by Judith Curry
Happy New Year everyone! My ‘prognostications’, hopes and goals for 2018.
Well 2017 was quite a year, as the U.S. and rest of the world adapted to President Trump. It was quite a year for me personally also, my first year of retirement from university.
Prognostications (and hopes)
I won’t attempt to summarize 2017, but I will take a crack at a few prognostications, just for fun and to stimulate dialogue on these topics.
U.S. politics: I’m predicting that the midterm (2018) elections will not be particularly ‘partisan’, but rather the best candidates will be elected, with ‘character’ a major factor. Both the Republican and Democratic parties are in disarray. This is an opportunity for post partisanship in U.S. politics, and maybe some good candidates will be elected to the Senate and House.
Climate politics: I predict that in 2018 the climate dialogue in the U.S. will be dominated by litigation against federal and state governments and petroleum companies. The ‘blame game.’ President Trump will continue to ignore the issue, other than to troll the warmists whenever the weather in the US goes counter to the ‘alarm.’
Climate solutions: I predict that internationally, governments will re-prioritize providing reliable power in the face of extreme cold events. There will be a growing realization that we don’t have ‘solutions’ to the problem of bringing CO2 emissions down to zero in the near term. The focus will turn towards technological innovation and adaptation.
2018 climate: I predict that global average 2018 surface temperatures won’t be ‘top five’, i.e. cooler than the last few years. A cold winter for most of the U.S. (east of the Rockies). I predict an above normal, active Atlantic hurricane season. I predict that we will continue to see recovering sea ice extent in the Atlantic sector, with continued low sea ice extent in the Pacific sector (the stadium wave marches on).
Feminism: I predict (and hope) the U.S. movement to empower females will move away from playing the victim card and focus on bodies (e.g. pussy hats), and towards true empowerment where all females can strive to reach their own ambitious goals. I would also like to see a focus on the plight of truly oppressed females in the middle east, particularly Iran, and support for their basic freedoms.
My main goals are:
Continue to build my business Climate Forecast Applications Network, with research focused on sub seasonal, seasonal and interannual prediction. Working with new clients on decadal and century scale climate issues.
Adapt to my retirement: less travel and more time for carving out things I want to do. More focus on health – my right hand is now at about 60% functionality (don’t ask me to chop an onion, etc).
More time for the blog and writing in general. Which is of course competing with the above two items. I will be tackling the ‘detection and attribution’ issue in a series of posts (first one will be posted later this week). Fingers crossed that I will have time to do what I hope to accomplish here. I will also be posting things that I am working on for clients — I was planning a series on sea level rise, but got sidelined with my neck/shoulder/arm/hand issue (this series is still in play).
Here’s to a healthy, happy and productive 2018!