftist, misrepresenting people who have actually studied climate science, by distorting what they have said, so you can criticize them. You ought to be ashamed of yourself, but won’t be, because for a leftist, lying in support of a leftist goal is tolerated.

      • Richard,

        You’re wasting your spit. I already have “but the climate is always changing” in my Bingo. That’s just silly ridicule.

        None of what you said addresses Rupert’s hypocrisy.

      • joe - the non climate scientist

        Richard Greene | September 25, 2021 at 12:23 pm | Reply
        In my 24 years of following climate science, i have only discovered a few people who claimed the climate was not changing,”

        Richard – what do you mean ? – there is a whole industry of people claiming there is a straight shaft on the HS until circa 1850, including willard, and company. they got all those cherrypicked proxies proving it.

      • > including willard

        Let me call your bluff, Joe.

        Quote me.

      • Nature makes ice and melts ice to maintain a constant surface temperature of the earth. When the ice shelf is completely gone, the oceans will recede. Then the next ice age will begin.
        That will be in about 120,000 years.

    • ‘Hypocrisy’ is endemic these days.

      “The bottom line: The number of ballots impacted by discrepancies far exceeds Biden’s margin of victory in the state. Both sides of this debate will claim the report validates their position, but in truth, without proper vetting of the impacted ballots, we’ll never know if the election results were legitimate.”

      A little anonymous press quote about the Arizona election audit which, like so much of our current difficulties with information vis-à-vis misinformation, hangs an official report in the air and perhaps demonstrates how little ‘we’ care about doing things properly these days be it an official election, climate change understanding and sensible policy, or even dealing with a pesky viral pandemic in real time.

      If we cannot be bothered to get democracy and its results fit for purpose then what is the point of it? If we cannot be bothered to get climate change causes and mitigation policy fit for purpose then what is the point of it? If we cannot be bothered to get viral epidemic public health policy and action fit for purpose then what is the point of it?

      Perhaps we need to get some morality back into human life and fast and begin to share the common ground there is among all those who like to see things done properly because otherwise they are not worth doing.

      • melitamegalithic

        Hypocrisy – linked to a many flavoured self serving dogma- was from long past one of the tools for survival (of the smartest) of the ‘naked ape’.

        However re ‘If we cannot be bothered to get democracy and its results fit for purpose then what is the point of it?’, this kind of faulty democracy is still a better option than several of the social control/regulation systems that have existed in the past, and may still do to this day.

        A little delving into history is enough for a taste of what it has been and what it could be, in both religious and secular forms. Both I find distinctly distasteful.

      • Just Asking Questions about an unevidenced conspiracy theory that is unrelated to AGW might not be the best way to epilogue on hypocrisy, Lass. There might be some connection between how Newscorp treats that conspiracy theory and AGW, however. For instance:

        News Corp has meticulously documented its own carbon footprint since 2006 and sought to “take a leadership role on the issue of climate change” by reducing it, according to hundreds of pages of publicly available documents reviewed by VICE News.

        https://archive.ph/hKeGJ#selection-1059.175-1059.420

        It might be interesting to know if Newscorp really believes in the conspiracy theories they sell, or if they exploit troglodytes like you by throwing red meat and Just Asking Questions.

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